Showing posts sorted by date for query Power of 3. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query Power of 3. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Saturday, July 11, 2026

ICT New York Midnight Open (NYMO): How to Actually Use It | Darya Filipenka

Traders use the New York Midnight Open (NYMO) in different ways. This is my approach. It is grounded in ICT principles (see second video below), though my interpretation differs slightly (first video). The New York midnight open is not a standalone trading level; it is a contextual framework for understanding accumulation, manipulation, and distribution within the intraday cycle.
 
Black horizontal line represents the NY Midnight Open (NYMO).
Red shaded area: discount entry zone at FVG; Green shaded area: expected premium extension target zone.
Option 1: Breakout Continuation (FVG)
A strong body closure past NY midnight open sets up a trend play. Enter on the retest of the first 3m/5m Fair Value Gap (FVG or imbalance) formed after the break. Stop loss goes beyond midnight open or the nearest swing point; target 2R.

Option 2: Liquidity Sweep Continuation
Price wicks through NY midnight open but fails to close past it, indicating a sweep. Enter at the next candle open once an opposing order block (OB) forms to confirm continuation. Stop loss goes at the sweep swing point; target 2R.

Option 3: Weak Breakout Reversal
A weak closure or immediate rejection wick at midnight open signals a fakeout. Enter a reversal play at the next candle open once a counter-trend OB forms. Stop loss goes at the midnight open or recent swing level; target 2R.

Option 4: Higher-Timeframe Inversion
A strong breakout hits a higher-timeframe (HTF) key level, forcing a reversal. Enter at the next candle open when the initial breakout FVG fails and acts as an Inversion FVG (IFVG), aligned with an opposing OB. Stop loss goes at the HTF swing point.
A key misconception is treating it as a level to trade from. Price does not react to it because it is "magical"; it serves as a reference point. Its value is understood through the Power of Three: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. The New York midnight open often marks the transition between these phases.
 
ICT NYMO Explained.
 
Think of a sprinter: accumulation is the setup, manipulation the adjustment, and distribution the race. The move does not begin at the New York midnight open—it begins only after price leaves and holds away from it.
Stage 1: Accumulation
Defined by range-bound price with no clear direction or strong volume, often forming around the daily open. Intraday, price frequently consolidates near the New York midnight open. Position relative to the level is meaningless here; directional bias is not yet established and the dealing range is still forming.
Stage 2: Manipulation
The false move before the real move. Price may trade above or below the level to induce liquidity, but this does not define premium or discount. It is typically a setup. Price should interact with higher-timeframe levels and show a reaction, confirmed by order flow shifts or displacement. Once price completes this and returns through the level, manipulation is likely ending.
Stage 3: Distribution
The real move begins only after a decisive break and close beyond the NYMO level. Sweeps or consolidation indicate continued manipulation. A strong close, typically with displacement, confirms expansion. Repeated returns to the level signal that the range is still forming.
Dealing Range Perspective
The Dealing Range is the price range between a defined high and low that establishes premium and discount. The New York midnight open acts as the center of the developing range. Only after distribution begins do true expansion, clear premium/discount zones, and defined swings emerge. These cannot be traded meaningfully until price holds away from equilibrium.
 
Invalidation
If price fails to hold after a break, distribution is not active. Rejections (sweeps without close) and weak closes followed by reversals signal lack of confirmation. Strong, sustained closes are required. Continuous trading above and below the NYMO level without expansion indicates ongoing accumulation—best to stay out.
 
Invalidation Signal: If price fails to hold away from the NYMO, distribution is
inactive and the market remains undecided. Not every touch is significant. 
 
Retest Logic (Time-Based Behavior)
If the level is not retested between 3:00–7:00 a.m. New York time (range formation window), the probability increases of a retest between 8:30–11:00 a.m. If it is retested early, the range is often balanced and distribution may continue. If not, the level becomes a likely pullback or mitigation target, creating higher-probability setups.
 
How to Trade It
Wait for a strong close beyond the NYMO level, then look for a retracement into the first fair value gap; enter on reaction with risk beyond the level. Alternatively, treat sweeps as continuation setups with confirmation via order flow and structure, refining entries with candle sequences, order blocks, or fair value gaps.

If a break lacks conviction, wait for confirmation such as a break in opposing structure. In optimal conditions, combine a strong break, order flow confirmation, and higher-timeframe alignment. If a higher-timeframe objective is reached immediately after the break, favor reversal setups.
 
Some Extremely Useful Statistics
The following statistics can be used to align with what occurs between 3:00 and 7:00 a.m. to confirm a potential retracement.
► SPX / ES: If price opens at 9:30 a.m. above the New York midnight open, there is a 58% chance it will retrace to that level. If price opens below the New York midnight open, the probability of a retracement increases to 69%. 
► On Thursdays, there is a stronger tendency to retrace to the New York midnight open when price opens below the level. On these days, the probability increases to 88%.
► NDX / NQ: If price opens above the New York midnight open, there is a 57% chance of a retracement. If price opens below the level, there is a 63% chance of a retracement back to the New York midnight open.
► On Tuesdays there is a 67% chance of a retracement to the New York midnight open if price opens above the level, and a 73% chance of a retracement if price opens below it. 
► Gold: If price opens above the New York midnight open, there is a 47% chance of a retracement to that level. This idea should again be aligned with higher-timeframe levels and the 3:00 to 7:00 a.m. range—specifically, what occurs during that window. If price opens below the New York midnight open, there is a 51% chance of a retracement.
 Reference:
  
 
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Saturday, May 23, 2026

2026 Saturn-Neptune Conjunction: Global Ideological and Institutional Reset

 
The above geopolitical cycle model developed by André Barbault correlates major transformations with long planetary cycles, especially the geocentric 36-year conjunction cycle of Saturn and Neptune, historically associated with ideological restructuring of states and political systems. 
Saturn-Neptune conjunction in Aries on February 20, 2026.
It is important to recognize that in both geocentric and heliocentric mundane astrology, outer-planet cycles—such as the conjunction of Saturn and Neptune—describe broad rhythms of global historical development rather than events confined to the USSR, Russia, or any other single empire, state, nation, or civilization (as is the case in natal astrology applied to states, nations, etc.). 
 
36-Year Saturn-Neptune Conjunction Cycle (1600 to 2200 | EST/EDT). 
 
Saturn represents structure, boundaries, authority, governments, discipline, death, and the weight of material reality, as well as time. Neptune signifies dreams, illusions, disillusionment, ideology, deception, oil, religion, and the transcendent—along with spirituality. When these two planets conjoin, a collision occurs between the real and the ideal: old structures dissolve, new visions emerge, and the line between liberation and tyranny becomes increasingly blurred.

The latest Saturn-Neptune conjunction occurred on February 20, 2026 at 0° Aries, the Aries Point traditionally linked with events of global manifestation. This alignment inaugurated a new Saturn–Neptune cycle extending roughly from 2026 to 2062 and therefore marks a probable phase of systemic ideological and institutional reorganization comparable in structural significance to earlier conjunction periods such as 1917 and 1989. The broader planetary configuration intensifies the importance of this reset (see table below). Pluto entered Aquarius in 2024, a transit associated with technological transformation, mass mobilization, and redistribution of political power that lasts into the 2040s. 

Neptune is moving into Aries in 2025–2026, symbolizing ideological mobilization and the emergence of new collective narratives, while Saturn also enters Aries in 2026, imposing institutional pressure and forcing structural redefinition of political authority. At the same time Uranus enters Gemini in 2026, historically correlated with communication revolutions and geopolitical confrontation; previous passages coincided with the American Revolutionary era and the Second World War. 

The simultaneous ingress of several outer planets during the mid-2020s therefore indicates a rare generational transition affecting technological systems, ideological structures, and geopolitical balances.
 
The February 2026 Saturn–Neptune conjunction marks the opening of a new ideological cycle. The most volatile interval will be approximately 2025–2030, when structural tensions manifest through wars, crises and systemic reorganization, followed by institutional consolidation and a new world order between roughly 2032 and 2035. 
Within this configuration the latest Saturn–Neptune conjunction functions as the cycle’s ignition point. Conjunction phases historically coincide with dissolution of prevailing ideological frameworks and the emergence of new political narratives. When combined with Pluto in Aquarius and Uranus in Gemini, the interval from roughly 2025 to 2027 appears as the principal systemic shock phase. 

Short-term activations occur when faster bodies cross the conjunction degree: transits of Mars and the Sun in February–March 2026 and again during mid-2026, when Mars forms tense aspects with Uranus, represent a trigger windows during which underlying structural tensions manifest through political crises, financial disruptions, and abrupt internal, regional, and global geopolitical confrontations. 
 
After the conjunction the cycle normally enters a formative phase lasting several years. Between approximately 2028 and 2031 the developing Saturn–Neptune dynamic may manifest as ideological polarization and attempts to construct new institutional frameworks. 

» The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. «
Antonio Gramsci, Prison Notebook #3, 1930.

Uranus advancing through Gemini emphasizes technological rivalry, cyber conflict, and strategic competition in communications and artificial intelligence, while Pluto in Aquarius intensifies collective movements and challenges entrenched hierarchies of power. The interaction of these cycles suggests a period in which nations, states, and civilizations experience pronounced internal political tension while simultaneously confronting structural competition within an evolving multipolar and eurasiacentric international system.
 
By the early 2030s this cycle tends toward consolidation. From roughly 2032 to 2035 the ideological and institutional structures that emerge from the earlier crisis phase are likely to stabilize, producing revised political doctrines, new geopolitical alignments, or reconfigured economic frameworks. Historical precedents indicate that such consolidation does not necessarily imply decline; states, nations, and civilizations often emerge from these cycles transformed but institutionally durable. 
 
Nevertheless, the concentration of outer-planet transitions in the mid-2020s implies that the interval from about 2025 to 2030 represents the most volatile portion of the Saturn–Neptune cycle. In strict cyclical terms, this period constitutes the window in which all states, nations, and civilizations in the international system most likely encounter a decisive ideological and structural turning point shaping the political order of the subsequent decades.
 
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Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Entering the First Global Total War | Alex Krainer

In their conversation, Lena Petrova (IR, MBA, CPA, and political economy analyst) and commodities trader, former hedge fund manager, and geopolitical analyst Alex Krainer examine the dimensions of what he terms the "First Global Total War," driven by major energy and trade disruptions and broader global market stress stemming from the US war against Iran.
 
» This is not the Third World War. This is the First Global Total War. « 
 
Krainer frames the present moment as a systemic confrontation between two competing models of governance: the Western-led, British-derived system of free trade (globalism)—criticized as fostering a regulatory and labor "race to the bottom"—and the emerging multipolar framework rooted in Alexander Hamilton’s American System of political economy (economic nationalism). The latter is a protectionist, nationally oriented, and genuinely wealth-creating model that was applied with notable success by the United States, Germany, and Japan in the 19th century, and later as sovereigntist derivatives by Korea, Mexico, Brazil, Iran, China, and numerous other nations throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries. 
 
"The Monkey System:" 1831 cartoon attacking Henry Clay's "American System" from a
Jacksonian Democratic perspective favoring limited federal economic intervention.
 
Krainer forecasts a prolonged systemic confrontation with significant implications for global energy production, industrial output, trade, and food markets, arguing that tensions and worldwide wars will persist until the foundations of the current Western neocolonial financial architecture (including private central banking) are fundamentally challenged, ultimately defeated, and replaced.
 
 
Since April 3, ten oil refineries, power plants, and energy facilities across
 seven countries have been destroyed by "fires," "explosions," and "accidents."   
 
Escalation of Conflict
Krainer interprets the wars in Ukraine and West Asia as interconnected theaters within a broader strategic struggle. He argues that Western powers seek to open additional fronts—potentially in the Baltics, the Balkans, and around the Strait of Malacca—to prevent de-escalation in Ukraine and sustain strategic pressure.

Energy as a Strategic Lever
Control over energy flows, particularly through chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, is presented as the central axis of conflict. Krainer characterizes this dynamic as part of a long-standing effort by Western neocolonial financial interests to preserve influence over the Eurasian landmass.

Commodities Markets and Inflation
On the economic front, Krainer contends that elevated equity valuations are being sustained by central bank liquidity, masking underlying structural fragility. This, he argues, has produced a growing divergence between financial markets and the real economy. He anticipates upward pressure on oil and other commodities, describing current price behavior as slow-moving and lagged in its response to geopolitical developments.

 
Rise of a Parallel System
Krainer highlights the gradual emergence of alternative financial and commodity networks operating beyond Western institutional control. He notes that many countries in the Global South are exploring paths outside IMF-aligned frameworks, despite the political and economic risks involved.

  
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Friday, April 17, 2026

US War Against the World, and the Future International Order | Jiang Xueqin

The US war on Iran has entered a temporary pause, with no major events reported in the days following the Islamabad negotiations. This lull suggests the 'ceasefire' functions as a strategic reset rather than a resolution. 
 
Ceasefire Functions as Strategic Reset and Preparation for Prolonged Global War of Attrition
The US, having been placed on the defensive during the active phase, is using the cease fire to reposition forces, reassess tactics, and prepare for the next phase of operations. Behind-the-scenes movements include the Indonesian Defense Minister's visit to Washington, and the signing of an agreement granting US access to Indonesian airspace. This cooperation advances US influence over the Strait of Malacca, the world's largest maritime chokepoint and the route for roughly 80 percent of China's oil imports. 
» Do you think Scott Bessent wants oil prices to fall? To crash? Maybe down to $20 a barrel? Do you think the energy giants would be happy with that? No, they would be furious because the cost of production in the US is around $30 a barrel. Do you think Bessent hasn’t thought about this? Of course, he has. He likely predicts, just as I do, that oil prices could rise to $150 a barrel. That’s why I said Bessent shouldn’t have made these statements public—they act as a warning signal about a potential US military operation. It suggests that the US might be preparing to take action against Iran and, in doing so, potentially shut down the entire Persian Gulf. « Lu QiYuan, 2024.
Such control would counter Iranian dominance in the Strait of Hormuz and could disrupt East Asian economies if access were restricted. Further reinforcement comes from the deployment of the aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush, accompanied by approximately 10,000 Marines, raising total US troop strength in the theater to 60,000 and signaling readiness for potential ground operations. Domestically, President Trump has requested a $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget for the coming fiscal year, automatic draft registration for young men begins in December, and major US automakers have been directed to initiate war-munitions production. 

»  A worldwide naval confrontation centered on energy and trade access. «
 
These steps indicate preparation for a prolonged war of attrition. Complementing this posture, the announced naval blockade focuses on the Indian Ocean, avoiding direct exposure to Iranian missiles near the Strait of Hormuz while effectively enforcing a global embargo on vessels deemed to support Iran, including Russian 'shadow-fleet tankers' and Chinese shipping. The conflict is thereby expanding into a worldwide naval confrontation centered on energy and trade access.

Three Competing Models for the Future International Order
The unfolding events point toward three distinct and competing models for the future international order: (1) The Technate: Focused on North America; (2) Pax Judaica: Focused on the Levant and Israel; and (3) The Third Rome: Alexander Dugin's model, where Moscow unites the Eurasian continent to create a new era of world peace.

The trajectory suggests the end of the current era of relative global stability. A sustained global conflict would compel US re-industrialization to support overseas operations, positioning the US as the central supplier of resources and manufactured goods while other regions confront disruption and scarcity. Trump's long-standing mercantilist stance—evident since the 1980s in calls to seize Iranian assets—underpins this shift from a finance-oriented economy to one rooted in resources and production. Observers note that over 127 vessels are now rerouting toward the Gulf of Mexico, consistent with a deliberate strategy to redirect trade flows. President Trump has consistently advocated monetizing US naval power by imposing tariffs on maritime trade instead of providing unrestricted protection.

Russia is positioned within the expanding naval confrontation through its shadow-fleet tankers, which fall under the scope of the US global blockade. The broader context of energy-access competition places additional pressure on European and Eurasian supply lines, though specific Russian responses remain tied to the ongoing US commitments in the Iran theater.

The Technate of America
The broader US strategy aligns with the Technate of America concept, a 1930s proposal for transforming the US into a self-sufficient continental fortress governed by technocratic principles. This model envisioned a unified territory incorporating Canada, Mexico, Greenland, Colombia, and Venezuela, managed through data-driven decision-making by engineers and scientists rather than traditional democratic or financial systems. 
 
» There's an additional strategy: The US could swiftly vassalize Mexico, rapidly industrialize it, and use it to complete a North American internal economic circulation. [...] In fact, the most direct and simplest way for the US to reindustrialize would be to militarily occupy Mexico and use it as a substitute for China in its economic system. « 
This framework prioritizes access to Venezuelan oil and the Argentina-Bolivia-Chile Lithium Triangle, critical for advanced technologies. Related initiatives include annexing Greenland, pressure on Canada, special-forces operations against Mexican cartels, and indications of military action against Cuba in the coming month.
» Venezuela remains a major obsession for the US. The US is expected to escalate sanctions and covert actions to oust the Maduro government in order to gain access to the world's largest reserves of hydrocarbons, as well as to gold, bauxite, iron ore, uranium, diamonds, and rare-earth elements [...]. Bolivia, which has the world's largest lithium reserves, will be treated in a similar fashion. Washington think tanks still consider Brazil a "swing state," and controlling Brazil's policies remains central to US efforts to limit and sabotage BRICS in the region. « Pepe Escobar, 2024.
These policies echo the Technate's emphasis on resource security, onshoring manufacturing, and continental self-sufficiency. The nations involved in recent US disputes—Canada, Greenland, Nicaragua, Honduras, Cuba, Venezuela, Colombia, and Mexico—correspond precisely to the geographic scope outlined in the original Technate map. Elon Musk has expressed support for aspects of this framework; his grandfather was an early proponent of the movement.

Elite Civil War and Internal Tensions
The current global instability stems from an intensifying internal contest within the US between nationalist and globalist factions. Opposition to Trump's strategy is anticipated from entrenched globalist elements, including the City of London and Wall Street, which continue to influence the European Union, NATO, and segments of the US deep state. These actors may respond with economic sabotage, engineered recessions, and organized anti-war protests directed at the national draft. 

Historian Peter Turchin's analysis of elite overproduction provides context: empires decline when excess elites act as societal parasites, and the US now confronts precisely such dynamics. Emerging technology and artificial-intelligence leaders from Silicon Valley are challenging the traditional financial elite amid unprecedented levels of debt and political polarization. This domestic clash of political factions underscores the risk of extended internal conflict within the US. Comparable nationalist-globalist divides are also evident in China, Russia, Iran, and Europe. 

  
 
World War Trump.
[ Jiang Xueqin, April 21, 2026 ]

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