Largest Geomagnetic Disturbances during Solar Cycle 24

HERE & HERE & HERE

Yesterday 28 solar storm warnings were reported from satellites watching the sun - a very rare event in just one day (HERE). The most powerful solar storm of the current solar cycle is currently reverberating around the globe. Initially triggered by the impact of a coronal mass ejection (CME) hitting our planet’s magnetosphere, a relatively mild geomagnetic storm erupted at around 04:30 UT, but it has since ramped-up to an impressive G4-class geomagnetic storm, priming high latitudes for some bright auroral displays. Further significant flare activity from Region 2297 is to be expected until it rotates off the visible disk on March 19th. This already caused the largest geomagnetic disturbances during the current solar cycle. 

Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market, a 2003 study of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, notes the following: Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week’s stock returns for all US stock market indices.  

When a solar flare or CME happens, it can take up to 2 days to impact the earth. Therefore, two days after a large solar flare we should see a drop in the stock market values for that day. More on the impact of such events on the financial markets and trading see also HERE.

SPX vs Mercury

2014-11-01 (Sat) = MER max Elong W 18.7°

2014-12-08 (Mon) = MER 000 SUN

2015-01-14 (Wed) = MER max Elong E 18.9°

2015-01-30 (Fri) = MER 000 SUN

2015-02-24 (Tue) = MER max Elong W 26.8°

2015-04-09 (Thu) = MER 000 SUN

2015-05-06 (Wed) = MER max Elong E 21.2°

2015-05-30 (Sat) = MER 000 SUN

2015-06-24 (Wed) = MER max Elong W 22.5°

2015-07-23 (Thu) = MER 000 SUN

2015-09-04 (Fri) = MER max Elong E 27.1°

2015-09-30 (Wed) = MER 000 SUN

2015-10-15 (Thu) = MER max Elong W 18.1°

2015-11-17 (Tue) = MER 000 SUN

2015-12-28 (Mon) = MER max Elong E 19.7°

2016-01-14 (Thu) = MER 000 SUN

2016-02-06 (Sat) = MER max Elong W 25.6°

Peaks in S&P 500 = 4.94% above 125 SMA

Reference: www.trendsby3.blogspot.com

SPX vs IMF

[...] I have determined the major and minor time factors which repeat in the history of nations, men and markets [...] In making my predictions I use geometry and mathematics, just as the astronomer does, based on immutable laws.

[...] My calculations are based on the cycle theory and on mathematical sequences. History repeats itself. That is what I have always contended, that in order to know and predict the future of anything you only have to look up what has happened in the past and get a correct base or starting point.

[...] In making my calculations on the stock market, or any future event, I get the past history and find out what cycle we are in and then predict the curve for the future, which is a repetition of past market movements [...] harmonic analysis, is the only thing that we can rely upon to ascertain the future.

W.D. Gann (1927): The Tunnel Thru The Air

SoLunar Map for February - March 2015

Usually a HIGH in this SoLunar Map is a LOW in the Stock Market and vice versa.
However, inversions occur.
Look back for clues at previous turns and what happended in the market 118 CD [= 4 lunar months],
354 CD [= 1 lunar year] and 1,416 CD [= 4 lunar years] ago.

Upcoming turn-days are:
Feb 07 (Sat), Feb 11 (Wed), Feb 15 (Sun), Feb 18 (Wed), Feb 22 (Sun), Feb 26 (Thu), Mar 02 (Mon),
Mar 05 (Thu), Mar 09 (Mon), Mar 13 (Fri), Mar 16 (Mon), Mar 20 (Fri), Mar 23 (Mon), Mar 27 (Fri), Mar 31 (Tue), Apr 04 (Sat).

See also HERE

SPX vs SoLunar Map (Sep 2014 - Jan 2015)

SPX 2015 vs 2007 (Similarity = 93%) and Turbo Cycles Composite Forecast

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.
For the methodology see HERE and HERE

60 Year Cycle in SPX (Similarity = 92%)

Correlation of last 250 trading days with the SPX from Sep. 1954 to Sep. 1955.
Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution. For the methodology see HERE

Source: Gann Global Financial, January 2015.

W.D. Gann (1936): Master Time Factor and Forecasting by Mathematical Rules, p. 218. See also HERE

Panic in the stockmarkets in fall 2015? See also HERE

Crude Oil breaking below 17-Year Support

Source: Chart of the Day

On January 7 the price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was a mere USD 48. The long-term trend of West Texas Intermediate crude that has largely traded within the confines of an upward sloping trend channel since the late 1990s. However, with the dramatic 55% plunge that began back in mid-2014, crude oil has now clearly broken below support (green line) of its 17-year trend channel - a significant turn of events (see chart at left).

Raj Times and Cycles pointed to a 50 Month Cycle due in June 2015, and the bias would be a Low and the Apex of the 2 year Triangle due in February 2016, which should be a major change in trend (see chart below). 

However, after a possible bounce back to USD 70, geopolitical circumstances could drive prices for WTI further down during the next two years to test the 2008 low at around USD 30 or even the 1998 low at around USD 10.

Source: Raj Times and Cycles

Plummeting Brent oil prices are putting pressure not only on Russia, Iran, Nigeria or Venezuela but also on North American shale, which has sunk hundreds of billions of dollars into investment, and could soon come crashing down.Tempted by big returns, shale companies have borrowed more than $200 billion in bonds and loans, from Wall Street and London, to cover development and projects that may not even come to fruition. Oil producers' debt since 2010 has increased more than 55 percent, and revenues have slowed, rising only 36 percent from September 2014, compared to 2010, according to the Wall Street Journal. Analysts believe North American shale needs to sell at USD 60-100 per barrel to break even on the billions of debt accrued by the energy companies. Indebted companies, fearing bankruptcy, may therefore be forced to keep selling oil, even at a loss (Source: WSJ).

DJIA 2014 vs 1997

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.
For the methodology see HERE

www.sentimentrader.com

The Stock Trader's Almanac Blog presented December’s typical seasonal pattern pointing to a bottom in stocks this week, possibly Monday, followed by a strong up day and then a nice rally.

www.stocktradersalmanac.com

Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for DJIA | Tom McClellan

Tom McClellan - Chart In Focus (December 11, 2014)

Tom McClellan recently presented a 10-year leading indication relationship between oil prices and the stock market, as shown in the above chart. The current oil price slide says that sometime around 2024 some type of “echo” in stock prices from this year’s oil price drop can be expected. 

Stock prices echoing oil price movements with a 10-year lag has “worked” for over 100 years and there is enough evidence to accept it, even if we cannot explain it. For now, the message of this leading indication is that the oil price rally from 1998 to 2008 has yet to see the full extent of its echo during the 2009-2018 period. While the current dip in oil prices is going to be bad for stock prices about 10 years from now, it is not really a problem for stock prices in real time. 

The following chart zooms into this correlation between the S&P500 and the Crude Oil Price shifted 10 years into the future and suggests the S&P500 would continue moving down next week, then up into end of December before forming a major low around January 6. Another rally into early July - with a correction from around March 20 to April 24 - should follow.

SPX 28 Trading Days Above 5 DMA - Longterm Bullish?

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices 2015

This astro-forecasting tool was developed by Donald Bradley and published in 1947 in a booklet titled “Stock Market Prediction“. On the book-cover Bradley coined his tool the ‘Planetary Barometer’ and inside the book the ‘Siderograph’. Today it is simply called the ‘Bradley Index’. 

There are two versions of the index, a geocentric and a heliocentric one. Both attempt to forecast major and minor changes in the trend in stock markets indices. The Bradley Indices do not forecast highs or lows. Simply changes in the trend or “non-directional turning-points“. Donald Bradley wrote: 

“[...] There are many [other] cycles affecting man with causes outside our immediate world. Well known among these is the electromagnetic cycle in biology which is caused by the relationship of the sun and the moon. Even tadpoles are seriously affected by this soli-lunar cycle which incidentially proves the wisdom of the oft-ridiculed practice of planting under various circumstances of the moon in the sky. What stimulates and pacifies the pollywog stimulates and pacifies the human being periodically.“

“[...] At no time must the reader gain the impression that a Siderograph, as such, is a prediction of what the stock market will actually do. Nevertheless, observation proves that basic reversals in collective attitudes, clearly predicted by the line, are inevitably mirrored in stock averages.“

(See also HERE)

[Eastern Standard Time (EST) -0500 UTC] 

Geocentric Bradley Index 2015
2014-11-20 (Thu) = Major Low

2014-12-09 (Tue) = High

2014-12-26 (Fri) = Low

2015-02-16 (Mon) = @ 0

2015-03-06 (Fri) = High

2015-03-11 (Wed) = Low

2015-04-03 (Fri) = High

2015-04-14 (Tue) = Low

2015-04-25 (Sat) = High

2015-05-04 (Mon) = Low

2015-05-10 (Sun) = High

2015-05-22 (Fri) = Low

2015-06-09 (Tue) = Major High

2015-06-20 (Sat) = Low

2015-06-28 (Sun) = High

2015-07-16 (Thu) = Low

2015-07-23 (Thu) = High

2015-07-29 (Wed) = Low

2015-08-03 (Mon) = High

2015-08-27 (Thu) = Low

2015-09-05 (Sat) = High

2015-10-01 (Thu) = @ 0

2015-10-09 (Fri) = Low

2015-10-26 (Mon) = @ 0

2015-11-08 (Sun) = High

2015-11-16 (Mon) = @ 0

2015-11-25 (Wed) = Low

2015-12-11 (Fri) = High

2015-12-20 (Sun) = Low

2015-12-25 (Fri) = High

2016-01-06 (Wed) = Low

2016-01-13 (Wed) = High

2016-01-18 (Mon) = Low

 

Heliocentric Bradley Index 2015

2014-11-22 (Sat) = Major Low     

2014-12-09 (Tue) = High   

2014-12-26 (Fri) = Low     

2015-02-10 (Tue) = @ 0

2015-03-04 (Wed) = High  

2015-03-12 (Thu) = Low    

2015-04-03 (Fri) = High     

2015-04-12 (Sun) = Low    

2015-04-24 (Fri) = High     

2015-05-04 (Mon) = Low   

2015-05-11 (Mon) = High  

2015-05-20 (Wed) = Low   

2015-06-09 (Tue) = Major High   

2015-06-21 (Sun) = Low    

2015-06-27 (Sat) = High    

2015-07-17 (Fri) = Low     

2015-07-21 (Tue) = High   

2015-07-30 (Thu) = Low    

2015-08-03 (Mon) = High  

2015-08-23 (Sun) = Low    

2015-09-03 (Thu) = High   

2015-09-24 (Thu) = Low    

2015-09-29 (Tue) = High   

2015-10-08 (Thu) = Low    

2015-11-06 (Fri) = High

2015-11-17 (Tue) = @ 0     

2015-12-07 (Mon) = Low   

2015-12-12 (Sat) = High    

2016-01-04 (Mon) = Low   

2016-01-13 (Wed) = High  

2016-01-19 (Tue) = Low    

 

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices 2015

2014-11-20 (Thu) = Major Low (geo)

2014-11-22 (Sat) = Major Low (helio)   

2014-12-09 (Tue) = High (geo + helio)   

2014-12-26 (Fri) = Low (geo + helio)     

2015-02-10 (Tue) = @ 0 (helio)

2015-02-16 (Mon) = @ 0 (geo)

2015-03-04 (Wed) = High (helio)

2015-03-06 (Fri) = High (geo)

2015-03-11 (Wed) = Low (geo)

2015-03-12 (Thu) = Low (helio)   

2015-04-03 (Fri) = High (geo + helio)    

2015-04-12 (Sun) = Low (helio)   

2015-04-14 (Tue) = Low (geo)

2015-04-24 (Fri) = High (helio)    

2015-04-25 (Sat) = High (geo)

2015-05-04 (Mon) = Low (geo + helio)  

2015-05-10 (Sun) = High (geo)

2015-05-11 (Mon) = High (helio)

2015-05-20 (Wed) = Low (helio)  

2015-05-22 (Fri) = Low (geo)

2015-06-09 (Tue) = Major High (geo + helio)   

2015-06-20 (Sat) = Low (geo)

2015-06-21 (Sun) = Low (helio)   

2015-06-27 (Sat) = High (helio)   

2015-06-28 (Sun) = High (geo)

2015-07-16 (Thu) = Low (geo)

2015-07-17 (Fri) = Low (helio)    

2015-07-21 (Tue) = High (helio)  

2015-07-23 (Thu) = High (geo)

2015-07-29 (Wed) = Low (geo)

2015-07-30 (Thu) = Low (helio)   

2015-08-03 (Mon) = High (geo + helio)  

2015-08-23 (Sun) = Low (helio)   

2015-08-27 (Thu) = Low (geo)

2015-09-03 (Thu) = High (helio)  

2015-09-05 (Sat) = High (geo)

2015-09-24 (Thu) = Low (helio)   

2015-09-29 (Tue) = High (helio)  

2015-10-01 (Thu) = @ 0 (geo)

2015-10-08 (Thu) = Low (helio)   

2015-10-09 (Fri) = Low (geo)

2015-10-26 (Mon) = @ 0 (geo)

2015-11-06 (Fri) = High (helio)

2015-11-08 (Sun) = High (geo)

2015-11-16 (Mon) = @ 0 (geo)

2015-11-17 (Tue) = @ 0 (helio)    

2015-11-25 (Wed) = Low (geo)

2015-12-07 (Mon) = Low (helio)  

2015-12-11 (Fri) = High (geo)

2015-12-12 (Sat) = High (helio)   

2015-12-20 (Sun) = Low (geo)

2015-12-25 (Fri) = High (geo)

2016-01-04 (Mon) = Low (helio)  

2016-01-06 (Wed) = Low (geo)

2016-01-13 (Wed) = High (geo + helio)  

2016-01-18 (Mon) = Low (geo)

2016-01-19 (Tue) = Low (helio)

2015 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA

HERE & HERE

Lance Roberts @ www.streettalklive.com

TheChartStore.com

Since 1834 the U.S.-stock market has been positive 12 out of 18 times in the 4th year of every decade and the 5th year was by far the best year of the Decennial Pattern. The Dow Jones Industrial Average started in 1895 and since then 11 of the last 12 5th years were up and averaged a return of almost 22%. The exception from the pattern was 2005 when the DJIA lost 0.61%.

Time-Price-Projections for a Major Low in Stocks

Credits: Jeff Hirsch - StockTradersAlmanac.com

The Birth of BABA

HERE

On September 19 the China-based e-commerce giant Alibaba performed the largest IPO in U.S. history: 

Alibaba (symbol:BABA) was collecting $ 21.8 billion - more than Google, Facebook, and Twitter combined (HERE). 

HERE

Alibaba's consumer-to-consumer portal Taobao, similar to eBay.com, features nearly a billion products and is one of the 20 most-visited websites globally. The Group's websites accounted for over 60% of the parcels delivered in China by March 2013, and 80% of the nation's online sales by September 2014. Alipay, an online payment escrow service, accounts for roughly half of all online payment transactions within China. 

After some delays matching the huge volume of buy and sell orders, the first trade of Alibaba took place at 11.54 a.m. (HERE).

HERE

HERE

HERE

July 12, 2014 = Mercury’s Maximum Western Elongation + SuperMoon

Of all the planets Mercury is the smallest and closest to the Sun, and has a fast orbital period of 88 Earth days on average. Despite the small size and the slow 59-day-long rotation, Mercury has a significant magnetic field, strong enough to deflect the solar wind and to create a magnetosphere that can trap solar wind plasma. Mercury was a Roman god who travelled between the worlds of gods, humans and the dead. In astrology Mercury is generally associated with mental activities and faculties of the mind, and in astrofinance Mercury is the planet of trading, commerce, and intellect. However, seen from Earth, Mercury’s orbit around the Sun is 116 days on average (+/- 32 days). Also seen from Earth, it reaches a maximum Eastern and a maximum western elongation. These moments frequently coincide with a changes in trend in financial markets (see also HERE). 

On July 12, 2014 Mercury will reach the maximum western elongation on its orbit (HERE). On the same day there will be a SuperMoon (HERE) making a series of aspects to Pluto, Uranus, Saturn, Mars and Jupiter between July 11-12. This should have at least some short-term impact on the financial markets. On July 15 (Tue) both the geocentric and heliocentric Bradley Indices are at their highs of the year 2014 (HERE). Saturn is the Lord of Karma, and after 150 days of retrograde motion, will station direct on July 20 (Sun). Uranus is the Lord of the unpredictable, revolution, and progression and will turn retrograde the next day, July 21 (Mon). Ray Merriman remarks on this period: "Equity markets are prone to upheavals during such bouts of cosmic thunder."

VIX nearing the 2006 Low