S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern for October 2023 | Jeff Hirsch

 

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Oct 03, 2023) @ X

See also:
TPR (2023) - Chinese 24 Solar Terms & Lunar Cycles in 2023.

 

Lunar Cycle & Chinese 24 Solar Terms - Oct 2023

Sell Rosh Hashanah & Buy Yom Kippur 2023 | Jeff Hirsch

Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur is aligning quite well this year with late September seasonal weakness and the notoriously treacherous week after quarterly options expiration, AKA Triple Witching (Fri, Sep 15th). It’s a few days before FOMC (Tue-Wed, Sep 19-20) with a market jittery on hotter inflation data.
 

Rosh Hashanah lands on Saturday 9/16 this year so we close the day before. This is right at the mid-month peak of the typical September pattern. Yom Kippur falls on 9/25 (Mon) which is the 16th trading day of the month, right around the seasonal monthly low point.

The thesis is that folks sell positions on Rosh Hashanah the first of the Days of Awe to rid themselves of financial commitments and then return to the market after Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. It is no coincidence that this coincides with the seasonal September/October weakness. The market has been tracking the 4-year cycle and seasonal trends to a T this year and the past 3. So this should make a great entry for the Q4 pre-election year rally.

Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Sep 13, 2023) - Sell Rosh Hashanah Buy Yom Kippur Sets Up.

 

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Sep 03, 2023) - S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2022 vs 2023.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2014) - Best 6 Months.

S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2022 vs 2023 | Jeff Hirsch

References:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Aug 23, 2023) @ X

J.C. Parets (Sep 3, 2023) @ X

 

Lunar Cycle & Chinese 24 Solar Terms - Sep 2023

Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern of U.S. Stock Indexes | Jeffrey A. Hirsch

In 2023 the 15th trading day of June will be Wednesday, 21st - summer solstice.

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch @ Twitter.

Russell 2000 Index vs SoLunar Map │ Rosh Hashanah and Equinox

The Russell 2000 vs the major 118.12 Calendar Day SoLunar Cycle.

Rosh Hashanah begins at sunset of Wednesday, Sep 20 (New Moon), and ends at nightfall on Friday, Sep 22. The fall (autumnal) equinox is on Friday, Sep 22 at 10:48 am EDT (see also HERE). Greed reached an extreme level on Sep 19 (Tue), and the S&P500, the Russell 2000, and the Nasdaq generated Narrow Range Inside Day Patterns (ID/NR4 and ID/NR7 - HERE + HERE).

Buy Rosh Hashanah, Sell Yom Kippur
[evening of Friday , Sep 29] ? │ Jeff Hirsch

DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Up 7 of Last 8 Years
Day before Rosh Hashanah │ Jeff Hirsch

Does the Stock Market predict the US Presidential Election?

Almanacist | The UK Stock Market Almanac (Oct 12, 2016) - The 14 charts above show the performance of the FTSE All-Share index over the 12 months of a US presidential election year. For example, the first chart shows the January-December performance of the UK market in 1960, the year John Kennedy was elected President of the United States. The dashed line in each chart indicates the date of the election.

  
However, "Trump is headed for a win", says Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor
of history at American University, who has predicted 30 years of presidential
outcomes correctly (HERE)

SPX vs 93 Trading Day Cycle + US Election

93 Trading Days ≈ 135 Calendar Days ≈ 19.3 Weeks ≈ 4.5 Months ≈ 0.37 Years.
Regardless of the election outcome, in November and December the S&P 500 advances 72.2% of the time.
(Source: Jeff Hirsch - see also HERE)

Stan Harley: November 8 (Tue) = Cycle Low in Stocks + Crude Oil (HERE)

Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur | Jeff Hirsch

Source: Jeff Hirsch's Almanac Trader

One saying for equities on Wall Street has historically been to “sell Rosh Hashanah" (Oct 3-4, 2016 (Mon-Tue)), and to "buy Yom Kippur" (Oct 12, 2016 (Wed)). Or was it vice versa?

Jeff Hirsch presents the data back to 1971: "When the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and opportune months. We then took it a step further and calculated the return from Yom Kippur to Passover.

[...] Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. While being long Yom Kippur to Passover has produced more than twice as many advances, averaging gains of 7.0%. It often pays to be a contrarian when old bromides are tossed around, buying instead of selling Yom Kippur – and selling Passover." 

SPX vs 7th Years of Presidents Cycle - Seasonality After Thanksgiving

Jeff Hirsch (Nov 25, 2015) - Now that Thanksgiving is upon us and early December gains tend to fade mid-month,
consider closing out those short term longs into strength today, Friday and next week.

Credits: Chris Carolan

SPX vs 23 Trading Day Cycle

This could be an ending diagonal triangle developing up into the winter solstice to top around 2,165.
Since 1987, the DJIA has logged gains in 22 of 28 years from the close on Friday after Thanksgiving to year end (HERE)

German DAX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

However, the Nasdaq dropped only by -0.1% or -2.65 points on Nov 4 (Wed) while the RASI was still rising, and Thomas Bulkowski
remarks: Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 541 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's: Average
gain was 0.7% on 295 occasions. Average loss was -0.9% on 246 occasions. Expect the index to close higher 54.5% [on Nov 5].

Tekkie Suresh: "Rahu getting involved with Venus and Mars, points to a trough around November mid month, Should see  a recovery thereafter."

Jeff Hirsch (Nov 3, 2015) - In the most recent 21-year period spanning 1994 to 2014, November opens strong, peaks around the fourth
trading day, trades lower till the eighth trading day, bounces mid-month, moves sideway to down during the week before Thanksgiving
then higher to close out the month with gains ranging from just under 1.5% for Russell 2000 to over 2% for DJIA.

Jeff Hirsch: October’s Typical Performance

Jeff Hirsch (Sep 26, 2015) - October’s typical performance appears in the chart at left over the recent 21-year span 1994 to 2014. On average, early month weakness has proven to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for NASDAQ (purple line) as early losses were quickly recouped leading to an average gain of over 3% from early month lows to the close.
Since 1991, October, the first month of the fourth quarter has improved substantially, climbing to fourth best DJIA month with an average gain of 1.6%. It’s the third best S&P 500 month (+1.6%) and second best for NASDAQ (+2.3%). Russell 2000 has not seen as much improvement with October climbing to just #8.

Sell in May - Buy in October

Credits: Jeff Hirsch

Jeff Hirsch (Sep 16, 2015) - Prior to about 1950, farming was a major portion of the U.S. economy and from 1901-1950, August was the best performing month of the year, up 36 times in 49 years (market closed in August 1914 due to World War I) with an average gain of 2.3%. July was the second best month, up 31 of 50 with an average gain of 1.5%. June was fourth best, averaging 0.9%. Why, you may ask. In a single word, harvesting. As crops were brought to market and sold, cash began to move and so did the stock market.

Agriculture’s share of GDP began to shrink post World War II as industrialization created a growing middle class that moved to the suburbs where hard-earned salaries would be spent filling new homes with all the modern conveniences we all take for granted now. Farming became more efficient and fewer and fewer people worked on the farm. Suddenly, summer was less about the hard work of harvesting crops and more about vacations and relaxing. As the economy evolved and peoples’ lives changed, the market evolved. June and August went from being top performing months to bottom performing months. August went from #1 to #10 in 1950-2014 with an average loss of 0.1%. June went from #4 to #11 (–0.3% average loss). The shift in DJIA’s seasonal pattern is clear in the [above] chart. “Sell in May” is a post WWII pattern, prior to then it would have been “Buy in May”.

Lagging behind the Average Presidential Cycle

Credits: Almanac Trader. See also HERE

RUT vs 180 Solar Degrees

Still true after the equinox? See also HERE

DJIA 2014 vs 1997

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.
For the methodology see HERE

www.sentimentrader.com

The Stock Trader's Almanac Blog presented December’s typical seasonal pattern pointing to a bottom in stocks this week, possibly Monday, followed by a strong up day and then a nice rally.

www.stocktradersalmanac.com

Time-Price-Projections for a Major Low in Stocks

Credits: Jeff Hirsch - StockTradersAlmanac.com

S&P500 Seasonality - January Indicators

Jeffrey A. Hirsch: The recent Santa Claus Rally (SCR), the First Five Days (FFD), and the January Barometer (JB) were all positive. Since 1950, all three indicators have been positive 27 times and full-year gains followed 25 times. 

The chart shows the 1-Year Seasonal pattern of the S&P 500 when the SCR, FFD, and JB were all positive since 1950.

Market Probability Chart of S&P 500

Credits: Stock Trader's Almanac 2012

Sell Rosh Hashanah - Buy Yom Kippur

Jeffrey A. Hirsch turns around the old Wall Street adage “Buy Rosh Hashanah, Sell Yom Kippur.” The wiser course of action these days is to “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur, Sell Passover.” He explains that “the basis for the new pattern is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum.”

Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, falls on the Hebrew calendar dates of 1 and 2 Tishrei (2012 = September 16 (at sundown) - 18).

Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement, falls on the Hebrew calendar date of 10 Tishrei (2012 = September 25-26)