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Credits: Seasonal Charts

DJIA vs 18 Year Cycle | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Nov 16, 2016) - The peak of the 18 year cycle should be
expected sometimes in late January early February 2017 (see also HERE)

Sandy Jadeja: September 26th Potential Market Crash

Source: Business Insider (Aug 26, 2016)

JFYI: Someone just wrote me stating that In an earlier version of the above Business Insider article
Sandy Jadeja's crash date was not September 26th but the 15th! However, couldn't find the earlier version.

Alphee Lavoie's Neural Network-Forecast for the SPY (inverted correclation - HERE)

Continuation Broadening Patterns Extremely Rare | Peter Brandt

Peter L. Brandt (Aug 23, 2016) - "Continuation broadening patterns are extremely rare.
Broadening patterns more often end up as reversals." See also HERE

DJIA: Bullish Into Q1-2 Next Year | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Aug 19, 2016) - I am expecting a peak [in the DJIA] in the first-second quarter of next year [2017] and I believe it will be the peak of this century [...] Volatility will likely make a new historic high once the peak is realized as will be presented shortly. Let us first look at the DJIA from an Elliott wave perspective: 

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I believe that we are terminating an impulsive advance from an Elliott wave perspective, this impulsive advance is the fifth wave of grandsupercycle degree [...] Another scary aspect of the chart above is the extended fifth wave that occurred from the lows in 1974 to where we stand today. R.N. Elliott warned about what usually occurs after a fifth wave extension since it is usually followed by a crash. Once we look at the projection lines we will notice such an outcome is highly likely based on our volatility forecast. The target for the correction after a fifth wave extension is the range of the second wave which brings us to the 1000-770 price range. Such a forecast for the Dow is certainly scary and I am not brave enough to make such a cataclysmic call which is why I will wait for the patterns to unfold to obtain more accurate price targets. It is important to know that the US stock market is likely to be the out-performer as indicated in one of my previous posts (The American S&P and German Dax ratio) in which I analyzed a ratio of the DJIA with the German DAX. If such a target is expected in terms of the DJIA one can only imagine what will occur to the European indices. I still prefer a German DAX short once the peak is in since one will make money from a higher EURO and a larger percentage drop. Let us now take a look at the shorter term wave count.

The shorter term wave count suggests that the DJIA is in its fifth wave of intermediate degree to terminate the primary degree rally from 2009 which will in itself terminate a cycle degree advance that started in 1974 which will itself terminate a supercycle degree advance that started in 1932 which will itself terminate a grand supercycle degree move that started in 1784. The cycles mentioned on many previous posts on this blog support that fact. I believe that such a large and historic top will end in weakness rather than strength. This is why I am preferring an ending diagonal scenario for the fifth wave of intermediate degree. I am certain that the correction that is about to unfold will be the largest correction in US history. This is a time to be cautious from equities and to try our best to avoid the calamity.

The first chart below presents an overlay of the 1920s bull market with the one seen since late 2011. Both bull markets occurred under a similar cyclical circumstance hence their high correlation (9 year cycle). The correlation is almost 80%! This projection line suggests that a peak is likely in the first quarter of next year. This conclusion is supported by a projection line of the 18 month cycle that started in 1971 which is presented below.

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The correlation of the 18 month cycle of the early 70's bull market while gold was selling off is very high and similar to the bull market that started early this year (middle chart above). They both occurred under a similar cyclical circumstance and hence their 80%+ correlation. Both indicators are bullish going into the new year and suggests that the current 'worst' part of the year is likely to disappoint those that strictly follow the annual cycle as it has proven to do so already.
 
The third chart above shows my volatility projection as well as the projection line of the late 20's. The volatility indicator was obtained from two 9 year cycles of a similar cyclical circumstance to where we stand today. The volatility projection suggests that the crash is likely to be drastic going into the low that is expected in 2020 which is when peak volatility is expected.

Artificial Intelligence Long Range Forecasts | Stock Indices | Crude Oil | Gold

FFC Long Range Forecasts rely exclusively on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to analyze and model.
Source: Financial Forecast Center, LLC.

Red dots represent monthly mean prices. First dot after the dashed vertical is June 2016, last one November 2016.

 

 

 

MarketVector Financial Forecasts produces long range forecasts using Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA).
MSSA to decompose the time series into a trend component and many cyclical components. The decomposed
components of the time series are then projected forward in time.

Chartsedge  provides stock market forecasts are based on cycle
data which has been analyzed by a Pattern Recognition Program.

McVerry Report generates 5-Day U.S. Market
Forecasts based on Artificial Intelligence.

DJIA vs Uranus (heliocentric) moving 1 Degree Steps from July 24, 2002 Low

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

Presidential Cycle + Decennial Cycle + SoLunar Map | April 2016

SPX vs Presidential Cycle + Decennial Cycle | January - November 2016

Presidential Cycle + Seasonal Pattern + Decennial Cycle for March 2016

Seasonal Cycle Mar 01 - Mar 31 (1900-2015) = +0.82%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Mar 01 - Mar 31 = +1.96%
4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Mar 01 - Mar 31 = +1.95%
SoLunar Map: Feb 26 (Fri), Mar 01 (Tue), Mar 05 (Sat), Mar 08 (Tue), Mar 12 (Sat),
Mar 16 (Wed), Mar 19 (Sat), Mar 23 (Wed), Mar 27 (Sun), Mar 30 (Wed)

Seasonal Cycle Jan 01 - May 31 (1900-2015) = +2.82%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - May 31 = +3.49%
4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - May 31 = -0.97%

Seasonal Cycle (1900-2015) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.99%
4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.52%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.98%

4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.52%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.98%
1st Year of the Presidential Cycle (2017) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +5.48%
7th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2017) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +4.82%
2nd Year of the Presidential Cycle (2018) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +2.99%
8th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2018) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +13.13%
3rd Year of the Presidential Cycle (2019) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +10.12%
9th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2019) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +10.62%

DJIA vs Cycle Composite

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

DJIA vs 4 Lunar Month Cycle

This methodology does not predict the magnitude of swings.

DJIA In 4th Longest Bull Market Since 1900 - UBS: Sell Stocks, Buy Gold!

Bear markets are defined by a market decline of 20% and more. It’s a fact that since its March 2009 low, with 82 months and a performance of 220%, the DJIA now trades in its 4th longest and 5th strongest bull market since 1900. So from this angle alone we suggest the 2009 bull cycle has reached a mature stage [...] since 1937 the average downside in a 7-year cycle decline was 34%. 

[...] As of 2017, gold could profit from the US dollar moving in a major top and starting a bear market [...] In 2015, the bounce in gold was weaker than expected. However, in all these cases we made it clear that we just expect a bear market rally before resuming its dominant cyclical bear trend. Generally, our cyclical roadmap and our long-term call on gold of the last few years has not changed. A potential bottom in 2016 bottom could be a rather powerful bottom, since together with a four-year cycle low we have also an eight-year cycle low projection for this year. In this context we expect a potential 2016 low in gold to be the basis of a new multi-year bull market. Source: UBS (Jan 06, 2016)

SPX vs 7th Years of Presidents Cycle - Seasonality After Thanksgiving

Jeff Hirsch (Nov 25, 2015) - Now that Thanksgiving is upon us and early December gains tend to fade mid-month,
consider closing out those short term longs into strength today, Friday and next week.

Credits: Chris Carolan

DJIA vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

See also HERE

7 Year Cycle Bottoms

JustSignals (Nov 4, 2015) - Note that in the 20th century the "5th" year of the decade was a strong year.  In the early part of the 20th century this had been brought to light by the late W.D. Gann and an analysis of the decennial patterns throughout the century.  In addition, there are two 10 year cycle patterns.  One bottoms in years ending in a "2" and tops in a year ending in a "7" and the other bottoms in a year ending in a "4" and tops in a year ending in a "9".  This does not happen ALL the time, but it does happen often.  In fact you will see that when the "7 year cycle" falls on a year ending in a "5" that the bottom falls in the year before ending in a "4" probably because that cycle may be more dominant at the time. Let's now see the "7 year cycles" going back to the early 1900's courtesy of Worden Bros. Charts. A green arrow notes the bottoms and since 1932 was a very dominant bottom the count back and forward use that year as a starting point.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 














Each time the "7 year cycle" bottomed the strength varied.  It was not the dominant cycle each time, but, there were many times it was and it made a meaningful bottom. Will this cycle continue and make a bottom in 2016?  This cycle is now being watched by many many people.  The market will not make it easy for this cycle to bottom.  It is probable that head fake may be seen along the way.  Be prepared and be careful.

DJIA 2015 vs DJIA 1896 (Correlation 87%)

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution