Sunspots shifted +49 days |
The Ap index measures geomagnetic activity and the 10.7 cm Flux is considered a sunspot-proxy. Source: NOAA |
Sunspots shifted +49 days |
The Ap index measures geomagnetic activity and the 10.7 cm Flux is considered a sunspot-proxy. Source: NOAA |
10.7 cm Flux is considered a sunspot-proxy. Source: NOAA |
Credits: SILSO Data - Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels |
Heidelberger Schicksalsbuch on astrology and magic, completed in the 1490s in Regensburg, Germany. |
The Astronomical Almanac - United States Naval Observatory (HERE) |
HERE & HERE & HERE |
'Daily Sunspot Numbers' and 'F10.7 Flux' e.g. @ NASA's OMNIWeb |
Most people think the Sun rests at the centre of the solar system, and that the planets orbit it. This is almost correct, but not quite (HERE). |
Mikhail Gorbanev (2012): Probably, the earliest recorded hypothesis about the relation between the solar and business activity was presented in a paper by German astronomer Wilhelm Herschel in 1801, calling attention to an apparent relationship between sunspot activity and the price of wheat. In 1875 British economist and statistician William Stanley Jevons suggested that there was a relation- ship between sunspots and business cycle crises. He reasoned that sunspots affect Earth's weather, which, in turn, influences crops and, therefore, the economy. In 1934 Argentinian Carlos Garcia- Mata and Felix I. Shaffner revisited the evidence about the links between solar activity and business cycle in the US. They did not find support for Jevon’s theory about cyclical solar activity affecting crops. However, they uncovered a statistically significant correlation between the fluctuations in non-agricultural business activity in the US and the solar cycle. |
Mikhail Gorbanev (2012): Solar maximums are good predictors of US recession, effectively predicting at least 8 out of 13 recessions between 1935 and 2012. Recessions occurred in the months around and after the solar maximums much more often than in other periods. Out of 13 recessions in this period, 8 started in the 2 years around solar maximums, counting from 3 months before until 20 months after them. What about the remaining 4 recessions that occurred in 1935-2012, including the Great Recession of 2008-09? The brief recession of 1945 was likely caused by reduction of the US government supply and military orders in the end of the WWII. And the similar causes likely triggered the recession of 1953-54 after the end of Korean War (historically, the recessions quite often happened after the end of major wars). The painful recession of 1974-75 was caused by the oil price shock. And the Great Recession of 2008-09 was triggered by the collapse of sub-prime lending in the US, which exposed massive overvaluation of the housing stock and flaws in mortgage lending and securitization practices. |
Mikhail Gorbanev (2012): In the 64 years from 1948 to 2012, all 6 periods of sunspot maximums overlapped with minimums of the US unemployment rate. Moreover, each time the dynamics of unemployment changed from the declining trend to a rapid increase, with the unemployment rate peaking 2-3 years after the sunspot maximums. |