ICT Daily and Intraday Bias | Darya Filipenka

Determining the daily bias in trading is not about establishing a preconceived bias before the market commences trading, as this approach can often prove to be inaccurate. Instead, it relies on experience and adherence to specific rules. For example, being bullish doesn't mean buying every day, and being bearish doesn't mean selling every day. Traders should wait for specific conditions to meet their expectations, such as discount arrays for bullish trades and premium arrays tor bearish trades, during specific times of the day. 

 

Furthermore, the economic calendar can be effectively employed alongside the daily chart to foresee potential manipulation linked to high-impact news catalysts. Ultimately, determining the daily bias demands the amalgamation of diverse insights acquired through mentorship and hands-on experience. One of the key factors in determining daily and intraday bias is the previous day's high and low. These levels act as reference points that help traders gauge the strength of the current trend and anticipate potential price movements.

To recognize bias, we must identify what order flow is currently being respected. In bullish markets, we expect discount arrays to support price, while in bearish markets we see resistance from premium arrays. Recognizing a change in the state of delivery of price will be important when timing reversals. 

 

It is vital to keep in mind that the daily bias is not a fixed concept. The market's bias can change over the course of the day due to factors like news events, economic data, or geopolitical influences. Traders must remain flexible and modify their strategies accordingly.

Reference:

Darya Filipenka @ Twitter/X.

Darya Filipenka (2023) - Unlocking Success in ICT 2022 Mentorship: The Smart Money Guide to the Full ICT Day Trading Model. 

Michael J. Huddleston (2018) - ICT Daily Bias. (video)

ICT Advanced Market Structure | Darya Filipenka

ICT market structure refers to the way the market behaves and shifts based on various factors such as institutional order flow, imbalances, and key levels. It is represented in a series of either higher lows and higher highs = bullish, or series of lower highs and lower lows = bearish, and the actual turning points that include highs and lows within it (intermediate highs and lows). 

 

The market trades in a generic pattern or rhythm and it is easy to read if one is aware of the basic structure price tends to move in.

1. Generally, the market trades from short term low (STL) to short term high (STH) back to a new short-term tow (STL). As these STL’s and STH's form, they will develop a 'market structure' of price action.
2. Any short term low (STL) that has higher short-term lows (STL) on both sides of it is considered an Intermediate term low (ITL).
3. Any short term high (STH) that has lower short-term highs (STH) on both sides of it is considered an intermediate term high (ITH).
4. Any Intermediate term low (ITL) that has higher intermediate term lows (ITL) on both sides of it is considered long term low (LTL).
5. Any Intermediate term high (ITH) that has lower intermediate term highs (ITH) on both sides of it is considered long term high (LTH).

The highest time frame will act as a Long-Term Perspective. This time frame will show you Higher Time Frame (HTF) Levels which will offer Trade Setup Opportunities. Trade ideas will be built upon levels derived from the HTF.
 

The mid-level time frame will act as an Intermediate-Term Perspective. Following the Trade Setup Opportunity found on the HTF, the mid-level will give you more definition in terms of structure based on that HTF Level. Managing trades will be done via a mid-level time frame.
 

The lowest time frame will act as a Short-Term Perspective. Following the Trade Setup Opportunity found on the HTF and insights given with the mid-level. The Short-Term Perspective will give you even more definition in terms of structure. Timing trades with entries will be done via the lowest time frame.

 

ICT Advanced Market Structure pairs very well with the ICT Market Maker Buy Model and Sell Model.

 

(Source)

 

Reference:

Darya Filipenka @ Twitter/X.

Darya Filipenka (2023) - Unlocking Success in ICT 2022 Mentorship: The Smart Money Guide to the Full ICT Day Trading Model. 

Michael J. Huddleston (2019) - Essentials to ICT Market Structure. (video)

ICT Seasonality | Michael J. Huddleston

 

 

We are in the quiet part of the year still.
Spring is coming to the markets very soon.

The year, if viewed as a single range ... we are in the Accumulation phase still.
Don't blow your equity before the salad days return.

January to April is the yearly Accumulation.
April to May is the Manipulation.
May to November is the Distribution.
December resets the yearly range.

Power of 3

Now go lose sleep over it in your charts.

You won't appreciate this until you pour
over all markets and asset classes and then your ass will hit the floor.
 

 Michael J. Huddleston

 

 

Time is more important than Price.

 

 

Accumulation - Manipulation - Distribution

 

 

There are two sets of instructions that the algorithm follows:  

AMD-X and X-AMD

 

A = Accumulation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation
D = Distribution
X = Reversal or Continuation

ICT Deep Dive Into Institutional Order Flow | Darya Filipenka

 

Institutional order flow refers to the way large institutions and banks interact with the market, either as buyers or sellers, to achieve their intended purpose. This can involve taking participants out of the market or drawing them in as counter-parties to their trades. Institutional order flow is not visible on volume profile analysis, depth of market, ladder, or level 2 data, as these can be spoofed. Instead, it can be identified through price action and understanding how price is being delivered in the market.

Reference:

Darya Filipenka @ Twitter/X.

Darya Filipenka (2023) - Unlocking Success in ICT 2022 Mentorship: The Smart Money Guide to the Full ICT Day Trading Model. 

Michael J. Huddleston (2023) - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Deep Dive Into Institutional Order Flow. (video)

Turtle Soup Day In Day Out │ Max Singh

The Turtle Soup trading strategy was developed by Linda Bradford-Raschke and published in her 1996 book Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies. 

 

The strategy’s name is a reference to a well-known strategy called Turtle trading, taught by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt in the 1980s to a group of novice traders called the 'Turtles'. 

 

 

Linda Bradford-Raschke inverted the reasoning behind the original Turtle strategy in order to develop a short-term trading method using false breakout reversals at key levels. The strategy can be used on 1 hour, 4 hour or daily charts. The method is simple but requires understanding of order flow and market structure. 

 

Reference:

Linda Bradford Raschke & Laurence A. Connors (1996) - Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies.

 Max Singh (2019) - The Turtle Soup Trading Strategy. (video)

 

Forecaster BS │ Robert Miner

 » Learn to trade, ignore forecasters. «

 Robert Miner

 

'Forecasts' and 'signals' are useless without strategies and setups. A setup includes timing and levels for entry, exit, stop-loss, and position sizing in line with risk-management. This is what Robert Miner teaches in his books. Understand time cycles, price action, that price is always timed and measured; order flow, accumulation, manipulation and distribution (AMD/Power of 3); trend, trend reversal and trend continuation; time of day/week/month/quarter and risk/reward. Then develop 'signals' and strategies. Back-test. Learn to trade, ignore forecaster BS. 

 

Flowchart for a 

 Stacey Burke 3 Day Cycle trade setup.

Implementing Economic Calendar Events | Darya Filipenka

 

One of the primary reasons for studying the economic calendar is to anticipate and manage potential volatility in the markets. Economic events can have a profound impact on market sentiment and can cause significant price fluctuations. For example, an unexpected interest rate hike by the Central Bank can lead to a sharp sell-off in the stock market, while positive economic data can boost investor confidence and drive prices higher. The focus should be on High Impact and Medium Impact News Events.

Reference:

 Darya Filipenka (2023) - Unlocking Success in ICT 2022 Mentorship: The Smart Money Guide to The Full ICT Day Trading Model. 

Darya Filipenka @ Twitter/X.

Michael J. Huddleston (2022) - The ICT 2022 Mentorship Trading Strategy.

David Hickson (Feb 05, 2024) - News Events & Financial Markets. 

 

Best Economic News Calendar. 

Quarterly Theory - London and New York AM & PM Setups | Darya Filipenka

 

A 90 minute cycle either plays out as an AMD-X or as a X-AMD pattern:

A = Accumulation/Consolidation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation/Expansion
D = Distribution/Expansion
X = Reversal or Continuation

 

Q1 dictates Q2, Q3 and Q4.

If Q1 accumulates (A), Q2 expands (M).

If Q2 accumulates (A), Q4 expands (D).
If Q1 expands, Q2 accumulates, Q3 expands and Q4 accumulates.
If Q2 expands, Q3 accumulates.
If Q2 expands, Q3 accumulates.
If Asia expands, skip London, trade NY and skip the PM session.
If Asia consolidates, trade London, skip NY, then trade the PM Session.
London is more prone to make the high/low of the day whenever Asia consolidates. 

Anticipate price to run the high if you are bearish or the low if you are bullish.
Tuesday is more prone to make the high/low of the week whenever Monday consolidates.
Best trading days will have consolidation during the Asian Session. 

 

Possible Quarterly Phase Transitions:

• Accumulation → Expansion: The initial phase A often begins with Accumulation, where price movement remains within a narrow range. This will transition into an expansion phase M.
• Expansion → Retracement or Reversal: Within the expansion phase, the market can either experience a retracement, where prices pull back temporarily before continuing in the same direction, or a reversal, where the trend changes direction entirely.
• Retracement → Expansion or Reversal: A retracement, which involves a temporary pullback in prices, can be followed by either an expansion phase or a reversal, depending on how traders react to the retracement.
• Reversal → Expansion or Retracement: Following a reversal, where the trend direction changes, the market can enter either an expansion phase or a retracement, as traders adapt to the new direction.
• Expansion → Retracement → Another Leg Up/Down: After an expansion phase, a retracement may occur, followed by another price movement in the same direction, often resulting in another leg up or down in the overall trend.
• Expansion → Reversal: In the expansion phase, a trend reversal can occur, leading to a shift in price direction.

 

Impossible Quarterly Phase Transitions:

• Accumulation → Reversal: A direct transition from Accumulation to reversal is not likely, as Accumulation represents a phase of price stabilization, whereas reversal involves a significant change in trend direction.
• Accumulation → Retracement: Similarly, a direct transition from Accumulation to retracement is unlikely, as Accumulation involves a range-bound price movement, while retracement implies a temporary pullback in an existing trend.
• Accumulation → Expansion → Accumulation: After an expansion phase, transitioning directly back into another Accumulation is not a common occurrence. The expansion phase typically leads to further price movement or potential retracement/reversal.
• Retracement → Reversal: Transitioning directly from a retracement to a reversal without an intermediate expansion phase is improbable, as retracement represents a temporary pause within a trend, whereas reversal involves a fundamental shift in trend direction.

 

 

Reference:

 Darya Filipenka a.k.a. LumiTraders (2023) - The Quarterly Theory.

Jevaunie Daye (2023) - The Quarterly Theory.

Funded Teacher (Jan 15, 2024) - Quarterly Theory. (video)

Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - The Wyckoff Method of Trading in Stocks.

Quarterly Theory vs S&P 500 | Week January 15 - 19

Time-price relations are fractal and governed by algorithms. The trading week comprises four time quarters (Q1-Q4): Q1 is Monday, Q2 Tuesday, Q3 Wednesday and Q4 Thursday. Friday has a special function and is not part of this cycle. The market maker's time-price algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 patterns: AMD - X and X - AMD in which Q1-Q4 have the following functions: A   =  Accumulation phase; M  =  Manipulation phase; D  =  Distribution phase and X  =  Continuation or Reversal phase. In the weekly AMD - X pattern Q1 Monday is the Accumulation phase. Q2 Tuesday is the Manipulation phase and the first Q2 price is the weeks True Open. Q3 Wednesday has the 'distribution function' and produces the weeks largest directional move. Q3 is easiest and best to trade. X Thursday continues or reverses the Q3 trend. In the weekly X - AMD pattern Q1 Monday is the X day, Q2 accumulates, Q3 manipulates and Q4 Thursday produces the week's largest directional move; easiest and best to trade.    

 

S&P 500 (4 hour bars)

The Monthly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one week each. 

Q1 is the first full week of the month, Q2 the second week, etc.

Week January 15 - 19 (Mon-Fri) =

 Q2 week with Accumulation function and AMD - X day pattern. 

 

 S&P 500 (30 minute bars)

 

Each trading day comprises four six hour quarters (EST/New York):
Q1 - 18:00 - 00:00 Asia Session
Q2 - 00:00 - 06:00 London Session (first Q2 price = True Open)
Q3 - 06:00 - 12:00 New York AM Session
Q4 - 12:00 - 18:00 New York PM Session

The algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 session patterns:

AMD - X and X - AMD

Each six hour session comprises four 90 minute quarters (EST/New York):
Q1 - 18:00 - 19:30
Q2 - 19:30 - 21:00 (first Q2 price = True Open)
Q3 - 21:00 - 22:30
Q4 - 22:30 - 00:00

The algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 90 minute patterns:

AMD - X and X - AMD

Each 90 minute cycle comprises four  22.5 minute micro-quarters (EST/New York):
Q1 - 18:00 - 18:22:30
Q2 - 18:22:30 - 18:45 (first Q2 price = True Open)
Q3 - 18:45 - 19:07:30
Q4 - 19:07:30 - 19:30 

The algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 22.5 minute patterns:

AMD - X and X - AM

 

Reference:

Jevaunie Daye (2023) - The Quarterly Theory.

The ICT Judas Swing | Michael J. Huddleston

The » Judas Swing « is an engineered false price run meant to trap traders into taking positions in the wrong direction. Traders can use this to catch the high or low of the day and sometimes even the week if the proper narrative is in play. A Judas Swing can happen either in the London or in the New York session; however it is most common during the London session. During the London session Judas Swing price action usually trades above or below the week's opening price and manipulates buy or sell stops. The Judas Swing usually runs into keys levels such as the previous week's, the previous day's High/Low and the previous session's High/Low, into premium/discount levels, and into imbalances (Fair Value Gaps, FVGs).

 

The concept of a Judas goat leading sheep to slaughter can be applied to price action in trading.

The London session Judas Swing can set the session's or the day's high or low. 

This will come as a quick spike price action hunting for buy or sell liquidity. 

 

► The London Session Judas Swing - Bearish Scenario

The London Judas Swing refers to a false move in the market during the London session that tricks traders into believing the price will continue in a particular direction but then reverses. Focus on trading and identifying the London Judas Swing between New York midnight to 5 AM (New York Local Time).

 

• Mark Highs and Lows of the Asia Session: Identify the highest and lowest price levels reached during the Asia session.
• Mark New York midnight candle opening: Identify the opening price of the candle at New York midnight (NY 00:00).
• Check price trading above New York midnight: During the London Kill Zone (typically from the start of the London session until around 5:00 AM NY local time), check if the price is trading above the opening price of the candle in New York midnight.
• Check for Liquidity Grab at Asian high: If the price is trading above the New York midnight opening during the London Kill Zone, check for a liquidity grab at the Asian session high.
• Identify Market Structure Shift: Look for signs of a market structure shift, indicating a potential change in the market direction.
• Find a favorable entry point (e.g. a Fair Value Gap): Based on the market structure shift and liquidity grab, identify a favorable entry point that aligns with the anticipated market direction.
• Target: In an ideal scenario, set the target at the Asian session low or any visible sell-side liquidity, aiming for a profitable trade.

► The London Session Judas Swing - Bullish Scenario

Here’s a step-by-step breakdown for the bullish scenario, focusing on identifying a liquidity grab at the low of the Asian session during the London Kill Zone, finding the Market Structure Shift (MSS), determining a favorable entry point (FVG or IFVG), and setting the target at the Asian session high or buy-side liquidity:

 

• Identify Liquidity Grab at Asian Session Low: During the London Kill Zone (between New York midnight to 5 AM NY local time), observe if the price trades above the New York midnight opening and check for a liquidity grab at the Asian session low.
• Find Market Structure Shift (MSS): Look for a significant change or shift in market structure, such as a clear indication of a potential bullish movement.
• Determine favorable entry (FVG or IFVG): Based on the observed market structure shift and liquidity grab, identify a favorable entry point (FVG) or an improved favorable entry point (IFVG) that aligns with the anticipated bullish movement.
• Set Target: In this bullish scenario, set the target at the Asian session high or any visible buy-side liquidity, aiming for a profitable trade.

► The New York Session Judas Swing - Bearish Scenario

• Time Frame: Focus on trading from 7:00 AM to 9:00 AM (New York Kill Zone)
• Price Condition: Confirm the price is trading above 7:00 AM and the NY Opening.
• Buy Side Liquidity Hunt: Wait for a move higher to trigger buy orders (liquidity hunt).
• Market Structure Shift (MSS): Look for a significant shift indicating a potential bearish direction.
• Favorable entry (FVG or IFVG): Identify a strategic entry point aligning with the expected bearish movement.
• Target: Aim for sell-side liquidity or visible sell-side order clusters.

► The New York Session Judas Swing - Bullish Scenario

• Time Frame: Focus on trading from 7:00 AM to 9:00 AM (New York Kill Zone)
• Price Condition: Confirm the price is trading below 7:00 AM and the NY Opening.
• Sell Side Liquidity Hunt: Wait for a move lower to trigger sell orders (liquidity hunt).
• Market Structure Shift (MSS): Look for a significant shift indicating a potential bullish direction.
• Favorable entry (FVG or IFVG): Identify a strategic entry point aligning with the expected bullish movement.
• Target: Aim for buy-side liquidity or visible sell-side order clusters. 

Michael J. Huddleston (Dec 10, 2017):

Understanding the ICT Judas Swing.
 

Ritchie Naso, a 40-year veteran NYSE floor trader:
» Algorithms control the stock market. «

 

Reference:

Michael J. Huddleston (2023) - ICT Daily Range Profiles.

 Michael J. Huddleston (2023) - ICT Weekly Range Profiles.
M. Hamza Akhtar (Oct 02, 2023) - ICT Judas Swing: Smart Money Trap.
DayTradingRauf (2023) - ICT Judas Swing and Market Protraction.

Daye (2023) - The Quarterly Theory. 

 

 

The Quarterly Theory | Jevaunie Daye

Time must be divided into quarters for a proper interpretation of market cycles. Blending the Quarterly Theory (not to be confused with the Quarters Theory) and basic ICT concepts leads to enhanced precision. Understanding Quarterly Theory allows to be flexible. It fits in with any style of trading, as it is universal to all time-frames. The Quarterly Theory removes ambiguity, as it gives specific time-based reference points to look for when entering trades. Before being able to apply this theory to trading, one must first understand that time is fractal:

Yearly Quarters = 4 quarters of three months each.
Monthly Quarters = 4 quarters of one week each.
Weekly Quarters = 4 quarters of one day each (Monday - Thursday). Friday has its own specific function.
Daily Quarters = 4 quarters of 6 hours each = 4 trading sessions of a trading day.
Sessions Quarters =  4 quarters of 90 minutes each.
90 Minutes Quarters =  4 quarters of 22.5 minutes each.

 

Yearly Cycle: Analogously to financial quarters, the year is divided in four sections of three months each.

Q1 - January, February, March
Q2 - April, May, June (True Open, April Open)
Q3 - July, August, September
Q4 - October, November, December

Monthly Cycle: Considering that we have four weeks in a month, we start the cycle on the first month’s Monday (regardless of the calendar Day).

Q1 - Week 1, first Monday of the month
Q2 - Week 2, second Monday of the month (True Open, Daily Candle Open Price)
Q3 - Week 3, third Monday of the month
Q4 - Week 4, fourth Monday of the month

Weekly Cycle: Daye determined that although the trading week is composed by 5 trading days, we should ignore Friday, and the small portion of Sunday’s price action.

Q1 - Monday
Q2 - Tueday (True Open, Daily Candle Open Price)
Q3 - Wednesday
Q4 - Thursday

Daily Cycle: The Day can be broken down into 6 hour quarters. These times roughly define the sessions of the trading day, reinforcing the theory’s validity.

Q1 - 18:00 - 00:00 Asia
Q2 - 00:00 - 06:00 London (True Open)
Q3 - 06:00 - 12:00 NY AM
Q4 - 12:00 - 18:00 NY PM

 

6 Hour Quarters/Sessions divided into four sections of 90 minutes each  (EST/EDT).

Asian Session

Q1 - 18:00 - 19:30
Q2 - 19:30 - 21:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 21:00 - 22:30
Q4 - 22:30 - 00:00

 London Session

Q1 - 00:00 - 01:30
Q2 - 01:30 - 03:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 03:00 - 04:30
Q4 - 04:30 - 06:00

NY AM Session 

Q1 - 06:00 - 07:30
Q2 - 07:30 - 09:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 09:00 - 10:30
Q4 - 10:30 - 12:00

NY PM Session 

Q1 - 12:00 - 13:30
Q2 - 13:30 - 15:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 15:00 - 16:30
Q4 - 16:30 - 18:00

 

Micro Cycle: Lastly, dividing a 90 Minute Cycle yields 22.5 Minute Quarters, known as Micro Sessions.

Asian Session

Q1/1 18:00:00 - 18:22:30
Q2     18:22:30 - 18:45:00
Q3     18:45:00 - 19:07:30
Q4     19:07:30 - 19:30:00
Q2/1 19:30:00 - 19:52:30
Q2/2 19:52:30 - 20:15:00  (True Open)
Q2/3 20:15:00 - 20:37:30
Q2/4 20:37:30 - 21:00:00
Q3/1 21:00:00 - 21:23:30
etc.    21:23:30 - 21:45:00
21:45:00 - 22:07:30
22:07:30 - 22:30:00
22:30:00 - 22:52:30
22:52:30 - 23:15:00
23:15:00 - 23:37:30
23:37:30 - 00:00:00

London Session

00:00:00 - 00:22:30
00:22:30 - 00:45:00
00:45:00 - 01:07:30
01:07:30 - 01:30:00
01:30:00 - 01:52:30
01:52:30 - 02:15:00  (True Open)
02:15:00 - 02:37:30
02:37:30 - 03:00:00
03:00:00 - 03:22:30
03:22:30 - 03:45:00
03:45:00 - 04:07:30
04:07:30 - 04:30:00
04:30:00 - 04:52:30
04:52:30 - 05:15:00
05:15:00 - 05:37:30
05:37:30 - 06:00:00

New York AM Session

06:00:00 - 06:22:30
06:22:30 - 06:45:00
06:45:00 - 07:07:30
07:07:30 - 07:30:00
07:30:00 - 07:52:30
07:52:30 - 08:15:00  (True Open)
08:15:00 - 08:37:30
08:37:30 - 09:00:00
09:00:00 - 09:22:30
09:22:30 - 09:45:00
09:45:00 - 10:07:30
10:07:30 - 10:30:00
10:30:00 - 10:52:30
10:52:30 - 11:15:00
11:15:00 - 11:37:30
11:37:30 - 12:00:00

New York PM Session

12:00:00 - 12:22:30
12:22:30 - 12:45:00
12:45:00 - 13:07:30
13:07:30 - 13:00:00
13:00:00 - 13:22:30
13:22:30 - 13:45:00  (True Open)
13:45:00 - 14:07:30
14:07:30 - 14:30:00
14:30:00 - 14:52:30
14:52:30 - 15:15:00
15:15:00 - 15:37:30
15:37:30 - 16:00:00
16:00:00 - 16:22:30
16:22:30 - 16:45:00
16:45:00 - 17:07:30
17:07:30 - 18:00:00

 

The Monthly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one week each. Start counting the quarters from the first full week, meaning if the first week relating to the traditional month is a partial week, it is omitted and viewed as distortion. The first full week of the month is the first quarter, the second week is the second quarter, the third week is the third quarter and the fourth week is the fourth quarter.

The Weekly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one day each. Monday is the first quarter, Tuesday is the second quarter, Wednesday is the third quarter and Thursday is the fourth quarter. Friday is not included into the weekly cycle due to the fact that it has its own specific function.

The Daily Cycle is comprised of four quarters, six hours each, which perfectly aligns with the four trading sessions of a trading day. The first quarter is the Asian session, the second quarter is the London session, the third quarter is the New York session and the fourth quarter is the afternoon session. 

 

Each Session is comprised of four quarters, 90 minutes each. During the Asian session, the 90 minute cycles are as follows: 6pm to 7.30pm is the first quarter, 7.30pm to 9pm is the second quarter, 9pm to 10.30pm is the third quarter and 10.30pm to 12.00pm midnight is the fourth quarter. During the London session, the first quarter is 12.00am midnight to 1.30am. The second quarter is 1.30am to 3.00am. The third quarter is 3.00am to 4.30am. The fourth quarter is 4.30am to 6.00am. During the New York session, the first quarter is 6.00am to 7.30am. The second quarter is 7.30am to 9.00am. The third quarter is 9.00am to 10.30am. And the fourth quarter is 10.30am to 12.00pm. During the Afternoon session the first quarter is 12.00pm to 1.30pm. The second quarter is 1.30pm to 3.00pm. The third quarter is 3.00pm to 4.30pm. And the fourth quarter is 4.30pm to 6.00pm.

Now that we understand that time is fractal, we can begin to look into the functions of some of the quarters. Price is delivered by an algorithm. So there must be some initial input which is used to make decisions throughout each cycle. This is the function of Q1. Q1 dictates the quarters which follow, meaning Q1 is used as a barometer for forecasting market conditions in the subsequent quarters of each cycle. If the first quarter is overextended, expect the second quarter to consolidate, and if the first quarter is in a tight range, expect the second quarter to expand. 

 

 

True Opens are the main components of quarterly theory. There are specific openings of price which serve as a time-based filter for gauging manipulation swings or stop-hunts. True opens are the beginning of Q2 of every cycle.  True Opens are defined by these times:

• Yearly True Open = 1st Monday of April.
• Monthly True Open = 2nd Monday of the month.
• Weekly True Open = 6:00 PM EST every Monday.
• Daily True Open = 12:00 P.M (Midnight) EST time.
• NY Session True Open = 7:30 A.M EST time.
• Asian Session True Open = 7:30 P.M EST time.
• London Session True Open = 1:30 A.M EST time. 

 

Buy below True Open. Sell above True Open.

 

 

It is a simple concept to understand. If you are bullish within a specific cycle, you want to buy below its true open, and if you are bearish within a specific cycle, you want to sell above its true open. This will increase your accuracy tremendously, as key levels usually rest above or below true opens. Every cycle has its own true open. The true year open is the opening price of the first Monday of April. The true month open is the opening price of the second Monday of the month. The true week open is Monday at 6 p.m. The true day open is 12 o'clock midnight. The true open of the age on session is 7 30 p.m. The true open of the London session is 1 30 a.m. The true open of the New York session is 7 30 a.m. And the true open of the afternoon session is 1 30 p.m. The image to the right depicts how true opens function during bullish market environments.

There are two sets of instructions that the algorithm follows:  

AMD-X and X-AMD

 

A = Accumulation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation
D = Distribution
X = Reversal or Continuation

After a tight Q1 range the Q2 Manipulation Phase begins. ICT calls this the 'Judas Swing'. According to his algorithmic theory, the purpose of this fake move is to get traders offside. After Q2 the real move takes place: the Q3 distribution phase and is usually the easiest to trade as the previous quarter has already established a trend of the cycle. The fourth phase is X which can either continue to establish range of the cycle or reverse. In regards to this example, the fourth quarter is reversal. As you can see, price reverses at Higher Time Frame Premium-Discount Arrays (PDAs) or key levels. 

 

 The AMD-Principle is represented in every bar of every time-frame (monthly, weekly, daily, 4 Hour, etc.) 

with a price value at which it starts trading (opening price), the highest price value (high), the lowest (low), 

and  a value of the time it ends trading (close).

Liquidity is induced when price breaches old highs and old lows while trading into key levels. If you usually trade with the one minute chart, you need a 15 minute PDA. If you usually trade with the five minute chart, you need a one hour PDA. If you usually trade with the 15 minute chart, you need a four hour PDA. If you usually trade with the one hour chart, you need a daily PDA. And if you usually trade with the four hour chart, you need a weekly PDA. 

 

Regarding X-AMD, the first quarter is the continuation or reversal of the previous Q. Of the previous cycle, using what we understand from the function of Q1, Q2 should then accumulate, resulting in high range price action. Q3 would then be the manipulation phase. However, the rules for the true opens are static. They don't change. The opening price of Q2 will always be its true open. So if the profile that you're looking at is X-AMD, even though accumulation takes place during Q2, you will use the opening price of Q2, which is its true open to gauge, the Judah swing, which will present itself more times or not in Q3. The last phase will be the distribution phase, which will be the easiest phase to trade in regards to X-AMD. 

 

Dividing a 90 Minute Cycle into 22.5 Minute Quarters (Micro Sessions).

 

Reference:
Jevaunie Daye on Twitter/X @traderdaye
ICT Concepts (2023) - Quarterly Theory and True Open. (video)

Daye's Full course / Quarterly Theory.

 

Daye (April 14, 2023) - Introduction to Quarterly Theory 

(Something You Shouldn't Know).

 

 Jevaunie Daye (2023) - Deeper Dive into Quarterly Theory.

 

Kirsten Boersma (September 10, 2023):

Quarterly Theory - the Hack of the Algorithm?

Is this proof of the algorithm existing or not? I do think so;-) 

And it's mind blowing how this fractal quarterly theory happens over and over again.