Monday, April 23, 2012
Friday, April 20, 2012
Market & Solar Activity
Yesterday a rapid increase in Sunspots went along with the market's decline.
Geomagnetic forecast suggests weakness also for next Monday, April 23.
Geomagnetic forecast suggests weakness also for next Monday, April 23. 
Monday, April 16, 2012
Recent STD Red Weeks
April 16-17 major High - sharp decline into April 20-23 Low - rally into mid May
(follow upper STD scheme)
Saturday, April 14, 2012
The Kondratieff Cycle and Its Subdivisions | David Knox Barker
The economic long wave is a boom-and-bust cycle that drives the global economy, first discovered by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff in the 1920s. Kondratieff was researching debt, interest rates, production, and prices when he uncovered the economic long wave. The ideal Kondratieff Long Wave Cycle (K-Wave) is 56 years in length, though it can vary, running longer or shorter in Fibonacci ratios relative to the ideal duration (between five 11-year sunspot cycles and three 22-year Hale cycles).
56 year cycle in commodities, bonds, wages, and foreign trade.
The current long wave is of the extended variety and began in 1949. Current analysis suggests that this K-Wave will end in 2013, running eight years, or 14.5%, longer than the ideal 56-year duration.
The Long Wave, the Long Wave Seasons, and 16 Kitchin Cycles.
Harvard economist Joseph A. Schumpeter, author of 'Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process', believed that the economic long wave is the single most important tool for economic prognostication.
Long Wave (ideal length of 56 years).
Long Wave Seasons (ideal length of 14 years).
Kitchin Cycles (ideal length of 42 months).
Long Wave Seasons (ideal length of 14 years).
Kitchin Cycles (ideal length of 42 months).
Kitchin Third Cycles (ideal length of 14 months)
Wall Cycles (ideal length of 141.9 Day cycle).
Quarter Wall Cycles (ideally 35.475 days).
Wall Cycles (ideal length of 141.9 Day cycle).
Quarter Wall Cycles (ideally 35.475 days).
The ideal K-Wave spans 56 years and is divided into four 14-Year Seasons, each consisting of four Kitchin Cycles (approximately 42 months each). Each Kitchin Cycle is further broken down into three Kitchin Thirds (about 14 months each). Within the Kitchin Third Cycle, there are three Wall Cycles (each lasting 20 weeks or 142 calendar days). The Wall Cycle is further subdivided into four Quarter Wall Cycles (approximately 35 calendar days each). These cycles give rise to recurring patterns in financial markets and business trends.
The current long wave began in 1949 and is now in the Kondratieff Winter season. Most investors wish they had access to this long wave season chart in 2007. Every long wave has four seasons, just like a year. The approximate length of a long wave season is 14 years, though they can be shorter or longer. Each season typically contains four Kitchin cycles, with an ideal length of 42 months. However, long wave seasons can have fewer or more Kitchin cycles than the usual four.
Kitchin Cycles: Joseph Schumpeter concluded that every long wave was made up of 18 smaller business cycles, or Kitchin cycles. In more recent years, with more sophisticated charting technology and market analysis, the research conclusions of market analyst P.Q. Wall—that the long wave is made up of only 16 Kitchin cycles—have been validated. This is an essential distinction in cycle research.
Schumpeter’s
model of how all the cycles worked together to produce long waves
included Kitchin cycles (the regular business cycle of 3-5 years) and
Juglar cycles (7-11 years), with three Kitchins in each Juglar.
Schumpeter also wrote about the Kuznets cycles (15-25 years), but didn’t
include them in the charts above. The charts depict the flow of the
Kitchin and Juglar cycles integrated into 56-year long wave cycles. Note
that Schumpeter’s model presented 18 business cycles in a regular long
wave.
Market Cycles differ from Business Cycles in that they are identified on an index chart, rather than necessarily in the economic data as a business cycle. However, they often correlate with the regular business or trade cycle. Every long wave appears to be made up of 16 market "Kitchin" cycles. The 16 Kitchin cycles that make up a long wave are ideally 42 months in length, though they are rarely ideal and fluctuate in length, both shorter and longer. In each Kitchin cycle, there are ideally 36 dips or 36 Hurst "5-week" lows.
Kitchin Third: The ideal Kitchin cycle is 42 months, or 1,277.5 days, in length, while the ideal Kitchin Third is 14 months, or 425.83 days. A Kitchin cycle is made up of 9 Wall Cycles, so each Kitchin Third consists of three Wall Cycles. P.Q. Wall had a general rule: the third is often the last and weakest. This applies to the final Kitchin Third in a Kitchin Cycle, as well as to Wall Cycles #3, #6, and #9—the final Wall Cycle in each Kitchin Third. The Kitchin Cycle often unfolds in three Kitchin Third sections, but the Kitchin Third is not typically as distinct as the other cycles.
Quarter Wall Cycle (aka Trader’s Cycle): As the name implies, the Quarter Wall cycle reflects that the Wall cycle tends to unfold in four sections, or Quarter Wall cycles. The Quarter Wall cycle is a mini version of the long wave season. The ideal Quarter Wall cycle fluctuates in Fibonacci ratios relative to its ideal length of 35.475 days. The Quarter Wall is the critical cycle for traders. Just like the other cycles, the Quarter Wall will run shorter and longer relative to the “ideal”. The forecasting power of the Quarter Wall forecasting tool is often startling.
"There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures."
Julius Caesar, Act 4, Scene 3 — William Shakespeare, 1599.
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again,
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again,
and again, and again - and not capriciously, but at
regular periods, and each thing in its own period,
not another’s, and
each obeying its own law [...] The same Nature which delights in periodical
repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the
earth.
Let us not underrate the value of that hint."
The Mysterious Stranger — Mark Twain, 1898.
The Mysterious Stranger — Mark Twain, 1898.
Reference:
Friday, April 13, 2012
Natural Times | Al Larson
Apparently, Al Larson's Natural Times is a set of fixed cycles dividing the 24-hour day into four major cycles of six hours each, shifting back about four minutes per day. It is about four minutes because the geocentric movement of the Sun (or the Earth's rotation toward the Sun) averages 1° every four minutes [1 day = 1440 minutes ÷ 360°]. Sometimes it is slightly more, sometimes a little less—check the solar ephemeris for the Sun’s daily angular speed.
The basic rhythm between these times is always [in minutes]:
» Every now and then, God blesses me with a new insight into the marvelous workings of the universe. A few weeks ago, I observed a new phenomenon operating in the S&P. I call this Natural Times. These represent moments of energy impulses in the S&P. Most of the time, no planetary aspect occurs at these points—they are not that simple. Yet, these points tend to be quite accurate and seem to account for many intraday turns. «
The basic rhythm between these times is always [in minutes]:
00:30 00:23 00:19 00:25 00:33 00:53 00:48 00:44 00:23 01:01 = 05:59 hh:mm
00:30 00:23 00:19 00:25 00:33 00:53 00:48 00:44 00:23 01:01 = 05:59 hh:mm
00:30 00:23 00:19 00:25 00:33 00:53 00:48 00:44 00:23 01:01 = 05:59 hh:mm
00:30 00:23 00:19 00:25 00:33 00:53 00:48 00:44 00:23 01:01 = 05:59 hh:mm
00:30 00:23 00:19 00:25 00:33 00:53 00:48 00:44 00:23 01:01 = 05:59 hh:mm
00:30 00:23 00:19 00:25 00:33 00:53 00:48 00:44 00:23 01:01 = 05:59 hh:mm
00:30 00:23 00:19 00:25 00:33 00:53 00:48 00:44 00:23 01:01 = 05:59 hh:mm
e.g.
2012-Apr-12 (Thu) 08:17 08:50 09:43 10:31 11:15 11:38 12:39 13:09 ...
2012-Apr-13 (Fri) 08:13 08:46 09:39 10:27 11:11 11:34 12:35 13:05 ...
2012-Apr-14 (Sat) 08:09 08:42 09:35 10:23 11:07 11:30 12:31 13:01 ...
2012-Apr-15 (Sun) 08:05 08:38 09:31 10:19 11:03 11:26 12:27 12:57 ...
2012-Apr-16 (Mon) 08:01 08:34 09:27 10:15 10:59 11:22 12:23 12:53 ...
Thursday, April 12, 2012
STD-Green-Red-Blue-Pattern in the SPX & ST Outlook
This week was a 'Blue Week' = M-shaped. Ideally the right M-shoulder-high was today.
Next week is a red week = trending = high of week on Monday - low of week on Friday or inverse
tomorrow Friday = last Monday or inverse = blue = W-shaped
= choppy
= (9.40H) 10.00-30L 12.45H 1.40L 3.00-30H
= choppy
= (9.40H) 10.00-30L 12.45H 1.40L 3.00-30H
Next Monday = today Thursday or inverse
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
W.D. Gann's Cycles for Stock Market, Soybeans & Corn
In
the stock market and commodity courses that W.D. Gann published during
the 1930's he had a section on cycles. Gann listed his major cycles as:
82 to 90 Years, 60 Years, 45 Years, 30 Years, and 20 Years
Some
analysts state that Gann's 60-Year Cycle was his "Master Time Factor"
because it is twice his 30-Year Cycle and three times his 20-Year Cycle.
Gann listed his minor cycles as:
10 Years, 5 Years, 3 Years, 2 Years, and 1 Year.
Gann
taught his students to go back in time to see what the market under
study was doing 82 to 90 years ago, 60 years ago, 45 years ago etc. This
method of Gann Cycle Analysis is quite useful as it gives one a roadmap
of what pattern may unfold during the coming year or so.
If
one finds in the market under analysis the pattern that unfolded 60
years ago has comparisons to the pattern that unfolded 30 years ago, or
20 years ago, the probabilities favor a comparable pattern unfolding at
the current time.
However, there are additional ways
to use Gann's Cycles. Smaller intervals of Gann's Cycles are useful
tools as they align with highs, lows, and accelerations.
One-fifth
(the 17-year cycle) divisions of Gann's 84-Year Cycle regularly align
with major highs and lows in stocks. The depression era low of July 1932
to the beginning of the post WW II bull market in 1949 is 17 years. The
low of 1949 to the high of 1966 is another 17 years. From early 1966 to
August 1982, it is 17 years. August 1982 to January 2000 is another 17
years. January 2000 to December 2016 will be another 17 years.
Obviously, the one-fifth (17-year) division of Gann's 84-Year Cycle is quite important in the stock market.
Various intervals of Gann's smaller cycles are just as significant.
Let's now look at Gann's 84-Year Cycle in soybean prices.
This
chart shows the sawtooth, high-low pattern of one-sixth divisions of
Gann's 84-Year Cycle in soybeans. In soybeans, measurements of Gann's
84-Year Cycle are taken from the spike high in soybean prices of
February 1, 1918. One revolution of the 84-Year Cycle completed at the
historic low of October 2001. It is amazing that after 84- Years, this
interval of the cycle continues to align with historic highs and lows.
The
84-Year Cycle shows there is a one-third division to the lows and a
one-third division to the highs. The only exception to the sawtooth
pattern was the historical low of October 2001. The probabilities favor
the turning point in 2016 will revert to the pattern and be a
significant low.
Let us now take a look at smaller divisions of the 84-Year Cycle in soybeans. This chart shows an approximate 48 to 50 Week Interval of Gann's 84-Year Cycle measured from February 1, 1918.
... A
major bull market in beans began on June 8, 2010 just as this interval
of Gann's 84-Year Cycle bottomed and turned up.
Sunday, April 8, 2012
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