Source: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2017 |
Monday, February 27, 2017
Shifting World Stock Markets and Industries │1900 vs 2016
Labels:
China,
Credit Suisse,
Germany Japan,
Stock Market,
UK,
US-Stocks,
USA
Sunday, February 26, 2017
Droughts and Floods vs Jupiter-Saturn Cycle and Lunar Declination Cycle
Kevin Long (Jul 7, 2011) - Planetary and lunar cycles play an important part in shaping the climate, and also Australia’s flood and drought cycles are influenced by these forces. The Central Victorian rainfall records reveal that the 18.6 year lunar declination cycle and the 19.86 year synodic cycle of Jupiter-Saturn can each enhance or diminish average rainfall over prolonged periods resulting in extreme flood and extreme drought cycles. When these two cycles are closely in-phase with each other and are supported by the El Nino or the La Nina cycle, extreme droughts and extreme floods are likely to occur. This was the case during the early months of 2011 and enhanced by a very strong La Nina cycle during the preceding 9 months. Another major drought period is scheduled to occur around the middle of this lunar cycle (2020).
The above graph shows the long-term rainfall record for Bendigo in Central Victoria, Australia. The Central Victorian climate is particularly sensitive to any changes in average air movements (air tides). This is due to the generally flat terrain of the area, which means the effects of the cosmic cycles are more prominent than in most other places in the world. This can be seen to occur with about 80% reliability during the last 66 years. The dominating effects are most obvious when a four-year rolling average line is used (thick line). The spacing of the recent droughts to flood periods appears to closely follow the “9.3 year rule” (i.e. half of the 18.6 year moon cycle). Peaks and troughs relative to the Bendigo’s long-term average of 544 mm are:
1944 Severe drought (284 mm)
1954-56 Typical three years of major floods (average 737 mm)
1967 Severe drought (278 mm)
1973-75 Wettest ever three year flood period (average 861 mm).
1982 Driest year on record (206mm)
1992-93 Two years of flood period (averaging 729 mm per year
2002 After 9 years of declining average rainfall, 2002 delivered only 271mm
2010 Eleven consecutive months of above-average rainfall set a new Bendigo record of 1061 mm.
Labels:
Astrometeorology,
Astronomy,
Climatology,
Declination,
Jupiter - Saturn Cycle,
Kevin Long,
Long Range Weather Forecasting,
Lunar Node Cycle,
Solar Cycle
Saturday, February 25, 2017
Energy War over Syria │ The Geopolitics of Oil and Gas Pipelines
Major Planned Pipelines - Enlarge |
Russia, the Western powers and the Gulf States are fighting for the best starting position for gas and oil supplies for the European market. France, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia and the United States, in particular, are interfering in the distribution struggle without any reference to international law, while Russia's support to the legal Syrian government is fully in line with international law.
Two of the most important oil markets are located in the Syrian cities of Manbij and al-Bab, both of which are located in the Aleppo province. These two cities are also the most important pipeline, the oil from Iraq - from Mosul and al-Qaim - transported to Syria as far as the province of Idlib.
Territorial Control - Enlarge |
The fog of war and the realm of uncertainty: Russian and US Airstrikes - Enlarge |
Another planned pipeline was originally to go from the Israeli Golan Heights via Damascus to Turkey. This pipeline would allow Israel to emerge as a gas supplier, provided the government is overthrown in Damascus. But Russia does not want any competitors in the gas market.
In connection with the pipeline routes, the planned "Kurdish corridor" is also critical. The Caucasus Strategic Research Center (KAFKASSAM) in Ankara reports: "The real objective of this corridor is to transport the Kurdish oil and gas from the Northern Iraq over Northern Syria to the Mediterranean by pipeline there. In addition, the US had planned to build another pipeline from the Persian Gulf to the Northern Iraq and from there via Northern Syria. Thus, both Iraq and Turkey should be brought to the West and especially to Europe on the energy market through both Turkey and Northern Syria. But the plan to found a Kurdish corridor fell into the water because the Russians intervened in Syria. Russia is opposed to this corridor because Europe is to be maintained as a customer of Russian energy carriers. Russia will under no circumstances give up its position on the European market." See also HERE + HERE + HERE + HERE
War as the continuation of politics and economic interest by other means. |
Labels:
100 Year War Cycle,
Carl von Clausewitz,
Crude Oil,
France,
Geopolitics,
Iran,
Islamism,
Israel,
Natural Gas,
Qatar,
Russia,
Saudi Arabia,
Syria,
Turkey,
UK,
USA,
WWIII
Wednesday, February 22, 2017
Earthquakes, Moonquakes, Pandemics, and the Solar Cycle
Benjamin Deniston et al. (2012) - Several studies have pointed to a correlation between earthquake activity and the 11 year solar cycle, e.g. in 2011 Jusoh Mohamad Huzaimy and Kiyohumi Yumoto,
two researchers out of Kyushu University, Japan, took the 4,108 large,
shallow earthquakes from 1963-2010, and compared them with the phases of
the last four solar cycles. What they showed was that for each
magnitude range there were consistently more earthquakes during the
declining phase of the solar cycle through solar minimum, when compared
with the ascending phase through the solar maximum. This discrepancy was
most pronounced for the largest earthquakes.
The
last decade, which contained the longest solar minimum of the century,
also saw the most magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes and the greatest number of
large volcanic eruptions for any decade over the past century. These
relations should cause us to consider what types of similar activity
might be occurring on other bodies of our solar system. Unfortunately,
the best data we have is from the eight years during which we had
operational seismometers on the Moon (1969-1977, left behind from some
of the Apollo missions). During this operational window, out of the
thousands of registered lunar seismic events, only 28 of them originated
below the lunar surface (for example, not due to surface impacts by
meteorites), and have been identified as “shallow moonquakes.” Their very existence is a mystery, as there are no active plate tectonics on the Moon.
What is remarkable is that 23 of thoe 28 moonquakes occurred during the half of the Moon’s orbit when the near side of the Moon (on which the seismometers were placed) was facing a specific direction relative to the fixed stars, indicating a relationship not even to solar activity, but, as Yosio Nakamura, a world expert on lunar seismic activity and the author of the study says, to something originating outside of our solar system.
There is also long-standing evidence showing that the incidence of diseases fluctuates with the Earth-Sun relationship. The most well known of these fluctuations is the seasonal flu pandemic. None of the conventional explanations for why influenza flares up during the northern hemisphere winter (environmental humidity, vitamin D deficiency, etc.) has yet been validated, yet the seasonal variations are very real. Further, this cycle of seasonal outbreaks is also a cycle of the evolution of the virus itself, a phenomenon which has not been explained by the standard models of mutation and selection. This seasonal variation would seem to imply a relationship between influenza outbreaks and the location of our planet with respect to the Sun. In fact, looking beyond the yearly variations, the major flu pandemics of the past century exhibit an interesting pattern: the dates were 1946, 1957, 1968, and 1977, which imply a period of roughly 11 years, provocatively matching the sunspot cycle over this period. Taking this back farther, if we map the major flu pandemics against the cycles of sunspot numbers for the last 300 years we get the following plot.
Pandemics occur in clusters. If we connect the sunspot peaks, which indicate how solar activity changes from one cycle to the next, then we see that the pandemic clusters occur during periods of more active successive solar cycles. An initial hypothesis might be that such a correlation implies a relationship between some solar parameter, such as ultraviolet radiation, and influenza pandemics. Notable exceptions to this correlation — specifically, the cases where pandemics fall on years of sunspot minima — point to a causal agent on a grander scale. Researcher Yu Zhen-Dong has shown evidence that pandemics occurring during solar minima show a close coincidence with bright supernovae and other sources of ground-level cosmic radiation. This implies a galactic rather than solar driver of the phenomenon, with cosmic radiation influx from outside of our solar system as the main culprit, rather than incident solar UV radiation. That is, the changes associated with solar activity are likely rather caused by the Sun’s well-known role in moderating the influx of cosmic radiation into our solar system.
What is remarkable is that 23 of thoe 28 moonquakes occurred during the half of the Moon’s orbit when the near side of the Moon (on which the seismometers were placed) was facing a specific direction relative to the fixed stars, indicating a relationship not even to solar activity, but, as Yosio Nakamura, a world expert on lunar seismic activity and the author of the study says, to something originating outside of our solar system.
There is also long-standing evidence showing that the incidence of diseases fluctuates with the Earth-Sun relationship. The most well known of these fluctuations is the seasonal flu pandemic. None of the conventional explanations for why influenza flares up during the northern hemisphere winter (environmental humidity, vitamin D deficiency, etc.) has yet been validated, yet the seasonal variations are very real. Further, this cycle of seasonal outbreaks is also a cycle of the evolution of the virus itself, a phenomenon which has not been explained by the standard models of mutation and selection. This seasonal variation would seem to imply a relationship between influenza outbreaks and the location of our planet with respect to the Sun. In fact, looking beyond the yearly variations, the major flu pandemics of the past century exhibit an interesting pattern: the dates were 1946, 1957, 1968, and 1977, which imply a period of roughly 11 years, provocatively matching the sunspot cycle over this period. Taking this back farther, if we map the major flu pandemics against the cycles of sunspot numbers for the last 300 years we get the following plot.
The 1946, 1957, 1968, and 1977 pandemics shown over the last 6 solar cycles. |
Pandemics occur in clusters. If we connect the sunspot peaks, which indicate how solar activity changes from one cycle to the next, then we see that the pandemic clusters occur during periods of more active successive solar cycles. An initial hypothesis might be that such a correlation implies a relationship between some solar parameter, such as ultraviolet radiation, and influenza pandemics. Notable exceptions to this correlation — specifically, the cases where pandemics fall on years of sunspot minima — point to a causal agent on a grander scale. Researcher Yu Zhen-Dong has shown evidence that pandemics occurring during solar minima show a close coincidence with bright supernovae and other sources of ground-level cosmic radiation. This implies a galactic rather than solar driver of the phenomenon, with cosmic radiation influx from outside of our solar system as the main culprit, rather than incident solar UV radiation. That is, the changes associated with solar activity are likely rather caused by the Sun’s well-known role in moderating the influx of cosmic radiation into our solar system.
Laith M. Karim and Marwa H. Abbas (2014): The Relation between Influenza Pandemics and Solar Activity. |
Pandemic influenza mapped against sunspot number and nova occurrences (mostly flare-ups of our near neighbor Nova η Carinae) for the past 300 years. |
Labels:
Benjamin Deniston,
Earthquakes,
Jusoh Mohamad Huzaimy,
Kiyohumi Yumoto,
Laith M. Karim,
Marwa H. Abbas,
Moonquakes,
Pandemics,
Solar Cycle,
Sunspots,
Yosio Nakamura
Saturday, February 18, 2017
The Depiction of Time and Space out of Scipio's Dream
It is common to think of statistical graphics and data visualization as relatively modern developments in statistics. In fact, the graphic representation of quantitative information has deep roots, reaching into the histories of the earliest map making and visual depiction of astronomy, and later into thematic cartography and many other fields. The idea of coordinates was used by ancient Egyptian surveyors in laying out towns, earthly and heavenly positions were located by something akin to latitude and longitude by at least 200 B.C., and the map projection of a spherical Earth into latitude and longitude by Claudius Ptolemy (85–165) in Alexandria would serve as reference standards until the 14th century.
Among the earliest graphical depictions of quantitative information is the above anonymous 10th-century multiple time-series graph of the changing position of the seven most prominent heavenly bodies over space and time. The vertical axis represents the inclination of the planetary orbits; the horizontal axis shows time, divided into 30 intervals. The sinusoidal variation with different periods is notable, as is the use of a grid,suggesting both an implicit notion of a coordinate system and something akin to graph paper, ideas that would not be fully developed until the 1600-1700s. In the 14th century, the idea of plotting a theoretical function (as a proto bar graph) and the logical relation between tabulating values and plotting them appeared in a work by Nicole Oresme (1323-1382), Bishop of Liseus, followed somewhat later by the idea of a theoretical graph of distance vs. speed by Nicolas of Cusa.
Planetary movements shown as cyclic inclinations over time, by an unknown astronomer, appearing in a 10th-century appendix to commentaries by Macrobius on Cicero’s Somnium Sciponis. This is the earliest known 2-dimensional charts (plotting time vs. celestial latitude; an apparent anomaly is that it appears to show the celestial latitude of the Sun varying with time); the scribe used horizontal and vertical lines as aids, resulting in a picture strikingly similar to modern graph paper as it did not become commonly used before the mid 19th century, some 700 years later. This picture is a notable anomaly, as the earliest comparable "graph" diagram do not emerge prior to the late medieval period, some 250 years after this drawing was made. Source: Wikimedia. |
Among the earliest graphical depictions of quantitative information is the above anonymous 10th-century multiple time-series graph of the changing position of the seven most prominent heavenly bodies over space and time. The vertical axis represents the inclination of the planetary orbits; the horizontal axis shows time, divided into 30 intervals. The sinusoidal variation with different periods is notable, as is the use of a grid,suggesting both an implicit notion of a coordinate system and something akin to graph paper, ideas that would not be fully developed until the 1600-1700s. In the 14th century, the idea of plotting a theoretical function (as a proto bar graph) and the logical relation between tabulating values and plotting them appeared in a work by Nicole Oresme (1323-1382), Bishop of Liseus, followed somewhat later by the idea of a theoretical graph of distance vs. speed by Nicolas of Cusa.
Labels:
Claudius Ptolemy,
Inclination,
Latitude,
Macrobius Ambrosius Theodosius,
Marcus Tullius Cicero,
Nicolas of Cusa,
Nicole Oresme,
OT,
Space,
Speed,
Spherical Astronomy,
Sun,
Time
Sunspots and the Price of Corn and Wheat | William Stanley Jevons
William Stanley Jevons (1835–1882) |
William Stanley Jevons (1835–1882) was
a British economist and philosopher who foreshadowed several developments of the 20th
century. He is one of the main contributors to the ‘marginal revolution’, which
revolutionized economic theory and shifted classical to neoclassical economics.
He was the first economist to construct index numbers, and he had a tremendous
influence on the development of empirical methods and the use of statistics and
econometrics in the social sciences. Jevons also analyzed business cycles,
proposing that crises in the economy might not be random events, but might be
based on discernible prior causes. To clarify the concept, he presented a statistical
study relating business cycles with sunspots.
Daniel Kuester & Charles R. Britton (2000) - William Stanley Jevons summarized his
thoughts on the effects of weather on economic activity in three chapters of
his book Investigations in Currency and Finance (1909). An in-depth examination of these essays reveals some very
interesting conclusions. In the first essay entitled “The Solar Period and the Price of Corn” (1875) he first
investigates the striking similarity between the length of many historical
business cycles and the length of the average length of the sunspot cycle.
Jevons finds that the prices of most agricultural products vary dramatically
over an eleven year cycle. He cites English agricultural price data from the
years 1259-1400. The prices of wheat, barley, oats, beans, peas, and rye reach
a relative minimum in the second year of the cycle, an absolute maximum in the
fourth year of the cycle and an absolute minimum in the tenth year of the cycle
before recovering in the final year of the cycle and the first year of the new
cycle. There does appear to be a rather obvious and consistent trend in prices
over these eleven year periods. Jevons discovers that the data (English wheat
prices from 1595-1761) available to him in the Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations (1776) confirm similar although less marked
trends in agricultural prices.
Jevons does not discount other significant factors that might cause the rather predictable nature of these business cycles. Technological advancements, wars, and other factors independent of agricultural and weather cycles can and do exhibit great influence over the economic well being of a nation. Also consumer confidence or a lack thereof could cause significant variations in spending and employment. However, Jevons believes that these consumer attitudes may also be related to the sunspot theory and the corresponding droughts and bumper crops which may result. “If, then the English money market is naturally fitted to swing or roll in periods of ten or eleven years, comparatively slight variations in the goodness of harvests repeated at like intervals would suffice to produce those alterations of depression, activity, excitement and collapse which undoubtedly recur in well- marked succession.” Jevons believes that if it were possible to accurately predict the sunspot cycle and the corresponding bumper crops and droughts then it would also be possible to predict impending economic crises.
In the second essay “The Periodicity of Commercial Crisis and Its Physical Explanation” (1878) with “Postscript” (1882) W.S. Jevons continues his study. In this essay he attempts to find empirical evidence to support his claim that business cycles follow predictable patterns which can be tied to the length of the sunspot cycles. Jevons claims that the relationship between weather patterns and business activity display a stronger relationship in primarily agrarian societies such as India and Africa. This claim makes this subject more meaningful in studying the relationship between weather patterns and economic activity in arid and semi- arid lands.
One piece of empirical evidence which W.S. Jevons believed would strengthen his sunspot business cycle theory actually has weakened this theory somewhat in retrospect. “There is more or less evidence that trade reached a maximum of activity in or about the years 1701, 1711, 1721, 1732, 1742, 1753, 1763, 1772, 1783, 1793, 1805, 1815, 1825, 1837, 1847, 1857, 1866. These years marked by the bursting of a commercial panic or not, are as nearly as I can judge, corresponding years, and the intervals, vary only form nine to twelve years. There being in all an interval of one hundred and sixty five years, broken into sixteen periods, the average length of the period is about 10.3 years.” Jevons points out that it is reasonable for the business cycles to vary somewhat in duration as it is reasonable to expect that there will be different lags between droughts and economic downturns based on inventories available and on the variations in trade patterns and ability to obtain imports quickly.
Potentially the most troubling conclusion that Jevons reached was that a sunspot cycle and the corresponding changes in agricultural yield and national productivity would follow a predictable pattern of approximately 10.3 years. Most astronomers now believe that the sunspot cycle does indeed last approximately 11.11 years which is somewhat troubling and is something that Jevons’ son attempts to address. This potential difference in sunspot duration is a primary reason this subject has not been studied as much as might be expected. However the findings of García-Mata and Shaffner provide some credence to Jevons’ theory. “Summing up, we can say that from a statistical point of view there appears to be a clear correlation between the major cycles of non-agricultural business activity in the United States and the solar cycle of 11+ years.” These authors also claim that it is reasonable that there could be some variation in the duration between sunspot cycles and that there is evidence that these cycles do correspond with business activity.
The third essay on sunspots and the business cycle was entitled “Commercial Crisis and Sun-Spots Part I” (1878) and “Part II” (1879) completed W. S. Jevons thoughts on the relationship of weather and business activity. In this essay he continues to discuss the existence of a solar cycle of 10.45 years as being wholly consistent with his findings and being a better predictor of economic variables than the now widely used duration of 11.11 years. Despite this potentially unfortunate conclusion Jevons elaborates on the potential relationship between solar and weather cycles and economic activity. He concludes that solar patterns should be studied to determine if a causal relationship does indeed exist between solar patterns and economic activity. If so, then policies should be enacted to reduce the magnitude of the contraction/recession parts of the business cycle. Jevons further elaborates on the importance of the solar cycle on consumer confidence and spending. “From that sun which is truly ‘of this great world both eye and soul’ we derive our strength and our weakness, our success and our failure, our elation in commercial mania, and our despondency and ruin in commercial collapse.” Jevons also finds more empirical evidence that corn prices in Delhi reach maximum and minimum in a similar eleven year pattern which has been exhibited in Europe. Once more this theory seems much more applicably to arid and semi-arid regions such as India.
William Stanley Jevons’ son H. Stanley Jevons continued his work on sunspots
and published “Changes at the Sun’s Heat
as the Cause of Fluctuations of the Activity of Trade and of Unemployment”
in Contemporary Review in 1909. He
reissued it in a monograph entitled The
Sun’s Heat and Trade Activity (1910) in which he further examined and
elaborated on the subject. H. S. Jevons believed that his father had some
excellent ideas in relating the sunspot theory to the length of business cycles
although he does acknowledge some of the criticisms which have been leveled at
the work W.S. Jevons did. He states that the sun’s activity has some effect on
economic outcomes and while it is not the only variable which should be
considered when formulating economic policy it is worth considering when formulating
economic policy.
H.S. Jevons acknowledges that his father was in error when he claimed that he solar cycle would only last approximately 10.45 years. He claims that W.S. Jevons attempted to oversimplify his findings and he ignored some events which created economic booms and busts which had nothing to do with arid land’s agricultural productivity. This is what led him to the false 10.45 year business cycle predictor. However he found that wheat production in the United States displayed significant variation during the nineteenth century and reached its peak approximately every 11.11 years. He found a direct relationship between solar activity and wheat production in the United States. H.S. Jevons believes that the eleven year sunspot cycle is actually a combination of three shorter sunspot cycles which were just over three years in duration. There would be a period of drought approximately every 3.5 years and a period of cold damp weather approximately every 3.5 years. This great harvest would precipitate a trade boom according to Jevons. He finds data that suggest the production of pig iron and agricultural produce in the United States were closely related and followed the sunspot cycle closely. He also states that on occasion the business cycle will only correspond with two of these shorter sunspot cycles explaining the variation in business cycles between seven and eleven years. This can explain the error that W.S. Jevons did not understand about the variation in the length of business cycles. H.S. Jevons provides several suggestions as to how this information about solar activity can be useful. He believes that if output and therefore trade can be expected to decline in the near future that there should be wage cuts to attempt to ensure full employment. This suggestion is not reasonable today but if we are going to engage in interventionary fiscal and monetary policy the potential to predict shortfalls in productivity and potentially consumer confidence can have meaningful implications for expansionary monetary policies being enacted. This is particularly useful if there are actual psychological ties between solar activity and consumer’s attitudes which sounds far fetched but may occur. Jevons also recommends less domestic reliance on crops would reduce the variation in economic prosperity. While crop production is still important in many arid and semi-arid lands, this is not as meaningful to the economy as it was when Jevons wrote.
Jevons does not discount other significant factors that might cause the rather predictable nature of these business cycles. Technological advancements, wars, and other factors independent of agricultural and weather cycles can and do exhibit great influence over the economic well being of a nation. Also consumer confidence or a lack thereof could cause significant variations in spending and employment. However, Jevons believes that these consumer attitudes may also be related to the sunspot theory and the corresponding droughts and bumper crops which may result. “If, then the English money market is naturally fitted to swing or roll in periods of ten or eleven years, comparatively slight variations in the goodness of harvests repeated at like intervals would suffice to produce those alterations of depression, activity, excitement and collapse which undoubtedly recur in well- marked succession.” Jevons believes that if it were possible to accurately predict the sunspot cycle and the corresponding bumper crops and droughts then it would also be possible to predict impending economic crises.
In the second essay “The Periodicity of Commercial Crisis and Its Physical Explanation” (1878) with “Postscript” (1882) W.S. Jevons continues his study. In this essay he attempts to find empirical evidence to support his claim that business cycles follow predictable patterns which can be tied to the length of the sunspot cycles. Jevons claims that the relationship between weather patterns and business activity display a stronger relationship in primarily agrarian societies such as India and Africa. This claim makes this subject more meaningful in studying the relationship between weather patterns and economic activity in arid and semi- arid lands.
One piece of empirical evidence which W.S. Jevons believed would strengthen his sunspot business cycle theory actually has weakened this theory somewhat in retrospect. “There is more or less evidence that trade reached a maximum of activity in or about the years 1701, 1711, 1721, 1732, 1742, 1753, 1763, 1772, 1783, 1793, 1805, 1815, 1825, 1837, 1847, 1857, 1866. These years marked by the bursting of a commercial panic or not, are as nearly as I can judge, corresponding years, and the intervals, vary only form nine to twelve years. There being in all an interval of one hundred and sixty five years, broken into sixteen periods, the average length of the period is about 10.3 years.” Jevons points out that it is reasonable for the business cycles to vary somewhat in duration as it is reasonable to expect that there will be different lags between droughts and economic downturns based on inventories available and on the variations in trade patterns and ability to obtain imports quickly.
Potentially the most troubling conclusion that Jevons reached was that a sunspot cycle and the corresponding changes in agricultural yield and national productivity would follow a predictable pattern of approximately 10.3 years. Most astronomers now believe that the sunspot cycle does indeed last approximately 11.11 years which is somewhat troubling and is something that Jevons’ son attempts to address. This potential difference in sunspot duration is a primary reason this subject has not been studied as much as might be expected. However the findings of García-Mata and Shaffner provide some credence to Jevons’ theory. “Summing up, we can say that from a statistical point of view there appears to be a clear correlation between the major cycles of non-agricultural business activity in the United States and the solar cycle of 11+ years.” These authors also claim that it is reasonable that there could be some variation in the duration between sunspot cycles and that there is evidence that these cycles do correspond with business activity.
Christopher Scheiner's 1626 representation of the changes in sunspots over time (1630, recordings from 1611). Scheiner, a Jesuit astronomer, eventually published the definitive work of the 17th century on sunspots, in which he accepted Galileo’s argument that sunspots "move like ships" on the surface of the Sun. Scheiner and Galileo agreed that sunspots counted against the Aristotelian doctrine of celestial incorruptibility. Earlier Jesuits had been open on this point. Clavius argued for the corruptibility of the heavens after the nova of 1572. Scheiner here publicized the fact that the Jesuit theologian Robert Bellarmine had argued for the igneous nature of the stars and the corruptibility of the heavens even before 1572 on the basis of biblical exegesis and the tradition of the Church Fathers. Cardinal Orsini paid for the printing of this lavish work (Rosa Ursina - The Rose of Orsini, 1630). |
The third essay on sunspots and the business cycle was entitled “Commercial Crisis and Sun-Spots Part I” (1878) and “Part II” (1879) completed W. S. Jevons thoughts on the relationship of weather and business activity. In this essay he continues to discuss the existence of a solar cycle of 10.45 years as being wholly consistent with his findings and being a better predictor of economic variables than the now widely used duration of 11.11 years. Despite this potentially unfortunate conclusion Jevons elaborates on the potential relationship between solar and weather cycles and economic activity. He concludes that solar patterns should be studied to determine if a causal relationship does indeed exist between solar patterns and economic activity. If so, then policies should be enacted to reduce the magnitude of the contraction/recession parts of the business cycle. Jevons further elaborates on the importance of the solar cycle on consumer confidence and spending. “From that sun which is truly ‘of this great world both eye and soul’ we derive our strength and our weakness, our success and our failure, our elation in commercial mania, and our despondency and ruin in commercial collapse.” Jevons also finds more empirical evidence that corn prices in Delhi reach maximum and minimum in a similar eleven year pattern which has been exhibited in Europe. Once more this theory seems much more applicably to arid and semi-arid regions such as India.
Sunspot illustration from Scheiner's Rosa Ursina, 1630. |
H.S. Jevons acknowledges that his father was in error when he claimed that he solar cycle would only last approximately 10.45 years. He claims that W.S. Jevons attempted to oversimplify his findings and he ignored some events which created economic booms and busts which had nothing to do with arid land’s agricultural productivity. This is what led him to the false 10.45 year business cycle predictor. However he found that wheat production in the United States displayed significant variation during the nineteenth century and reached its peak approximately every 11.11 years. He found a direct relationship between solar activity and wheat production in the United States. H.S. Jevons believes that the eleven year sunspot cycle is actually a combination of three shorter sunspot cycles which were just over three years in duration. There would be a period of drought approximately every 3.5 years and a period of cold damp weather approximately every 3.5 years. This great harvest would precipitate a trade boom according to Jevons. He finds data that suggest the production of pig iron and agricultural produce in the United States were closely related and followed the sunspot cycle closely. He also states that on occasion the business cycle will only correspond with two of these shorter sunspot cycles explaining the variation in business cycles between seven and eleven years. This can explain the error that W.S. Jevons did not understand about the variation in the length of business cycles. H.S. Jevons provides several suggestions as to how this information about solar activity can be useful. He believes that if output and therefore trade can be expected to decline in the near future that there should be wage cuts to attempt to ensure full employment. This suggestion is not reasonable today but if we are going to engage in interventionary fiscal and monetary policy the potential to predict shortfalls in productivity and potentially consumer confidence can have meaningful implications for expansionary monetary policies being enacted. This is particularly useful if there are actual psychological ties between solar activity and consumer’s attitudes which sounds far fetched but may occur. Jevons also recommends less domestic reliance on crops would reduce the variation in economic prosperity. While crop production is still important in many arid and semi-arid lands, this is not as meaningful to the economy as it was when Jevons wrote.
Labels:
Business Cycle,
Christopher Scheiner,
Corn,
Galileo Galilei,
Herbert Stanley Jevons,
Market and Solar Activity,
Sunspot Cycle,
Sunspots,
Wheat,
William Stanley Jevons
Friday, February 17, 2017
Equal to the Ears and to One-Third of the Face | Da Vinci's Vitruvian Man
A palm is four fingers, a foot is four palms, a cubit is six palms, four cubits make a man, a pace is four cubits, a man is 24 palms. The length of the outspread arms is equal to the height of a man. From the hairline to the bottom of the chin is one-tenth of the height of a man. From below the chin to the top of the head is one-eighth of the height of a man. From above the chest to the top of the head is one-sixth of the height of a man. From above the chest to the hairline is one-seventh of the height of a man. The maximum width of the shoulders is a quarter of the height of a man. From the breasts to the top of the head is a quarter of the height of a man. The distance from the elbow to the tip of the hand is a quarter of the height of a man. The distance from the elbow to the armpit is one-eighth of the height of a man. The length of the hand is one-tenth of the height of a man. The root of the penis is at half the height of a man. The foot is one-seventh of the height of a man. From below the foot to below the knee is a quarter of the height of a man. From below the knee to the root of the penis is a quarter of the height of a man. The distances from below the chin to the nose and the eyebrows and the hairline are equal to the ears and to one-third of the face (HERE). |
The Harmony of Being | Geometry in Man, Nature, and Cosmos
and (c) the golden mean (Phi) proportion. |
Root proportions based on the square. |
By contemplating geometric proportions, an understanding towards the sacred truth can be obtained since geometric proportions are one of the definitive geometric qualities of life itself. The Holy Quran tells us that man has within himself all what is reflected in the universe - the best proportions. Man is the core of God’s creatures; he possesses the most harmonious proportions, reflecting of the Divine harmony of being. "We have indeed created man in best of forms" – proportions (Surah At-Tin, 95:4). Leonardo da Vinci illustrated the mathematical proportions of the human body, showing that human being exhibits clearly golden mean proportions in his body based on ratios of 1.618.The Vitruvian Man drawn by Leonardo Da Vinci is based on Vitruvius, who believed that if human proportions could be incorporated into buildings, they would become perfect in their geometry. According to Vitruvius, the distance from fingertip to fingertip should be the same as that from head to toe. The sacred mean rules can be seen in the ratios of body parts throughout the human body. The human body contains in its proportions all the important geometric geodesic measures and functions. The proportions of ideal man are at the center of a circle of invariant cosmic relationships.
Proportions of Venus’ and Earth’s mean orbits. |
Labels:
Astronomy,
Earth,
Islamic Patterns,
Johannes Kepler,
Leonardo da Vinci,
Leonardo Fibonacci,
Loai M. Dabbour,
Marcus Vitruvius Pollio,
Mercury,
OT,
Phi,
Plato,
Quran,
Sacred Geometry,
Sufism,
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