Monday, March 18, 2024

ICT Draw on Liquidity | Darya Filipenka

Liquidity is the lifeblood of the markets. Liquidity is what allows anyone to buy or sell for a profit or a loss. It is what creates opportunity in the markets. While liquidity may not hold much significance for a retail trader, it is of paramount importance to big players who must carefully consider it in order to execute positions successfully. In an non-liquid market there are few buyers and sellers, and trades may take longer to complete, and prices can be more volatile. To help you better understand what liquidity is, I have drawn some simple diagram. It illustrates why we refer to certain levels as 'liquidity'. The point is not that the models themselves are liquidity, but that when a certain price model appears, liquidity is attracted at key levels and price points.


So what is the use of liquidity for us traders? Good question. Liquidity helps us determine where the price is likely to go next. You can learn to trade only using liquidity levels, it's not difficult, but the risks and potential profits will not be so attractive. In order to get a high-quality trading idea, using the liquidity, you need to apply the market structure on the Higher Time Frames, order blocks, and Premium/Discount zones. This helps to understand what kind of liquidity will attract the price and where we should enter into the trade and where we should exit.


How to identify the Draw on Liquidity (DOL): As a day trader, the DOL can be PWH/PWL (Previous Week High/Low), PDH/L (Previous Day High/Low), or session High/Low from Asia, London, or New York paired with EQH/EQL (Equal Highs/Lows) with a Low Resistance Liquidity Run (LRLR) condition. EQH/EQL (Equal Highs/Lows) are large pools of liquidity so institutions will always draw towards those levels to take out retail.

How do I find the next Draw on Liquidity? First thing, price is always either re-balancing or taking liquidity. Price is going from Premium/Discount array to P/D array. Hence, you must annotate your P/D zones to know If price re-balanced or will re-balance, you must also annotate your liquidity and P/D arrays. To find the next draw on liquidity, you can follow a displacement, use the reaction on a P/D array.

External range liquidity refers to the buy side liquidity above the range high and sell side liquidity below the range low in the current trading range. It Is associated with liquidity runs that seek to pair orders with pending order liquidity, which is in the form of a liquidity pool. External range liquidity runs can be low resistance or high resistance in nature. As a trader, you want your trades to be In low resistance conditions, meaning you don't want any resistance in your path of profitability. While Internal Range Liquidity is the liquidity inside the defined range (External Range Liquidity), This could be In form of any institutional reference that we can use as entry such as order blocks, fair value gaps, volume imbalance, and more.
 
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ICT Liquidity Runs | Michael J. Huddleston

As price action traders, we're looking specifically for reference points where there is a high probability of liquidity resting in the marketplace. Related to ICT concepts, liquidity relates to buy orders and sell orders. It's as simple as that.

Below old lows, the market will seek liquidity for the sell side or the sell stops, taking orders out. Understanding this premise, when we view price action, it removes all of the retail-minded perspective but heavily leaning on indicator-based ideas. When we adopt these principles with study of price, it gives us the  truest and purest view of how price is delivered.

We have no confidence or direct relationship to our directional bias on price relative to anything except for price itself. If the market is moving from an old high, we know that there is going to be liquidity resting above that old high. If the market is moving from an old low, we know there is going to be a rest liquidity below those lows. It is just that simple. 
 
LRLR = Low Resistance Liquidity Run
HRLR = High Resistance Liquidity Run

As a trader you want to be trading when there is LRLR conditions because during LRLR conditions price will cleanly deliver to your target a lot quicker than HRLR conditions. If you're in a trade a lot longer than expected it is most likely because you are in HRLR conditions.

A LRLR will have clean highs or lows and for this example it means there's a large pool of liquidity resting above the Clean Highs/EQHs. This is where retail traders are placing their stops and smart money will look to take out these stops.


Another way you can look at LRLR is if there are EQH/Ls & multiple highs/lows lined up in a row (Trendline Liquidity). This is what #TheStrat traders call Pivot Machine Gun (PMG). It's called PMG because the algorithm spools higher like a machine gun triggering stop losses to get taken out.
 


So in this example, after SSL got raided, you're looking to go long inside of the FVG within the BPR to target the EQH. This is LRLR conditions.
 


When you have EQH/L, any PD arrays in-between where price is currently at to the EQH/L will have a low probability of holding. Smart money will target the largest liquidity pool which will be the EQH/EQL so price will either go through the PD array, or consolidate at the PD array then continue in the direction of the EQH/L. Now we will look at an example of HRLR. Typically with HRLR conditions there will be a stop hunt (fu) on buyside or sellside liquidity. Once there's a stop hunt it will leave a Point of Interest (POI) / PD array which is typically an orderblock or fair value gap.
 


Because there's a stop hunt (fu) which leaves a POI, the POI will act as resistance which will make it a HRLR condition. So in this example, instead of going long at the lows to target the high formed from (fu), I'd rather wait for price to reject off the POI to look for shorts.
 

1st pic below is M15 timeframe, 2nd pic below is H1 timeframe. You will see a M15 fu raid on BSL which leaves an H1 bearish orderblock making it HRLR. After the fu raid price went lower and when it retraced back up it rejected the orderblock then started to take out internal SSL.
 
 
 
HRLR conditions can also happen when indices ( $ES $NQ $YM ) is not in sync with each other or when it's not in moving inversely to $DXY (dollar). $GU & $EU are supposed to move inversely w/ $DXY as well so if they're moving together it is HRLR conditions.

Reference:
 
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ICT Algorithmic Price Delivery & Time Macros Intro | Darya Filipenka

Algorithmic macros are short lists of directives that trading algorithms follow to seek out liquidity and inefficiencies in the market. These macros are like a fishing rod, casting out into the market to identify and capture opportunities. These price action segments typically occur in 20 minute intervals. They involve a set of instructions that algorithms use to search for liquidity or market inefficiencies. They focus mainly on the first 20, 30, or 40 minutes of the trading hour, which starts at 9:30 EST/EDT.


The macro between 9:50 and 10:10 am is a time window where the algorithm starts its run for liquidity. One important aspect to note is the role of macros or specific time windows in the market. These macros provide us with valuable insights into when the market is likely to exhibit certain behaviors, such as running for liquidity or inefficiency.

The period between 10:50 am and 11:10 am marks the end of the 10:00 am to 11:00 em hour, which ls the first 90 minutes of trading. This transition from the morning session to the New York lunch period often leads to consolidation or a reversal in the market. Traders can anticipate this consolidation of reversal and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.

To effectively utilize algorithmic macros, traders need to analyze the daily chart and identify key levels (Order Block (OB), Breaker Block (BB), Fair Value Gap (FVG), etc.). In the given context, the ICT mentions a daily bullish order block. This order block consists of the high, the wick, and the opening of the daily propulsion block. Additionally, the ICT highlights the importance of fair value gaps within order blocks. These gaps represent areas of inefficiency or liquidity in the market.

In the world of trading. there are certain events that have a significant impact on market performance. One such event is the non-farm Payroll release. This event, which occurs on a monthly basic, provides crucial data on the number of jobs added or lost in the United States, excluding the farming industry. The non-farm payroll release is closely watched by traders and investors as it provides insights into the strength of the economy and can potentially move the markets. When the data is released, it often triggers orally or a decline in prices, depending on whether the numbers are better or worse than expected. During a non-farm payroll event, we can observe & specific pattern in price action. The market typically experiences sn initial rally, followed by s retracement or a drop to take out stops. This retracement is a strategic move to shake out traders who entered the market based on the initial rally. After the retracement, the market often resumes its upward trajectory.
 
Reference: 
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Saturday, March 16, 2024

Sun - Earth - Man | Theodor Landscheidt

The unanimous message of mystics of all ages that all entities in the universe are interconnected and constitute an indivisible whole is proven now by unequivocal physical experiments that have been replicated again and again. From this undeniable unity, connectedness, and inseparability follows that any action or configuration in any distant part of the universe can influence processes in the Solar System inhabited by Man. This is also valid for the interrelations of Sun and planets within the Solar System and especially the Earth's connections with other cosmic bodies in the solar environment.

 » The whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. 
We have assumed that each stellar system in evolution throws off electric corpuscles into space. 
It does not seem unreasonable therefore to think that the greater part of the material 
masses in the universe is found, not in the solar systems or nebulae, but in 'empty' space. «
Kristian Birkeland, 1913.

To look at the solar system and its constituent parts as a whole that embraces a complex web of holistic interrelations, is a premise of traditional astrology, which seemed antiquated, but turns out to be trend-setting. Thus, it appears promising to subject the astrological thesis of an influence of celestial bodies on the Earth and life on its surface to a new test. The quality of the astrological body of theses matches the holistic results of modern research, as it represents the archetype of an integrating science. Astrology of this brand was a historical reality in the era of Kepler, Galileo and Newton. It is well known that Kepler was both an astrologer and one of the creative founders of modern science. Book IV of his principle work Harmonices Mundi (1619) with the heading Book on Metaphysics, Psychology, and Astrology is evidence of this, as well as his papers De fundamentis astrologiae certioribus (1602) and De stella nova (1604). Those who pretend that Kepler was not really engaged in astrology should read these writings.

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Friday, March 15, 2024

S&P 500 Index vs 18.61 Year Lunar Node Cycle │ March - April 2024

 
» I’m not trying to predict the future; I am trying to accurately and quickly depict the present. 
I’m not trying to predict what people will do, but rather identify what they are doing right now. «  
Chris Camillo, 2023
 
 
See also:
Previous Projections.
TPR (2015) - S&P 500 vs True Lunar Node's Speed and the Eclipse Crash Window.
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Thursday, March 14, 2024

Bitcoin weekly high probable by next week | Robert Miner

Any decline should be lasting 6-8 weeks.
 
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Happy Pi Day | Martin A. Armstrong

Perhaps it was my fate or destiny since I grew up in Maple Shade, New Jersey, with the house address of 314 South Lippincott Avenue. What a coincidence.
 
 
When I discovered that list of international panics and divided simply 26 into 224 years, it came out with 8.6153. Multiply that by 365 days = 3,144. Suddenly, the accuracy of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) made sense – it was Pi, the magic number that the Egyptians even used to build the Pyramids.
 
 
See also:
 
  2024.350  =  2024 May 07 (Tue)  =  Major High
 [The ECM does not track or forecast individual financial instruments, securities, or markets.]
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A Lunar Chaos Theory | Al Larson

As the planets orbit the sun, they exert tidal forces upon the gases of the gun, much as the moon raises tides on the earth. The equation below describes these forces. Numerical solution of this equation reveals that Jupiter, Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, and Saturn are the most Influential, in that order. In Figure 1 shows this tidal effect caused by planets 1 and 2 rotating a gaseous portion of the sun's surface. These gas swirls cause several solar effects, including sun spots, coronal holes, and solar flares. All these effects combine to vary the amount of radiation that leaves the sun.
 

This solar radiation travels toward the earth in two ways, as direct radiation, such as sunshine and radio waves, and as particles, carried by the solar wind. This flow of charged particles forms a torrent of energy that blast spaceship earth, creating a bow wave and a wake just as a boat going upstream would do. This bow shock wave forms a magneto-pause between the earth and the sun. It interacts with the earth's magnetic field, shaping and adding energy to it. At the north and south poles, the charged particles follow the magnetic lines of force, and enter our atmosphere in a Polar Cap Absorption Event. This leads to the auroral oval, producing our Northern and Southern Lights.

The bow wave also creates an envelope about the earth, called the magnetosphere. As the solar wind flows past the earth, the magnetosphere forms a teardrop shaped envelope of trapped particles, ending in the magneto-tail. It is inside this envelope that the moon orbits. As the solar radiation varies, so does the earth's magnetic field, atmospheric ionization, and temperature. Scientists have tracked down a host of relationships between these events and a variety of earthly phenomena such as climate, weather, crime rates, plant growth rates, frequency of thunderstorms, blood PH levels, psychiatric emergencies, etc.  My own work has related these events to market action as well.


I believe there is also a third mechanism at work, one involving the moon. Let me explain: The moon's orbit is the most complex of all the ten bodies under consideration. While a planet's position may be accurately computed from an equation containing about nine or so terms, computing the moon's location to the same accuracy requires over 100 terms. Some of these terms are directly traceable to the pull of various planets and the sun on the moon. For example, there is a term related to Venus, our closest planetary neighbor. All these terms still do not describe a stable orbit, but one that rotates slowly In space, coming back to the same orientation in about 18.6 years. This is the moon's nodal cycle. Most people are familiar with the moon's full moon, new moon, or synodic cycle of 29.531 days. Many have tried to correlate it with market movements. The moon has many other cycles. It moves closer to and further from the earth, in what is the moon’s anomalistic cycle, which ls 27.554 days long. As the moon passes through the ecliptic plane (the plane of the earth's orbit) it crosses at its node, to form the moon's draconic cycle of 27.212 days (so named by the ancient Chinese who viewed this cycle as having the power of a dragon). Further, as the moon passes the earth’s equator, it forms the lunar tropical cycle of 27.321 days. There is also the motion from star to star, which is the sidereal cycle, of 27.322 days. Additionally, since the moon's orbit tips approximately 5 degrees, the observer on earth sees the moon 'ride high' or 'ride low' as it revolves in its orbit. The venerable Farmer’s Almanac points out the effect of this on tides, weather, and earthquakes.

I have, I believe, discovered another lunar cycle that I call the lunar chaos cycle. Figure 2 shows this cycle pictorially. My theory is that as the moon rides high and low, and moves closer and further from the earth, that the moon crosses the boundary between the ionized particles trapped in the moon's wake and the fast flowing solar wind. Figure 2 shows this possibly happening at two full moon positions (1 and 2) and two new moon positions (3 and 4). Such boundary crossings would lead to sharp disturbances in the earth’s magnetic field, affecting those of us who live within it.

A further perturbation can be theorized as well. This is the perturbation of the nearby planets Mercury and Venus. When the moon balances on the edge of the magneto-pause, a chaotic balance point exits. Either interior planet can tug the moon into the solar wind, tipping the balance just as Lorenz's Butterfly Effect tips the balance in weather.

[...] While at first it may be hard for the average buyer or seller of stocks and commodities to accept that his fortunes are controlled by a burning ball of gas and ten pieces of revolving rock, this study presents scientific evidence that this indeed may be true. The theory of lunar chaos does provide a rational explanation of possible cause and effect. The statistics of correlation, while they do not 'prove' the theory correct, are sufficiently strong to permit one to claim that this theory is possible.
 
Quoted from:
Al Larson a.k.a. Dr. Hans Hannula (1991) - A Lunar Chaos Theory.
In: Cycles, January/February 1991, Foundation of the Study of Cycles.
 
See also:
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The Physics of the Seasonal Cycle | Al Larson

Any grade-school pupil can tell you when the seasons begin. In the northern hemisphere, generally, spring begins March 21, while summer begins June 21. Autumn begins September 23, and winter begins December 21. Actual dates may vary by one day in a particular year. So step one is simple.
 
The physical reason behind the seasonal cycle is the tilt of the Earth's axis. The 23.5-degree tilt of the Earth's axis causes more direct heating of the northern hemisphere in the summer, when the Earth tilts toward the sun. It causes less heating in the winter, when the Earth tilts away from the sun. This change in heating and cooling causes the seasonal weather patterns that we are familiar with.

 Charged particles from the sun form a teardrop-shaped envelope about the globe called magnetosphere.
 
Not so well known is the effect of the seasonal variation on the Earth's geomagnetic field. As the sun emits energy, charged particles flow outward, carried by the solar wind. As these particles sweep past Earth, they form a teardrop-shaped envelope around the globe called the magnetosphere.

There is a seasonal variation in two important parts of the magnetosphere. When the Earth tilts toward the sun in the summer, the charged particles can more directly flow into the north pole, where they affect the Earth's magnetic field. This effect is lessened when the Earth tilts away from the sun in the winter.
 
The second magnetic effect is on the magneto-tail, that part of the magnetosphere which streams away from the sunny side of the Earth. As the Earth tilts toward the sun, this tail "rides higher." As the Earth tilts away from the sun, the tail "rides lower." This affects how our moon, which moves in and out of the magnetosphere, interacts with the Earth's magnetic field.


So what does this have to do with stocks and commodities? Scientific evidence suggests that these fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field affect humans. Studies show that magnetic field changes are linked to blood PH changes, which in turn cause mood swings. Perhaps the psychological mood swings of traders are also subject to these magnetic field changes.
 
More obviously, the seasonal cycle could be expected to affect crop prices, such as those of wheat, corn and other commodities. Similarly, with most businesses running on a quarterly profit cycle, seasonal variations in the buying and selling of materials and equipment can be expected. Thus, on both a fundamental and technical basis, a trader can expect season price variations in stocks and commodities.

To perform step 2, mark the dates of the cycle on a chart with solid dots, and place them above or below the price as you estimate that price is high or low relative to what it was approximately one-fourth cycle earlier. Points do not necessarily have to alternate between high and low. Now look for cycle "inversions." If two lows or highs occur in succession, the cycle has "inverted" between the points. A normal inversion point is halfway through the cycle.

Quoted from:
Al Larson (1991) - The Physics of the Seasonal Cycle.
 
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Mini-Crash in Tune with Cosmic Rhythms | Theodor Landscheidt

Solar eruptions and related geomagnetic storms can be predicted by means of major and minor instability events released by special solar systems configurations. Minor instability events occur when the Sun's Center of Mass (CS), the Solar Systems Center of Mass (CM), and Jupiter (JU) - the weighty center of the world of planets - arc in line (JU-CM-CS). Such configurations initiate strong impulses of torque in the Sun's orbital motion about the CM. JU-CM-CS events form cycles with a mean period of 9.275 years, but are subject to considerable variation in wavelength: it can be as short as two years, or as long as 14 years.
 
 
The above chart shows the relationship between the S&P 500's monthly index and Cycles of Minor and Major Solar System Instability Events: The short fat arrows indicate epochs of consecutive JU-CM-CS events that form cycles showing rather different wavelengths. Wide and narrow arrows as well as small arrows represent harmonics of respective cycles specified by indices.Indicators that coincide with maxima of the S&P 500 point upwards, while those that coincide with minima point downwards. After the long fat arrow that marks the epoch of a 'major instability event', the epochs of JU-CM-CS events and the second harmonic (= 1/2) of the respective cycles are correlated with bottoms in the data, and the fourth (= 1/4) and eigth (= 1/8) harmonics with tops. In the current JU-CM-CS cycle - running from October 31, 1982 (= 1982.83), to April 20, 1990 (= 1990.3) - the midpoints between the fourth and eighth harmonics, the sixteenth harmonics, were, in each case, related to bottoms in the data. The chart also shows the cosmic background of the famous 4-Year Cycle, and - this is crucial to predictions - hints to an explanation why it is sometimes longer or shorter. 


The next chart is an extension of the first one. The upper curve represents the DJIA, and its turning points are in phase with the arrows marking epochs of respective harmonics of the JU-CM-CS cycle. The last arrow matches the date of the mini-crash on October 13, 1989 - the biggest plunge of the stock market since the 1987 crash.
 
 
Quoted from:
Theodor Landscheidt (1989) - Mini-Crash in Tune with Cosmic Rhythms.
In: Cycles, November/December 1989, Foundation of the Study of Cycles.
 
See also:
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Cosmic Regulation of Cycles in Nature and Economy | Theodor Landscheidt

Let us try to find cycles in nature that can be understood and predicted - and, in addition, that are connected with human behavior, especially the economy. Planetary tide-generating forces, acting on the Sun, are a promising candidate. Hence, we shall try to find dependable cycles in the tide-generating forces of the planets that are linked to energetic solar eruptions and terrestrial effects, especially in the economy. Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, the so-called tidal planets, can be expected to exert a realizable trigger effect.
 
 
» The golden section seems to be implanted in man, too. Dürer, the famous painter, made a thorough investigation of proportions in the human body and found as many as 25 realizations of the "divine proportion," as the golden section is also called, Is this why there is also psychic response to this proportion? According to H. Read, the golden section has, for centuries, been regarded as a key to the mysteries of art. Aesthetically speaking, it is considered to have the most pleasing proportions. « 
 
 
 » Golden section patterns governing solar eruptions. «

 
 
 » There is a growing body of circumstantial evidence that strong solar eruptions are linked to the tidal cycle. That energetic solar flares have a strong impact on important terrestrial cycles. Hence, the tidal cycle, with an average duration of  118.5 days - equaling 16.9 weeks, or 3.9 months - should have left marks in the records. «
 
 
» My example is a cycle in stock prices which averages 14-3/4 days long, but which proceeds m a hop-skip fashion in waves that are first shorter than the average and then longer than the average, alternately. On the average, the shorter waves run about 13-1/4 days long, the longer waves about 16-1/4 days long... it should be obvious that ... forecasts made on a 13-1/4-, 16-1/4, 13-1/4, 16-1/4-day basis would be vastly superior to those made on a rigid 14-3/4-day basis, even though both time intervals would come out to the same place in the end. You will doubtless have noticed that one long and one short wave together equal 29-1/2 days — the time interval from one new moon to the next. « 
 
 
Quoted from:
Theodor Landscheidt (1990) - Cosmic Regulation of Cycles in Nature and Economy.
In: Proceedings, February 1990, Foundation of the Study of Cycles.
 
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Monday, March 11, 2024

Grand Sun-Jupiter-Uranus Conjunction on March 13, 2024 | SSGEOS

The grand Sun-Jupiter-Uranus conjunction on 13 March, 2024 (Wed) will uniquely coincide with additional conjunctions involving Mercury and Venus and also the Moon. This combination can result in large seismic activity, potentially reaching well over magnitude 8, most likely between 14 and 17 March.
 
 Solar System Geometry Index (SSGI) 10-19 March 2024.
 
 Very strong fluctuation - potential for major to great seismic event.

Reference:
Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGEOS) - Earthquake Forecast updated 10 March 2024, 16:18 UTC. 
SSGEOS (Mar 10, 2024) - Planetary & Seismic Update 10 March 2024 | GRAND CONJUNCTION (video)
Frank Hoogerbeets (2023) - Geometry and Dynamics of the Solar System.
SSGEOS @ Twitter/X 
TPR (Mar 01, 2024) - Cosmic Cluster Days | March - April 2024.
 Valentino Straser & Kazunori Miura (2020) - Electric Earthquakes? The case of Hyogo Ken Nambu (Japan).
John H. Nelson (1974) - Cosmic Patterns: Their Influence on Man and His Communication.
 
 
» The similarity between an electric generator with its carefully placed magnets and the sun with its ever-changing planets is intriguing. In the generator, the magnets are fixed and produce a constant electrical current. If we consider that the planets are magnets and the sun is the armature, we have a considerable similarity to the generator. «  
John H. Nelson, 1974.
 
Update March 14, 2024.
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