S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern for October 2023 | Jeff Hirsch

 

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Oct 03, 2023) @ X

See also:
TPR (2023) - Chinese 24 Solar Terms & Lunar Cycles in 2023.

 

Lunar Cycle & Chinese 24 Solar Terms - Oct 2023

Sell Rosh Hashanah & Buy Yom Kippur 2023 | Jeff Hirsch

Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur is aligning quite well this year with late September seasonal weakness and the notoriously treacherous week after quarterly options expiration, AKA Triple Witching (Fri, Sep 15th). It’s a few days before FOMC (Tue-Wed, Sep 19-20) with a market jittery on hotter inflation data.
 

Rosh Hashanah lands on Saturday 9/16 this year so we close the day before. This is right at the mid-month peak of the typical September pattern. Yom Kippur falls on 9/25 (Mon) which is the 16th trading day of the month, right around the seasonal monthly low point.

The thesis is that folks sell positions on Rosh Hashanah the first of the Days of Awe to rid themselves of financial commitments and then return to the market after Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. It is no coincidence that this coincides with the seasonal September/October weakness. The market has been tracking the 4-year cycle and seasonal trends to a T this year and the past 3. So this should make a great entry for the Q4 pre-election year rally.

Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Sep 13, 2023) - Sell Rosh Hashanah Buy Yom Kippur Sets Up.

 

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Sep 03, 2023) - S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2022 vs 2023.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2014) - Best 6 Months.

S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2022 vs 2023 | Jeff Hirsch

References:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Aug 23, 2023) @ X

J.C. Parets (Sep 3, 2023) @ X

 

Lunar Cycle & Chinese 24 Solar Terms - Sep 2023

The 4 Year Presidential Cycle | Carol S. Mull

The 3 1/3 - Year Kitchin Cycle

Within the average 11.094-year sunspot cycle, there are shorter periods of solar prominence which occur every 40 or 42 months. These were first recognized in 1923 by the American economist Joseph Kitchin. They account for trade fluctuations and have a marked effect on terrestrial weather, alternating between hot and dry to cold and wet. Articles in Cycles magazine proclaim a 40.68-month cycle, an example of which follows:

The Mars/Vesta Cycle (4.17 years)

The planet Mars and the asteroid Vesta have a synodic cycle period of 4.17 years. (Mars often serves as a trigger planet to aspects of the heavier business planets (Saturn, Uranus, and Jupiter); Vesta has consistently been found in a prominent position in the natal horoscopes of stock traders.) The Dow is likely to peak at the first square (90-degree angle from the conjunction) between Mars and Vesta and to bottom at the second trine aspect (240-degree angle from the conjunction). Based on this, you should have bought May 28, 1985, and sold on December 7, 1987. (Ed. Note: October 19, 1987 was Black Monday. December would have been too late in this case.)

The 4 1/2-Year Martian Cycle

According to Lt.Comdr. David Williams, author of Financial Astrology (American Federation of Astrologers), the Mars/Jupiter 4 1/2-year cycle is one of the most dependable market indicators. Mars and Jupiter are in conjunction or opposition every 2.2353 years. Thus, every other conjunction is 4.4706 years, or approximately 234 weeks. Thomas Rieder, author of Astrological Warnings & the Stock Market (Pagurian Press), ties the 4 1/2-year cycle to the synodic period of Mars, The synodic period of a planet is the length of time elapsing between two successive conjunctions of that planet with the Sun as seen from Earth. Mars conjoins the Sun at intervals of about two years and three months, so this cycle is just twice the synodic period of Mars.

 The 4-Year Presidential Cycle

The 3 1/3-, 4.17-, and 4 1/2-year cycles overlap and become what is sometimes referred to as the 4-year presidential cycle. It is theorized that the government stimulates the economy at election time to provide the illusion of prosperity and to insure the re-election of the President. However, closer analysis reveals that the cycle also exists in countries where elections are held every six or eight years or not at all.

Quoted from:
Carol S. Mull - Predicting the Dow.
In: Joan McEvers (Ed. 1989) - Financial Astrology for the 1990s.

 

See also:

 Carol S. Mull (1989) - Astrological Methods of Forecasting the DJIA.

Carol S. Mull (1989) - The Lunar Cycle.

Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern of U.S. Stock Indexes | Jeffrey A. Hirsch

In 2023 the 15th trading day of June will be Wednesday, 21st - summer solstice.

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch @ Twitter.

Presidential-, Seasonal-, Decennial- and Composite Cycle | Q3 + Q4 2017

The Best Seasonal Time of the Year | Feb 15 - May 10

Feb 15 - May 10 (Source: Nautilus Research)

First Quarter 2017 | Presidential Cycle + Seasonal Pattern + Decennial Cycle of the DJIA (HERE)

DJIA Performance during Presidential Terms | 1900-2017

Bespoke (Jan 19, 2017) - Through Thursday, the DJIA is up over 148% (not including dividends) since the close on [Obama's] Inauguration Day 2009, and that ranks as the fourth best return for the DJIA under any President since 1900. Calvin Coolidge presided over a gain of 251.7% during his time in office [...] followed by Clinton (227%), and FDR (197%) [...] Hoover presided over a decline of over 80% [...] the second George Bush saw the DJIA fall 22%.

DJIA 2017 | Presidential Cycle + Seasonal Pattern + Decennial Cycle

Seasonal Cycle (1900-2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.99%

1st Year of the Presidential Cycle (2017) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +5.48%

7th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2017) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +4.82%

"The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more

or less active for each year, as the Sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the

same date every year. So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern."

Jack Gillen (1979): The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange.

SPX vs Presidential + Decennial + Annual Cycles | Dec 2016 – Jan 2017

Calculation: www.moneychimp.com

Does the Stock Market predict the US Presidential Election?

Almanacist | The UK Stock Market Almanac (Oct 12, 2016) - The 14 charts above show the performance of the FTSE All-Share index over the 12 months of a US presidential election year. For example, the first chart shows the January-December performance of the UK market in 1960, the year John Kennedy was elected President of the United States. The dashed line in each chart indicates the date of the election.

  
However, "Trump is headed for a win", says Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor
of history at American University, who has predicted 30 years of presidential
outcomes correctly (HERE)

SPX vs 93 Trading Day Cycle + US Election

93 Trading Days ≈ 135 Calendar Days ≈ 19.3 Weeks ≈ 4.5 Months ≈ 0.37 Years.
Regardless of the election outcome, in November and December the S&P 500 advances 72.2% of the time.
(Source: Jeff Hirsch - see also HERE)

Stan Harley: November 8 (Tue) = Cycle Low in Stocks + Crude Oil (HERE)

SPX vs Presidential + Decennial + Annual Cycles | October 2016

SPX vs Presidential + Decennial + Annual Cycles | September 2016

September is the only month to show more losing months than winning months
over the past 66 years. It also sports the largest average loss (-0.68%).
October actually has a decent track record (up 41 times - or 62% of the
time - down 25 times, with an average gain of +0.80%). However, this
record is tainted somewhat as many investors - not entirely incorrectly -
have come to refer to October as "Crash Month". To wit, 1929, 1930, 1932,
1933, 1937, 1941, 1978, 1979, 1987, 1997 and 2008 all witnessed sharp
declines in the stock market during the month of October.
Calculation: www.moneychimp.com

Presidential + Decennial + Annual Patterns | 2016 - 2019

See also HERE

SPX vs Presidential + Decennial + Annual Patterns | August 2016

SPX vs Presidential + Decennial + Annual Patterns | June 2016

Presidential Cycle + Decennial Cycle + SoLunar Map | April 2016

SPX vs Presidential Cycle + Decennial Cycle | January - November 2016

Presidential Cycle + Seasonal Pattern + Decennial Cycle for March 2016

Seasonal Cycle Mar 01 - Mar 31 (1900-2015) = +0.82%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Mar 01 - Mar 31 = +1.96%
4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Mar 01 - Mar 31 = +1.95%
SoLunar Map: Feb 26 (Fri), Mar 01 (Tue), Mar 05 (Sat), Mar 08 (Tue), Mar 12 (Sat),
Mar 16 (Wed), Mar 19 (Sat), Mar 23 (Wed), Mar 27 (Sun), Mar 30 (Wed)

Seasonal Cycle Jan 01 - May 31 (1900-2015) = +2.82%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - May 31 = +3.49%
4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - May 31 = -0.97%

Seasonal Cycle (1900-2015) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.99%
4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.52%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.98%

4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.52%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.98%
1st Year of the Presidential Cycle (2017) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +5.48%
7th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2017) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +4.82%
2nd Year of the Presidential Cycle (2018) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +2.99%
8th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2018) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +13.13%
3rd Year of the Presidential Cycle (2019) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +10.12%
9th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2019) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +10.62%