The Physics of the Seasonal Cycle | Al Larson

Any grade-school pupil can tell you when the seasons begin. In the northern hemisphere, generally, spring begins March 21, while summer begins June 21. Autumn begins September 23, and winter begins December 21. Actual dates may vary by one day in a particular year. So step one is simple.

 

The physical reason behind the seasonal cycle is the tilt of the Earth's axis. The 23.5-degree tilt of the Earth's axis causes more direct heating of the northern hemisphere in the summer, when the Earth tilts toward the sun. It causes less heating in the winter, when the Earth tilts away from the sun. This change in heating and cooling causes the seasonal weather patterns that we are familiar with.

 Charged particles from the sun form a teardrop-shaped envelope about the globe called magnetosphere.

 

Not so well known is the effect of the seasonal variation on the Earth's geomagnetic field. As the sun emits energy, charged particles flow outward, carried by the solar wind. As these particles sweep past Earth, they form a teardrop-shaped envelope around the globe called the magnetosphere.

There is a seasonal variation in two important parts of the magnetosphere. When the Earth tilts toward the sun in the summer, the charged particles can more directly flow into the north pole, where they affect the Earth's magnetic field. This effect is lessened when the Earth tilts away from the sun in the winter.
 

The second magnetic effect is on the magneto-tail, that part of the magnetosphere which streams away from the sunny side of the Earth. As the Earth tilts toward the sun, this tail "rides higher." As the Earth tilts away from the sun, the tail "rides lower." This affects how our moon, which moves in and out of the magnetosphere, interacts with the Earth's magnetic field.

So what does this have to do with stocks and commodities? Scientific evidence suggests that these fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field affect humans. Studies show that magnetic field changes are linked to blood PH changes, which in turn cause mood swings. Perhaps the psychological mood swings of traders are also subject to these magnetic field changes.
 

More obviously, the seasonal cycle could be expected to affect crop prices, such as those of wheat, corn and other commodities. Similarly, with most businesses running on a quarterly profit cycle, seasonal variations in the buying and selling of materials and equipment can be expected. Thus, on both a fundamental and technical basis, a trader can expect season price variations in stocks and commodities.

To perform step 2, mark the dates of the cycle on a chart with solid dots, and place them above or below the price as you estimate that price is high or low relative to what it was approximately one-fourth cycle earlier. Points do not necessarily have to alternate between high and low. Now look for cycle "inversions." If two lows or highs occur in succession, the cycle has "inverted" between the points. A normal inversion point is halfway through the cycle.

Quoted from:

Al Larson (1991) - The Physics of the Seasonal Cycle.

 

See also:

TPR (2012) - Moon & Markets.
TPR (2012) - Sun & Markets.

Al Larson (1997) - Energy Flow Theory & Financial Markets.  

Lunar Chaos Cycle | Al Larson

Al Larson (1991) - Basic Physical Mechanisms: Development of a physical theory of cycles begins with an examination of the solar systems construction. It is composed of ten very important chunks of rock that orbit a ball of burning gas, the sun. The nine planets and our moon are the big rocks. For eons, these rocks have proceeded relentlessly on their courses, carefully balancing the forces they exert on each other and on the sun, and vice versa.

 "Fully 76% of the Venus events coincided with highs and lows,
as did 84% of the Mercury events."

 

To date, two mechanisms have been proposed that could explain the effects of this system on earthly events. Theodor Landscheidt has presented many correlations between the solar system's center of mass and the outburst of solar flares. His theory states that, as the planets rotate, they shift the center of mass of the combined planet/sun system around. Al times, this center of mass actually moves outside the surface of the sun. As it passes the sun's surface, a chaotic boundary condition exists, resulting in outbursts of large solar fares [...] As the planets orbit the sun, they exert tidal forces on the sun's gases, much as the moon raises tides on the earth [...]  Jupiter, Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, and Saturn are the most influential, in that order. These gas swirls cause a number of solar effects, including sunspots, coronal holes, and solar flares. All these effects combine to vary the amount of radiation that leaves the sun. This solar radiation is carried toward the earth in two ways: 

1. as direct radiation, such as sunshine and radio-waves, and 
2. as particles carried by the solar wind. This flow of charged particles forms a torrent of energy that blasts spaceship earth, creating n bow wave and a wake, just as a boat going upstream would do.

This bow wave forms a magnetopause between the Earth and the Sun, and interacts with the earth’s magnetic field, both shaping it and adding energy to it. At the north and south poles, the charged particles follow the magnetic lines of force, and enter our atmosphere in what is called a Polar Cap Absorption Event. This leads to the auroral oval, producing our Northern and Southern Lights.

The bow wave also creates an envelope about the earth, called the magnetosphere. As the solar wind flows past the earth, the magnetosphere forms a teardrop-shaped envelope of trapped particles that ends in what is called the magnetotail. It is inside this envelope that the moon orbits.

As the solar radiation varies, so does the earth's magnetic field, atmospheric ionization, and temperature. Scientists have tracked down a host of relationships between these events and a variety of earthly phenomena such as climate, weather, crime rates, plant growth rates, frequency of thunderstorms, blood PH levels, psychiatric emergencies, etc. My own work has related these events to market action as well. I believe a third mechanism that involves the moon also is at work . 

 

A Theory of Lunar Chaos: I believe I have discovered another lunar cycle, which I call the “lunar chaos cycle.” My theory is that, as the moon rides high and low and moves closer and further from the earth, it crosses the boundary between the ionized particles trapped in the moon's wake and the fast-flowing solar wind. The figure at left shows boundary crossings at two full-moon positions (1 and 2) and two new-moon positions (3 and 4). Such boundary crossings would lead to sharp disturbances in the earth's magnetic eld, which would affect those of us who live within it. A further perturbation can be theorized, as well- the perturbation of the nearby planets, Mercury and Venus. When the moon's balanced on the edge of the magnetopause, a chaotic balance point exists. Either interior planet can tug the moon into the solar wind, tipping the balance just as Lorenz's Butterfly Effect tips the balance in weather patterns.

A Simple Mathematical Model: To test this theory, I created a simple mathematical model. This model computes the degree of exact alignment of a planet (either Mercury or Venus) with the Earth and Moon, and when the Moon is above or below 3° inclination. This yields a lunar chaos input function for each planet [see chart above].