Showing posts with label Geoeconomics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Geoeconomics. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 5, 2023

The Chinese Communist Party | Martin Jacques


There is virtually zero knowledge or understanding of the Chinese Communist Party in the West. It is seen as a clone of the Soviet Communist Party. In reality it is entirely different. It has been extraordinarily successful, not just transforming China but is also in the process of changing the world. Everyone needs to know about the CPC and understand the reasons that lie behind its extraordinary success.
 
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Monday, July 3, 2023

The BRICS+ Currency | James G. Rickards

A new BRICS+ currency will be announced in Durban, South Africa, at the annual BRICS Leaders’ Summit Conference on August 22–24, 2023 [...] In all likelihood, the new BRICS+ currency would not be available in the form of paper notes for use in everyday transactions. It would be a digital currency on a permissioned ledger maintained by a new BRICS+ financial institution with encrypted message traffic to record payments due or owing by participating parties. (This is not a cryptocurrency because it is not decentralized, not maintained on a blockchain and not open to all parties without approval.)

BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, representing about 27% of the world's land
surface, 41% of the global population, and 32% of global GDP PPP.
The most important development in the BRICS system concerns the expansion of BRICS membership.
This has led to the informal adoption of the name BRICS+ for the expanded organization.
Currently 10 additional nations formally applied for membership:
Algeria, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
24 countries have expressed interest in joining the BRICS:
Afghanistan, Angola, Belarus, Comoros, Cuba, D.R. Congo, Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Honduras, Kazakhstan, Mexico,
Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Sudan, Syria, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Uganda, Uruguay, Venezuela
and Zimbabwe.
By every measure — population, landmass, energy output, GDP, food output and nuclear weapons — BRICS is not
just another multilateral debating society. They are a substantial and credible alternative to Western hegemony.
The BRICS are developing an optical fiber submarine telecommunications system that would connect its members.
It is being developed under the name BRICS Cable. Part of the motivation for BRICS Cable is to foil spying by
the U.S. National Security Agency on message traffic carried through existing cable networks.


[...] It appears likely that the new BRICS+ currency will be linked to a weight of gold. This plays to the strengths of BRICS members Russia and China, who are the two largest gold producers in the world and are ranked sixth and seventh respectively among the 100 nations with gold reserves.
 
[...] Reserve currencies are essentially the savings accounts of sovereign nations that have earned them through trade surpluses. These balances are not held in currency form but in the form of securities. When analysts say the dollar is the leading reserve currency, what they actually mean is that countries hold their reserves in securities denominated in a specific currency. For 60% of global reserves, those holdings are U.S. Treasury securities denominated in dollars. The reserves are not actually in dollars; they’re in securities. As a result, you cannot be a reserve currency without a large, well-developed sovereign bond market. No country in the world comes close to the U.S. Treasury market in terms of size, variety of maturities, liquidity, settlement, derivatives and other necessary features.

[June 29, 2023]
Jail break acceleration:
Ethiopia, one of Africa's fastest-growing economies, is
aiming to become the latest brick in the firewall against U.S.-imperialism.

[...] The BRICS+ currency offers the opportunity to leapfrog the Treasury market and create a deep, liquid bond market that could challenge Treasuries on the world stage almost from thin air. The key is to create a BRICS+ currency bond market in 20 or more countries at once, relying on retail investors in each country to buy the bonds. The BRICS+ bonds would be offered through banks and postal offices and other retail outlets. They would be denominated in BRICS+ currency but investors could purchase them in local currency at market-based exchange rates. Since the currency is gold backed it would offer an attractive store of value compared with inflation- or default-prone local instruments in countries like Brazil or Argentina. The Chinese in particular would find such investments attractive since they are largely banned from foreign markets and are overinvested in real estate and domestic stocks. [...] The sheer volume of retail investing in BRICS+-denominated instruments in India, China, Brazil and Russia and other countries at the same time could absorb surpluses generated through world trade in the BRICS+ currency. In short, the way to create an instant reserve currency is to create an instant bond market using your own citizens as willing buyers.
 
The United States exploits the world's wealth with the help of "seigniorage."
It costs only about 17 cents to produce a 100 dollar bill, but other countries
had to pony up 100 dollar of actual goods in order to obtain one (HERE)
 
[...] This entire turn of events — introduction of a new gold-backed currency, rapid adoption as a payment currency and gradual use as a reserve asset currency — will begin on August 22, 2023, after years of development. Except for direct participants, the world has mostly ignored this prospect. The result will be an upheaval of the international monetary system coming in a matter of weeks.

 
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Wednesday, February 22, 2023

India's Role in the New Multi-Polar World Order | Timur Fomenko

Timur Fomenko (21 Feb, 2023) - The truth, though, is that they don’t truly see India as an equal. They hope, given the foundations of its political system, that India will one day be “the same” as they are, and anticipate a course of liberalization and political change under their guidance, similar to what was once expected from Russia and China. But, if India fails to follow that route, or continues to grow as an autonomous power which does not consent to Western dominance, the chances are that the West’s tolerance for the country, and especially for Modi’s government, will run out.
 
At the helm of a superpower of the future: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

What happens when India becomes wealthy and powerful and does not eagerly accept the Western-centric political world order? Also, what if it seeks to be a geopolitical power in its own terms? What happens when Western countries begin to perceive India not as a partner in need of help and support, but as a rival in a similar vein to how they view China and, of course, Russia? What happens when the US-led Indo-Pacific initiative starts to appear not as something that would incorporate and help India, but something that could also potentially contain its military rise?

India’s current foreign policy is often described as “strategic autonomy,” but in recent years the country has been overly friendly with the US to exploit mutual anti-China sentiment in a bid to gain economic opportunities for itself. At the same time, there has been a domestic political shift in India which orients it away from westernization. The West’s good will for New Delhi, a superpower of the future, will one day run out, and the agenda will shift towards containment. India needs to look at what is happening now with China and be ready when that day comes.

Tuesday, February 7, 2023

On the Price of Russian Oil | Igor Sechin

The EU will no longer set prices for Russia’s flagship Urals oil blend, now that Asia is the largest consumer of western-sanctioned Russian crude, the head of the country’s oil major Rosneft, Igor Sechin, said on Monday.

An EU embargo on seaborne exports of crude accompanied by price caps on oil and petroleum products originating from Russia has triggered a reshuffle in global oil supply. In a matter of months, Moscow rerouted most of its oil flows that used to go to Europe, to Asian markets. The country has ramped up its seaborne oil shipments to China, India and Türkiye at the expense of Western nations.
 

Oil exports to India alone jumped 33 times in December, with Russia now the country’s largest supplier, replacing Iraq. About 70% of Urals cargoes loaded last month went to New Delhi, according to Reuters calculations.

If Russian oil does not enter the European market, then there is no reference price. Reference prices will be formed where oil volumes actually go,” Sechin pointed out, speaking at the India Energy Week forum.

The Russian government is now discussing how to calculate Russia's taxable oil price following the import ban and price caps set by the EU and G7 countries. Currently, for tax purposes, the average price for Urals on the world market is used, in particular in the ports of Augusta (Italy) and Rotterdam (Netherlands). But due to sanctions, Russian oil is practically not supplied there. Sechin also suggested that “futures contracts, futures settlements” should be abandoned at the first stage in order to regulate market indicators. To stress his point, the head of Russia’s oil giant even quoted from the Bible. “As it is written in Ecclesiastes, "What is crooked cannot be made straight. And what is lacking cannot be counted.

Meanwhile, Asian buyers have ramped up imports of a wide variety of Russian crude oil, including lesser-known Arctic grades. Two other popular blends, ESPO and Sokol, have been trading above the Western price ceiling of $60 a barrel, at $66 and $71 per barrel respectively, as of Tuesday.
 
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Tuesday, October 4, 2022

On Fiscal Mismanagement | Martin A. Armstrong

Martin A. Armstrong (Sep 13, 2022) - Don’t mix the problem of the quantity of money with what is actually money. They are two separate issues. The theory that inflation is tied to the quantity of money truly extends back to when metal was the money supply. The sudden discovery of America led to a huge wave of inflation in Europe. The FISCAL MISMANAGEMENT of Spain led to its total collapse. They were borrowing against the next shipload of gold coming in from the New World. They would not wait even to get it in, and they were so excited to spend it before it arrived.
 

[...] The amazing Decline and Fall of Spain is perhaps the greatest lesson if someone wishes to write “How NOT to Manage Government For Dummies.” The Spanish became both the richest nation and the greatest debtor, not that dissimilar from the United States, and succeeded in ending up as the poorest. Spain became a serial defaulter beginning in 1557, followed by 1570, 1575, 1596, 1607, and 1647 ending in a 3rd world status without hyperinflation. Their economic model was one of conquest and plunder rather than developing domestic industry and a viable economy.

[...] The endless increase in the supply of dollars is not the problem [...] Our problem is NOT that money is paper. The problem is those in charge of the government [...] No matter what is money, it CAN NOT be fixed in value. It must be allowed to float, for there are always trends that shift back and forth. Therefore, the relentless creation of money is not because they are paper dollars. As I said, you are blaming the gun rather than the shooter. This is fiscal mismanagement created by Marxism, where the politicians no longer know how to run for office without bribing the people for their votes. This is the system that is completely doomed.

Monday, October 3, 2022

Schwab’s Idea Will Fail | Martin A. Armstrong

Martin A. Armstrong (Oct 03, 2022) - Now insofar as the sovereign debt default, we are looking at governments collapsing which will take down banks that must retain reserves in government bonds. Klaus Schwab is an academic. He has ZERO real-world experience. His ideas will collapse just like Marx for the one element both ignore is human nature. It cost over 200 million lives for Marx to get his theory in place. Communism collapsed because without curiosity and freedom to explore, talk, and think, all advancement of society comes to an end.

Klaus Schwab

Schwab’s idea will fail because the setup is different this time. Marxism succeeded because in Russia serfdom ended only during the 1860s. Therefore, the common people DID NOT own anything and it made sense to raid the rich. This time, people own houses and cars, and they save with pensions and to help their children. This time the common people would have to surrender all their assets so Schwab’s Marxist theories can be implemented. It is a whole different board game this time around.