Showing posts with label ICT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ICT. Show all posts

Friday, May 17, 2024

ICT Classic Expansion Week & TGIF Setup

Classic Expansion Week = Tuesday Low/High of the Week and Thursday High/Low of the Week. 
 

 
Weekly Profiles for Daily Bias
 
 
 Take profit targets of the TGIF Setup: 20-30% of the weekly range.
 
 
TGIF Setup - 3 Step Framework

Reference:
AM Trades (2023) - The Weekly Profile Guide.
Darya Filipenka (2023) - Implementing Economic Calendar Events.
Darya Filipenka (2023) - ICT T.G.I.F. (Thank God It's Friday) Setup.
Michael J. Huddleston (2015) - ICT Weekly Range Profiles. 
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Friday, May 10, 2024

ICT T.G.I.F. (Thank God It's Friday) Setup | Darya Filipenka

Algorithmic trading is a method of executing trades using pre-programmed instructions or algorithms that automatically trigger trades based on certain conditions. It's a fascinating approach that can help traders make more precise and efficient decisions. Now, let's focus on a specific algorithmic trading model called the TGIF (Thank God It's Friday) setup. This is a day-based algorithmic trading model that can be applied to all assets. As the name suggests, this model is designed to be used on Fridays. The TGIF setup focus is on a market pullback into the current weekly range. It is particularly effective when anchored against higher time frame analysis.

» In the last portion of Friday’s trading, if it hasn't occurred yet, you can expect some retracement of the weekly range. «

When using the TGIF setup it's crucial to approach from a top-down perspective. This means starting with higher time frame analysis, such as monthly or weekly charts, to get a broader view of the market's direction. In candlestick analysis, there is a concept called the ICT Power of 3. This refers to a specific pattern and distribution phase that can indicate a potential reversal or exhaustion in the market. By studying the one-month chart, you identify the weekly range and its key levels. You apply Fibonacci levels to pinpoint the sweet spot where the TGIF setup is likely to occur. You also conduct top-down analysis by examining higher time frame charts to get a broader view of the market's direction. Keep an eye out for the ICT Silver Bullet formation. 


To apply the TGIF setup, follow these steps:
  1. Start by analyzing the higher time frame charts, such as monthly or weekly charts, to get a broader view of the market's direction.
  2. Identify the Weekly Range Profile and its key levels, such as the High and the Low of the range.
  3. Use Fibonacci levels to pinpoint sweet spot where the TGIF setup is likely to occur.
  4. Look for the pullback into the weekly range.
  5. Pay attention to the ICT Power of 3 pattern in candlestick analysis, which can indicate potential reversals or exhaustion.
  6. Keep an eye out for the ICT Silver Bullet formation, a powerful pattern that provides valuable insights into market dynamics.
  7. Combine all these analysis techniques to make informed trading decisions using the TGIF setup.
 
 
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Tuesday, May 7, 2024

ICT AM NY Session A+ Setup based on Quarterly Theory | Darya Filipenka

People have been asking me to share my strategy. No, I do NOT overcomplicate things. I'm simply demonstrating how straightforward it can be. My strategy is primarily based on the Power of 3 concept that you can find on @I_Am_The_ICT YouTube Channel.
 
ICT New York Morning Session A+ Setups based on Quarterly Theory:
Between 8:15 and 8:38 am (EST/EDT; during the Q3 micro cycle) look for a ICT Unicorn Setup.

I've made some additions to my trading arsenal since @traderdaye introduced the Quarterly Theory, but I've been using this setup since February 2023. I didn't have a name for it initially, but Quarterly Theory seems fitting to me.

I hope you can gain some new insights from my findings, which I've been diligently working on for almost a year. Nevertheless, the core of my strategy can be found on @traderdaye page and @I_Am_The_ICT YouTube Channel.
  
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Wednesday, April 3, 2024

ICT Syllabus for Beginners - How to Study ICT on YouTube | Darya Filipenka

This is my personal recommendation to study the ICT YouTube channel. I truly believe that this information is enough to understand how the ICT concepts works.  
 
 
ICT Syllabus for Beginners:

Part 1: 
Part 2: 
After Month 7: 
Part 3: 
Part 4: 
Part 5: Market Maker Models
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ICT Trading on NFP and FOMC Days | Darya Filipenka

 
» We wait for that initial run. 
I don't care if it goes higher or lower. 
I do know that the first run is generally the fake move. 
It's like a Judas swing. 
And then they keep it where it ran to. « 
 
Michael J. Huddleston, 2023

 
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Wednesday, March 27, 2024

ICT Silver Bullet Strategy | Darya Filipenka

The ICT Silver Bullet Strategy is a time-based algorithmic trading model for all assets. For the 10 AM Silver Bullet strategy, focus on 10-11 AM, using fair value gaps and Fibonacci levels for entry/stop adjustments, aiming for a minimum 3R risk-reward, and exit by 11 AM to maximize profits and minimize risks. 
 

3:00 AM - 4:00 AM New York Time
  1. A Silver Bullet trade begins with a directional move either up or down.
  2. Fair Value Gap (FVG): After the directional move, a Fair Value Gap is left behind. This gap is an important indicator for the Silver Bullet trade.
  3. Market Structure Shift (MSS) after taking liquidity. A Market Structure Shift is a shift in direction of price delivery. When price is going in a direction and shifts to the exactly opposite. It occurs when price takes out previous short-term lows or highs within a trend. Identifying these shifts allows for an understanding on which side of the market to be trading with. A Market Structure Shift must be energetic and leave behind displacement to ensure that market is looking to reverse.
  4. Displacement is a location in price where someone with a lot of money comes into the marketplace with a strong conviction to move price higher or lower very quickly. Displacement is characterized by strong and quick price movement that leave behind Fair Value Gaps.
  5. Entering the Fair Value Gap: Once the Fair Value Gap is identified, we enter inside it. This means we take a position in the market.
  6. Target and Exit: I aim for Asian Session Liquidity Level or Higher Time Frame Premium/Discount levels.
10:00 AM - 11:00 AM New York Time
The first thing we think about is the previous New York PM session. If, within the first 30 minutes after the market opens, we're not close to the PM range, we focus on the London Session Raid. This refers to the time between 2:00 AM and 5:00 AM, which is shown on the ETH chart. During the first 30 minutes after the market opens at 9:30 AM, we check where we stand compared to the previous PM session or London session. The market might go up or down, or it might stay stable. Then we wait for the Displacement between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM, which sets the stage for the Silver Bullet setup.
  1. Every day between 10 AM and 11 AM EST, identify an obvious pool of liquidity that has not been tapped into or engaged.
  2. Wait for displacement (use 1-3-5 minute charts) towards liquidity pool between that time. Find a Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the opposite of the targeted liquidity pool.
  3. Wait for price to trade back into the Fair Value Gap and then reprice out of the FVG towards the targeted pool of liquidity.
After identifying the Market Structure Shift (MSS), I recommend drawing an Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) retracement from the Swing Low (High) to the Swing High (Low). The optimal entry point for trades is typically at the 62% retracement level of that range. Once the trade is entered, the first target is typically set at the -27% extension level, and the second target is set at the -62% extension level.

2:00 PM - 3:00 PM New York Time
The first thing we focus on is the morning and lunch time trading sessions. Our goal is to identify the AM Session Buy Side and Sell Side Liquidity (BSL/SSL) or Lunch BSL/SSL once the PM Session starts (from 1:30 PM to 4:00 PM). This will serve as our reversal point during the afternoon Silver Bullet, where our target will be the opposite liquidity of the lunch/AM session. If it's Friday, our target can be 20-30% of the weekly range. This is known as the T.G.I.F. setup according to ICT.
  1. We wait for the Displacement between 2 PM and 3 PM EST, which sets the stage for the Silver Bullet setup.
  2. We look for a clear pool of untapped liquidity. It's recommended to pay attention to the liquidity levels during the AM and Lunch sessions.
  3. Find a Fair Value Gap.
  4. Wait for the price to trade back into the FVG and then move out of the FVG towards the targeted pool of liquidity.
Once again, we usually consider the AM Session BSL/SSL or NY Lunch BSL/SSL as our clear liquidity pool that has been taken. Then we wait for Market Structure Shift (MSS) and displacement.
 
Consider the 6 hour, the 90 minute, and the 22.5 minute cycles.
Expect highs and lows on the 1 minute chart around Micro-Quarter turns.

Reference: 

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Sunday, March 24, 2024

S&P 500 March-April 2024 Seasonality │ Jeff Hirsch & Wayne Whaley

After 5 months of solid gains, are markets ready for a pause? Bullish Presidential Cycle Sitting President Pattern flattens out the mid-February to late-March seasonal retreat considerably without 2020 in the average.

 'Best Six Months' ends in April.

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 9, 2023, through (March 21, 2024), DJIA is up 18.4% and S&P 500 is up 20.9%. Fueled by interest rate cut expectations and AI speculation, these gains are approximately double the historical average already and could continue to increase before the “Best Months” come to an end.


This AI-fueled bull market has enjoyed solid gains since last October and will likely continue to push higher in the near-term, but momentum does appear to be waning with the pace of gains slowing. With April and the end of DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months” quickly approaching we are going to begin shifting to a more cautious stance. We maintain our bullish stance for 2024, but that does not preclude the possibility of some weakness during spring and summer.
 
 
 
THE CORRELATION MODEL SEES A NEGATIVE LAST WEEK OF MARCH FOR THE S&P. Provided a time frame of interest, my correlation model calculates the Correlation Coefficients (-1 to +1) for the past performance of 4165 different time frames over the prior 3 months vs the performance for the time frame of interest in search of the period which has demonstrated the most barometric acumen in predicting the performance of the upcoming time frame of interest. 
 
This week I ask the model for it’s prognosis for the S&P in the last week of March. It responded that the prior ten calendar days (Mar10-24) had a very uncanny track record of forecasting the last week of March with those 2 time frames having a very strong NEGATIVE correlation which doesn’t bode well for next week given that March 10-24 was up 1.63% this year.  
 
Note the 3-10, March 24-31 performance in the far right category below in those 13 prior years where March 10-24 was greater than 1.2% for an avg wkly loss of 0.74% with 1% moves 1-7 to the downside.  This contrasts dramatically to the 11-2 performance when March 10-24 was less than -0.5%.  Fingers crossed that it is wrong this year. 
 
The outlook for April is much brighter. 
 
  
Reference: 
 Wayne Whaley (Mar 23, 2024) @ Twitter/X
 
[ oftentimes true: ]
 
In Bull Markets, New Moons are Bottoms, and Full Moons are Tops. 
In Bear Markets, New Moons are Tops, and Full Moons are Bottoms.
 
The SoLunar Rhythm in March 2024.
 
 
 
 
 
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Monday, March 18, 2024

ICT Liquidity Runs | Michael J. Huddleston

As price action traders, we're looking specifically for reference points where there is a high probability of liquidity resting in the marketplace. Related to ICT concepts, liquidity relates to buy orders and sell orders. It's as simple as that.

Below old lows, the market will seek liquidity for the sell side or the sell stops, taking orders out. Understanding this premise, when we view price action, it removes all of the retail-minded perspective but heavily leaning on indicator-based ideas. When we adopt these principles with study of price, it gives us the  truest and purest view of how price is delivered.

We have no confidence or direct relationship to our directional bias on price relative to anything except for price itself. If the market is moving from an old high, we know that there is going to be liquidity resting above that old high. If the market is moving from an old low, we know there is going to be a rest liquidity below those lows. It is just that simple. 
 
LRLR = Low Resistance Liquidity Run
HRLR = High Resistance Liquidity Run

As a trader you want to be trading when there is LRLR conditions because during LRLR conditions price will cleanly deliver to your target a lot quicker than HRLR conditions. If you're in a trade a lot longer than expected it is most likely because you are in HRLR conditions.

A LRLR will have clean highs or lows and for this example it means there's a large pool of liquidity resting above the Clean Highs/EQHs. This is where retail traders are placing their stops and smart money will look to take out these stops.


Another way you can look at LRLR is if there are EQH/Ls & multiple highs/lows lined up in a row (Trendline Liquidity). This is what #TheStrat traders call Pivot Machine Gun (PMG). It's called PMG because the algorithm spools higher like a machine gun triggering stop losses to get taken out.
 


So in this example, after SSL got raided, you're looking to go long inside of the FVG within the BPR to target the EQH. This is LRLR conditions.
 


When you have EQH/L, any PD arrays in-between where price is currently at to the EQH/L will have a low probability of holding. Smart money will target the largest liquidity pool which will be the EQH/EQL so price will either go through the PD array, or consolidate at the PD array then continue in the direction of the EQH/L. Now we will look at an example of HRLR. Typically with HRLR conditions there will be a stop hunt (fu) on buyside or sellside liquidity. Once there's a stop hunt it will leave a Point of Interest (POI) / PD array which is typically an orderblock or fair value gap.
 


Because there's a stop hunt (fu) which leaves a POI, the POI will act as resistance which will make it a HRLR condition. So in this example, instead of going long at the lows to target the high formed from (fu), I'd rather wait for price to reject off the POI to look for shorts.
 

1st pic below is M15 timeframe, 2nd pic below is H1 timeframe. You will see a M15 fu raid on BSL which leaves an H1 bearish orderblock making it HRLR. After the fu raid price went lower and when it retraced back up it rejected the orderblock then started to take out internal SSL.
 
 
 
HRLR conditions can also happen when indices ( $ES $NQ $YM ) is not in sync with each other or when it's not in moving inversely to $DXY (dollar). $GU & $EU are supposed to move inversely w/ $DXY as well so if they're moving together it is HRLR conditions.

Reference:
 
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