Geomagnetic forecast suggests weakness also for next Monday, April 23. 
Friday, April 20, 2012
Market & Solar Activity
Yesterday a rapid increase in Sunspots went along with the market's decline.
Geomagnetic forecast suggests weakness also for next Monday, April 23.
Geomagnetic forecast suggests weakness also for next Monday, April 23. Monday, April 16, 2012
Recent STD Red Weeks
April 16-17 major High - sharp decline into April 20-23 Low - rally into mid May
(follow upper STD scheme)
Saturday, April 14, 2012
The Kondratieff Cycle And Subdivisions
The economic long wave is a boom and bust cycle driving the global economy, first discovered by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff in
the 1920s. Kondratieff was researching debt, interest rate, production
and prices when he discovered the economic long wave. The Long Wave
Dynamics approach calculates the ideal Kondratieff long wave cycle as 56
years in length, but it can run long and short in Fibonacci ratios to
the ideal length in time.
The current long wave is of the long variety and began in 1949. Current analysis suggests that the current K-wave will end in 2013, running eight years and a Fibonacci ratio of 14.5% longer than the ideal 56 years.
 |
| www.escholarship.org |
The Kitchin Cycles: Harvard’s Joseph Schumpeter concluded that every long wave was made up of 18 smaller business cycles or Kitchin cycles. In more recent years, with more sophisticated charting technology and market analysis, the research conclusions of market analyst P.Q. Wall, that the long wave is make up of only 16 market cycles, has been validated. This is an essential distinction in cycle research.
 |
| Schumpeter’s model of how all the cycles worked together to produce long waves included Kitchin cycles (the regular business cycle of 3-5 years) and Juglar cycles (7-11 years), with three Kitchins in each Juglar. Schumpeter also wrote of the Kuznets cycles (15-25 years), but didn’t put them in the charts below. The chart depicts the flow of the Kitchin and Juglar cycles integrated in 56-year long wave cycles. Note that Schumpeter’s model presented 18 business cycles in a regular long wave. See: schumpeter_business_cycles.pdf |
Market cycles differ from business cycles in that they are identified
on an index chart, and not necessarily in the economic data as a
business cycle. However, they often correlate to the regular business or
trade cycle. Every long wave appears to be made up of 16 market
“Kitchin” cycles.
 |
| The chart above demonstrates our count of the 15 Kitchin cycles that have come and gone in the current long wave since 1949 using stochastics. We are currently in cycle number 16, with its expected conclusion in the year 2013. |
The 16 Kitchin cycles that make up a long wave are ideally 42 months in length, but they are rarely ideal and fluctuate in length both short and long, often in Fibonacci ratios of their ideal length in time. In each Kitchin Cycle there are ideally 36 dips or 36 Hurst "5 week" lows.
The Kitchin Third: The ideal Kitchin cycle is 42 months or 1277.5 days in length, the ideal Kitchin Third is 14 months or 425.83 days. A Kitchin cycle is made up of 9 Wall Cycles, therefore each Kitchin Third is made up of three Wall Cycles. PQ Wall had a general rule of third last and weakest. This goes for the final Kitchin Third in a Kitchin Cycle, but also goes for Wall Cycle #3, #6, and #9, or the final Wall Cycle in each Kitchin Third. The Kitchin Cycle often unfolds in the three Kitchin Third sections, but the Kitchin Third is not typically as distinct as the other cycles.
Friday, April 13, 2012
Al Larson's Natural Times
May 9th, 2002 [Al Larson @ http://daytradingforecasts.com]
Every now and then God blesses me with a new insite into the marvelous workings of the universe. A few weeks ago, I saw a new phenonema operating in the S&P. This I call Natural Times. These are times of energy impulses in the S&P. Most of the time, there is no planet aspect at these times. They are not as simple as that. These points tend to be pretty accurate, and seem to account for many of the turns during the day.
Apparently Al Larson's Natural Times is a set of fixed cycles dividing the 24 h-day in 4 major cycles of 6 hours each, and moving back 4 Minutes per day. About 4 Minutes because the geocentric movement of the Sun (or rotation of Earth towards Sun) = average 1° every 4 min [1 Day = 1440 minutes/360°], sometimes more, sometimes a little less … check solar ephemeris for solar angular speed per day.
The basic rhythm between these times is always [in minutes]
00:30 00:23 00:19 00:25 00:33 00:53 00:48 00:44 00:23 01:01 = 05:59 hh:mm
00:30 00:23 00:19 00:25 00:33 00:53 00:48 00:44 00:23 01:01 = 05:59 hh:mm
00:30 00:23 00:19 00:25 00:33 00:53 00:48 00:44 00:23 01:01 = 05:59 hh:mm
00:30 00:23 00:19 00:25 00:33 00:53 00:48 00:44 00:23 01:01 = 05:59 hh:mm
e.g.
2012-Apr-12 (Thu) 08:17 08:50 09:43 10:31 11:15 11:38 12:39 13:09 ...
2012-Apr-13 (Fri) 08:13 08:46 09:39 10:27 11:11 11:34 12:35 13:05 ...
2012-Apr-14 (Sat) 08:09 08:42 09:35 10:23 11:07 11:30 12:31 13:01 ...
2012-Apr-15 (Sun) 08:05 08:38 09:31 10:19 11:03 11:26 12:27 12:57 ...
2012-Apr-16 (Mon) 08:01 08:34 09:27 10:15 10:59 11:22 12:23 12:53 ...
Thursday, April 12, 2012
STD-Green-Red-Blue-Pattern in the SPX & ST Outlook
This week was a 'Blue Week' = M-shaped. Ideally the right M-shoulder-high was today.
Next week is a red week = trending = high of week on Monday - low of week on Friday or inverse
tomorrow Friday = last Monday or inverse = blue = W-shaped
= choppy
= (9.40H) 10.00-30L 12.45H 1.40L 3.00-30H
= choppy
= (9.40H) 10.00-30L 12.45H 1.40L 3.00-30H
Next Monday = today Thursday or inverse
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
W.D. Gann's Cycles for Stock Market, Soybeans & Corn
In
the stock market and commodity courses that W.D. Gann published during
the 1930's he had a section on cycles. Gann listed his major cycles as:
82 to 90 Years, 60 Years, 45 Years, 30 Years, and 20 Years
Some
analysts state that Gann's 60-Year Cycle was his "Master Time Factor"
because it is twice his 30-Year Cycle and three times his 20-Year Cycle.
Gann listed his minor cycles as:
10 Years, 5 Years, 3 Years, 2 Years, and 1 Year.
Gann
taught his students to go back in time to see what the market under
study was doing 82 to 90 years ago, 60 years ago, 45 years ago etc. This
method of Gann Cycle Analysis is quite useful as it gives one a roadmap
of what pattern may unfold during the coming year or so.
If
one finds in the market under analysis the pattern that unfolded 60
years ago has comparisons to the pattern that unfolded 30 years ago, or
20 years ago, the probabilities favor a comparable pattern unfolding at
the current time.
However, there are additional ways
to use Gann's Cycles. Smaller intervals of Gann's Cycles are useful
tools as they align with highs, lows, and accelerations.
One-fifth
(the 17-year cycle) divisions of Gann's 84-Year Cycle regularly align
with major highs and lows in stocks. The depression era low of July 1932
to the beginning of the post WW II bull market in 1949 is 17 years. The
low of 1949 to the high of 1966 is another 17 years. From early 1966 to
August 1982, it is 17 years. August 1982 to January 2000 is another 17
years. January 2000 to December 2016 will be another 17 years.
Obviously, the one-fifth (17-year) division of Gann's 84-Year Cycle is quite important in the stock market.
Various intervals of Gann's smaller cycles are just as significant.
Let's now look at Gann's 84-Year Cycle in soybean prices.
This
chart shows the sawtooth, high-low pattern of one-sixth divisions of
Gann's 84-Year Cycle in soybeans. In soybeans, measurements of Gann's
84-Year Cycle are taken from the spike high in soybean prices of
February 1, 1918. One revolution of the 84-Year Cycle completed at the
historic low of October 2001. It is amazing that after 84- Years, this
interval of the cycle continues to align with historic highs and lows.
The
84-Year Cycle shows there is a one-third division to the lows and a
one-third division to the highs. The only exception to the sawtooth
pattern was the historical low of October 2001. The probabilities favor
the turning point in 2016 will revert to the pattern and be a
significant low.
Let us now take a look at smaller divisions of the 84-Year Cycle in soybeans. This chart shows an approximate 48 to 50 Week Interval of Gann's 84-Year Cycle measured from February 1, 1918.
... A
major bull market in beans began on June 8, 2010 just as this interval
of Gann's 84-Year Cycle bottomed and turned up.
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Saturday, April 7, 2012
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Eurodollar COT Indications for Stock Market Tops | Tom McClellan
www.mcoscillator.com - February 03, 2012
... For
almost a year, we have known that a top was due to arrive in February
2012. And sure enough, stock prices have been rising nicely in recent
weeks as fulfillment of that expectation.
Now this leading
indication says that things are going to get less fun for investors for a
while. The next 3 months show a sideways to downward structure in the
eurodollar COT data, and the implication is that the steep price advance
that we have been seeing should transition to a more sideways market ...
Eurodollar futures COT chart (from last year) sees the S&P 500 correcting until June, but then rallying hard. The next
major inflection point is due in early June, when this leading
indication says that a big multi-month rally is due to begin.
_____________________________________________
There are some informational jewels in the CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, and sometimes in ways that most people would not imagine. This week’s chart looks at data on commercial traders’ net positions in eurodollar futures, but with a twist: that data is shifted forward by one year to reveal that it actually leads the movements of the stock market.
... The term “eurodollars” should not be confused with the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro. It refers to dollar denominated time deposits in European banks, and the term predates the creation of the euro currency. Eurodollar deposits typically follow the LIBOR interest rates.
... I am taking data from the eurodollar market, and applying it to an analysis of the US stock market. The key discovery that I made a few years ago is that the movements of the SP500 tend to echo what the commercial eurodollar traders were doing previously. I played around with alignments to get the best fit, and found that a one-year lead time gave the best correlation.
Let’s pause a minute to let that deep point sink in. Commercial eurodollar traders seem to “know” a year in advance what the stock market is going to do. It is not a perfect correlation, but it is a darned good one. I’m not sure what makes this work, but I have seen that it has worked great since about 1997. It may help to understand that the commercial traders of eurodollar futures are typically the big banks, who are using these futures contracts to manage their assets and fund flows. So what we are seeing in their futures trading are responses to immediate banking liquidity conditions, and those actions give us a glimpse of future liquidity conditions for the stock market. These liquidity conditions are revealed first in the banking system, and then the liquidity waves travel through the stock market a year later. But even if we cannot identify exactly what makes something work, after a few years of seeing that it does work we can learn to accept it.
_____________________________________________
There are some informational jewels in the CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, and sometimes in ways that most people would not imagine. This week’s chart looks at data on commercial traders’ net positions in eurodollar futures, but with a twist: that data is shifted forward by one year to reveal that it actually leads the movements of the stock market.
... The term “eurodollars” should not be confused with the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro. It refers to dollar denominated time deposits in European banks, and the term predates the creation of the euro currency. Eurodollar deposits typically follow the LIBOR interest rates.
... I am taking data from the eurodollar market, and applying it to an analysis of the US stock market. The key discovery that I made a few years ago is that the movements of the SP500 tend to echo what the commercial eurodollar traders were doing previously. I played around with alignments to get the best fit, and found that a one-year lead time gave the best correlation.
Let’s pause a minute to let that deep point sink in. Commercial eurodollar traders seem to “know” a year in advance what the stock market is going to do. It is not a perfect correlation, but it is a darned good one. I’m not sure what makes this work, but I have seen that it has worked great since about 1997. It may help to understand that the commercial traders of eurodollar futures are typically the big banks, who are using these futures contracts to manage their assets and fund flows. So what we are seeing in their futures trading are responses to immediate banking liquidity conditions, and those actions give us a glimpse of future liquidity conditions for the stock market. These liquidity conditions are revealed first in the banking system, and then the liquidity waves travel through the stock market a year later. But even if we cannot identify exactly what makes something work, after a few years of seeing that it does work we can learn to accept it.
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The Wall Cycle (aka 20-Week Cycle): The Wall cycle is the ideal trader’s cycle. Accurate technical analysis of the Wall cycle is essential for stock market traders. If you divide the ideal 56 year long wave by 144 you have the ideal Wall cycle. The mathematical relationship of these cycles indicates the Wall cycle is a miniature long wave. The approximate 20 week cycle (141.9 days) fluctuates short and long by Fibonacci ratios to the ideal length.
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again - and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another’s, and each obeying its own law … The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint."
Mark Twain