Saturday, December 9, 2023
The Grinch Barometer | Wayne Whaley
Friday, December 8, 2023
Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees of the Sun | December 2023
2023 12 08 (Fri) = SUN @ 16° SAG
2023 12 12 (Tue) = SUN @ 20° SAG = New Moon
2023 12 16 (Sat) = SUN @ 24° SAG
2023 12 28 (Thu) = SUN @ 06° CAP
Wednesday, November 29, 2023
S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern For December 2023 | Jeff Hirsch
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Nov 29, 2023) @ X
Tuesday, October 31, 2023
S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern For November 2023 | Jeff Hirsch
Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Oct 30, 2023) @ X
See also:
Tuesday, October 3, 2023
S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern for October 2023 | Jeff Hirsch
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Oct 03, 2023) @ X
See also:
TPR (2023) - Chinese 24 Solar Terms & Lunar Cycles in 2023.
Wednesday, September 13, 2023
Sell Rosh Hashanah & Buy Yom Kippur 2023 | Jeff Hirsch
Rosh Hashanah lands on Saturday 9/16 this year so we close the day before. This is right at the mid-month peak of the typical September pattern. Yom Kippur falls on 9/25 (Mon) which is the 16th trading day of the month, right around the seasonal monthly low point.
The thesis is that folks sell positions on Rosh Hashanah the first of the Days of Awe to rid themselves of financial commitments and then return to the market after Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. It is no coincidence that this coincides with the seasonal September/October weakness. The market has been tracking the 4-year cycle and seasonal trends to a T this year and the past 3. So this should make a great entry for the Q4 pre-election year rally.
Sunday, September 3, 2023
S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2022 vs 2023 | Jeff Hirsch
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Aug 23, 2023) @ X
Thursday, June 22, 2023
The 4 Year Presidential Cycle | Carol S. Mull
The 4 1/2-Year Martian Cycle
Carol S. Mull - Predicting the Dow.
In: Joan McEvers (Ed. 1989) - Financial Astrology for the 1990s.
Friday, June 16, 2023
Financial Markets & Seasonal Geomagnetic Field Variation | Hans Hannula
The physical reason behind the seasonal cycle is the tilt of the Earth's axis. The 23.5-degree tilt of the Earth's axis causes more direct heating of the northern hemisphere in the summer, when the Earth tilts toward the sun. It causes less heating in the winter, when the Earth tilts away from the sun. This change in heating and cooling causes the seasonal weather patterns that we are familiar with.
Charged particles from the sun form a teardrop-shaped envelope about the globe called the magnetosphere. |
Not so well known is the effect of the seasonal variation on the Earth's geomagnetic field. As the sun emits energy, charged particles flow outward, carried by the solar wind. As these particles sweep past Earth, they form a teardrop-shaped envelope around the globe called the magnetosphere.
There is a seasonal variation in two important parts of the magnetosphere. When the Earth tilts toward the sun in the summer, the charged particles can more directly flow into the north pole, where they affect the Earth's magnetic field. This effect is lessened when the Earth tilts away from the sun in the winter.
The second magnetic effect is on the magneto-tail, that part of the magnetosphere which streams away from the sunny side of the Earth. As the Earth tilts toward the sun, this tail "rides higher." As the Earth tilts away from the sun, the tail "rides lower." This affects how our moon, which moves in and out of the magnetosphere, interacts with the Earth's magnetic field.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology (2023): The Seasonal Distribution of Geomagnetic Disturbances. |
So what does this have to do with stocks and commodities? Scientific evidence suggests that these fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field affect humans. Studies show that magnetic field changes are linked to blood PH changes, which in turn cause mood swings. Perhaps the psychological mood swings of traders are also subject to these magnetic field changes.
More obviously, the seasonal cycle could be expected to affect crop prices, such as those of wheat, corn and other commodities. Similarly, with most businesses running on a quarterly profit cycle, seasonal variations in the buying and selling of materials and equipment can be expected. Thus, on both a fundamental and technical basis, a trader can expect season price variations in stocks and commodities.
To perform step 2, mark the dates of the cycle on a chart with solid dots, and place them above or below the price as you estimate that price is high or low relative to what it was approximately one-fourth cycle earlier. Points do not necessarily have to alternate between high and low.
Now look for cycle "inversions." If two lows or highs occur in succession, the cycle has "inverted" between the points. A normal inversion point is halfway through the cycle.
Hans Hannula (1991) - The Seasonal Cycle. In: Stocks & Commodities V. 9:11 (458-460).
Tianbao Zhou, Xinghao Li & Peng Wang (2021) - Chinese Stock Indices, Gann Time Theory & Solar Terms.
Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern of U.S. Stock Indexes | Jeffrey A. Hirsch
Reference:
Wednesday, January 4, 2023
The Turn of the Year (TOY) Barometer | Wayne Whaley
What he found was there was a high correlation between the S&P 500’s returns between November 19th and the following January 19th and the S&P’s performance the 12 months following January 19. And since the 2-month period straddled the turn of the year and the gift giving season, he called it the TOY Barometer [...] if Nov 19 is on a weekend, use the Monday after the weekend, and if Jan 19 is on a weekend, use the Friday before). He only considered the price-only return (no dividends). If the return during this 2-month period was greater than 3%, a bullish signal was given, and the market was very likely to do well over the following 12 months. If the return was 0-3%, the signal was considered neutral, and results were somewhat random and in line with what is considered average. And if the return was negative, a bearish signal was given, and returns tended to be very poor.
Neutral Signals: There have been 19 neutral signals. The following year was positive 12 times (63%), compared to 73% win rate for “all years.” The overall average and median returns were 6.0% and 7.1%. But among the “up” years, the average and median gains were 14.4% and 9.4%, while the “down” years’ average and median losses were -8.5% and -7.8%. There were several big up years (1995, 1996, 1998, 2003), and two big down years (1973, 1977), so even if there is a neutral signal, there’s still a decent chance the following 12 months will venture far from its January 19 print.
Bearish Signals: There have been 16 bearish signals. Only 6 (38%) of the following years posted a gain while 10 posted losses – and 6 of those 10 posted double digit losses. The overall average and median returns were -3.6% and -6.0%. The “up” years posted average and median gains of 14.6% and 15.5%, while the “down” years posted average and median losses of -14.6% and -12.9%. So despite the low win rate, when the market does well, it has the ability to do very well, as was the case this past year.
[...] When a bullish signal is in play, odds heavily favor solid gains over the following 12 months, but when there’s a bearish signal, odds favor a down year with a relatively big loss. But regardless of the signal, “up” years tend to be very good.
Steve Deppe (Nov 19, 2015) - Maximizing Returns With Wayne Whaley’s TOY Barometer.
Steve Deppe (Jan 20, 2016) - Whaley’s “TOY Barometer” Sends Bearish Signal To Investors.
Taylor Dart (Jan 07, 2019) - S&P 500: One Study Worth Paying Attention To.
Seth Golden (Jan 19, 2021) - State of the Market: Historic Data Studies Offer A Guide.
Leavitt Brothers (2022) - Wayne Whaley's TOY Barometer.
Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Year-End Rally, January Influence & Trend For The Year | Jack Gillen
The Moon-Stats | Jack Gillen
Jack Gillen (2002) - AstroStats for the New York Stock Exchange.
Jack Gillen (2009) - The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange (2nd Ed.).
True-Node.com (2022) - Online Ephemeris Generator.
The Mercury-Stats | Jack Gillen
[...] in those years when Mercury is retrograding there is an 85 percent chance that the DJIA price at the time it goes direct will be higher than when it was retrograding. The same is true when Mercury is retrograding in the sign of Capricorn, which holds the same accuracy rate as the ten-year cycle from 1885. In the Mercury retrograde period, those dates in bold print have a 70 - 80 percent accuracy of having a higher Dow Jones price at the end of the retrograde cycle.
Jack Gillen (2002) - AstroStats for the New York Stock Exchange.
See also:
Jack Gillen (2009) - The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange (2nd Ed.).
AstroSeek.com (2022) - Retrograde Planets 2022.
Tuesday, December 13, 2022
The Sun-Stats | Jack Gillen
Jack Gillen (2002) - There are only two statistics related to the Sun falling into the group of the 70 - 100 percent accuracy. They were both activated in the United States chart on July 4, 1776, and the natal Sun is at 13-degrees of Cancer. On July 5th of every year the Sun transits 13-degrees of Cancer. This cycle has an orb of 13 - 22 degrees of Cancer, and the transit dates would be from July 7 - 15 each year. The price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be higher on the 15th then on the 7th, and from the period of 1987 - 2001 this trend was 86.6 percent accurate with an overall percentage of 72.8.
The next statistic has been 80 percent accurate over the past 100 years, and is based on the two degrees of Venus in the United States chart to the opposition of Capricorn at two degrees, and is dominant from December 24th - 31st. This is a long position, therefore the DJIA will be higher on the 31st than on the 24th. Since the period of 1900 - 2000, this pattern has only been wrong 20 times and this was in 1911, 1925, 1926, 1930, 1937, 1943, 1947, 1948, 1953, 1966, 1968, 1978, 1979, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1992, 1996, and 1998. Therefore, going long on December 24th, I know that I have an 80 percent chance of being correct, that on December 31st the market will be higher at the close.