Showing posts with label US-Stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US-Stocks. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 14, 2022

The Mercury-Stats | Jack Gillen

Jack Gillen (2002) - Mercury goes retrograde approximately three times a year and causes a state of confusion, and after it goes back direct the market can explode into a bear or bullish market.
 
Mercury Retrograde

[...] in those years when Mercury is retrograding there is an 85 percent chance that the DJIA price at the time it goes direct will be higher than when it was retrograding. The same is true when Mercury is retrograding in the sign of Capricorn, which holds the same accuracy rate as the ten-year cycle from 1885. In the Mercury retrograde period, those dates in bold print have a 70 - 80 percent accuracy of having a higher Dow Jones price at the end of the retrograde cycle.

Quoted from:
Jack Gillen (2002) - AstroStats for the New York Stock Exchange.
 
See also:
Jack Gillen (2009) - The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange (2nd Ed.).
AstroSeek.com (2022) - Retrograde Planets 2022. 

Tuesday, December 13, 2022

The Sun-Stats | Jack Gillen

Jack Gillen (2002) - There are only two statistics related to the Sun falling into the group of the 70 - 100 percent accuracy. They were both activated in the United States chart on July 4, 1776, and the natal Sun is at 13-degrees of Cancer. On July 5th of every year the Sun transits 13-degrees of Cancer. This cycle has an orb of 13 - 22 degrees of Cancer, and the transit dates would be from July 7 - 15 each year. The price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be higher on the 15th then on the 7th, and from the period of 1987 - 2001 this trend was 86.6 percent accurate with an overall percentage of 72.8.

The next statistic has been 80 percent accurate over the past 100 years, and is based on the two degrees of Venus in the United States chart to the opposition of Capricorn at two degrees, and is dominant from December 24th - 31st. This is a long position, therefore the DJIA will be higher on the 31st than on the 24th. Since the period of 1900 - 2000, this pattern has only been wrong 20 times and this was in 1911, 1925, 1926, 1930, 1937, 1943, 1947, 1948, 1953, 1966, 1968, 1978, 1979, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1992, 1996, and 1998. Therefore, going long on December 24th, I know that I have an 80 percent chance of being correct, that on December 31st the market will be higher at the close.


[...] The New York Stock Exchange was born on May 17, 1792, at 8:52 am in New York under the Sun sign of Taurus. None of the Zodiac signs which the Sun transits falls into the 70 - 100 percent accuracy rate. The two highest are Pisces from February 19 - March 19, having a 63.33 percent accuracy over the past 50 years, and Capricorn from December 22 - January 20, having a 60.27 percent accuracy rate. Let’s look at some of the averages for the other Sun signs: Aquarius, January 21 - February 18, 54.50 percent; Aries, March 20 - April 19, 58.50 percent; Taurus, April 20 - May 20, 50 percent; Gemini, May 21 - June 20, the chance that the DJIA will be higher on the June 20th than on the 21st is only 48.48 percent; Cancer, June 21 - July 21, has 51.20 percent; Leo, July 22 - August 22, only 46.60 percent the lowest of all the zodiac signs; Virgo, August 23 - September 22, it is 52.27 percent; Libra, September 23 - October 22, has 52.70 percent; Scorpio, October 23 - November 21, is 51.50 percent; Sagittarius, November 22 - December 21, is 57.25.

Sun Transit from November 17 to May 17


Although these Zodiac signs don’t qualify for the 70 - 100 percent accuracy rate it does create another pattern that fits into this 70 - 100 percent group, and this is called trading with the opposition aspect. The opposition of Taurus is Scorpio, and on November 17th every year this would represent the opposite date. Therefore, if you are trading on the long side at the closing price of November 17th to the closing price of May 17th, chances are that you are going to be correct. If you are trading on the short side, you might want to trade from the date of the NYSE on May 17th, and short to the closing of November 17th. The period of 1980 - 2001, you would have been 81.08 percent correct on the long side from November 17th - May 17th, as only four out of the last 22 years did the Dow Jones not show a profit.
 

Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Bearish Forecast for US Stocks Indexes | Sergey Ivanov

Sergey Ivanov (Nov 30, 2022) - We have two kind of very effective projection lines for the indexes: Self-Similarity vs 2008 year and Fixed Cycles Composite Line. As you can see they suggest an extreme bearish scenario for the next 1.5 months. If it already started or we have some additional expected bullish bounces is answered by temporal cycles projection lines. 

 

See also:

Friday, October 14, 2022

Periods When to Make Money | Benner Cycle Projection into 2023 Major Low

Samuel Benner was a prosperous American farmer wiped out financially by the 1873 panic and a hog cholera epidemic. In retirement, he set about to establish the causes and timing of fluctuations in the economy. 
 
Edward R. Dewey (1967):
» If you had used these dates for trading, your percentage gains between 1872 and 1939
would have been 50 times your losses!
«

In 1875 he published a book called
"Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices" forecasting commodity prices for the period 1876 to 1904. Many - not all - of these forecasts were fairly accurate. The Benner Cycle includes:
  • A (upper line): "Years in which Panics have occurred and will occur again." A 54 year cycle alternating every 18, 20 and 16 years.
  • B (middle line): "Years of Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds." Cycles alternating every 8, 9 and 10 years.
  • C (lower line): "Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a good time to buy Stocks, 'Corner Lots', Goods, etc, and hold till the 'Boom' reaches the years of good times; then unload". A 27 year cycle in pig iron prices with lows every 7, 11, 9 years and peaks in the order 8, 9, 10 years (B - middle line).
Benner's cycle projections align with the latest analysis of the "Foundation for the Study of Cycles" and are pointing to a major stock market low in the US in 2023. David Hickson's Hurst cycle analysis projects this low to March of 2023 and Martin Armstrong to April 11, 2023 (Tue).
 
» Periods When to Make Money « ; the original business card of George Tritch Hardware Co.
Apparently, the diagram was compiled by George Tritch in 1872, but was not attributed to
him by Samuel Benner in 1875.
 
References:
 

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

Astrological Methods of Forecasting the DJIA | Carol S. Mull

Carol S. Mull (1989) - Humankind moves through periods of optimism, expansion, anxiety, depression and panic, as dictated by the magnetic winds that govern the universe. These cycles affect market trading and can be forecast by observing and analyzing planetary phenomena. There are at least twenty different planetary, solar, or lunar movements that affect the market in a significant way. I know of no computer program that utilizes more than five or six of them. Below is a summary of the most useful, listed from those with the shortest effect through those lasting decades.
 
Cafe Astrology .com - This Month’s Ephemeris

A FEW HOURS OR MINUTES
Planet to Midheaven: You may have noticed that the DIJA will move up or down at about the same time each day for a week or more. This is because the planet and its aspects that is directly overhead the market location at any given time-of-day will affect the mood of the trader. Hence, if Saturn is crossing the Midheaven of the New York Stock Exchange location of Manhattan Island in New York at about 1:00 p.m., the market may have opened up, but will tend to drop from noon until 1:00 p.m., and may then turn up again. This trend will continue for about a week, with the timing being a little later each day until it finally moves beyond the time of the market closing. Jupiter in the same position will bring a rise in market prices. Neptune over the market Midheaven will bring increased trading in oil stocks. Uranus over the Midheaven will produce an erratic market. 
 
Planetary Hours Calculator

I know a daytrader who runs an astrological chart on his computer every fifteen minutes for New York City and then acts accordingly. This planet-to-Midheaven indicator is good for the hourly wobbles in the market and should always be considered against the general trend. 
 
Solar, Lunar and Planets Ephemerides - Rise - Midheaven Transit - Set

Sun and Moon Aspects
: The astrological aspects that are easiest to learn and use are those between the Sun and the Moon. These can be found in an Almanac, ephemeris or astrological calendar. The Sun and Moon are conjunct at the New Moon and, unless overshadowed by heavier aspects, the market can be expected to move upward at that time.
 
Monthly Lunation Cycle 8 Lunar Sun-Moon 45° Phases

The Sun and Moon are in square aspect (90°) at the first quarter and the last quarter and a bear market is the normal result. The Sun and Moon are in opposition (180°) at the Full Moon, which usually brings a somewhat bullish market, but is not as positive as the New Moon. Sun/Moon trines (120°) come halfway between the opposition and the first quarter or last quarter. They are indicators of bull markets.

Eclipses are really just super New or Full Moons and unless aspected, produce little market change at the time. However, they sensitize a certain degree in the sky and whenever another planet comes into aspect with that point, LOOK OUT. The Noon or Mercury to that point will produce an erratic unpredictable market. When Mars comes into aspect with that point, the market is likely to fall sharply.

TimeAndDate.com - Eclipses and Transits Visible in New York

The Total Picture - Positive or Negative: A tool used by several financial astrologers is to tally all the aspects in the sky on a given day. This method is described by both LCdr. David Williams in his book, Financial Astrology, and by Donald Bradley in his book, Stock Market Prediction, but most users put their own construction on the methods described by Williams and Bradley.

The usual method is to list the aspects that are within a degree of orb on a given day over New York City within market hours, plus the more important ones that fall after or before the market is open. A numerical value is then assigned to each aspect. Conjunctions are ten; sextiles are 3; trines 10; squares 8, and oppositions six. In general, conjunctions, sextiles and trines are positive, whiles squares and oppositions are negative but this can be overridden by the nature of the planets involved. Saturn and Mars are always negative. Jupiter, Venus and Sun are always positive.
 
Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices

When the list is complete, add your negative column and then your positive column. If you have -86 and +13, you should definitely expect a down-day at the market. Plus 72 and minus 14 would indicate a bull market. This same method of tallying aspects can be used on a hourly basis or even fifteen minutes.

A FEW DAYS
Moon’s Daily Motion: The average daily motion of the Moon is 13.17749 degrees, but it fluctuates from 11.54’ to 14.36’, gaining in daily speed for nine to thirteen days and then losing speed for nine to thirteen days, depending on the season of the year. Whenever the Moon is gaining in daily speed the market tends to move upward; whenever the Moon is losing daily velocity, the market tends to move downward. This can account for small wobbles on a general trend line. (I find it of interest that this average thirteen day motion correlates with the Mayan calendar of thirteen day cycles, which they grouped into 260 day cycles (13x20). I am working on an overall plan to tie the market to the Mayan calendar, but it is not complete.)
 
Sun-Moon Daily Arc Move on Sphere = Longitude Speed

Sunspots
: Periods of solar prominence (sunspots) pour forth energy, causing all earthly activities to increase, including stock market trading. The usual result of this stimulus is a major market turning point, either up or down. Increased sunspot activity occurs whenever the planets Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Jupiter are on the same side of the Sun as the Earth. The greatest influence of all this tidal-like force occurs when Jupiter and Venus are in a heliocentric line-up with the Earth at 0°, 45°, and 90°, but lesser activity produces the well-known Dow cycles of 89 weeks, 124 weeks, and 208 weeks [see also HERE].
 
Jan Alvestad - Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

A very good illustration of this market indicator occurred on October 19, 1987, when the market dropped 505 points. Jupiter was exactly opposite the Sun, increasing solar flares and market timing--thus forcing a market turning point. Another example is October 27, 1997, when Jupiter was square the Sun. So, be aware that heliocentric aspects to the Sun mark major market turning points, both up and down.

Powerful Aspects: Certain aspects are especially powerful and will influence the market for five to seven days. Examples of powerful benevolent aspects are Jupiter or Venus in aspect to Uranus, Sun, or Mercury. Powerful negative aspects are Saturn to any planet and Mars to anything except Venus and Jupiter.

National Astronomical Observatory of Japan - Celestial Phenomena

A FEW WEEKS
The Planet Mercury: Mercury does rule trading and it alone can give you a reasonably good forecast. Whenever you see a Sun-Mercury conjunction, you may expect a high volume day that is very bullish. These happen about every six weeks. Mercury's daily motion is a very important market indicator. That is, whatever the daily motion of Mercury is increasing, the market is likely to move upward and whenever Mercury's velocity is decreasing, the market trend is downward. This has nothing to do with retrograde or forward motion.
 
Retrograde Planets Calendar

It is the increase or decrease of velocity that counts and the direction does not matter. When Mercury is stationery or nearly so, the market has a very low volume and is bearish. If Mercury is rapidly gaining in velocity, the market gains rapidly. If Mercury is gaining velocity slowly, the market is up a little. The tone of the market can be discerned by the actions of Mercury .

Seasonal Highs and Lows: The market is usually up January 9th through the 18th. This is because the Sun reaches 23°-25° Capricorn in mid-January, which produces a grand trine with Mercury at 24° Taurus in the NY Stock Exchange chart, Sun at 26° Taurus in the NYSE chart, Neptune at 20° Virgo in the chart of the USA, and Pluto at 24° Capricorn in the chart of the USA. A similar effect happens each September, when transit Sun reaches 18°-27° Virgo.
 
In fact, the degree 24°-26° Taurus is important to stock exchanges around the world. The New York Stock Exchange has Sun and Mercury in that area, Tokyo Exchange has Sun, Amsterdam Exchange has Sun and Pluto, Budapest Exchange has Venus, Lisbon Exchange has Jupiter, London Exchange has Sun, Melbourne Exchange has Venus and Uranus, Toronto Exchange has Jupiter opposite, Zurich Exchange has Venus and Pluto. It is easy to see why the markets so often act in unison.

Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees of the Sun

LONG TERM TRENDS
Venus Daily Motion: For longer term trends, I depend upon the increasing and decreasing of the velocity of Venus in the same way as the velocity of Moon and Mercury were used. This indicator points toward a lower 1999 than 1998. 
 
Venus' Daily Motion

The Outer Planets
: Very long term trends changes are marked by the aspects of Saturn, Jupiter, Uranus, and Neptune. A very good book about this is THE EGG OF COLUMBUS by George Bayer, which pretends to be describing a banquet or feast. If you set charts for the dates given in the book, you will find exact aspects of the outer planets. Enough said? These long-term trends have been charted as cycles of varying lengths, but for exact work, you will need to work from the helio-centric aspects of the outer planets.

HeavensAbove.com - Planet Summary

Mars Aspects: The planet Mars acts as a "trigger" for certain undesirable long-term stock market movements, whenever this planet is square or opposite one of the outer planets. That is, the outer planetary aspects set the long-term trends, but Mars produces the action. The following aspects are especially bad for the market: Mars conjunct Saturn, Mars square Neptune, Mars opposite Jupiter, Mars in opposition, regardless of the planet. In contrast, stock prices have consistently risen during the thirty days just before a conjunction of Mars with Jupiter or Mercury.

Geocentric and Heliocentric Aspect Search Engine (500BC - 2500AD)

CONCLUSION
These are some of the more important astro indicators of DJIA trends. Applying them is not a quick study. Instead, it requires several years of blending the various factors, until a certain "wisdom" develops. Above all, you should always be aware of both political and economic happenings around the world for these will provide the background for your research.

 
See also:

Monday, October 10, 2022

Lunar Phases and Stock Returns | Kathy Yuan et al.

Kathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu (2002) - This paper investigates the relation between lunar phases and stock returns for a sample of 48 countries. We find strong global evidence that stock returns are lower on days around a full moon than on days around a new moon. Constructing a lunar trading strategy, we find that the magnitude of this return difference is roughly 4.2 percent per annum.  
 
 
Since lunar phases are likely to be related to investor mood and are not related to economic activities, our findings are thus not consistent with the predictions of traditional asset pricing theories that assume fully rational investors. The positive association we find between lunar phases and stock returns suggests that it might be valuable to go beyond a rational asset pricing framework to explore the psychological effects of investor behavior on stock returns. 

Figure 1 - Average Daily Return of the Global Portfolio by Lunar Dates

Figure 2 - Average Daily Stock Returns of Global Portfolio by Lunar Windows

Figure 3 - Distribution of Full Moon Days on Days of Week

Saturday, July 30, 2022

The Lunar Cycle | Carol S. Mull

Carol S. Mull (198?) - The lunar cycle was first studied and presented to the faculty of the Graduate School of Pace University by Frank J. Guarino, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Business Administration degree. Later, his thesis was published by the American Federation of Astrologers. Modern cyclists have carried Guarino's work much farther. Today, it is possible to predict the market with 70% accuracy using only the lunar cycle.
 

The Sun and the Moon are in square aspect (90°) during the first and last quarters, in opposition (180°) at the Full Moon, and in conjunction (0°) at the New Moon. They are in sextile (60°) between the New Moon and the first quarter and between the last quarter and the New Moon. For precise work, compute a heliocentric chart for the times that the Moon, Earth, and Sun are in exact aspect. Unless there are other overshadowing influences, trines (120°) and conjunctions will be up, squares will be down, oppositions will be somewhat up, and sextiles can be either direction.

Most financial astrologers will tell you that oppositions (Full Moons) will sent the market down, but my experience does not verify this. Apparently, the momentum of being between two trines will carry the opposition along. If the next aspect following a sextile is a conjunction, the sextile is likely to correlate with an upward movement. But if the aspect following a sextile is a square, the sextile is likely to be accompanied by a downward-moving market. 

Another lunar cycle concerns the elements. The market tends to move up whenever the Moon is in an Air [Gemini, Libra, Aquarius] or Fire sign [Aries, Leo, Sagittarius] and to move downward whenever the Moon is in an Earth [Taurus, Virgo, Capricorn] or Water sign [Cancer, Scorpio, Pisces]. Other recent experiments have attempted to be the Moon's velocity and the angular rates of positive acceleration or negative acceleration to the market. These have been inconclusive. 

 
References:
Carol S. Mull (1988) - Short-Term Market Forecasting via Astrology. In: Traders World, #4903, Issue #3.
Carol S. Mull (1989) - Mercury and the Dow. In: Traders World, #4915, Issue #15.
 
HERE
HERE

HERE

Wednesday, December 2, 2020

S&P 500 Index vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | December 2020

SoLunar Map | December 2020 - January 2021

Recent and upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days: Nov 30 (Mon), Dec 03 (Thu), Dec 07 (Mon), Dec 11 (Fri),
Dec 15 (Tue), Dec 18 (Fri), Dec 22 (Tue), Dec 26 (Sat), Dec 30 (Wed), Jan 02 (Sat), Jan 06 (Wed),
Jan 09 (Sat), Jan 13 (Wed), Jan 17 (Sun), Jan 21 (Thu), Jan 24 (Sun), Jan 28 (Thu), Feb 01 (Mon),
Feb 04 (Thu). Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

Cosmic Cluster Days | December 2020 - January 2021

Recent and upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days: Nov 16 (Mon), Nov 18 (Wed), Dec 05 (Sat), Dec 31 (Thu),
Jan 14 (Thu), Jan 22 (Fri), Feb 01 (Mon), Feb 08 (Mon). Previous CCDs are HERE

Saturday, October 31, 2020

SoLunar Map | Review and Preview for November 2020

SoLunar Map | Review and Preview for November 2020
Upcoming solunar turn-days: Oct 31 (Sat) = Full Moon, Nov 01 (Sun), Nov 04 (Wed),
Nov 08 (Sun), Nov 11 (Wed), Nov 15 (Sun), Nov 19 (Thu), Nov 22 (Sun), Nov 26 (Thu),
Nov 30 (Mon) = Full Moon, Dec 03 (Thu), Dec 07 (Mon). Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

S&P 500 Index vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | November 2020

Upcoming turn-days: Nov 02 (Mon), Nov 07 (Sat), Nov 11 (Wed), Nov 15 (Sun),
Nov 19 (Thu), Nov 24 (Tue), Nov 28 (Sat), Dec 04 (Fri), Dec 07 (Mon), Dec 11 (Fri).
Previous turn-days HERE

Sunday, September 27, 2020

Cosmic Cluster Days | October - November 2020

Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days: Oct 01-02 (Thu-Fri), Oct 12 (Mon), Oct 16 (Fri), Oct 21 (Wed),
Oct 23 (Fri), Oct 26 (Mon), Oct 28 (Wed), Oct 30 (Fri), Nov 03 (Tue), Nov 12 (Thu),
Nov 15-16 (Sun-Mon), Nov 18 (Wed).
Previous CCDs HERE

SoLunar Map | October - November 2020

Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days:
Sep 24 (Thu), Sep 28 (Mon), Oct 01 (Thu), Oct 05 (Mon), Oct 09 (Fri), Oct 13 (Tue),
Oct 17 (Sat), Oct 20 (Tue), Oct 24 (Sat), Oct 28 (Wed), Nov 01 (Sun), Nov 04 (Wed),
Nov 08 (Sun), Nov 11 (Wed), Nov 15 (Sun), Nov 19 (Thu), Nov 22 (Sun), Nov 26 (Thu),
Nov 30 (Mon), Dec 03 (Thu). Previous SoLunar Maps HERE