Sunday, September 25, 2022

Lenin. Money. Revolution. | Serhii Hrabovsky

The themes linked to Lenin, money, and revolution present an inexhaustible source of inquiry for historians, psychologists, and satirists. Just imagine: we have a man who, after the complete victory of communism, urged that toilet bowls in public restrooms be made of solid gold; a man who never had to earn a living through hard work; a man who was comfortably off even in prison and exile, and barely knew what money was, yet at the same time made a considerable contribution to the theory of commodity-money relations.

How exactly did he manage to do that? Not through brochures and articles, of course, but through his revolutionary activities. It was Lenin who, between 1919 and 1921, introduced non-monetary “natural” barter between towns and the countryside. This led to the total collapse of the economy, a complete standstill in agriculture, mass famines, and, consequently, mass uprisings against the regime of the Russian Communist Party. Only then, just before his death, did Lenin perceive the true meaning of money and introduce the NEP (New Economic Policy), a kind of “manageable capitalism” under the supervision of the Communist Party.
 
 
However, our purpose here is not to explore these fascinating subjects, but to investigate where Vladimir Lenin got the enormous sums necessary to fund party activities before the revolution. Over recent decades, some very interesting materials have been published, but much remains obscure. For example, at the beginning of the 20th century, the underground newspaper 'Iskra' was funded by a mysterious benefactor (individual or collective), disguised in party documents as the “Californian gold mines.” Some researchers believe this was an instance of radical Russian revolutionaries being sponsored by American Jewish bankers, mostly Russian expatriates and their descendants, who hated Tsarism for its official anti-Semitic policies.

During the revolution of 1905-07, the Bolsheviks were funded by American oil corporations aiming to push their rivals out of the world markets (specifically, Nobel’s oil cartel in Baku). At that time, American banker Jacob Schiff also provided money to the Bolsheviks, as he himself confessed. Other donors included Yermasov, a manufacturer from Syzran, and Morozov, a merchant and industrialist near Moscow. Later, the Bolshevik party gained another financial supporter in Schmidt, the owner of a furniture factory in Moscow. It is curious that both Savva Morozov and Nikolai Schmidt eventually committed suicide, allowing the Bolsheviks to inherit a considerable portion of their fortunes. Of course, large sums also came from the so-called “ex’es” (a truncated form of “expropriation”), or, in simpler terms, bank robberies, post office heists, and railway ticket-office hold-ups. These actions were masterminded by two characters with criminal monickers: Kamo and Koba, i.e., Ter-Petrosian and Dzhugashvili.

Nevertheless, hundreds of thousands, and even millions, of rubles invested in revolutionary activities could at best only shake the Russian Empire. Despite its shortcomings, the empire’s institutions were relatively solid—at least in peacetime. With the outbreak of World War I, however, new financial and political opportunities opened up for the Bolsheviks, and they didn’t fail to take advantage of them. On January 15, 1915, the German ambassador in Istanbul sent a report to Berlin regarding his meeting with Russian subject Aleksander Gelfand (aka Parvus), an active participant in the 1905-07 revolution and owner of a large trade company. Parvus revealed his plan for the Russian revolution and was immediately invited to Berlin, where he met with influential members of the German cabinet and advisors to Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg. Parvus suggested that the Germans provide him with a large sum of money to help promote, first, the national movements in Finland and Ukraine, and second, to support the Bolsheviks, who advocated for the defeat of the Russian Empire in the unjust war in order to overthrow the “regime of landlords and capitalists.” The Germans accepted his proposal and, by Kaiser Wilhelm’s personal order, gave him two million German marks as the first contribution to “the cause of the Russian revolution.” Later, other installments followed, some of them for even larger sums. According to a receipt from Parvus, on January 29, 1915, he received 15 million Russian rubles for the development of the revolutionary movement in Russia. The money was allotted with typical German efficiency.

In Finland and Ukraine, Parvus’ (and the German general staff’s) agents turned out to be of secondary importance. Their influence on the independence movements in these countries was insignificant compared to the broader processes of nation-building in the Russian Empire. However, in regard to Lenin, Parvus hit the bull’s-eye. Parvus claimed that he told Lenin that, at that moment, revolution was only possible in Russia and only as a result of Germany winning the war. In response, Lenin sent his proxy Fuerstenberg (aka Ganetsky) for close cooperation with Parvus, which lasted until 1918. Another installment from Germany, although not as large, came to the Bolsheviks via Swiss parliamentarian Karl Moor—amounting to only $35,000. More investments came from the Nia Bank in Stockholm, which, on the order of the German Imperial Bank, opened personal accounts for Lenin, Trotsky, Zinoviev, and other Bolshevik leaders. Order No. 7433 of March 2, 1917, allocated funds for the “services” of Lenin, Zinoviev, Kollontai, and others in spreading public peace propaganda in Russia after the Tsarist regime had just been overthrown.

The enormous sums were wisely administered. The Bolsheviks published their own newspapers, which were distributed free of charge in every town and village. A network of professional propagandists covered the entire territory of Russia, and “Red Guard” units were formed openly. Of course, this was not done with German money alone. Although the “poor” political émigré Trotsky had $10,000 confiscated by Canadian customs in Halifax in 1917 while en route from America to Russia, it is clear that he still managed to smuggle vast sums from banker Jacob Schiff to his supporters.

Even greater funds were raised during the “expropriation of the expropriators” (in simpler terms, robbing the wealthy), initiated in the spring of 1917. Has it ever occurred to anyone to question the Bolsheviks' occupation of the palace of ballerina Kshesinskaya or the Smolny Institute?

The Russian democratic revolution broke out unexpectedly in early spring 1917 for all its political subjects, both inside and outside the empire. It was a spontaneous, grass-roots movement both in Petrograd and on the empire's outskirts. Lenin, who was in exile in Switzerland, had publicly doubted only a month earlier whether the politicians of his generation (those in their 40s and 50s) would live to see a revolution in Russia. However, it was the radical Russian politicians who were the quickest to change their ways and seize the opportunity, aided by German assistance.

All in all, the Russian revolution was not accidental. It is even strange that it did not break out a year earlier. The social, political, and national problems in the Romanov empire had reached their breaking point. From a formal economic perspective, industry was developing dynamically, and the stockpile of weapons and ammunition had increased considerably. Yet, the utter inefficiency of central power and the corruption of the elite—inevitable in any autocracy—took their toll. The deliberate corruption of the army, the undermining of the rear, the sabotage of any attempts to constructively address urgent problems, and the incurable chauvinistic centralism typical of virtually all Great Russian political forces exacerbated the crisis. During the 1917 campaign, Entente troops were supposed to launch a simultaneous general offensive on all European fronts, but the Russian army was unprepared. Consequently, in April, the Anglo-French forces at Rheims failed, with casualties exceeding 100,000 dead and wounded. In July, Russian troops attempted an offensive towards Lviv, but eventually had to retreat from Galicia and Bukovina, and nearly gave up Riga in the north without resistance. Finally, the Battle of Caporetto in October resulted in the disastrous defeat of the Italian army, with 130,000 Italians dead and another 300,000 taken prisoner. Only the English and French divisions, urgently shipped from France, stabilized the front and prevented Italy from withdrawing from the war. After the November uprising in Petrograd, when the Bolsheviks and Left Social Revolutionaries came to power, an armistice was declared on the Eastern front—first de facto and then de jure, with Russia, Ukraine, and Romania.

These changes on the Eastern front were largely made possible by funds allotted by Germany to demoralize the Russian army from the rear. The military operations on the Eastern front, prepared and executed with large-scale success, were considerably facilitated by undermining activities within Russia, conducted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. "Our chief goal in this activity was to further strengthen the nationalist and separatist sentiments, and support the revolutionary elements. We are continuing this activity even at present and completing an agreement with the political division of the General Staff in Berlin" (Captain von Huelsen).

"Our joint efforts have yielded considerable results. Without our constant support, the Bolshevist movement could never have reached the scale and influence it has now. Everything testifies to the further growth of this movement." These were the words of German Secretary of State Richard von Kuehlmann, written on September 29, 1917. A month and a half before the Bolshevik revolt in Petrograd, von Kuehlmann knew what he was talking about. He was an active participant in all those events; soon after, he would conduct peace negotiations with Bolshevik Russia and the Ukrainian People's Republic in Brest in early 1918. He controlled huge financial currents, amounting to tens of thousands of German marks, and had contacts with key figures in this historic drama. “I have the honor of asking Your Excellence to allot a sum of 15 million marks at the disposal of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for political propaganda in Russia, referring to paragraph 6, section II of the extraordinary budget. Depending on the development of events, I would like to stipulate in advance the possibility of addressing Your Excellence again for additional funds,” von Kuehlmann wrote on November 9, 1917.

No sooner had news of the Petrograd revolt (soon to be labeled the Great October Revolution) arrived than Kaiser Germany allocated new funds for propaganda in Russia. This money went primarily to support the Bolsheviks, who first demoralized the army and then withdrew the Russian Republic from the war, freeing millions of German soldiers for operations in the West.

Despite all this, the Bolsheviks managed to maintain the image of unselfish revolutionaries and romantic Marxists until today. Even now, not only “official” adepts of the Marxist-Leninist creed but also some non-party left intellectuals remain convinced that Lenin and his followers were sincere internationalists and noble champions of the popular cause.

In 1958, Oxford University published secret documents from the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs (including von Kuehlmann’s telegrams) which proved the massive financial and organizational assistance provided by the German authorities to the Bolsheviks. Germany’s goals were clear: the radical revolutionaries were to undermine the military potential of one of the principal rivals of the Central Powers, i.e., the Russian Empire. Thousands of books have been published providing further convincing evidence. Yet, even today, many communist historians and some liberal researchers deny these self-evident historical facts. As German Secretary of State von Kuehlmann noted on December 3, 1917, “Only when the Bolsheviks began to receive constant investments from us via various channels and under various labels were they able to firmly establish their major printed organ, 'Pravda', develop active propaganda, and significantly enlarge their party base, which was rather narrow at the beginning.” Party membership grew a hundredfold within just a year after the overthrow of Tsarism.

Colonel Walter Nicolai, head of German military intelligence during World War I, described Lenin in his memoirs as follows: “Like anyone else at the time, I knew nothing about Bolshevism; as for Lenin, I only knew that he was living in Switzerland as a political émigré. Under the cryptonym ‘Ulianov,’ he provided my service with valuable information on the situation in Tsarist Russia against which he was fighting.”

In other words, without constant German assistance, the Bolsheviks would hardly have become one of the leading Russian parties in 1917. This would have meant a completely different development of events, probably much more anarchical, which would hardly have led to the establishment of a dictatorship, let alone a totalitarian regime. The most likely scenario would have been a different version of the disintegration of the Russian Empire, as World War I was primarily about the destruction of empires. The independence of Finland and Poland was effectively a fait accompli around 1916.

The Russian Empire, or even the Russian Republic, would likely have followed the same process of collapse triggered by World War I. Consider that Britain was forced to grant independence to Ireland, India was pushing for independence right after the war, and many other colonial territories followed suit. The revolution itself was, to some extent, marked by national-liberation struggles, as it was the Life Guards Volhynia Regiment that first rebelled against autocracy in early 1917. At that time, the Bolsheviks were a tiny party, barely known to anyone (with only about four thousand members, mostly in exile and emigration). They had no significant role in overthrowing Tsarism.

Assistance continued after Lenin’s government came to power. "You are free to operate large sums, as we are extremely interested in the stability of the Bolsheviks. You have Riesler’s funds at your disposal. If necessary, wire us how much more you need." (Berlin, May 18, 1918). Von Kuehlmann addressed the German embassy in Moscow, confirming the continuing German support for the Bolsheviks. The Bolsheviks held fast, and by the fall of 1918, they were channeling huge sums from the Russian imperial treasury into revolutionary propaganda in Germany, hoping to incite world revolution.

In Germany, a revolution did break out in early November 1918. Money, weapons, and qualified professional revolutionaries shipped from Moscow played their role. However, local communists failed to lead this revolution. Subjective and (more importantly) objective factors worked against them. A totalitarian regime was only established in Germany 15 years later, but that is a different story. Meanwhile, in 1921, the democratic Weimar Republic's renowned social democrat Eduard Bernstein published an article in his party's central organ 'Vorwärts' titled “A Shady Story,” in which he revealed that, as early as December 1917, he had received confirmation from “a certain competent person” that Germany had given money to Lenin. According to Bernstein, the Bolsheviks alone were paid more than 50 million German marks in gold. This sum was later officially mentioned in a session of the Reichstag's foreign policy committee. When the communist press accused Bernstein of libel, he invited them to sue him, which led to an immediate cessation of the campaign. Since Germany was in desperate need of friendly relations with Soviet Russia, the discussion of this topic in the press was abruptly shut down.

Aleksander Kerensky, one of the Bolsheviks’ main political opponents, concluded from his own investigation that the total sums received by the Bolsheviks before and after coming to power amounted to 80 million German marks in gold. In fact, Lenin never even tried to conceal this from his party colleagues. At a meeting of the All-Russian Central Executive Committee (a Bolshevik quasi-parliament) in November 1918, Lenin stated: “I am often accused of having carried out our revolution with German money; I do not deny it, but with Russian money, I am going to carry out the same revolution in Germany.” And he tried to do so, throwing away tens of millions of rubles. However, he failed: the German social democrats, unlike their Russian counterparts, quickly recognized the situation and arranged for the timely assassination of Karl Liebknecht and Rosa Luxemburg. This was followed by the disarmament of the “Red Guards” and the physical elimination of their leaders.

They had no other option. Perhaps, if Kerensky had found the courage to order the shooting of Smolny along with all its "red" inhabitants, even the Kaiser’s millions wouldn’t have helped them. We might round off here, were it not for a report from 'The New York Times' in April 1921, stating that in 1920 alone, 75 million Swiss francs were sent to Lenin’s account in a Swiss bank. According to the newspaper, Trotsky had $11 million and 90 million francs in his accounts; Zinoviev had 80 million francs; the “knight of the revolution,” Dzerzhinsky, had 80 million; and Ganetsky-Fuerstenberg had 60 million francs and 10 million dollars. Lenin, in his secret note to Cheka leaders Unschlicht and Bokiy on April 24, 1921, demanded they find the source of this information leak. However, it was never discovered.

Was this money also intended for the world revolution? Or was it some form of kickback from politicians and financiers in countries where Lenin and Trotsky’s “red horses” were not ordered to go? We can only speculate. Even now, a significant portion of Lenin’s papers remains top secret.

Quoted from: 
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Swing Trading - Rules and Philosophy | Linda Bradford Raschke

My style is based on the 'Taylor Trading Technique', a short-term method for trading daily price movements that relies entirely on odds and percentages. It is a method as opposed to a system. Very few people can blindly follow a system, though many find it easier to be discretionary in a systematic way. 
 
 
Because of the short-term nature of this technique, swing traders must adhere to some very basic rules, including: 
  • If the trade moves in your favor, carry it overnight--the odds favor follow-through. Expect to exit the next day around the objective point. An overnight gap presents an excellent opportunity to take profits. Concentrating on only one entry or one exit per day relieves the pressure. 
  • If your entry is correct, the market should move favorably almost immediately. It may come back to test and/or exceed your entry point a little, but that's OK. 
  • Do not carry a losing position overnight. Exit and play for better position the next day. 
  • A strong close indicates a strong opening the following day. 
  • If the market doesn't perform as expected, exit on the first reaction. 
  • If the market offers you a windfall of big profits, take them to the bank on the close. 
  • If you are long and the market closes flat, indicating a lower opening the following day, scratch or exit the trade. Play for better position the next day. 
  • It is always OK to scratch a trade! 
  • Use tight stops when swing trading (wider stops when trading trend). 
  • The goal always is to minimize risk and create "Freebies." 
  • When in doubt--get out! You have lost your road map and your game plan! 
  • Place your orders at the market. 
  • When the trade isn't working, exit on the first reaction. ANTICIPATE! 
 
Traders Laboratory (2007) - Taylor Trading Technique

How does one anticipate entry? The following may be indicators of a buy day or a sell day:

The Count
Start searching for a buying day 2 days after a swing high or, conversely, a shorting day 2 days after a swing low. Ideally, the market will move in complete 5-day cycles. (In a strong trend, the market will move 4 days in the primary direction and only 1 in reaction. Thus, one must seek entry 1 day earlier.)
 
"Check Mark" on the Test
The potential entry is sought opposite, or contrary to, the previous day's close. If looking to buy (sell), one first wants the market to "test" the previous day's low (high), preferably early in the day, and then form a trading pattern that looks like a "check mark" (see examples). This pattern sets up and establishes a "double stop point" or strong support. If entering a market with only a "single stop point" or support formed by today's low only, exit on the same day--the trade is clearly against the trend.

Close vs. Open
The close should indicate the following day's opening. When a market opens opposite what is expected or indicated by the trend, one may first look to "fade" it--but must take profits quickly. Then look to reverse!

Support (Resistance)
Is today's support (resistance) higher or lower than yesterday's?

Swing Measurements
Where is the market relative to the last swing high or low? Look for swings (up or down) of equal length, and for retracements of equal percentage.

No matter in what time frame, always look for supply at tops and support at bottoms. Penetrations should be accompanied by volume and activity. Expect trends, either up or down, to last for either 2 or 4 weeks. The following conditions are fairly reliable indicators for the start of one of these trends (I personally skip the first buy or sell swing when one occurs because the move ensuing could be quite strong): 
  • Narrowest range in the last 7 days 
  • 3 consecutive days with small range
  • The point of a wedge
  • A breakaway gap 
  • A rising ADX (14-period) above 32
Practice
Because a certain amount of confidence in any technique is required to trade it consistently, paper trading can cultivate the faith necessary to recognize and trade pattern repetition. Although the temptation to try too many different styles and patterns always exists, one must strive ultimately to trade in just one consistent manner or at least to integrate techniques into your own unique philosophy.
 
System Characteristics
Certain points about trading short-term swings deserve note. Understanding the nature of short-term systems can help you recognize the psychological aspect of trading. When consistently following a short-term system, you should expect a very high win/loss ratio. Though the objectives with this style of swing trading appear conservative, you will almost always incur "positive slippage". In all systems, winners are skewed. Even though making steady profits, 3-4 really big trades may actually make the month. It is vitally important to always "lock in" your trades. Don't give back profits when short-term trading. You may be astonished at just how big some winners may be from catching the swings "just right!"
 
[...] Finally, I want to leave you with what I believe are two Golden Rules, applicable to all traders but, of essential importance to short-term swing traders: 
  • NEVER, ever, average a loss! Sell out if you think you are wrong. Buy back when you believe you are right.
  • NEVER, NEVER, NEVER listen to anyone else's opinion! Only YOU know when your trade isn't working.
 
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Thursday, September 22, 2022

The Sun and the Moon | Jack Gillen

The Sun is an energy planet. It gives and takes energy. A solar cycle is 365.25 days. It affects the stock market every 30 days, as the Sun transits through the 12 signs of the zodiac. The Sun also has an 11-year solar cycle in which Sun-spot activity peaks, followed by five and a half years of solar flares, a period of more or less calm with respect to the Sun’s surface. And during this period the Sunspot areas emit a wide range of intense radio and electromagnetic radiation of various types, affecting people and conditions of the planet Earth. This has been researched not only by astrologers but by astronomers. It has a definite effect on the stock market, commodities, and other areas related to the stock market.

As in all living matters it seems to affect mundane things like corporations and the stock market in the same way. This is to say that with regard to the birth month and the birth date, six months prior to the birth date the solar cycle is high, giving energy and pushing the related company forward [Example 1]. The Sun also is a planet associated with the ego, appearance and personality. Six months prior to the birth date, the company is brought out before the public. The birth date to six months after, the energy flow is low it becomes weaker and this affects the stock market in the same way. 

As an example, the stock market was born May 17, 1792. So the months of May through November relate to low activity, affecting the market's price and structure. As we go from December through May, we go through the high cycle, the up period of the Sun. But there are many cycles of the Sun that affect different areas of the stock market as the Sun affects each house with relation to the buying public. In each six-month period of the year we will also find a close relationship between price. movement and volume from Aquarius to Leo, or from February to the last two weeks of July. Looking at example 1, we find that the birth month and the Sun cycle six months prior to the birth month is at a high level; six months after the birth date, it is at a low level.

In Example 2 we take the Midheaven aspect to the Ascendant. We can see in Example 2 that the chart of the stock exchange starts its up level in the sign of Aquarius and its down level begins in the sign of Leo. So these are the two breaking points within a year: under Aquarius and under Leo as the Sun transits these signs. The low part of the chart, which is the Nadir, is the sign of Libra. This will generally be the low point of the year, as October would always represent low price. low volume, in which the opposite point to the Midheaven is Aries. This would be affected by the planet represented at the Midheaven. However, in April, under no afflictions, this would be a great month where records would be set in the areas of volume and prices.

As we start with Aquarius, this would run from the last two weeks of January through the first two weeks of July. However, as the cycle proceeds through Pisces, which is a weak sign, it would represent a weak month for volume. From the latter part of March through April and May, and even into June, these could be above average months for prices and volume. Now, as the Leo portion is activated from July through October, these are very weak months. You cannot expect too much in the way of prices or volume. If there is any weakness in the market it will more or less have a breakdown during these months. Not only are we in the six-month period after the birth date but we also have the effect in the Leo portion of the house when the Sun is moving downward towards the Nadir, which is the cusp of the fourth house. The Midheaven is always the cusp of the tenth house. 

So the low points in this pattern would mainly be in February through Aquarius and in August when it drops down, with a peak at the Midheaven which would be in April under the sign of Aries.

The six-month cycle tends to extend from the Aquarius portion to the Leo portion and, again, from the Leo point to the February point prices tend to follow the volume curves from these aspects, with the weaknesses in the February-March, July-August and October-November periods. Therefore, in judging the stock market as to whether it will turn up or down, it is best to look at the Sun and the aspects pertaining to the Sun. If the Sun is under heavy affliction, these periods represent a bearish market. In good aspect, it will be bullish. In the good periods moving upward toward the Midheaven, it will be higher than normal. Moving toward the lower section, it will be lower than normal. This is why there will be so many depressions, recessions, panic and fear in the stock exchange in the latter part of the year as October approaches.

 
The Sun and the Moon - The Key to Speculation. 

The Sun's aspect and influence on the market will also affect a lot of stocks because individual stocks are affected by the movement of the Dow-Jones Industrial. You have to relate a 50 percent mark-up on a bullish market and take away 50 percent of an individual stock if the market is bearish. You can only give a stock 25 percent on its own merit. This means if the market is bad and the stock shows an indication of moving up, the price ratio as far as at what price to sell should be at a 25 percent profit. There are other indications, though, at which you could go for a 50 percent profit if the earnings are extremely high. A lot of gold and silver stocks will generally do the opposite in a bad market, and go all the way up. But if the market is bad and the Sun cycle is moving into that low period, you want to go short, or short at 50 percent from its point at that degree at that time, when the market shows indications of falling backwards. The Sun is a minor influence in relation to the overall picture of the market; however, it affects the market every year and there will be a pattern to each period of the year as far as the Sun’s transit through that sign. This will also relate to individual stocks, which will show the same pattern. So do your homework. Any time you select a stock, find the month in which to buy it and the month in which to sell the month in which it is usually at its highest point. You can relate this to the Moon for its exact day for buying or selling.

The market is always influenced by the Sun pattern and it will happen year after year. From January to the last two weeks in July, market prices will trend upwards, and in the latter part of the year after the influence of Leo, the market will be down in price. This is the average trend that will always occur and it affects volume as well as prices. However, it is important to realize the influence of the Sun in the chart of the New York Stock Exchange, and the Sun’s complete cycle.

Also, any corporation will be affected by certain cycles of the Sun through these signs. It is important to backtrack about 12 years during the pattern of the Sun’s cycle in order to see the pattern on which the company is being activated as far as the solar cycle.

The period of the Sun in Aries is usually from March 20 through April 19, Taurus, April 20 through May 20; Gemini, May 21 through June 20; Cancer, June 21 through July 22; Leo, July 23 through August 22; Virgo. August 23 through September 22; Libra, September 23 through October 22: Scorpio, October 23 through November 21; Sagittarius, November 22 through December 21; Capricorn, December 22 through January 19; Aquarius, January 20 through February 15; and Pisces, February 19 through March 20. These are the twelve signs with the transit of the Sun.

Again, let me stress the importance of the aspect of the Sun during these periods. If it involves a combination that relates to panic, crashes, recession or depression, then these months will be more intensified as far as the effect. If the transit is in a trine or a good aspect then the movement will be fess severe than under normal conditions.

There is one more important point to the solar cycle which is really the result of another cycle. This is the 19-year cycle of the motion of the plane of the Moon's orbit. It is the solar eclipse cycle. Although there is partial or total eclipse each year. usually there will be an eclipse near the same degree of the zodiac once every 19 years. This is a major eclipse. This major eclipse does have an effect on changes within the stock market and these changes have been reflected year after year during these cycles. Since this eclipse involves the Moon, it represents changes in relation from a Moon-Sun characteristic.

In this cycle the Sun makes a complete circuit of the sky and reaches the same Node at the same place on the ecliptic as shown in Diagram 3. This length of time is 6585.32] solar days, which is 48 years, 11.33 days. The shortest time required for the Sun to travel from and return to the same node is 346.6 solar days, an interval known as an eclipse year. It is listed on the calendar year because of the effect of the session which is known as a slow regression of the nodes around the ecliptic. Nineteen of the eclipse years contain 6585.4 days, which is precisely 223 synodic months, This is when the Nodes themselves become important in the predictions on the stock market.

The Moon affects changes and emotions. The daily influence on the stock market is related to changes of the Moon as it transits through each sign. Its effect on individual corporations would be the same. The Moon works in association with the planet Saturn. The Moon's phase cycle is from 28 to 29.5 days. Saturn’s cycle is 28 to 29,5 years, So, where it takes Saturn 2.5 years to transit one sign, it takes the Moon 2.5 days. If the Moon shows weakness in one sign as to where a stock would drop rapidly during that time, then when Saturn is also in the sign this would cause a 2.5 year downtrend for the stock. For example. if the Moon goes into Taurus and the stock goes up or down, it will do the same when Saturn is in that sign. So ever though a lot of aspects related to the Moon are minor, such as a stock might drop one-eighth to one-half, during its transit through any one sign, it does relate 10 a longer trend with the effects of Saturn.

In judging the daily influence of the Moon's dominance over a certain stock, bear in mind the influence of a transit of the Sun. If the Sun’s movement shows a high point for the Dow-Jones averages, then the Moon as a negative factor on the Dow-Jones will not have that much influence. If they are both at a high point, then the stock would rise extremely high on that day. So use the Moon as a daily indicator together with the 30-day movement of the Sun in each sign.

There are three cycles related to the Moon. One is called a Moon return. This cycle occurs every four years, when the Moon returns to the same position. (Check the four-year cycles day by day of a stock.) Another cycle is 27.5 days by the sign itself and 28 or 29.5 days by phase. These are the cycles represented by the Moon. The pattern of the four-year cycle is more dominant in a long-term trend relating to the stock market. The Moon also has a period in which it is stagnant, or void of course. 1t is a period when the Moon is changing from one sign to another without being aspected. From research this is not a period to purchase stock as it represents changes indicating a complete reverse. It is an unstable period of the Moon.

You can also determine monthly trends by watching the Moon under each cycle. In a period of 28-29.5 days, if the Moon falls square, conjunction, or opposite to planets passing over the Midheaven, this will give you an indication of good or bad returns following the week in relation to the stock market itself. It generally relates to people's emotions. The Moon's Nodes are also prominent indicators as far as the movement around the zodiac. If an individual stock has the Moon's North Node going toward the Midheaven, this indicates it will have movement. If it falls below the Ascendant, this generally causes it to move downwards. However, again, you have to use the other planetary movements to make a complete judgment. You cannot do it by the Nodes themselves, but the Nodes would reinforce any conditions shown as a downtrend in a certain stock.

The Moon and Sun in relation to each other show a type of speed that a certain cycle is indicated to move under because the effects of the Sun, the Moon and Earth are the prominent factors relating to the movement during the year, The other planets more or less determine tong-tern trends.

The speed of the Moon is affected by the tidal deformation of the Earth which produces a gradual increase on the Moon’s orbital speed which in turn makes the Moon slowly recede, causing a fast or a slow Moon which does reflect the aspects as far as movement of a cycle. IF it’s fast, there's a lot of action in the market, or if it's slow, then a change is predicted. In Diagram 4 we have a plain view of the Moon's orbit, We show that the Earth-Moon gravitational inter-reaction generates two bulges, more or less like a plastic bubble. The Earth has an axial rotation which is faster than the orbital rotation of the Moon, and the effect of this frictional drag is that the bulges arc carried around the Earth's rotation until a balance is established between the drag and the tide generating force.

The pattern of the four year cycle is more dominant in a long-term trend relating to the stock market. The Moon also has a period which is stagnant. This is called the Moon void of course. It is a period when the Moon is changing from one side to another without being aspected. This is not a period to purchase stock as it represents changes that could go completely reverse. It is an unstable period of the Moon itself.


In Diagram 4 we have equilibrium point 1. This is nearer to the Moon than point 2, and is therefore experiencing a stronger gravitational attraction than 2. Both 1 and 2 are displaced from the central line so that the forces along with 1 and 3 and 2 and 3 converge toward the center of the Moon. These two forces may be resolved at the Moon into components that act, in one case, along the central line toward the Earth; and in the other case at right angle into the direction of the Moon's orbit. The components acting toward the century add together, whereas the components in direction of the orbit are in opposition. Because the force along 1 and 3 is larger than along 2 and 3, this means a net unbalance force acting on the Moon in the orbital direction, which has the effect of accelerating its motion, moving it into an orbit of a larger radius; modern estimates indicate a recessional speed of about 3.2 cm. per year.

For accurate calculation, there are many Moon sign books and Moon calendars, that will give you the transit of the Moon each day, which you can relate to stock predictions. In the speed of a stock, we have the one-half cycle, the one-fourth, and the three-fourths, all of which indicate changes in relation to the up and down cycle price of each stock.

 
See also:

Thursday, August 25, 2022

The Return of the Heartland | Pepe Escobar

Pepe Escobar (Aug 24, 2022) - Putin himself first spelled it out at the Munich Security Conference in 2007. Xi Jinping started to make it happen when he launched the New Silk Roads in 2013. The Empire struck back with Maidan in 2014. Russia counter-attacked coming to the aid of Syria in 2015. The Empire doubled down on Ukraine, with NATO weaponizing it non-stop for eight years. At the end of 2021, Moscow invited Washington for a serious dialogue on “indivisibility of security” in Europe. That was dismissed with a non-response response. Moscow took no time to confirm a trifecta was in the works: an imminent Kiev blitzkrieg against Donbass; Ukraine flirting with acquiring nuclear weapons; and the work of US bioweapon labs.

The heart of Europe is Germany, the heart of Asia is China, and the heart of Eurasia is Russia. In his famous article The Continental Bloc:
Berlin-Moscow-Tokyo
, published in 1941, German geographer Karl Haushofer wrote: "Eurasia cannot be suffocated while its two largest
people, the Germans and the Russians, strive in every way to avoid internecine conflict: it is an axiom of European politics.
"

[...] What Moscow is doing is talking to virtually the whole Global South, bilaterally or to groups of actors, explaining how the world-system is changing right before our eyes, with the key actors of the future configured as BRI, SCO, EAEU, BRICS+, the Greater Eurasia Partnership. And what we see is vast swathes of the Global South – or 85% of the world’s population – slowly but surely becoming ready to engage in expelling the FIRE Mafia (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate as per Michael Hudson) from their national horizons, and ultimately taking them down: a long, tortuous battle that will imply multiple setbacks.
 
"The New World Order is a battle for the meaning of the end of history. The great philosophical battle. It is time to close the page of exclusively
materialistic, energy and economic interpretations - this is not just vulgar, it is wrong. History is the history of ideas.
" Alexander Dugin, 2022

[...] The Global South though should never lose sight of the “Empire business”. The Empire of Lies excels in producing chaos and plunder, always supported by extortion, bribery of comprador elites, assassinations [...] Never underestimate a bitter, wounded, deeply humiliated Declining Empire. So fasten your seat belts: that will be the tense dynamic all the way to the 2030s. But before that, all along the watchtower, get ready for the arrival of General Winter, as his riders are fast approaching, the wind will begin to howl, and Europe will be freezing in the dead of a dark night as the FIRE Mafia puff their cigars.

Wednesday, August 24, 2022

The Magician's Sheep | George Gurdjieff

George Gurdjieff (1949) - There is an Eastern tale that speaks about a very rich magician who had a great many sheep. But at the same time this magician was very mean. He did not want to hire shepherds, nor did he want to erect a fence about the pasture where the sheep were grazing. The sheep consequently often wandered into the forest, fell into ravines and so on, and above all, they ran away, for they knew that the magician wanted their flesh and their skins, and this they did not like.
 
 
At last the magician found a remedy. He hypnotized his sheep and suggested to them, first of all, that they were immortal and that no harm was being done to them when they were skinned; that on the contrary, it would be very good for them and even pleasant; secondly he suggested that the magician was a good master who loved his flock so much that he was ready to do anything in the world for them; and in the third place, he suggested that if anything at all were going to happen to them, it was not going to happen just then, at any rate not that day, and therefore they had no need to think about it. Further, the magician suggested to his sheep that they were not sheep at all; to some of them he suggested that they were lions, to some that they were eagles, to some that they were men, to others that they were magicians. After this all his cares and worries about the sheep came to an end. They never ran away again, but quietly awaited the time when the magician would require their flesh and skins.
 
Quoted from: 

The Liberal Political Theology | Neema Parvini

Neema Parvini (2022) - From the realist perspective of [Carl] Schmitt, there is no structural difference between the liberal state, the communist state, and the fascist state — or indeed any other state. The only difference is the extent to which a regime may obscure the nature of its power or else genuinely buy into myths of neutrality. Viewed in this way, a state wedded to liberal democracy is as ‘totalitarian’ as any other since, by its very nature, it will be unable to tolerate any leaders who are not always already liberal democrats. 
 
"Liberalism is to freedom as anarchism is to anarchy." Ernst Jünger, 1977
 
Should such leaders rise, the stalwarts of liberal democracy will perceive them as ‘populists’, ‘fascists’, ‘threats to democracy’, and so on. The extent of free speech, free inquiry, free thought, and so on is a liberal delusion. In fact, the range of ‘allowable opinion’ is always exceedingly narrow and the liberal democratic state is marked by its intolerance and spectacular inability to imagine any worldview that is not its own. The dominance of liberal political theology is total. Schmitt would not have disagreed with Oswald Spengler who wrote in The Decline of the West:

"England, too, discovered the ideal of a Free Press, and discovered along with it that the press serves him who owns it. It does not spread ‘free’ opinion — it generates it. […] Without the reader’s observing it, the paper, and himself with it, changes masters. Here also money triumphs and forces the free spirits into its service. No tamer has his animals more under his power. Unleash the people as reader-mass and it will storm through the streets and hurl itself upon the target indicated, terrifying and breaking windows; a hint to the press-staff and it will become quiet and go home. The Press today is an army with carefully organized arms and branches, with journalists as officers, and readers as soldiers. But here, as in every army, the soldier obeys blindly, and war aims and operation-plans change without his knowledge. The reader neither knows, nor is allowed to know, the purposes for which he is used, nor even the role that he is to play. A more appalling caricature of freedom of thought cannot be imagined. Formerly a man did not dare to think freely. Now he dares, but cannot; his will to think is only a willingness to think to order, and this is what he feels as his liberty."

As Edward Bernays would go on to say these ‘are the invisible rulers who control the destinies of millions. […] In some department of our daily lives, in which we imagine ourselves as free agents, we are ruled by dictators exercising great power.’ The point is that viewed from the outside, liberal democracy looks just as ‘totalitarian’ as any other regime even if it relies more on subtle persuasion, nudge techniques, and other psychological tricks than coercion to obtain its results.

The Rulers and the Ruled | Gaetano Mosca

Gaetano Mosca (1896) - Among the constant facts and tendencies that are to be found in all political organisms, one is so obvious that it is apparent to the most casual eye. In all societies — from all societies that are very meagerly developed and have barely attained the dawnings of civilization, down to the most advanced and powerful societies — two classes of people appear — a class that rules and a class that is ruled.
 
[...] In reality the dominion of an organized minority, obeying a single impulse, over the unorganized majority is inevitable. The power of any minority is irresistible as against each single individual in the majority, who stands alone before the totality of the organized minority. A hundred men acting uniformly in concert, with a common understanding, will triumph over a thousand men who are not in accord and can therefore be dealt with one by one. Meanwhile it will be easier for the former to act in concert and have a mutual understanding simply because they are a hundred and not a thousand. It follows that the larger the political community, the smaller will the proportion of the governing minority to the governed majority be, and the more difficult will it be for the majority to organize for reaction against the minority.


"I can certainly call myself an anti-democrat, but I am not an anti-liberal;
indeed I am opposed to pure democracy precisely because I am a liberal.
I believe that the ruling class ought not to be monolithic and homogeneous
but ought to consist of elements which are diverse in regard to origin and
interests; when, instead, political power originates from a single source,
even if this be elections with universal suffrage, I regard it as dangerous
and liable to become oppressive. Democratic Jacobinism is an illiberal
doctrine precisely because it subordinates everything to a single force,
that of the so-called majority, on which it does not set any limits."

[...] What happens in other forms of government — namely, that an organized minority imposes its will on the disorganized majority — happens also and to perfection, whatever the appearances to the contrary, under the representative system. When we say that the voters ‘choose’ their representative, we are using a language that is very inexact. The truth is that the representative has himself elected by the voters, and, if that phrase should seem too inflexible and too harsh to fit some cases, we might qualify it by saying that his friends have him elected. In elections, as in all other manifestations of social life, those who have the will and, especially, the moral, intellectual and material means to force their will upon others take the lead over the others and command them.

[...] From our point of view there can be no antagonism between state and society. The state is to be looked upon merely as that part of society which performs the political function. Considered in this light, all questions touching interference or noninterference by the state come to assume a new aspect. Instead of asking what the limits of state activity ought to be, we try to find out what the best type of political organization is, which type, in other words, enables all the elements that have a political significance in a given society to be best utilized and specialized, best subjected to reciprocal control and to the principle of individual responsibility for the things that are done in the respective domains.

"Who says organization, says oligarchy. [...] Historical evolution mocks all the
prophylactic measures that have been adopted for the prevention of oligarchy."
Robert Michels, 1911

[...] Any political organization is both voluntary and coercive at one and the same time voluntary because it arises from the very nature of man, as was long ago noted by Aristotle, and coercive because it is a necessary fact, the human being finding himself unable to live otherwise. It is natural, therefore, and at the same time indispensable, that where there are men there should automatically be a society, and that when there is a society there should also be a state — that is to say, a minority that rules and a majority that is ruled by the ruling minority.

The Magic of Money | Hjalmar Schacht

Hjalmar Schacht (1967) - Man needs money and cannot exist without it. The diabolic magic of money is here clearly visible. It has helped mankind to make immense strides in economic development, and has at the same time enslaved him. Regression to a money-less condition, or the modern method of exchange by means of money any kind of money, but still money - these are the alternatives. Money plays the role of the sorcerer's apprentice - created to serve a master who cannot now rid himself of his indispensable sprite. It is the master now. 


Hjalmar Schacht (1877 – 1970), President of the Reichsbank.

[...] Modern paper money, the banknote, is backed by its creator, the State. It is true that John Law, the inventor of paper money, recommended a kind of cover based on landed property, but Law too saw that the principal security for paper money lay in confidence in the government, which has legal control over all kinds of things which would provide security. The failure which put an end to Law's measures was not so much caused by a paper money inflation, as by a collapse of speculative activity in the shares of the overseas enterprises he had founded. The value of his paper money was not based on these public companies, but only on their relationship with the state. Law rightly recognised that money, if it does not consist of tangible metal, is purely an internal affair of the national state. This remains true today.

For this reason there is no such thing as international currency. It is unlikely that it will ever come into being. International money would have to be granted the status of legal tender in all countries in which it circulates. In all these countries it would have to be possible to settle every state and private obligation in this currency. Any institution controlling this. currency irrespective of whether it is a bank or a government department would dominate the world an unthinkable situation. Currency is the most nationalistic factor in political life. Every central bank responsible for issuing it is dependent on the government of the country by whose laws it was instituted, and which makes its notes legal tender in the country's home territory.

The granting of credit is unthinkable without a central bank. No central bank can be allowed to act against the government of the country. The government is over the central bank, and influences its policies. It is thus also in a position to inflate the currency by taking up too much credit with the central bank. No international central bank could countenance such a situation. It cannot permit one of the governments with which it is associated to misuse its facilities unless every other government is in agreement. This however is a condition which cannot be reconciled with the fight of all against all in time of economic difficulty. No state will surrender so much of its sovereignty that its partners or competitors are given the power to prescribe its economic and financial policies. Standing over and above central bank and government, both of which are led and administered by changing personalities, there is a higher, impersonal, and substantially necessary law: the stability, the constancy of value, of money. This higher law has in the past granted the central banks an autonomous, independent position. Governments change, and can pursue good or bad currency and credit policies according to whether or not it is to the advantage of the party in power. 
 
Schacht in an Allied internment camp, 1945.
"Dr. Schacht, you should come to America. We’ve lots of money and that’s real banking".
Schacht replied, "You should come to Berlin. We don’t have money. That’s real banking".

[...] Even if common currency is regarded and desired as the crowning achievement of the European Common Market, it would be wrong to leave the relationship between the government and the central bank out of account. [...] The closer the economic ties between various countries, the easier will it become to reach agreement on currency policies. Whether these will ultimately lead to a unitary currency will always depend on the extent to which the participants are prepared to surrender their sovereignty. Here in fact is the Common Market's chief problem.