The Wash-Rinse-Repeat Cycle

Financial Sense - Chris Puplava 11/02/2012: The leading tendency of the performance for early to late-stage cyclicals relative to the performance of the stock market suggests that the stock market rallies post the election and does well in the first part of the year [2013] but then we see a selloff heading into the summer before we bottom. Looks like the “Wash-Rinse-Repeat Cycle Strikes Again” for a fourth year! 

If we do run into late Q1 to early Q2 weakness in the economy in 2013 we are likely to begin seeing the early fingerprints of that in the stock market beginning now where the stock market rallies into the end of the year on weaker breadth and momentum.

Conjure away Debt

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard- 21 Oct 2012: ... A paper by the International Monetary Fund claims that one could eliminate the net public debt of the US at a stroke, and by implication do the same for Britain, Germany, Italy, or Japan. ... The conjuring trick is to replace our system of private bank-created money - roughly 97% of the money supply - with state-created money. ... If lenders are forced to put up 100% reserve backing for deposits, they lose the exorbitant privilege of creating money out of thin air. The nation regains sovereign control over the money supply. ... The IMF study came out in August and has begun to acquire a cult following around the world. Entitled "The Chicago Plan Revisited", it revives the scheme first put forward by professors Henry Simons and Irving Fisher in 1936 during the ferment of creative thinking in the late Depression. Read all HERE and watch THIS

Update - S&P 500 vs Commercial's Net Positions in Eurodollars 1 Year Ago

Tom McClellan discovered that commercial traders' net positions in Eurodollar futures shifted one year into the future are very likely to forecast the direction of the US stock markets (HERE).  CITs are (+/- 3 TD * ):

10/18/2012 high
11/08/2012 low
11/29/2012 high
12/13/2012 low
01/03/2013 high
02/14/2013 low

* COT-data  is  taken  from  the  close  of business  on  Tuesday  and  then released on the following Friday at 3:30 PM ET for futures only. It is also released twice a month or every other Monday for futures combined with the figures for options.

SPX vs George Bayer's Rule #7 - Venus at Perihelium

THE EFFECT OF PERIHELIUM OF MARS AND VENUS

... Perihelium means the point where a planet is nearest to the Sun.
... I have discovered that whenever one of these two planets pass its Perihelium in geocentric longitude (also over the Aphelium), we get changes in Wheat of a few days duration ...

[George Bayer (1940): Stock and Commodity Traders´ Hand-Book of Trend Determination. Carmel, California; p. 16]

10.04.2009  00:27 SU    VEN distance to SUN @ MIN
05.16.2010  18:57 SU    VEN distance to SUN @ MIN
12.27.2010  11:52 MO    VEN distance to SUN @ MIN
08.09.2011  04:53 TU    VEN distance to SUN @ MIN
03.20.2012  21:07 TU    VEN distance to SUN @ MIN
10.31.2012  16:60 WD    VEN distance to SUN @ MIN
06.13.2013  10:03 TH    VEN distance to SUN @ MIN
01.23.2014  20:52 TH    VEN distance to SUN @ MIN
09.05.2014  11:45 FR    VEN distance to SUN @ MIN
04.18.2015  05:23 SA    VEN distance to SUN @ MIN
11.29.2015  04:00 SU    VEN distance to SUN @ MIN
07.10.2016  21:53 SU    VEN distance to SUN @ MIN
02.20.2017  12:00 MO    VEN distance to SUN @ MIN 


Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

Delta-Projection - Tides - Astro-Events (Nov 1 - Feb 1)

See also HERE

Tidal CITs
2012-10-27 (Sat)
2012-11-06-07 (Tue-Wed)
2012-11-14 (Wed)
2012-11-20-22 (Tue-Thu)
2012-11-25 (Sun)
2012-11-30 (Fri)
2012-12-06-07 (Thu-Fri)
2012-12-13-14 (Thu-Fri)
2012-12-21-23 (Fri-Sun)
2013-01-01-03 (Tue-Thu)
2013-01-06-07 (Sun-Mon)
2013-01-12-13 (Sat-Sun)
2013-01-20-21 (Sun-Mon)
2013-01-30-31 (Wed-Thu) 

Delta Points since major low on June 4  (ITD - MTD - LTD - SLTD - XXLTD) 

2012-06-04 (Mon) =  ITD #3 LOW  = MTD #12 = LTD #8 = SLTD #4

2012-06-11 (Mon) =  ITD #4 HIGH

2012-06-12 (Tue) =  ITD #5 LOW

2012-06-20 (Wed) =  ITD #a HIGH 

2012-06-25 (Mon) =  ITD #b LOW

2012-07-06 (Fri) =  ITD #6 HIGH = MTD #1

2012-07-12 (Wed) =  ITD #7 LOW = MTD #2

2012-07-19 (Thu) =  ITD #c HIGH 

2012-07-24 (Thu) =  ITD #d LOW

2012-07-30 (Mon) =  ITD #8 HIGH 

2012-08-02 (Thu) =  ITD #9 LOW 

2012-08-08 (Wed) =  ITD #10 HIGH 

2012-08-11 (Wed) =  ITD #11 LOW

2012-08-21 (Tue) =  ITD #(11) HIGH = MTD #3

2012-09-04 (Tue) =  ITD #1 LOW = MTD #4

2012-09-14 (Fri) + 2012-09-21 (Fri) =  ITD #2 HIGH = MTD #5 = LTD #9 = SLTD #5 =
XXLTD #16

2012-09-26 (Wed) =  ITD #3 LOW

2012-10-05 (Fri) =  ITD #4 HIGH 

2012-10-12 (Fri) =  ITD #5 LOW

2012-10-18 (Fri) =  ITD #a HIGH 

2012-10-24 (Wed) =  ITD #b LOW 

Delta Projection 
2012-10-31 (Wed) =  ITD #6 HIGH 

2012-11-07 (Wed) =  ITD #7 LOW = MTD #6 ? = LTD #10 ? 

2012-11-14 (Wed) =  ITD #c HIGH 

2012-11-20 (Tue) =  ITD #d LOW

2012-11-26 (Mon) =  ITD #8 HIGH = MTD #7 ? = LTD #11

2012-11-28 (Wed) =  ITD #9 LOW 

2012-12-03 (Mon) =  ITD #10 HIGH

2012-12-13 (Thu) =  ITD #11 LOW 

2012-12-17 (Mon) =  ITD #(11) HIGH

        = start of INVERSION ZONE into ITD #3 January 21st

2013-01-02 (Wed) = ITD #1 (HIGH ?)

2013-01-09 (Wed) = ITD #x (LOW ?)
2013-01-11 (Fri) or 2013-01-17 (Thu) = ITD #2 (HIGH ? )
2013-01-21 (Mon) = ITD #3 (LOW ?)
2013-01-31 (Thu) = ITD #4 (HIGH ?)

Summary: Delta - Tides - Astro-Events

George Bayer-Rules, Miles Wilson Walker's SuperTiming CITs (MWW-CIT) & Ray Merriman's Cosmic Turn-Signatures (Level 1 = major CIT / Level 2 = intermediate CIT / Level 3 = shortterm CIT) 

2012-10-29 14:49 (Mon) = Full Moon

Market Closure due to Hurricane Sandy

 

2012-10-31 (Wed) =  ITD #6 HIGH 

2012-10-31 (Wed) = Bradley CIT [geo]
2012-10-31 15:51 (Wed) = VEN @ Perihelium [Bayer Rule 07]
2012-11-01 (Thu) = VEN 180° URA = Level 2
2012-11-01 10:09 (Thu) = Moon @ Apogee
2012-11-03 (Sat) = Bradley CIT [helio]
2012-11-03 (Sat) = VEN 90° PLU = Level 1
2012-11-06 17:39 (Tue) = MER (R) [Bayer Rule 01]

2012-11-07 (Wed) =  ITD #7 LOW = MTD #6 ? = LTD #10 ? 

2012-11-06 19:36 (Tue) = Third Quarter = Tidal CIT
2012-11-07 (Wed) = MER @ 358° [helio] = MWW-CIT
2012-11-07 00:00 (Wed) = MER-MAR speed dif 00°59’ [Bayer Rule 02]

2012-11-09 (Fri) = VEN 120° JUP = Level 2
2012-11-10 (Sat) = NEP (D)
2012-11-12 (Mon) = MAR 0° Galactic Center
2012-11-12 09:33 (Mon) = MER speed @ 00°59’ [Bayer Rule 27]

2012-11-14 (Wed) =  ITD c HIGH 

2012-11-14 (Wed) = Tidal CIT
2012-11-14 05:22 (Wed) = Moon @ Perigee
2012-11-13 17:08 (Tue) = New Moon = SuperMoon [new] = Solar Eclipse
2012-11-13 (Tue) = Bradley CIT [geo]

2012-11-17 06:21 (Sat) = MER @ halfway retrograde place [Bayer Rule 44]
2012-11-17 10:39 (Sat) = MER (R) conjunct SUN [Bayer Rule 22]

2012-11-20 (Tue) =  ITD d LOW
2012-11-20 09:31 (Tue) = First Quarter = Tidal CIT
2012-11-20 22:42 (Tue) = MER speed @ 00°59’ [Bayer Rule 27]
2012-11-22 (Thu) = SUN 90° NEP = Level 1
2012-11-22 (Thu) = VEN 120° NEP = Level 3
2012-11-22 (Thu) = MER @ 88° [helio] = MWW-CIT
2012-11-22 00:00 (Thu) = VEN helio Lat Max @ 3°23' [Bayer Rule 15]

2012-11-23 (Fri) = MAR 90° URA = Level 1

2012-11-26 (Mon) =  ITD #8 HIGH = MTD #7 ?  = LTD #11 ?

2012-11-25 (Sun) = Tidal CIT
2012-11-25 (Sun) = Bradley CIT [helio]
2012-11-25 00:00 (Sun) = MER-MAR speed dif 00°59’ [Bayer Rule 02]
2012-11-26 (Mon) = SUN 120° URA = Level 1
2012-11-26 (Mon) = MER (D)
2012-11-26 (Mon) = VEN 0° SAT = Level 2
2012-11-26 17:54 (Mon) = MER (D) [Bayer Rule 01]
2012-11-27 (Tue) = MAR 0° PLU  = Level 2

2012-11-28 (Wed) =  ITD #9 LOW 

2012-11-28 09:33 (Wed) = Full Moon = Lunar Eclipse
2012-11-28 14:35 (Wed) = Moon @ Apogee

2012-11-30 (Fri) = Tidal CIT

2012-12-03 (Mon) =  ITD #10 HIGH

2012-12-03 22:57 (Mon) = MER speed @ 00°59’ [Bayer Rule 27]

2012-12-06 10:31 (Thu) = Third Quarter 2012-12-06-07 (Thu-Fri) = Tidal CIT
2012-12-09 (Sun) = MER @ 178° [helio] = MWW-CIT

2012-12-13 (Thu) =  ITD #11 LOW 

2012-12-13 (Thu) = Tidal CIT
2012-12-13 08:42 (Thu) = New Moon = SuperMoon [new]
2012-12-13 (Thu) = URA [D]
2012-12-12 18:13 (Wed) = Moon @ Perigee

2012-12-17 (Mon) =  ITD #(11) HIGH

2012-12-17 (Mon) = Bradley CIT [helio]
2012-12-17 (Mon) = MER 180° JUP = MWW-CIT
2012-12-17 (Mon) =  ITD #(11) HIGH = MTD #7 ?   
2012-12-16 (Sun) = VEN 90° NEP = Level 3

2012-12-18 (Tue) = SUN 0° Galactic Center
2012-12-19 (Wed) = VEN 120° URA = Level 2
2012-12-20 00:19 (Thu) = First Quarter
2012-12-21 (Fri) = Tidal CIT
2012-12-21 (Fri) = Bradley CIT [geo]
2012-12-21 (Fri) = Winter Solstice
2012-12-22 (Sat) = VEN 180° JUP = Level 2

2012-12-25 (Tue) = SUN 90° URA = Level 1
2012-12-25 16:55 (Tue) = Moon @ Apogee
2012-12-27 (Thu) = Bradley CIT [geo]
2012-12-28 (Fri) = Bradley CIT [geo]
2012-12-28 05:21 (Fri) = Full Moon
2012-12-29 (Sat) = MER 0° Galactic Center
2012-12-30 (Sun) = SUN 0° PLU = Level 3
2012-12-31 (Mon) = Bradley CIT [geo]

2013-01-02 (Wed) =  ITD #1 (HIGH ?)

2013-01-02 (Wed) = Tidal CIT
2013-01-02 (Wed) = Earth @ Perihelion
2013-01-03 (Thu) = Bradley CIT [helio]
2013-01-04 (Fri) = Bradley CIT [geo]
2013-01-04 (Fri) = MAR 120° JUP = Level 2
2013-01-04 22:58 (Fri) = Third Quarter

2013-01-06 (Sun) = VEN 0° Galactic Center
2013-01-06-07 (Sun-Mon) = Tidal CIT
2013-01-07 (Mon) = MAR 90° SAT = Level 1
2013-01-07 (Mon) = MER @ 268° [helio] = MWW-CIT

2013-01-09 (Wed) =  ITD x (LOW ?)

2013-01-11 (Fri) or 2013-01-17 (Thu) = ITD #2 (HIGH ? )

2013-01-10 05:26 (Thu) = Moon @ Perigee
2013-01-11 (Fri) = VEN 120° URA [helio] = MWW-CIT
2013-01-11 14:44 (Fri) = New Moon
2013-01-12 (Sat) = VEN 90° URA = Level 2
2013-01-12-13 (Sat-Sun) = Tidal CIT

 
2013-01-13 (Sun) = Bradley CIT [helio]
2013-01-16 (Wed) = MER par VEN = MWW-CIT
2013-01-16 (Wed) = VEN 0° PLU = Level 1
2013-01-18 03:35 (Fri) = MER (R) conjunct SUN [Bayer Rule 22]
2013-01-18 18:45 (Fri) = First Quarter
2013-01-20 (Sun) = Bradley CIT [geo]
2013-01-20 (Sun) = Bradley CIT [helio]

2013-01-21 (Mon) =  ITD #3 (LOW ?)

2013-01-21 (Sun-Mon) = Tidal CIT
2013-01-22 06:03 (Tue) = Moon @ Apogee

2013-01-24 03:53 (Thu) = MAR @ Perihelium [Bayer Rule 07]
2013-01-25 (Fri) = SUN 120°JUP = MWW-CIT
2013-01-26 23:38 (Sat) = Full Moon
2013-01-28 (Mon) = Bradley CIT [helio]
2013-01-29 (Tue) = Bradley CIT [geo]
2013-01-30 (Wed) = JUP (D)
2013-01-30 (Wed) = SUN 90° SAT = Level 2

2013-01-31 (Thu) =  ITD #4 (HIGH ?)

2013-01-31 (Thu) = Tidal CIT
2013-01-31 11:22 (Thu) = MER @ halfway retrograde place [Bayer Rule 44]
2013-02-03 08:56 (Sun) = Third Quarter

SPX vs MA1 shifted +130 TD

SPX vs Planet’s Declinations out of Bound

Planet’s declinations exceeding the extremes of the Sun's declination (= ± 23.27⁰ geocentric or ±7.15⁰ heliocentric) often correlates with short term market turns.  

Mars went beyond - 23.27⁰ on October 26 (Fri), and Mercury will follow on November 6 (Sun). 

Mars' Declination out of Bound 
02.13.2010 SA - 03.15.2010 MO
11.19.2010 FR - 12.29.2010 WD
07.24.2011 SU - 08.22.2011 MO
10.26.2012 FR - 12.10.2012 MO
06.29.2013 SA - 08.03.2013 SA
09.29.2014 MO - 11.21.2014 FR
06.07.2015 SU - 07.17.2015 FR

Venus Declination out of Bound 
05.06.2010 TH - 06.08.2010 TU
11.14.2011 MO - 12.14.2011 WD
04.03.2012 TU - 06.04.2012 MO
05.24.2013 FR - 06.19.2013 WD
10.11.2013 FR - 12.07.2013 SA
12.02.2014 TU - 12.25.2014 TH
04.18.2015 SA - 06.02.2015 TU

Mercury's Declination out of Bound 
06.22.2010 TU - 07.06.2010 TU
11.14.2010 SU - 12.13.2010 MO
06.11.2011 SA - 06.28.2011 TU
11.06.2011 SU - 11.29.2011 TU
01.08.2012 SU - 01.21.2012 SA
05.31.2012 TH - 06.20.2012 WD
11.01.2012 TH - 11.07.2012 WD
12.27.2012 TH - 01.15.2013 TU
05.21.2013 TU - 06.13.2013 TH
12.17.2013 TU - 01.08.2014 WD
05.11.2014 SU - 06.05.2014 TH
12.07.2014 SU - 01.01.2015 TH

(Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution). 

STD Red Week (Oct 29 - Nov 2)

www.chartsedge.com

While the S&P 500 futures continue to test support at 1400, Wallstreet's floor markets will be closed on Monday as New York braces for Hurricane Sandy. 

However,  STD Red Weeks are usually trenders from Tuesday a.m. to Friday a.m., that is: Monday and Friday usually reverse the Tuesday - Thursday trend. 

We expect a short term high around Full Moon (that is inverted to Mike Korell's forecast). If the typical Red-Week Pattern plays out, the low of the week should print by Thursday p.m. - Friday a.m., and will be followed by another decline with lower-lows into the Election-Week. As outlined earlier, the ITD suggests the high (some Elliott-Wave #4 or #2) could be reached as early as Tuesday-Wednesday (HERE).

This week includes the last 3 trading days of October and the first 2 trading days of November during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle, and the bias of the S&P 500 in the Election Year Seasonal Chart is up. 

STD Blue Week - Update

For the week we expect some sort of a W-shape:

Monday (Oct 22) morning = High 
afternoon = Low
close = High of the Day
Tuesday (Oct 23) morning into noon = retest of Low, then up into the close 
Wednesday (Oct 24) = up 

Thursday (Oct 25) morning = High
Thursday (Oct 25) afternoon = retest of Lows, turn up into end of week

STD Blue Week (October 22 - 26)

STD Blue Days are usually choppy and tricky to trade. Statistically look back, STD Blue Days and STD Blue Weeks are M-shaped or W-shaped, and the loss-trades are above average. STD Red and Green days and weeks are much better for trends to work.

Monday - Tuesday, October 22-23, may turn out to be similar or inverse to Thursday - Friday of last week. Assuming there was no inversion on the STD-red day (Sunday, Oct 21), a ST-high on Monday, followed by another swing down into late Tuesday is likely. Also consider with past Blue Week patterns, especially 4 weeks back, 4 lunar months back, and 1 lunar year back.

www.chartsedge.com

As outlined HERE, the ITD #b Low is scheduled to develop around Oct 21-23, and should be followed by a rally into the ITD #6 High around Oct 29 = Full Moon.  

This forecast also matches Mike Korrell's latest projection (HERE), but contradicts the view of Francis Bussiere: ST high on Oct 24, down into Full Moon (HERE).

www.astrocycle.net

The McClellan Oscillators and Summation Indices for NYSE and Nasdaq both point to lower prices.

The $TRIN (NYSE - Short-Term trading Arms Index) had reached the upper Bollinger Band. This alone may suggest a bounce or reversal in equities. However, MACD and Stochastic have just turned up, and support the idea of a rising $TRIN, which is the continuation of the down-trend in stocks.   

German DAX - FTSE - SPX - Nikkei vs Delta

German DAX: 
Intermediate-Term-Delta #5 Low = Oct 11
ITD #a High = Oct 17
ITD #b L = Oct 22-24
ITD #6 H = Oct 31 = Medium-Term-Delta # 5 H?
ITD #7 L = Nov 5

 

British FTSE:
ITD #5 H = Oct 16
ITD #6 L = Oct 21-24
ITD #7 H = Oct 31 = MTD # 5 H ?

 

S&P 500:
ITD #5 L = Oct 12
ITD #a H = Oct 16
ITD #b L = Oct 21-23
ITD #6 H = Oct 29 = MTD # 5 H ?
ITD #7 L = Nov 7

Nikkei:
ITD #6 Low = Oct 15
ITD #7 High = Oct 17
ITD #8 L = Oct 22-24
ITD #9 H = Oct 31 = MTD # 8 H?
ITD #10 L = Nov 8
ITD #11 H = Nov 14 = MTD # 8 H?

Carl Futia - Top of Domed House ?

Credits: Carl Futia

... On October 5 the Dow put it its highest print and highest close of the bull market which started from the March 2009 low point. It is easy to see the "squarish" topping pattern characteristic of domed house tops. These usually look like lopsided head and shoulders tops. If this one runs true to form there should be a rally from yesterday's low to a lower top which would be point 25 on the chart. One fact which supports this interpretation is that the standard time count of 7 months 10 days if started from point 15 predicts a high in early October.

It is certainly possible that I am a bit early in my interpretation here. Perhaps the October 5 top will turn out to be point 21 instead of point 23.

...The strongest single piece of bullish evidence I see is that the majority of investors surveyed by AAII are bearish. I think it would be unprecedented for a bear market to start under such conditions. But precedents are made to be broken as are all statistical records. The other piece of bullish evidence can be found in the action of the bull market leaders, Google and Apple, both of which made historical highs within the past couple of weeks. Another leading sector, home building, is also at new bull market highs.

Looking at all this evidence I'd say that the bearish factors are ones which are not helpful for precise timing. The AAII sentiment number suggests that my call of point 23 is early, but as I said above that just means that the domed house will take more time to develop its top. So I think the best way to approach this market is to defer a bear market prognosis until the green trend line is broken or until another point 23 or point 27 at new bull market highs becomes visible when AAII sentiment is bullish, not bearish as it is now.  

Credits: Carl Futia. 

See also HERE

German DAX vs Delta & Space Weather

ITD #1 = Sep 5 L
ITD #2 = Sep 21 H = MTD #5 ?
ITD #3 = Sep 28 L (Full Moon)
ITD #4 = Oct 5 H
ITD #5 = Oct 10-11 L
ITD #y = Oct 15-16 H (New Moon)
ITD #z = Oct 22-24 L
ITD #6 = Oct 26-29 H = MTD #5 ? (Full Moon)
ITD #7 = Nov 7 L = MTD #6 ?

HERE + HERE + HERE

Since October 8 strong geomagnetic storms are pressing on traders' mood, and more M-class flares along with high values in the K Index should be expected into October 10-12 (HERE + HERE).

When a solar flare or CME happens, it can take up to 2 days to impact the Earth, depending on the solar wind's speed. Therefore, expecting drops in the stock market up to two days after large flares is reasonable (HERE + HERE).

www.astrocycle.net

20th Century Hyperinflations

Credits: Miles Franklin

Amateur Investors (AI)

SPX adjusted by Consumer Price Index (CPI)

www.investmenttools.com

2013 - Peaks in Solar Cycle #24, Stocks and Commodities

Credits: John Hampson

... Solar peaks occur roughly every 11 years and secular peaks in equities and commodities occur close to solar peaks. There is a sine wave in long term real stocks and an opposite-polarity sine wave in long term real commodities, both which have around a 33 year (equivalent to 3 solar cycles or 1 lunisolar cycle) duration ... Treasuries (or inverse rates/yields) move in around a 66 year cycle (2 lunisolar cycles) with peaks and troughs converging with secular commodities peaks. The result is we see two different kinds of secular commodities bulls: one set against rates moving to a peak, and one set against rates moving to nothing ...