SoLunar Ultra Long Term Forecast

John Hampson (2012) - Secular peaks in stocks occur around every 33 years, one luni-solar cycle, and occur close to the solar maximum. Secular commodities peaks also occur around every 33 years, one luni-solar cycle, and occur close to the solar maximum.

A secular nominal bottom, panic or crash occurs within 2 years of a solar minimum.

 

Peaks in inflation correspond to solar maximums, troughs to solar minimums. The biggest peaks in inflation correspond to commodity bull market peaks, marked C. US inflation and UK inflation shown.

 

Recessions follow solar cycle peaks, corresponding to the peaks in geomagnetism that lag solar maximums.

The 4 year period from solar minimum to solar maximum is typically one of growth and strong stock market gains. 

Crashes, panics and bottoms typically occur around solar minima. 

US secular stocks bulls last around 24 years, or 2 solar cycles. 

Secular commodity bulls last around 12 years, or 1 solar cycle.

Real (inflation-adjusted) stock prices are in a long term uptrend and follow a sine-wave of 33 year repetition.

Real (inflation-adjusted) commodities are flat over the long term, and follow a sine-wave of 33 year repetition, but of opposite polarity to stocks.

The Dow-Gold ratio is in a long term uptrend and also follows a sine-wave of 33 year repetition.

Super Long Term Delta Cycle in the SPX

SPX vs SUN square GC / VLIC vs 354 CD Cycle

The 8.6 Year Global Business Cycle 2002 - 2028 | Martin A. Armstrong

We have now crossed that peak in the current wave — 2007.15 (February 27th, 2007). We can see that the Economic Confidence Model projects out beyond my life expectancy and it will function long after I am gone as it did long before I was born. These 8.6 year waves that reflect the Business Cycle are calculated by taking the per cent of 365 days for that year. For example, 2015.75 produces (.75 x 365) that is 273.75 days into that year = October 1st, 2015. The low for this current economic debacle should be 2011.45 = June 13th, 2011.

 

The minor mid wave turning points break down as the first leg being 2.15 years or a quarter of the 8.6 year wave. The next quarter wave is typically broken into half again creating two 1.075 year weaves. We can see that in the current wave, the mid-wave turning points were 1908.225 (March 23, 2008) and 2009.3 (March 19th, 2009). Typically, these waves do not produce specific turning points to the day as is the case at the major turning points. This is due to the fact that internally there is yet another layer of activity, the 8.6 month cycle that constitute 6 weeks within each leg of the 8.6 year cycle. Again we see the structure following groupings of 6 units. This 8.6 month level of activity constitutes 37.33 weeks. There is yet another layer beneath this calculated in 8.6 week intervals, followed by still another 8.6 days, hours, minutes and believe it or not seconds.

 

2002.850  =  2000-Nov-06 (Mon)  =  Major Low
2005.000  =  2005-Jan-01 (Sat)  =  High
2006.075  =  2006-Jan-28 (Sat)  =  Low
2007.150  =  2007-Feb-24 (Sat)  =  Major High
2008.225  =  2008-Mar-23 (Sun)  =  Low
2009.300  =  2009-Apr-20 (Mon)  =  High
2011.450  =  2011-Jun-14 (Tue)  =  Major Low
2013.600  =  2013-Aug-08 (Thu)  =  High
2014.675  =  2014-Sep-04 (Thu)  =  Low
2015.750  =  2015-Oct-01 (Thu)  =  Major High
2016.825  =  2016-Oct-28 (Fri)  =  Low
2017.900  =  2017-Nov-25 (Sat)  =  High
2020.050  =  2020-Jan-19 (Sun)  =  Major Low
2022.200  =  2022-Mar-15 (Tue)  =  High
2023.275  =  2023-Apr-11 (Tue)  =  Low
2024.350  =  2024-May-07 (Tue)  =  Major High
2025.425  =  2025-Jun-05 (Thu)  =  Low
2026.500  =  2026-Jul-02 (Thu)  =  High
2028.650  =  2028-Aug-25 (Fri)  =  Major Low

 

The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a computer model that analyzes the global economy by tracking capital flows and concentration, providing a macro long-term perspective of when shifts in confidence are possible that could lead to notable economic events as demonstrated over the course of history.

• The model consists of cycle waves that vary in length, from shorter to longer, and build up over time; for example, 8.6 to 51.6 to 309.6 years.
• It examines these cycle waves to discover when they are set to culminate, reflecting a possible shift in market confidence at that point in time.
• This shift in confidence is reflected by capital flows and concentration.
• The longer the cycle wave, the greater the magnitude of the shift in confidence.
• The dates in the model that reflect possible shifts are referred to as ECM turning points.

The ECM does not track or forecast individual financial instruments, securities, or markets.

 

See also:

Martin A. Armstrong (2009) - Understanding the Real Economy.
Martin A. Armstrong (1979) - The Fractal Design of Time.

André Barbault's Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War

One of the things that all people in all nations care deeply about is war and peace. There was a french astrologer named Henri-Joseph Gouchon who designed a way of plotting planetary activity in a way that reflected times of peace or turbulence in the world. This technique, called, “The Cyclic Index,” was first publicized by astrologer, André Barbault.

André Barbault's Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War is comprised of the degree distances of all planets between Jupiter and Pluto. That is, Jupiter to Saturn; Jupiter to Uranus; Jupiter to Neptune; Jupiter to Pluto; Saturn to Uranus; Saturn to Neptune, etc. In any given year, all degree distances are measured and totaled. You do that for every year involved. Use any date in the year but use that date for every year that’s done. In other words, if the first year begins using January 1st, use January 1st for all years.

When the graph is at its low point, there are one or more conjunctions between any planets from Jupiter to Pluto. Conjunctions tend to focus on turbulence. When the graph ascends, it is telling that we are on the way to a planetary opposition within any two of the five planets involved. The low points most reflect conditions of war and turbulence in the world. Peaks are typically times of peace. (The weakness in the graph is that there is no representation for squares in it and we know that things occasionally break out when there are many squares).The Cyclic Index doesn’t make exact predictions. Rather, it shows the overall climate of world events, especially in terms of war, peace, and the economy.

Between 1953 and 1967, André Barbault was the vice-chairman of the International Center of Astrology.His work there, but also his publications led him to become the leader in the field.In 1967, he undertook the first ever application of computer technology to astrology: "Ordinastral Astroflash" which became an international business, putting André Barbault into the electronic orbit. Since 1967, he has also been the chief editor of the magazine " The Astrologer" published by Editions Traditionnelles.

W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table 1784 - 2121 | Extended and Adjusted

 

Reportedly W.D. Gann constructed his legendary Financial Time Table on August 8th, 1908, without an ephemeris. Gann himself has been quoted as saying that this was his greatest market discovery. It is entirely based on the moon’s north node, which completes a full cycle every 18.6-years. This is the same cycle that Louise McWhirter used to predict the stock market as well. To mimic the Lunar Declination Cycle Gann simply alternated a sequence of +19, +18, +19, +18 etc.-years across the top to get an average length of 18.6-years. However, he finally noted that an adjustment would finally be due for Dec 25th, 1989. The above table adjusted the pattern to the ephemeris. 

 

The Financial Time Table predicts years of recessions, depressions, high stock prices, panics, low stock prices, speculative times, stock market crashes, labor strikes and so on. The legend at the right of the table reads as follows:

A - Extreme low stock prices, strikes, repression, despair, and beginning of new business generation for 18-3/5 years. 4 years of rising stock prices and improving business, markets bare of goods. Young men becoming prominent.
B - High stock prices.
C - Panic
D - Low stock prices.
E - High stock prices.
F - Panic
G - Low stock prices.
H - Very high stock prices most prosperous year, waste over extravagance, most money in circulation, much speculation.
J - Major Panic-CRASH! 4-years of falling prices, business stagnated, breadlines, soup kitchens, despair, and unemployment.
K - Same as A plus strikes, unemployment, many prominent deaths. 

W.D. Gann also observed what he came to call the “decade cycle”. In his many commodity and stock market courses, he described the decade cycle this way: By studying the yearly high and low chart and going back over a long period of time, you will see the years in which bull markets culminate and the years in which bear markets begin and end.  Each decade, or 10-year cycle, which is one-tenth of 100 years, marks an important campaign… In referring to these numbers and these years, we mean the calendar years.  

 

To understand this, study 1891 to 1900, 1901 to 1910, 1911 to 1920, 1921 to 1930 and 1931 to 1939.  The ten year cycle continues to repeat over and over, but the greatest advances and declines occur at the end of the 20-year and 30year cycles, and again at the end of the 50-year and 60-year cycles, which are stronger than the others.

Year
1. A year in which a bear market ends and a bull market begins. 1901, 1911, 1921.
2. The second year is a year of a minor bull market, or a rally in a bear market will start at some time.  1902, 1912, 1922, 1932.
3. Starts a bear year, but the rally from the second year may run to March or April before culmination, or a decline from the 2nd year may run down and make bottom in February or March, like 1933.  1903, 1913, 1923.
4. The fourth year is a bear year, but ends the bear cycle and lays the foundation for a bull market.  Compare 1904, 1914.
5. The fifth year is the year of Ascension, and a very strong year for a bull market.  See 1905, 1915, 1925, 1935.
6. The sixth year is a bull year, in which a bull campaign which started in the fourth year ends in the Fall of the year and a fast decline starts.  See 1896, 1906, 1916, 1926.
7. Seven is a bear number and the seventh year is a bear year because 84 months or 840 degrees is 7/8ths of 90.  See 1897, 1907, 1917, but note 1927 was the end of a 60 year cycle, so not much of a decline.
8. The eighth year is a bull year.  Prices start advancing in the 7th year and reach the 90th month in the 8th year.  This is very strong and a big advance usually takes place.  Review 1898, 1908, 1918, 1928.  (2008 did not follow this pattern, which is where a little real estate cycle knowledge was helpful in this instance.)
9. Nine is the highest digit and the ninth year is the strongest of all for the bull markets.  Final bull campaigns culminate in this year after extreme advances and prices start to decline.  Bear markets usually start in September to November at the end of the 9th year and a sharp decline takes place.  See 1869, 1879, 1889, 1899, 1909, 1919 and 1929, the year of the greatest advances, culminating in the fall of that year, followed by a sharp decline.
10. Ten is a bear year.  A rally often runs until March and April; then a severe decline runs to November and December, when a new cycle begins and another rally starts.  See 1910, 1920, 1930.

Sergey Tarassov: DJIA 1789 - 2009 vs Kondratieff Cycle

Ray Tomes: 5.54 Year Cycle in Oil Prices

DJIA vs Sunspots

Periods of solar prominence (sunspots) pour forth energy, causing all earthly activities to increase, including stock market trading. The usual result of this stimulus is a major market turning point, either up or down.

Increased sunspot activity occurs whenever the planets Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Jupiter are on the same side of the Sun as the Earth. The greatest influence of all this tidal-like force occurs when Jupiter and Venus are in a helio-centric line-up with the Earth at 00, 450, and 900, but lesser activity produces the well-known Dow cycles of 89 weeks, 124 weeks, and 208 weeks.

A very good illustration of this market indicator occurred on October 19, 1987, when the market dropped 505 points. Jupiter was exactly opposite the Sun, increasing solar flares and market timing--thus forcing a market turning point. Another example is October 27, 1997, when Jupiter was square the Sun.

Helio-centric aspects to the Sun mark major market turning points, both up and down. Certain aspects are especially powerful and will influence the market for five to seven days. Examples of powerful benevolent aspects are Jupiter or Venus in aspect to Uranus, Sun, or Mercury. Powerful negative aspects are Saturn to any planet and Mars to anything except Venus and Jupiter. 

Flux is a measure of the energy output of the sun, and is an excellent indicator of overall solar activity levels.  It is associated with the 11-year sunspot cycle, but it varies a whole lot on a daily basis, as the chart illustrates.  

So why could it be that rising solar flux would lead to rising stock prices, and vice versa?   That is the deep and possibly troubling question.  Some people have theorized that the fluctuations in the amounts of charged particles hitting the wiring in our brains can affect collective moods, just as they can affect electrical power grids and microcircuitry.  That's as good of an explanation as any.  I usually operate on the philosophy that if the correlation is good enough, no explanation of the root cause is necessary. 

Here is something more to chew on: Perhaps it is not the radio flux that is really doing the job of affecting our brains' wiring, but rather the spikes in solar flares that seem to arise out of the low points in radio flux.

The next chart looks at the counts of "S Class" solar flares. One can see that the biggest spikes in the numbers of these flares tend to coincide with meaningful bottoms for stock prices.  Those spikes also happen to arrive at minimum points for total radio flux, as if the surge in solar flares kicks off the next rising phase for that measure of solar activity.  The DJIA's rise up out of the minor price bottom on Dec. 19, 2011 coincided with an upward surge in the number of these S-Class flares.  Other spikes in flares in 2011 have also coincided with important lows, although not all price lows have flare spikes to explain them.www.mcoscillator.com

Moon Wobbles

SoLunar Forecast for SPX

SPY Natal Forecast

http://www.alphee.com/exe/srv_stock_dyn.exe?T4_NATAL_DATA_SEARCH_TOWN=&D3_NATAL_DATA_TOWNS=SPY+-+SPDR+Trust+Series+1%2C&B1=Calculate+Dynamic

Nikkei vs 118 CD Cycle

This market is acting strange: the Nikkei has obviously already lost the correlation with the 118 CD Cycle. Possible reasons:

1. The semiannual variation of the geomagnetic field (http://www.ann-geophys.net/22/93/2004/angeo-22-93-2004.pdf). 

2. The shift between the Cycle of Moon in Zodiac-Signs and the Cycle of angular Distance between Moon and Sun. The 'artificial' Calendar Days = Mean Solar Days (on which our market-timing models are usually based on) and the astronomical Lunar Days (based on the angular distance between Sun and Moon, see vedic Tithis) are out of phase.

Francis Bussiere noted that the correlation between stock markets and lunar cycle gets skewed every 8 solar months (http://astrocycle.net/wordpress/index.php/category/2-stocks/1-sp-500/), that is: every second Intermediate-Term-Delta Cycle.  

If this is the case here again, stock markets may surge into March 22 New Moon and Spring Equinox.

Moon in Capricorn Low near March 15 (Thu)?
Moon 20 degrees to Sun High near March 23 (Fri)?    
Moon in Taurus Low near March 24 (Sat)?
Moon in Leo High near April 1 (Sun)? 

SPX vs Daily Moving Averages

This market is acting too strange: the SPX has advanced relentlessly since December 19, 2011 without any retrace < 1% into the February 29, 2012 high @ 1,378. And what do we get: a shy retrace of 36 points in 3 TD into the March 5.

The 5 DMA crossed the 13 DMA to the downside to find support on the 21 DMA and up we go again: on March 14 the upper resistance of the wedge was broken to the upside!


However, the VIX reversed from below its lower BB line the same day, and ended the day above it, generating an over-all sell signal for the SPX.

March 14 is 144-TD from the August 17, 2011 high. This 144 TD cycle oftentimes produces ST CITs.

SPX vs ITD: #8 = Mar 12-14

Or will the polarity flip: The annual variation of the daily average effective southward component as modified by the heliographic latitude dependence of the dominant polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field. The heavy line corresponds to a field that is inward toward the sun 671/() of the time on March 5 and 33"/c of the time on September 5. The light line corresponds to the reverse situation (http://www-ssc.igpp.ucla.edu/personnel/russell/papers/40/)

May 2013 = Bull Market High

The chart below shows the 13-Year and the 17 Year Cycles discussed in Bradley Cowan’s book Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory (p. 86 HERE) . It projects a bull market high to May 2013.

The 17-Year Cycle indicates that after a major high in 2013 there will be a bear market. The Major Low of June 1949 will compare to a Major Low around December 2016. From the low of June 1949, stocks entered into the great post World War II bull market that lasted for 17-Years. From that low in December 2016 a 17-Year major bull market comparable to 1949-1966 and 1982-2000 is due.

"Mark Of The Beast" Cycle of 666 Weeks (12.8 Years)

Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six (Revelation 13:18)

The ancient Hebrew writers of the Bible were master astrologers and undoubtedly aware of the cyclicity of panics. Living with the Chaldeans in ancient Babylonia for many years, St. John brought this base of knowledge with him when he warned in the Book of Revelation to beware the number of the Beast, 666.

This is one of the most reliable stock market cycles. Every 666 weeks it rocks the stock market with panics. 1962, 1974, 1987, and 2000 were just a few examples. This cycle has a clear astronomical correlation with the Golden Triangle and the Great Pentagram identified in this book.

The chart below is showing the 13 and 17-year cycles. Since 1915, these two cycles alone accounted for many of the largest panics and bottoms in the stock market. They are very reliable and directly correlated with a fractal planetary arrangement of the inner and outer planets on the Great Pentagram.

[see Bradley Cowan http://www.cycle-trader.com/pentagonal.htm]

Crude Oil and Recessions

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/trading_diary.php

Earlier I wrote a short note on the relationship between crude oil prices and recessions. US Gas and Fuel Oil Expenditure (as a percentage of Total Personal Consumption) gives an even clearer picture of the relationship.

Every spike in Gas and Fuel Oil Expenditure over the last 40 years has been followed by a recession — even the twin spikes in 1980 and 1981. One possible exception is the 2002-2006 rise which was only followed by recession in late 2007. This was the era of the "Greenspan bubble" when interest rates were held at low levels for an inordinate length of time, fueling the global financial crisis in 2007/2008. I guess most of us would have settled for a milder recession in 2005.

The weight of evidence favors another recession following the latest oil price spike, though the Fed should have sufficient ammunition to postpone this until after the election.

Update: Delta Pattern for SPX, NDX, FTSE & DAX

 Major US and European Stock Indices will most likely correct sideways-to-up into March 12. Above the SPX.

NDX.

FTSE

DAX

SPX DMA Study & Delta Forecast

In the daily SPX the exponential 5 day moving average (solid red line @ 1,362.59) crossed the 13 DMA (solid blue line @ 1,362.59) to the downside.

DMA 5 exp (red)
DMA 13 (blue)
DMA 21 (Yellow dotted)
DMA 34 (green dotted)
DMA 55 (magenta dotted)
DMA 233 (green)

The Delta-series now suggests the following:

• ST Low on March 6(= ITD #7 LOW) followed by a pop-up into March 7-8 (= ITD #8 HIGH?). 
• March 9 Low (10 TD Hurst Cycle Low is due on Full Moon) and turn-up intra-day. Week should close @ around 1,360.  
• March 12-15 High (= ITD #8 HIGH).  
• March 22-25 Major Low @ around 1,300 (= ITD #9 LOW = MTD #10 LOW) followed by a 
• Higher High in May 7 (= SLTD #3 HIGH = LTD #8 HIGH = MTD #11 HIGH).  

Tides @ WP (NYC) Feb - May 2012

SPX vs Delta Cycles

Today's day session range estimate is 1350-1360. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370. The May 2011 top was at 1373. After that top is exceeded a drop of 50-70 points again becomes likely. But even so I expect the market to move well above the 1400 level over the next few months.

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2012/02/guesstimates-on-february-27-2012.html