Friday, October 14, 2022

Periods When to Make Money | Benner Cycle Projection into 2023 Major Low

Samuel Benner was a prosperous American farmer wiped out financially by the 1873 panic and a hog cholera epidemic. In retirement, he set about to establish the causes and timing of fluctuations in the economy. 
 
Edward R. Dewey (1967):
» If you had used these dates for trading, your percentage gains between 1872 and 1939
would have been 50 times your losses!
«

In 1875 he published a book called
"Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices" forecasting commodity prices for the period 1876 to 1904. Many - not all - of these forecasts were fairly accurate. The Benner Cycle includes:
  • A (upper line): "Years in which Panics have occurred and will occur again." A 54 year cycle alternating every 18, 20 and 16 years.
  • B (middle line): "Years of Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds." Cycles alternating every 8, 9 and 10 years.
  • C (lower line): "Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a good time to buy Stocks, 'Corner Lots', Goods, etc, and hold till the 'Boom' reaches the years of good times; then unload". A 27 year cycle in pig iron prices with lows every 7, 11, 9 years and peaks in the order 8, 9, 10 years (B - middle line).
Benner's cycle projections align with the latest analysis of the "Foundation for the Study of Cycles" and are pointing to a major stock market low in the US in 2023. David Hickson's Hurst cycle analysis projects this low to March of 2023 and Martin Armstrong to April 11, 2023 (Tue).
 
» Periods When to Make Money « ; the original business card of George Tritch Hardware Co.
Apparently, the diagram was compiled by George Tritch in 1872, but was not attributed to
him by Samuel Benner in 1875.
 
References:
 

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

Astrological Methods of Forecasting the DJIA | Carol S. Mull

Carol S. Mull (1989) - Humankind moves through periods of optimism, expansion, anxiety, depression and panic, as dictated by the magnetic winds that govern the universe. These cycles affect market trading and can be forecast by observing and analyzing planetary phenomena. There are at least twenty different planetary, solar, or lunar movements that affect the market in a significant way. I know of no computer program that utilizes more than five or six of them. Below is a summary of the most useful, listed from those with the shortest effect through those lasting decades.
 
Cafe Astrology .com - This Month’s Ephemeris

A FEW HOURS OR MINUTES
Planet to Midheaven: You may have noticed that the DIJA will move up or down at about the same time each day for a week or more. This is because the planet and its aspects that is directly overhead the market location at any given time-of-day will affect the mood of the trader. Hence, if Saturn is crossing the Midheaven of the New York Stock Exchange location of Manhattan Island in New York at about 1:00 p.m., the market may have opened up, but will tend to drop from noon until 1:00 p.m., and may then turn up again. This trend will continue for about a week, with the timing being a little later each day until it finally moves beyond the time of the market closing. Jupiter in the same position will bring a rise in market prices. Neptune over the market Midheaven will bring increased trading in oil stocks. Uranus over the Midheaven will produce an erratic market. 
 
Planetary Hours Calculator

I know a daytrader who runs an astrological chart on his computer every fifteen minutes for New York City and then acts accordingly. This planet-to-Midheaven indicator is good for the hourly wobbles in the market and should always be considered against the general trend. 
 
Solar, Lunar and Planets Ephemerides - Rise - Midheaven Transit - Set

Sun and Moon Aspects
: The astrological aspects that are easiest to learn and use are those between the Sun and the Moon. These can be found in an Almanac, ephemeris or astrological calendar. The Sun and Moon are conjunct at the New Moon and, unless overshadowed by heavier aspects, the market can be expected to move upward at that time.
 
Monthly Lunation Cycle 8 Lunar Sun-Moon 45° Phases

The Sun and Moon are in square aspect (90°) at the first quarter and the last quarter and a bear market is the normal result. The Sun and Moon are in opposition (180°) at the Full Moon, which usually brings a somewhat bullish market, but is not as positive as the New Moon. Sun/Moon trines (120°) come halfway between the opposition and the first quarter or last quarter. They are indicators of bull markets.

Eclipses are really just super New or Full Moons and unless aspected, produce little market change at the time. However, they sensitize a certain degree in the sky and whenever another planet comes into aspect with that point, LOOK OUT. The Noon or Mercury to that point will produce an erratic unpredictable market. When Mars comes into aspect with that point, the market is likely to fall sharply.

TimeAndDate.com - Eclipses and Transits Visible in New York

The Total Picture - Positive or Negative: A tool used by several financial astrologers is to tally all the aspects in the sky on a given day. This method is described by both LCdr. David Williams in his book, Financial Astrology, and by Donald Bradley in his book, Stock Market Prediction, but most users put their own construction on the methods described by Williams and Bradley.

The usual method is to list the aspects that are within a degree of orb on a given day over New York City within market hours, plus the more important ones that fall after or before the market is open. A numerical value is then assigned to each aspect. Conjunctions are ten; sextiles are 3; trines 10; squares 8, and oppositions six. In general, conjunctions, sextiles and trines are positive, whiles squares and oppositions are negative but this can be overridden by the nature of the planets involved. Saturn and Mars are always negative. Jupiter, Venus and Sun are always positive.
 
Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices

When the list is complete, add your negative column and then your positive column. If you have -86 and +13, you should definitely expect a down-day at the market. Plus 72 and minus 14 would indicate a bull market. This same method of tallying aspects can be used on a hourly basis or even fifteen minutes.

A FEW DAYS
Moon’s Daily Motion: The average daily motion of the Moon is 13.17749 degrees, but it fluctuates from 11.54’ to 14.36’, gaining in daily speed for nine to thirteen days and then losing speed for nine to thirteen days, depending on the season of the year. Whenever the Moon is gaining in daily speed the market tends to move upward; whenever the Moon is losing daily velocity, the market tends to move downward. This can account for small wobbles on a general trend line. (I find it of interest that this average thirteen day motion correlates with the Mayan calendar of thirteen day cycles, which they grouped into 260 day cycles (13x20). I am working on an overall plan to tie the market to the Mayan calendar, but it is not complete.)
 
Sun-Moon Daily Arc Move on Sphere = Longitude Speed

Sunspots
: Periods of solar prominence (sunspots) pour forth energy, causing all earthly activities to increase, including stock market trading. The usual result of this stimulus is a major market turning point, either up or down. Increased sunspot activity occurs whenever the planets Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Jupiter are on the same side of the Sun as the Earth. The greatest influence of all this tidal-like force occurs when Jupiter and Venus are in a heliocentric line-up with the Earth at 0°, 45°, and 90°, but lesser activity produces the well-known Dow cycles of 89 weeks, 124 weeks, and 208 weeks [see also HERE].
 
Jan Alvestad - Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

A very good illustration of this market indicator occurred on October 19, 1987, when the market dropped 505 points. Jupiter was exactly opposite the Sun, increasing solar flares and market timing--thus forcing a market turning point. Another example is October 27, 1997, when Jupiter was square the Sun. So, be aware that heliocentric aspects to the Sun mark major market turning points, both up and down.

Powerful Aspects: Certain aspects are especially powerful and will influence the market for five to seven days. Examples of powerful benevolent aspects are Jupiter or Venus in aspect to Uranus, Sun, or Mercury. Powerful negative aspects are Saturn to any planet and Mars to anything except Venus and Jupiter.

National Astronomical Observatory of Japan - Celestial Phenomena

A FEW WEEKS
The Planet Mercury: Mercury does rule trading and it alone can give you a reasonably good forecast. Whenever you see a Sun-Mercury conjunction, you may expect a high volume day that is very bullish. These happen about every six weeks. Mercury's daily motion is a very important market indicator. That is, whatever the daily motion of Mercury is increasing, the market is likely to move upward and whenever Mercury's velocity is decreasing, the market trend is downward. This has nothing to do with retrograde or forward motion.
 
Retrograde Planets Calendar

It is the increase or decrease of velocity that counts and the direction does not matter. When Mercury is stationery or nearly so, the market has a very low volume and is bearish. If Mercury is rapidly gaining in velocity, the market gains rapidly. If Mercury is gaining velocity slowly, the market is up a little. The tone of the market can be discerned by the actions of Mercury .

Seasonal Highs and Lows: The market is usually up January 9th through the 18th. This is because the Sun reaches 23°-25° Capricorn in mid-January, which produces a grand trine with Mercury at 24° Taurus in the NY Stock Exchange chart, Sun at 26° Taurus in the NYSE chart, Neptune at 20° Virgo in the chart of the USA, and Pluto at 24° Capricorn in the chart of the USA. A similar effect happens each September, when transit Sun reaches 18°-27° Virgo.
 
In fact, the degree 24°-26° Taurus is important to stock exchanges around the world. The New York Stock Exchange has Sun and Mercury in that area, Tokyo Exchange has Sun, Amsterdam Exchange has Sun and Pluto, Budapest Exchange has Venus, Lisbon Exchange has Jupiter, London Exchange has Sun, Melbourne Exchange has Venus and Uranus, Toronto Exchange has Jupiter opposite, Zurich Exchange has Venus and Pluto. It is easy to see why the markets so often act in unison.

Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees of the Sun

LONG TERM TRENDS
Venus Daily Motion: For longer term trends, I depend upon the increasing and decreasing of the velocity of Venus in the same way as the velocity of Moon and Mercury were used. This indicator points toward a lower 1999 than 1998. 
 
Venus' Daily Motion

The Outer Planets
: Very long term trends changes are marked by the aspects of Saturn, Jupiter, Uranus, and Neptune. A very good book about this is THE EGG OF COLUMBUS by George Bayer, which pretends to be describing a banquet or feast. If you set charts for the dates given in the book, you will find exact aspects of the outer planets. Enough said? These long-term trends have been charted as cycles of varying lengths, but for exact work, you will need to work from the helio-centric aspects of the outer planets.

HeavensAbove.com - Planet Summary

Mars Aspects: The planet Mars acts as a "trigger" for certain undesirable long-term stock market movements, whenever this planet is square or opposite one of the outer planets. That is, the outer planetary aspects set the long-term trends, but Mars produces the action. The following aspects are especially bad for the market: Mars conjunct Saturn, Mars square Neptune, Mars opposite Jupiter, Mars in opposition, regardless of the planet. In contrast, stock prices have consistently risen during the thirty days just before a conjunction of Mars with Jupiter or Mercury.

Geocentric and Heliocentric Aspect Search Engine (500BC - 2500AD)

CONCLUSION
These are some of the more important astro indicators of DJIA trends. Applying them is not a quick study. Instead, it requires several years of blending the various factors, until a certain "wisdom" develops. Above all, you should always be aware of both political and economic happenings around the world for these will provide the background for your research.

 
See also:

Monday, October 10, 2022

Lunar Phases and Stock Returns | Kathy Yuan et al.

Kathy Yuan, Lu Zheng & Qiaoqiao Zhu (2002) - This paper investigates the relation between lunar phases and stock returns for a sample of 48 countries. We find strong global evidence that stock returns are lower on days around a full moon than on days around a new moon. Constructing a lunar trading strategy, we find that the magnitude of this return difference is roughly 4.2 percent per annum.  
 
 
Since lunar phases are likely to be related to investor mood and are not related to economic activities, our findings are thus not consistent with the predictions of traditional asset pricing theories that assume fully rational investors. The positive association we find between lunar phases and stock returns suggests that it might be valuable to go beyond a rational asset pricing framework to explore the psychological effects of investor behavior on stock returns. 

Figure 1 - Average Daily Return of the Global Portfolio by Lunar Dates

Figure 2 - Average Daily Stock Returns of Global Portfolio by Lunar Windows

Figure 3 - Distribution of Full Moon Days on Days of Week

Tuesday, October 4, 2022

On Fiscal Mismanagement | Martin A. Armstrong

Martin A. Armstrong (Sep 13, 2022) - Don’t mix the problem of the quantity of money with what is actually money. They are two separate issues. The theory that inflation is tied to the quantity of money truly extends back to when metal was the money supply. The sudden discovery of America led to a huge wave of inflation in Europe. The FISCAL MISMANAGEMENT of Spain led to its total collapse. They were borrowing against the next shipload of gold coming in from the New World. They would not wait even to get it in, and they were so excited to spend it before it arrived.
 

[...] The amazing Decline and Fall of Spain is perhaps the greatest lesson if someone wishes to write “How NOT to Manage Government For Dummies.” The Spanish became both the richest nation and the greatest debtor, not that dissimilar from the United States, and succeeded in ending up as the poorest. Spain became a serial defaulter beginning in 1557, followed by 1570, 1575, 1596, 1607, and 1647 ending in a 3rd world status without hyperinflation. Their economic model was one of conquest and plunder rather than developing domestic industry and a viable economy.

[...] The endless increase in the supply of dollars is not the problem [...] Our problem is NOT that money is paper. The problem is those in charge of the government [...] No matter what is money, it CAN NOT be fixed in value. It must be allowed to float, for there are always trends that shift back and forth. Therefore, the relentless creation of money is not because they are paper dollars. As I said, you are blaming the gun rather than the shooter. This is fiscal mismanagement created by Marxism, where the politicians no longer know how to run for office without bribing the people for their votes. This is the system that is completely doomed.

Monday, October 3, 2022

Schwab’s Idea Will Fail | Martin A. Armstrong

Martin A. Armstrong (Oct 03, 2022) - Now insofar as the sovereign debt default, we are looking at governments collapsing which will take down banks that must retain reserves in government bonds. Klaus Schwab is an academic. He has ZERO real-world experience. His ideas will collapse just like Marx for the one element both ignore is human nature. It cost over 200 million lives for Marx to get his theory in place. Communism collapsed because without curiosity and freedom to explore, talk, and think, all advancement of society comes to an end.

Klaus Schwab

Schwab’s idea will fail because the setup is different this time. Marxism succeeded because in Russia serfdom ended only during the 1860s. Therefore, the common people DID NOT own anything and it made sense to raid the rich. This time, people own houses and cars, and they save with pensions and to help their children. This time the common people would have to surrender all their assets so Schwab’s Marxist theories can be implemented. It is a whole different board game this time around.

Tuesday, September 27, 2022

The Bullish & the Bearish Market Maker Cycle

  


The weekly pattern does not imply the use of a weekly time frame. It refers to the pattern that is seen in a 15, 60 or 240 minute chart over a period of a week. However, market makers also have seasonal variations of price movement and so it can be seen on longer time frames, though it is probably too slow to be traded effectively.
 
 
A typical pattern of behaviour particularly when examining the Three Day Cycle is to be able to identify a peak high followed by three moves down and a reversal which forms the peak low. Each time price moves down a level they can be referred to as achieving or making either a Level I, Level II or a Level III move. Level I and Level II have relatively similar patterns of behaviour (1-2-3 stop hunt). However Level III tends to be choppy with a wide range and represents an area of profit-taking for the institutions and signifies the beginning of an accumulation period for another cycle. 
 
The reasons for this behaviour can be understood if you consider what happens during the rundown:
  1. On day one the retail traders are selling and the institutions buying from the retail traders.
  2. On day two the retail traders are selling and again the institutions are buying.
  3. However, on day three the retail traders are again interested in selling and the institutions are buying up heavily.
  4. Now price moves up aggressively triggering stops and taking a profit. (In effect, the market makers are using a scaling-in method to book their profit).
  5. Following a Level III pullback price becomes choppy and continues because of what happens with the trader’s psychological adaptation to loss. After the market has run down for three days and traders have taken losses, these individuals react by pulling away from the market quite literally and having a few days off before coming back to trade. During this period the market is choppy and relatively stagnant until the traders have returned to play in the game again.
To remember the patterns the following phrases are useful:
  1. "After a big drop the market must chop"
  2. "After three days of drop the market must chop"
  3. "After a big rise the market needs more guys"
  4. "After three days of rise the market needs more guys"
These patterns are similar in different time frames. The areas of reversal are often synchronized so that they occur at the same time in different time frames. Using this knowledge it is possible to convert a spot trade into a swing trade when you enter it from a peak formation high to a peak formation low

Count the levels to know what part of the cycle price is currently in. Entering trades at peak reversals is best. One should only take a long position when the Low of the Day (LOD) or High of the Day (HOD) is clear. This is the only place that has a high level of certainty in directional movement. Look for a midweek reversal which will generally correlate with one or both of the intraday reversals. With an awareness of the longer cycle and assuming one is in the correct place within the cycle, it is possible to convert a spot trade to a swing trade from one of the 3 day cycle peaks to the other given an appropriate entry. This would involve going from one peak formation high to the next peak low and may take several days.

On an intraday trade, it is still important to understand the current position within this larger cycle. This will help to make a judgement about how far a run may last. For example, if price has just passed the peak high and is at a Level I accumulation then an intraday long trade after a bearish stop hunt, while valid, will not be likely to produce consistent results. Hence, it is a good idea to not take trades against the longer trend at a Level I accumulation.
 

The Accumulation Phase: This phase commences with the resetting of a daily high/low. It occurs at 5pm ET which is the beginning of the “Dharma” period. The Dharma period occurs after the US markets have closed and before the London markets have opened. During this period there tends to be little activity and the market just cycles back and forth between two price points. This occurs because Bank A will buy a quantity of currency from Bank B [1]. This causes price to rise. This is followed by bank B selling the same currency to Bank C [2] and this causes price to fall. This process goes around in circles and so the price simply oscillates back and forth. After a while, the range begins to widen [3]. This has the effect of triggering pending orders placed by breakout traders. So positions become committed and gradually accumulate as more and more traders begin to ‘take the bait’. However, when they are triggered, price is quickly pulled away and they will often be stopped out on the other side of the range which is also widening. 

 
The Stop Hunt - also defining the HOD and LOD: Sometimes between 1 – 4am ET, the market makers make a stop hunt. The stop hunt involves a deliberate movement outside of the range to what will become the high or low of the day. The move usually occurs in three pushes which can be as simple as three candles though you will sometimes see a small pause in the form of a pullback in the middle of this. The stop hunt has two main objectives:
  1. Take out existing stops, that is: collecting buy side and sell side liquidity.
  2. Encourage traders to commit to positions in a direction that is opposite to where the real trend is going to be.
This represents the high/low of the day (HOD/LOD). Once the HOD/LOD has been hit:
  1. The spread is opened up by a few pips. This allows traders orders to be triggered outside their normal boundaries and they will be holding negative positions from the outset.
  2. It is common to see price undergo a further period of accumulation lasting 30 to 90 minutes which encourages traders to take further positions. When there are enough positions, the price is moved in the direction of the true trend and their stops will be triggered.
  3. There is often a second move to the HOD/LOD though most of the time it will fail to take it out (so as to not give those who got in a profitable position to escape from). This forms the typical W or M pattern.
This is the preferred point of entry for most of these trades, particularly the second leg of the M or W. It is relatively slow moving and so there should be no reason to rush or impulsively take a trade. 
 
 
Other behaviors at the HOD and LOD Reversal: Market makers induce traders to take the wrong direction by using sharp and aggressive moves near the high or low of the day. One of the ways of identifying that you are in the right place is that the market will seem to be quiet, in consolidation and make a sharp move out of the range, faking "the breakout".

If a trade is taken in the area of the HOD/LOD one might notice that price is moving around but the position changes little. Looking at the price board one will see that it is "flickering red and blue" with lots of changes suggesting that there is lots of activity but in fact there is little and a reversal is imminent. Another observation during this period is that the spread widens. This is done so that a broader range of orders can be collected and accumulated during this period, making it even more difficult for traders to take profit as they are in a losing position right from the outset. The diagram below demonstrates what happens to the spread during this period.
 

But these patterns do fail sometimes. This occurs when there has not been enough volume to make it worth their while to take a reversal. In these situations that price is moved to the next level to further induce positions to be taken in the wrong direction, against what is to become true trend. This is called the extended stop hunt.
 
Extended Stop Hunt: When price is pushed outside of the Asian range and comes to rest 25 to 50 pips beyond the range, the market makers' motivation is to generate a stop hunt. However, if as a result of this move the accumulation of positions is inadequate for their purposes, then the stop hunt will be extended. This means that price will be pushed beyond this Level in the direction of the technical trend in an effort to induce more traders to enter positions and build up the positions required.

Like before, this move will be in the 25 – 50 pip range and be comprised of 3 candles or 3 pushes. But also like before this is not necessarily the case and more or less are also possible. Again the trader must use their own judgement and discretion. Therefore, identifying that after a period of time the stop hunt has not led to a reversal one should scratch the trade. An appropriate period of time is 2 hours following the second leg of an M or W pattern. It the trader has not moved in the expected direction by this time, something is wrong and they have not been able to build up enough volume to make it worthwhile to reverse the market.

 
The True Trend: The stop hunt is followed by a reversal and a slower trend that continues against the ‘faked’ trend toward the opposite high/low for the day. This trend tends to move in three waves, the pause between each wave representing a new opportunity to fake out traders by reversing direction and then moving against them again. These pauses are often characterized by sideways movement rather than a significant retracement though both are possible.
 
 
The Opposite LOD / HOD and Reversal: Ultimately the opposite LOD/HOD will be reached and there will be another reversal. This often occurs in the NY session, called the NYC Reversal Trade. This trade is likely to return a smaller profit than the initial stop hunt reversal trade though it is still worth taking particularly if you are not able to enter a trade following the London open.
 
 
Return to Accumulation: Once the reversal has occurred, price tends back toward the center, often not far from the starting point and recommences a new period of accumulation to lead into the new Dharma period and tomorrow’s cycle.
 

Quoted from:
Anonymous - The Market Maker Method
 
See also:

Monday, September 26, 2022

The Bankster's Paradise Conspiracy Theory | Antony C. Sutton

There is an extensive literature in English, French, and German reflecting the argument that the Bolshevik Revolution was the result of a "Jewish conspiracy"; more specifically, a conspiracy by Jewish world bankers. Generally, world control is seen as the ultimate objective; the Bolshevik Revolution was but one phase of a wider program that supposedly reflects an age old religious struggle between Christianity and the "forces of darkness."
 

The argument and its variants can be found in the most surprising places and from quite surprising persons. In February 1920 Winston Churchill wrote an article — rarely cited today — for the London Illustrated Sunday Herald entitled "Zionism Versus Bolshevism." In this article Churchill concluded that it was "particularly important ... that the National Jews in every country who are loyal to the land of their adoption should come forward on every occasion ... and take a prominent part in every measure for combatting the Bolshevik conspiracy." Churchill draws a line between "national Jews" and what he calls "international Jews." He argues that the "international and for the most atheistical Jews" certainly had a "very great" role in the creation of Bolshevism and bringing about the Russian Revolution. He asserts (contrary to fact) that with the exception of Lenin, "the majority" of the leading figures in the revolution were Jewish, and adds (also contrary to fact) that in many cases Jewish interests and Jewish places of worship were excepted by the Bolsheviks from their policies of seizure. Churchill calls the international Jews a "sinister confederacy" emergent from the persecuted populations of countries where Jews have been persecuted on account of their race. Winston Churchill traces this movement back to Spartacus-Weishaupt, throws his literary net around Trotsky, Bela Kun, Rosa Luxemburg, and Emma Goldman, and charges: "This world-wide conspiracy for the overthrow of civilisation and for the reconstitution of society on the basis of arrested development, of envious malevolence, and impossible equality, has been steadily growing."
 

[...] The persistence with which the Jewish-conspiracy myth has been pushed suggests that it may well be a deliberate device to divert attention from the real issues and the real causes. The evidence provided in this book suggests that the New York bankers who were also Jewish had relatively minor roles in supporting the Bolsheviks, while the New York bankers who were also Gentiles (Morgan, Rockefeller, Thompson) had major roles.

What better way to divert attention from the real operators than by the medieval bogeyman of anti-Semitism?