2026 Gold Forecast | Namzes

Back in February 2024, our main call was to watch for Gold to break the 2,080–2,100 level, which would trigger a trend move; it has since moved up over 2x. Short-term moves are hard to call and cycles are not stable, so I focus on mini-trend moves where I can hold a position for several months. We are now approaching a potential multi-month peak, which will be followed by a sizable pullback.

 

 Updates to the 2025 Gold Forecast.

The main idea for 2026 is a peak in Q1 around February, followed by a 20%+ decline toward mid-summer in July and a subsequent resumption of the bull market. 

  

 Peak in February. 20%+ decline through July. Bull market resumption.

 

In the chart above the composite projection is shown in orange, with seasonality displayed in the middle. The 18-month cycle in the bottom panel is due for a low between April and August; while this long cycle has wide dispersion, the best guess is that an initial low occurs in April with the final low in July. 

 

 

 

I found the three most similar cycles and displayed them in the chart above with a composite line in pink. While this is a small sample size, it serves as a decent reference point.

 

Reference:

Namzes (January 8, 2026) - 2026 Gold Forecast.

Gold Midterm Year Seasonal Pattern (1975-2024).

See also:

Namzes (January 11, 2025) - 2025 Gold Forecast. 

Namzes (December 31, 2025) - 2026 US Stock Market Forecast: 25% Bear Market and Recovery.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns. 

After Maduro, Might Makes Right | Alexander Dugin

What does the kidnapping of the president of a sovereign country mean? Like in the era of barbarian kingdoms, Maduro was brought in and paraded through the streets of New York like a captive enemy for the amusement of the crowd. Many note that this is reminiscent of Rome in its twilight years.

 » "Reshuffling of the deck" and global conflict. The world will never be the same again. «

 

[...] And what does all this mean? [...] International law no longer exists. Appealing to the UN, asking the West to pay attention to violations of certain principles, agreements, or provisions that contradict the letter and spirit of the law — all of this is now completely futile. 

 

[...] The idea that there are certain norms and rules that can be negotiated should be left in the past once and for all. There is no international law. There is only the law of force. In a sense, it has always been this way — this is nothing new. It’s just that, at certain times, after each "reshuffling of the deck" and global conflict, when spheres of influence are redistributed, the great powers assert their right to sovereignty.  

 

» International law is always a balance of power between the victors. « 

This was the case in the First and Second World Wars. When fascist Europe became a separate entity in world politics, it demanded that the world submit to it. The world rebelled, and that power is no more. But any international law is always a balance of power between the victors. That’s the point. For more than a century, nation-states have not been sovereign actors establishing world order; world relations are shaped by ideological blocs.

[...] Trump said nothing conceptually new, but he de facto scrapped the Yalta peace, the bipolar system, the UN, and even the very idea of globalization hitherto. His position is simple: "My interests are the interests of the world hegemon. Obey me." 

 

 » In the end, these infamous and lost thieves, like wretched fruit hanging from this tree... « 

The Miseries and Misfortunes of War by Jacques Callot, 1633.

 

In fact, humanity is now in a state of fundamental humiliation. Trump simply called a spade a spade. Globalists used to soften this humiliation by pretending to listen to your opinion and allowing you to participate in the process. Now that multilateralism is over, only the right of force remains, and this is an irreversible process. The world will never be the same again.

We are in the midst of a protracted, long-running Third World War, where international law simply does not exist. It will exist sometime in the future, based on the outcome of this conflict. [...] Trump is casting an arrogant challenge: "If you are winners, then win. Like me, for example. Where is your Zelensky?" 

 

 » If you are winners, then win. Where is your Zelensky? «

 

From this point of view, only when you parade Zelensky, the terrorist Malyuk, the terrorist Budanov, or Zaluzhny through Moscow in a cage, and the crowd of "Russian Romans," the inhabitants of the Third Rome, shout "shame, murderers" at them, only then will they talk to you. Perhaps on some holiday: Labor Day or Friendship of Peoples Day. Only then will we be accepted into the club of great powers. But for now, no. We are trying to convince Trump with documents that hundreds of Ukrainian drones wanted to destroy the Russian president, and the response we get is something like, "I don’t believe it. First, you set it up yourselves; second, it’s a pity it didn’t work out; and third, I know that we sent them so that your life wouldn’t be too sweet."

[...] We must defend ourselves in the war with the West, because that is where the initiative to revoke our right to sovereign policy comes from. It is time to abandon illusions about "Western partners" or "shared values." Trump is right to drop the mask of hypocrisy and nonsense about human rights: for him, America comes first. We are in a shootout: shoot or you will be killed. Trump did not even start World War III — he simply confirmed its existence.

» In this game without rules, Russia must win by any means necessary. «

 

[...] Only war decides everything — that’s the issue. And here the question of resources arises. Apparently, we are much better off with them than we thought: over four years of war, the people have demonstrated an incredible will for sovereignty. But now, in Ukraine, the question is not about the use of sovereignty, but about its acquisition. So far, it is not enough. Sovereignty is when you draw red lines and punish those who cross them. And when we demonstrate the Burevestnik, Poseidon, or Oreshnik, but nothing happens, it ceases to count in this world of shows and short cycles.

We have put everything at stake — the existence of Russia and our people — to prove our sovereignty. [...] In this game without rules, Russia must win by any means necessary. There are no taboo topics: we can abolish the Constitution, declare a state of emergency, do away with all conventions, and do whatever is necessary to survive. If we observe propriety and lose, it will not count in our favor. But if we succeed, no matter what, the victors will not be judged. Only the defeated are judged: if we slip up, they will hold a new Nuremberg trial over us.

» Tremble, nations, and submit, for God is with us. «  

 

This is the seriousness of 2026: it is a year of war and extraordinary measures. Peaceful life is being completely erased, like a wet rag wiping outdated formulas off a blackboard. Everything we counted on no longer works. We are in a cowboy saloon where a shootout is taking place without rules or regulations.

 

 [...] Now, thanks to Trump and his new doctrines, the situation has changed. Trump says, "I will conquer you all, I will shoot without warning." And look what he’s doing: he really is shooting. [...] We must act just like the strongest players — the West or Trump. Do as Trump does, but with completely different content, goals, and objectives. 

 

» There is no other way out. «

 

Methodologically, there is no other way out. China has achieved its goals through economics, but in a military confrontation, the question remains open: the Chinese are not the most warlike people, and there is a huge pro-Western elite there. We have not been able to compete economically, but our strengths are warrior bravery, courage, and faith. God is on our side: "Tremble, nations, and submit, for God is with us."

Quoted from:
Alexander Dugin (January 7, 2026) - After Maduro, Might Makes Right: Trump Sets the New Terms of Sovereignty.

 

 » The era of redrawing maps of influence. EU is "carefully monitoring." «

Went from scramble for Africa to scramble for Europe and Latin America real quick.

 

Neolib Zionist supremacist Jake Tapper (CNN host) and neocon Zionist supremacist Stephen Miller (Trump's

Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy), fighting over how to execute the takeover of Venezuela, January 5, 2026. 

January Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

January during midterm election years opens strong across the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. All of them typically peak around Wednesday, January 7, and fade some 3% heading into Monday, January 26.

January opens strong, then fades – weak into around the 26th.

  

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, January 7, 2026.

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

  

A historical pattern where the S&P 500's first five trading days of the year rising over 1%—as seen in 2026 with

a 1.1% gain—correlates with positive full-year returns 87.1% of the time since 1950, averaging 15.7% gains.

 

 S&P 500's Average Daily Return and  Percent of Days Positive, for every calendar date (1950-2025).

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns.

Marco Rubio and the Narco-Terrorist Elite | Maureen Tkacik

If you’re a little too online, you likely know that Marco Rubio as a teenager made extra cash working for his late brother-in-law Orlando Cicilia. The business imported and sold exotic animals as a front for moving nearly a half million pounds of cocaine and marijuana.

 

» What politician doesn't have a felon relative? «

Marco Rubio, south of the US border commonly known as "El Gusano" and "Narco Rubio." 

[...] Rubio has sworn he knew nothing about the drugs. He was only 16. (Admittedly, one of Cicilia's co-defendants had been only 16 when Tabraue had allegedly ordered him to murder his estranged wife to stop her from telling the feds what they'd done with the body of another guy they'd murdered the year earlier.) Not that it matters, of course: What politician doesn't have a felon relative? But for Rubio in particular, the connection seems too incongruous with his long-cultivated squeaky-cleanness. 

 

» Too incongruous with his long-cultivated squeaky-cleanness. «

[...] Today, Marco Rubio is the Trump administration's most formidable liar. When Pam Bondi or Pete Hegseth or Karoline Leavitt or Stephen Miller refers to an anti-genocide protester or a day laborer or a sandwich hurler or a fisherman clinging to the wreckage of a fishing boat that has just been struck by a Hellfire missile as a "terrorist," they come off as pathological. 

 

But Rubio's approval ratings are the highest in the Republican Party, even as he is the architect of what is arguably Trump’s single most cynical policy: the scheme to appoint drug cartel bosses and their cronies atop the governments of every Latin American country, in the name of fighting drug cartels.

In September, Rubio hailed Ecuadoran President Daniel Noboa, who leads a country whose homicide rate has risen eightfold since 2016, as an "incredibly willing partner" who "has done more just in the last couple years to take the fight to these narco-terrorists and these threats to the security and stability of Ecuador than any previous administration." Just five months earlier, a damning investigation revealed that Noboa’s family fruit business had trafficked 700 kilos of cocaine to Europe in banana crates between 2020 and 2022. 

 

Rubio has tirelessly promoted the cause of convicted (alas, just-pardoned) drug trafficker Juan Orlando Hernández. In 2018, Rubio personally and publicly commended Hernández, then president of Honduras, for combating drug traffickers (and supporting Israel), just seven months before his brother was indicted for trafficking 158 tons of cocaine in containers stamped "TH," for Tony Hernández.

 » Marco Rubio is the Trump administration's most formidable liar. «

 

Rubio has raved about the crime-fighting efforts of Salvadoran and Argentine junior strongmen Nayib Bukele and Javier Milei, in spite of the former’s documented alliance with MS-13 and the various Miami cocaine trafficking scandals that enveloped his libertarian political party last fall, as well as both leaders’ slavish devotion to the drug cartels' single favorite mode of money laundering.

 

Rubio has been one of the Beltway’s biggest backers of newly elected Chilean president José Antonio Kast, the son of a literal Nazi war criminal who has spent his entire political career lionizing, whitewashing, and promising a restoration of the brutal reign of Augusto Pinochet, who personally ordered the Chilean army to build a cocaine laboratory, consolidated the narcotics trade inside his terrifying secret police, and then allegedly "disappeared" key conspirators like his secret police chemist Eugenio Berríos.

And for at least a decade, Rubio has lauded, strategized with, and viciously condemned the multitude of criminal investigations into former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe, whom some describe as a kind of Kissingerian figure to the former Florida senator. 

 

A 1991 Pentagon analysis described Uribe, whom Rubio depicts as a kind of paradigmatic drug warrior, as one of the 100 most important Colombian narco-terrorists, a close personal friend of Pablo Escobar and a political figure "dedicated to collaboration with the Medellín [drug] cartel at high government levels."

» Álvaro Uribe [on the left, next to Pablo Escobar], whom some describe

as a kind of Kissingerian figure to the former Florida senator. «

That brings us to Rubio’s current campaign of state-sponsored terrorism against Venezuela and fisherman emanating from there, on the pretense that Nicolás Maduro runs something called the "Cartel of the Suns," which has flooded the United States with cheap cocaine. The case that this is anything but a fairy tale is laid out in a 2020 indictment whose insanity I hope to explore soon, but its flimsiness is also underscored by the puny vessels SOCOM has chosen to drone-strike into oblivion.
 

Last week, Berkeley professor emeritus Peter Dale Scott wrote a letter to The New York Times disputing the newspaper's characterization of "a remarkable dissonance" between Trump's simultaneous massacres of subsistence traffickers and pardoning of a convicted trafficker of more than 400 tons of cocaine. Actually, he pointed out, the "contradiction" was markedly unremarkable: "The ill-conceived and deliberately misnamed 'War on Drugs' has been a cover for contradictory CIA involvement with drug​-traffickers for decades." 

 

This is especially true in Venezuela, Scott noted. Customs Service investigators probing a 998-pound cocaine seizure in the country in 1990 discovered the Agency had been operating a joint venture with top military generals to traffic cocaine as a purported means of "infiltrating" Colombian cartels. The venture had been nicknamed "Cartel de los Soles," and the Times itself reported that it had successfully smuggled tons of cocaine into the United States with virtually no accountability until Hugo Chávez imprisoned the general who had spearheaded the cartel and expelled the DEA from Venezuela, at which point it became fashionable to finance industrial sabotage, military coups, and ultimately terror attack projects, under the premise that it was a "narco-state."

 

On December 1, 2025, Trump has officially pardoned former Honduran President, Juan Orlando Hernández, who 

US officials said was at the center of one of the largest and most violent drug-trafficking conspiracies in the world.

 

[...] Rubio returned to Miami and never left, any misgivings about his ties to a scary narcotics gang apparently negated by his conspicuous political talent. By the time he ran for city commissioner in the late '90s, Jeb Bush was donating to his campaign, as were a number of executives of the Fanjul sugar empire and a collection of eye doctors including (and likely corralled by) the ophthalmologist and onetime political fixer Alan Mendelsohn, who would later host the first fundraiser for Rubio's first presidential campaign exploratory committee. 

 

In one of the more "only in Miami" episodes of recent history, a midsized ship seized by the Coast Guard in the Pacific Ocean in 2001 turned out to have 12 tons of cocaine concealed inside its fuel tank, along with a cursory paper trail that led investigators to a Miami-based Ponzi scheme that was laundering drug cartel proceeds, whose ringleader had in turn funneled millions into Mendelsohn's various foundations and political action committees in a vain attempt to "fix" his legal problems.  

 

But where that scandal took down Rubio's close friend and sometime roommate David Rivera, who was elected to Congress in the 2010 election that sent Liddle Marco to the Senate, he emerged untainted. As one local political consultant told Rubio's biographer, "He was the anointed golden child, even then."

 

Quoted from:
Maureen Tkacik (December 23, 2025) - The Narco-Terrorist Elite: Why is Marco Rubio so hell-bent on making Iran-Contra again?

 

» The cartels are running Mexico. We have to do something. «

  » Colombia is run by a sick man. He's not going to be doing it for very long, it will be an operation by the US. «

» Now I hear that Iran is trying to build up again, and if they are, we're going to have
 to knock them down. We'll knock them down. We'll knock the hell out of them. « 
» We need Greenland. For defence reasons. «

Genocide Ziocon MIGA Don, January 3-4, 2026.

 

 See also:

Maureen Tkacik (August 27, 2025) - Foot Soldiers of the Trump Mafiacracy.
Maureen Tkacik (August 1, 2025) - Making America Epstein Again.

Helena Glass (January 4, 2025) - President Trump's End Game? South America. 

 Lu QiYuan (December 8, 2024) - Scott Bessent's Covert MAGA Strategy for Trump 2.0.