Value Line Geometric Composite Index | Breaking Above 1998 High

While everybody and his brother are expecting the Everything-Bubble to pop soon,
some are touting the stock markets would plunge into an epic abyss.
Martin Armstrong explains again why this time it really is different (HERE)

No doubt, greed is historically excessive in the US-stock market these days (HERE), and a correction is due. At the same time there is a quite different technical perspective to it: It took the Value Line Geometric Composite Index (though not inflation adjusted, but equally weighted, using a geometric average) three attempts and 19 years to finally break significantly above the 1998 high. However, also since 1998, countless Perma-Bears among the Elliott-Wavers are still constantly expecting THE epic stock market crash to be lurking around every corner. They expect the completely distorted major US-stock indices to dive to and below their 1987 crash-lows (the wave 4 of lesser degree-target in Elliott Wave-lingo), and this event to usher in the end of civilization and the ascension of a new dark age. Well, the Value Line Index indeed had crashed below its 1987 low in 2009 already, and keeps rising ever since. The highs of 1998, 2007, 2015 and 2017 are now providing very strong support.

Dow Jones Industrial Average to Gold Price Ratio (in USD) │ Jan 1915 - Oct 2017
Source: macrotrends

US Equity Market P/E Ratio vs Long‐Term Historical Average
Source: PCA

George Marechal's Stock Market Forecast 1933 to 1948 │ Law of the Market

In 1933 the incoming U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt reached out to Roger Ward Babson for a long range forecast for the stock markets. Babson, a very successful entrepreneur, economist, business theorist, investor, and philantroph with a huge fortune, was a household name since he had predicted, back on September 5th 1929, that "a crash is coming, and it may be terrific". Later that very same day the stock market on Wall Street declined by 3% and this became known as the "Babson Break". The big crash with most catastrophic losses followed on October 24 and 29, 1929 (Black Thursday and Black Tuesday). When the U.S. finally reached the height of the Great Depression in 1932 and the stock market was at an all-time low, 75% of its value was wiped out, and shares in any company were virtually worthless. Thousands of people were ruined, and soup kitchens sprang up on street corners as people lost their jobs, savings and homes. 

To comply with President Roosevelt’s demand, Babson in turn consulted the largely unknown Canadian mathematician George Marechal, who recently had managed to work out how the highs and lows of the Dow Jones Industrial Index repeated themselves in predetermined sequences. So finally it was Marechal who produced a Dow Jones Index Forecast Chart over the next 15 years for the Roosevelt administration, that proved to be spectacularly accurate. So confident was Marechal in his prediction at the time that he had his chart copyrighted. His friend Alan H. Andrews (the inventor of Andrews’ Pitchfork) described it as a "chart no government economist, no college professor has enough knowledge to even approach or courage to try to duplicate." 

Comparison of Marechal's 1933 forecast with actual data of the Dow Jones Index from 1934 through April 1951
[published by Garfield A. Drew and Edward R. Dewey in Cycles Magazine, October 1962].

Edward R. Dewey confirmed in 1962 that still little to nothing was known of Marechal's method, though a fund manager had offered him $20,000 for his secrets, or, alternatively, to operate a five million dollar fund on the basis of these secrets and to share profits. But Marechal did not accept either offer, and finally died at the age of 90 without ever revealing how he was able to calculate market movements with such uncanny accuracy. However, what is clear is that he was using a version of Babson's Normal Line. The annotations to his chart later added by his friend Alan Andrews show that Marechal plotted turns with what are now known as Median Lines. Dewey concluded:

"The important thing about this study [chart of Marechal] is not the exact precision by which it came true, or the amount of money you would or would not have made if you had followed it. The important thing is that it shows that the market has predictable patterns. In other words, that the seeming disorder of market fluctuations really is subject to law, and that this law is learnable."

In 1948 Garfield A. Drew, another friend of Marechal, reproduced the forecast in his book "New Methods For Profit in the Stock Market". Drew stated that one of the original copies of the forecast had been in his possession since 1935, and as each year was divided into six parts he added in his book the actual fluctuations of the Dow Jones Industrial Averages by plotting the high and low for each two-month period. Drew commented on the famous chart:

"Clearly, the pattern of the forecast and the actual pattern of the market miss many times in detail and exact timing. Nevertheless, the broad picture of the trends from 1934 through 1947, at least, is remarkably similar. The basic downtrend from 1936-37 to 1942 is plain, and likewise the uptrend from 1942 to 1946, although the latter shows up as a much more zigzag pattern in the forecast than was actually the case. Thus, the year 1944 by itself, for example, appears as a down period, whereas it was really an up year. When the year 1947 ended, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had spent 16 months within a 16% price range. As far as the situation at the time the comparison in [the figure] ends is concerned, it is evident that, if the broad accuracy of the preceding 14 years is to be maintained, 1948 must, on the whole, witness a rising price level. A definite down trend going substantially into new low territory by the year-end would produce a greater discrepancy between the forecast pattern and the actual course of prices than at any other time in the record. The fact remains to be seen at this writing, but, in line with his original forecast made years before, Marechal always insisted that 1946-47 was not a "bear market" but an interruption in a long upward trend comparable to the break and market hesitancy during 1926 in the long upswing from 1921 to 1929.”

"In this figure the Dow Jones Averages are plotted from 1897 through 1962. On this chart are a number
of "resistance" lines. The original worksheets for Marechal's forecast look just about like this chart,
except that there were a great many more lines and, thus, a great many more intersecting points.
Marechal's secrets consist fundamentally of how to draw the resistance lines and how to select the
significant intersections" [Edward R. Dewey in Cycles Magazine, October 1962].

EUR/USD vs Inner Planets' Ingress into Zodiac Signs + Annual Cycle

SoLunar Map | October - November 2017

Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are:
Oct 01 (Sun), Oct 05-06 (Thu-Fri) = Full Moon, Oct 09 (Mon), Oct 12 (Thu), Oct 16 (Mon), Oct 20 (Fri; New Moon = Oct 19), Oct 23 (Mon), Oct 27 (Fri), Oct 31 (Tue), Nov 04 (Sat) = Full Moon, Nov 07 (Tue), Nov 11 (Sat), Nov 15 (Wed), Nov 18-19 (Sat-Sun) = New Moon, Nov 22 (Wed), Nov 26 (Sun), Nov 29 (Wed), Dec 03 (Sun) = Full Moon.
Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

The above charts depict the SoLunar bias for short-term movements of stock indices two months ahead. The markets are certainly influenced also by other planetary forces - especially longer-term - but a 3-5 day short-term rhythm and pattern is governed by the SoLunar forces (= 4 highs and 4 lows per lunar month).

The SoLunar forces are a composite of Sun-Moon angles, orbital eccentricities, declinations and some long-term cycles. A Low in the SoLunar Map frequently is a High in the stock market and vice versa. Inversions occur, and if so, they should occur only once every 4 lunar months around a New Moon (max +/- 7 days).

The SoLunar Rhythm is frequently disturbed by (1.) the FED, and (2.) by sudden solar activity, altering the geomagnetic field, and hence the mass mood. This can result in the skip and/or inversion of pivots in the SoLunar Map. An increasing number of sunspots and flares have usually a negative influence on the stock market some 48 hours later, and vice versa (Ap values > 10 are usually short-term negative). A rising blue line in the SoLunar Map means the bias for the market is side-ways-to-up, and vice versa. Highs and lows in the SoLunar Map also may coincide with the start and termination of complex, side-ways correction patterns like zig-zags, triangles or flags.

SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | October 2017

Upcoming Turn-Days:
Oct 04 (Wed), Oct 14 (Sat), Oct 16 (Mon), Oct 17 (Tue), Oct 25 (Wed), Oct 31 (Tue), Nov 08 (Wed).

Cosmic Cluster Days │ October — November 2017

Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days are:
Oct 13 (Fri), Oct 18 (Wed), Oct 19 (Thu), Oct 21 (Sat), Oct 22 (Sun), Nov 02 (Thu), Nov 08 (Wed), Nov 09 (Thu), Nov 10 (Fri), Nov 23 (Thu), Dec 09 (Sat).
Previous CCDs are HERE

The assumption is that heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets are related to financial market movements. A signal is triggered when the composite line of all aspects breaks above or below the Cosmic Noise Channel. 

Review: SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days September 2017 | Preview: October 2017

SPX - NDX - RUT vs SoLunar Map | Review & Preview

Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are:
Sep 28 (Thu), Oct 01 (Sun), Oct 05-06 (Thu-Fri) = Full Moon, Oct 09 (Mon), Oct 12 (Thu), Oct 16 (Mon), Oct 20 (Fri) = New Moon, Oct 23 (Mon), Oct 27 (Fri), Oct 31 (Tue), Nov 04 (Sat) = Full Moon. The complete October-November Map is HERE

S&P 500 Index vs Mercury – Mars Speed Differential │ Sep 28 (Thu) @ Max

SPX │ Sideways to Up into late September early October?

SPX vs SoLunar Force and Bradley Index │ September and October

Russell 2000 Index vs SoLunar Map │ Rosh Hashanah and Equinox

The Russell 2000 vs the major 118.12 Calendar Day SoLunar Cycle.

Rosh Hashanah begins at sunset of Wednesday, Sep 20 (New Moon), and ends at nightfall on Friday, Sep 22. The fall (autumnal) equinox is on Friday, Sep 22 at 10:48 am EDT (see also HERE). Greed reached an extreme level on Sep 19 (Tue), and the S&P500, the Russell 2000, and the Nasdaq generated Narrow Range Inside Day Patterns (ID/NR4 and ID/NR7 - HERE + HERE).

Buy Rosh Hashanah, Sell Yom Kippur
[evening of Friday , Sep 29] ? │ Jeff Hirsch

DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Up 7 of Last 8 Years
Day before Rosh Hashanah │ Jeff Hirsch

SPX vs Declination of Mercury │ Sep 11 (Mon)

SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle │ September 2017

Upcoming Turn-Days:

Sep 08 (Fri), Sep 09 (Sat), Sep 10 (Sun), Sep 20 (Wed), Sep 27 (Wed), Oct 04 (Wed).

DJIA Daily Pattern during Years Ending in "7" │ 1887-2017

Source: The Leuthold Group

Russell 2000 Index vs SoLunar Map │ Review & Preview

2017 Aug 21 (Mon) = Total Solar Eclipse @ 20° LEO 21' (HERE)

Dax vs Lunar Inclination and SoLunar Map │ August 15 High

SPX vs Mercury Latitude Cycle @ MIN @ MAX @ 0 │ August 2017

On Aug 22 (Tue) Mercury's geocentric latitude will be lowest in the 88 Day Cycle at -7 degrees.

SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle │ August 2017

Upcoming Turn-Days:
Jul 31 (Mon), Aug 04 (Fri), Aug 07 (Mon), Aug 16 (Wed), Aug 24 (Thu), Aug 30 (Wed), Sep 08 (Fri).

S&P 500 Index vs Lunar Mystery Cycle │ The Infinite Divided By The Soul

The Lunar Mystery Cycle suggests that August 04 (Fri) ± 1 TD will be a low.

1. Divide the Number of the Infinite (= 1) by the Number of the Soul (= 7) = 0.1428571
2.  Float the decimals to the front by multiplying 0.1428571 by 100,000 = 14,285.71 
3. Assume this would be Degrees of Lunar Motion, and divide them by 360 Degrees = 39.68 Lunar Months of 29.53 Calendar Days (CD) = 39 Lunations + 20.15 CD ≈ 1,171.79 Calendar Days or divided by the length of the Mean Solar Year (365.24 Days) ≈ 3.21 Years.  

Any pivot-date in the S&P500 plus approximately 1,172 CD will become another pivot, oftentimes even of the same polarity. However, this cycle cannot forecast the magnitude and importance of the projected highs and lows.

An ancient approximation to π (pi) is 22 divided by 7 = 3.142857. This has been associated with Jewish mysticism. Certain Kabbalists know the 22 characters of the Hebrew alphabet represent a complete circumference that, when divided by 7 = the sacred number of cycles, produces the Kabbalistic π, also known as the perfect π. 

One divided by seven is 0.142857142857142857142857142857 ..., and if 142,857 is multiplied by 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, the answer is a cyclic permutation of itself, and will correspond to the repeating digits of 2/7, 3/7, 4/7, 5/7, or 6/7, respectively:

1 × 142,857 = 142,857
2 × 142,857 = 285,714
3 × 142,857 = 428,571
4 × 142,857 = 571,428
5 × 142,857 = 714,285
6 × 142,857 = 857,142
7 × 142,857 = 999,999 = closest to The Infinite   

Multiplying 142,857 by 2 one gets 285,714, which is the same digits, rotated 4 positions, by 3 one gets 428,571 (shifted 5 places), 142,857 times 7 is 999,999, the closest number to The Infinite. There is a lot more number-plays with 142,857 involved, e.g.

1 / 7 = 0 . 142857 142857 142857 14 ...
2 / 7 = 0 . 285714 285714 285714 28 ...
3 / 7 = 0 . 428571 428571 428571 42 ...
4 / 7 = 0 . 571428 571428 571428 57 ...
5 / 7 = 0 . 714285 714285 714285 71 ...
6 / 7 = 0 . 857142 857142 857142 85 ...
7 / 7 = 0 . 999999 999999 999999 99 ...
8 / 7 = 1 . 142857 142857 142857 14 ...
9 / 7 = 1 . 285714 285714 285714 28 ...

See also HERE

SPX vs True Lunar Node Speed │ August 2017

Upcoming Turn-Days: Aug 04 (Fri), Aug 12 (Sat), Aug 16 (Wed), Aug 19 (Sat), Aug 28 (Mon), Sep 02 (Sat).

Lunar Eclipses (e.g. Aug 07, 2017) occur at Full Moon and Solar Eclipses (e.g. Aug 21, 2017) at New Moon only when their alignments occur in three dimensions. Relative to Earth's orbit, the plane of lunar orbit is inclined. Mean Inclination of Lunar Orbit equals 5.1454 degrees. Eclipses only occur near the Nodes of Lunar Orbit intersection with the Solar Orbital Plane. Earth's Mean Orbital Plane is termed the Ecliptic (synonymous with eclipse). There are two nodal crossings of the ecliptic per nodal period, the ascending node and the descending node. Half the nodal period is the shortest possible interval between two eclipses. Solar and Lunar Eclipses are very distinct: The Moon's shadow during a total Solar Eclipse is only a narrow band on the earth. The Earth's conic shadow at the Moon's mean distance is over 9,000 km wide, nearly three lunar diameters. Only a small percentage of people experience each Solar Eclipse while half the world can view each Lunar Eclipse.
 
Before and after Lunar and Solar Eclipses the True Lunar Node starts wobbling (e.g. on Jul 30, 2017), quickly moving back and forth, retrograde, stationary, direct. Financial markets correlate with this 4 to 14 Day Cycle of the Retrograde-Stationary-Direct motion of the Lunar True Node. About every 86.655 days a so called Moon Wobble (lunar libration) occurs when the Sun is conjunct (e.g. on Aug 16, 2017), opposite and square (0°, 90°, 180°, 270°) the Lunar Node (4 * 86.655 days = 1 Nodical Year or Eclipse Year = 346.62 days). The Node starts wobbling about two weeks before the exact event and remains unstable until about one week after. If coupled with Solar and Lunar Eclipses, the wobble-effect can be extended. And as the Sun approaches conjunction and opposition towards the Lunar Node, it's motion is almost blocked (speed at or near zero). Notably these periods go along with exuberant mood and frenzy, most of the times correlating with rallies or crashes in financial markets. More charts on the correlation of the markets with the Rhythm of the Node HERE + HERE

SPX vs Mercury - Venus Speed Differential │ August 2017

SPX vs Declination of Mercury and Venus │ August 2017

No parallels of declination (= intersection of red and blue lines) in August, but a Venus declination swing high
on Aug 06 (Sun) and a Mercury declination swing low on Aug 16 (Wed) are potential market turn days.

SPX vs Retrograde Cycle of Uranus │ August 02 (Wed)

SoLunar Map | August - September 2017

Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are: 

Jul 31 (Mon), Aug 03 (Thu), Aug 07 (Mon) = Full Moon =  Partial Lunar Eclipse (not visible in New York), Aug 11 (Fri), Aug 15 (Tue), Aug 18 (Fri), Aug 21 (Mon) = New Moon = Black Moon = Total Solar Eclipse, Aug 25 (Fri), Aug 29 (Tue), Sep 02 (Sat), Sep 05 (Tue), Sep 09 (Sat), Sep 13 (Wed), Sep 17 (Sun), Sep 20 (Wed), Sep 24 (Sun), Sep 28 (Thu), Oct 01 (Sun). Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

These charts depict the SoLunar bias for short-term movements of stock indices two months ahead. The markets are certainly influenced also by other planetary forces - especially longer-term - but a 3-5 day short-term rhythm and pattern is governed by the SoLunar forces (= 4 highs and 4 lows per lunar month). 

The SoLunar forces are a composite of Sun-Moon angles, orbital eccentricities, declinations and some long-term cycles. A Low in the SoLunar Map frequently is a High in the stock market and vice versa. Inversions occur, and if so, they should occur only once every 4 lunar months around a New Moon (max +/- 7 days). 

The SoLunar Rhythm is frequently disturbed by (1.) the FED, and (2.) by sudden solar activity, altering the geomagnetic field, and hence the mass mood. This can result in the skip and/or inversion of pivots in the SoLunar Map. An increasing number of sunspots and flares have usually a negative influence on the stock market some 48 hours later, and vice versa (Ap values > 10 are usually short-term negative). A rising blue line in the SoLunar Map means the bias for the market is side-ways-to-up, and vice versa. Highs and lows in the SoLunar Map also may coincide with the start and termination of complex, side-ways correction patterns like zig-zags, triangles or flags. 

SPX vs SoLunar Map | August 2017 | Review & Preview

Cosmic Cluster Days | August - September 2017

Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days are:
Jul 29 (Sat), Jul 30 (Sun), Aug 06 (Sun), Aug 26 (Sat), Aug 31 (Thu), Sep 05 (Tue), Oct 13 (Fri).
Previous CCDs are HERE

The assumption is that heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets are related to financial market movements. A signal is triggered when the composite line of all aspects breaks above or below the Cosmic Noise Channel. 

Review: SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days June - July 2017 | Preview: August 2017

SPX vs CBOE Equity Put / Call Ratio │ Extreme Greed

On Friday, July 14th the CBOE Equity Put / Call Ratio closed at 0.53, signalling extreme greed. On Monday, July 17th the SPX performed a narrow range inside day (IDnr 4 and IDnr7), and closed forming a neutral doji candle. However, on July 17th the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed at 0.63, and the 3-Day Moving Average (blue line) is about to turn up (down on the inverted scale).

Wheat vs George Bayer Rule #14 │ July 14 or 17 Low (Fri or Mon)

VENUS MOVEMENTS IN GEOCENTRIC LONGITUDE USING A UNIT OF 1°9’13” 

This rule was found by measuring from the high of March 31, 1937 in Wheat. It is rather complicated for practical use, since exact measurements must be made with degrees, minutes and second [...] We use the single unit 1°9’13” [1.153611 degrees], also five times this unit or 6°55’18” [6.92166 degrees] or [...] 25 times the original 1°9’18” unit which value is 34°36’30” [34.60833 degrees]. All the measurements are to be used for geocentric longitude only. How I arrived at this 1°9’13” value I do not recall [...] During the period a planet moves retrograde we have to DEDUCT our increment, i.e. the values we use. When the motion of the planet is forward we have to ADD them. Be sure not to fail on this else no results can be expected. 

[George Bayer (1940): Stock and Commodity Traders´ Hand-Book of Trend Determination, p. 23 f., Carmel, California]

Update: July 18, 2017 07:02 AM: Wheat +1.78%

History of US Bear & Bull Markets │ 1926 - 2017

Source: First Trust Advisors L.P., Morningstar. Returns from 1926 - 3/31/17.

Equities Expensive and Commodities Cheap?

Incrementum AG (Jun 1, 2017) - In a historical context, the relative valuation of commodities to equities seems extremely low. In relation to the S&P500, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) is currently trading at the lowest level in 50 years. 

The chart outlines the valuation of the GSCI relative to the S&P500. The GSCI comprises 24 commodities from all commodity sectors and serves as a benchmark for investment in the commodity markets and as a measure of commodity performance over time. If the ratio is low (green circles), it means that commodities are cheap relative to shares. If the ratio is at a high level (red circles), like during the Gulf Crisis in 1990, the prices of raw materials are relatively expensive.

The current ratio is 0.87 while the median is at 4.1. A return to the median gives 371% potential, but in most cases a rally doesn't stop at the median. In absolute terms, the scene seems set for a new bull market for commodities. According to Ned Davis Research, commodities gained 217% on average over the period of a bull market. 

SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days | July 2017

Upcoming Cosmic Cluster-Days:
Jul 07 (Fri), Jul 15 (Sat), Jul 26 (Wed), Jul 28 (Fri), Jul 29 (Sat), Jul 30 (Sun), Aug 06 (Sun).

Presidential-, Seasonal-, Decennial- and Composite Cycle | Q3 + Q4 2017

SPX vs Mercury - Venus Speed Differential | July 2017

SPX vs Mercury and Venus Parallel of Declination | July 12 (Wed)

On July 12 (Wed) Mercury and Venus will be parallel of declination at 19 degrees north (circled in red).
This usually entails a change in trend (+/- 1 CD).
 A parallel aspect is formed between two planets with the same declination or distance north or south of the ecliptic. If the planets are both North or both South of the ecliptic, the parallel aspect is read as a conjunction. If they are the same declination but one is North and one is South, then the contra-parallel is read as a 180 degree opposition.

SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | July 2017

 Upcoming Turn-Days:
Jul 04 (Tue), Jul 12 (Wed), Jul 21 (Fri), Jul 25 (Tue), Jul 31 (Mon), Aug 04 (Fri).