Presidential Cycle + Decennial Cycle + SoLunar Map | April 2016

SPX vs Presidential Cycle + Decennial Cycle | January - November 2016

Presidential Cycle + Seasonal Pattern + Decennial Cycle for March 2016

Seasonal Cycle Mar 01 - Mar 31 (1900-2015) = +0.82%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Mar 01 - Mar 31 = +1.96%
4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Mar 01 - Mar 31 = +1.95%
SoLunar Map: Feb 26 (Fri), Mar 01 (Tue), Mar 05 (Sat), Mar 08 (Tue), Mar 12 (Sat),
Mar 16 (Wed), Mar 19 (Sat), Mar 23 (Wed), Mar 27 (Sun), Mar 30 (Wed)

Seasonal Cycle Jan 01 - May 31 (1900-2015) = +2.82%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - May 31 = +3.49%
4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - May 31 = -0.97%

Seasonal Cycle (1900-2015) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.99%
4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.52%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.98%

4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.52%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.98%
1st Year of the Presidential Cycle (2017) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +5.48%
7th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2017) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +4.82%
2nd Year of the Presidential Cycle (2018) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +2.99%
8th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2018) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +13.13%
3rd Year of the Presidential Cycle (2019) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +10.12%
9th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2019) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +10.62%

2016 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA

Since 1834 the U.S.-stock market has been positive 10 (56%) out of 18 times in the 6th year of every decade, and the average annual gain of a 6th year was 3.74%. Since the 1970s the DJIA gained 16% to 26% during the 6th year of each decade. On average the DJIA's 6th year in the Decennial Cycle, the Annual or Seasonal Cycle and the Presidential Cycle are all positive. In the average Decennial Cycle the DJIA scores the Low of the 6th Year in late January, rises into mid July, drops into September, before surging for the rest of the year. The Presidential Cycle drops from an early January High to a late February Low, rises into early April, drops to late May, rises again into early September, drops to early October before rising into the year-end.

Credits: Seasonal Charts

Credits: www.realinvestmentadvice.com

SPX vs Annual Cycle + 5th Year of Decennial Cycle

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution

DJIA vs Average 5th Year of Decennial Cycle + Turbo Cycle Projection

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution

DJIA vs Lunar North Node in Zodiac Signs | Louise McWhirter

The mathematically calculated Lunar Nodes are sensitive points in space where the Moon’s orbit around the Earth
intersects the ecliptic - the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. The Ascending Node is where the Moon crosses from
south of the ecliptic to north of the ecliptic. The Descending Node is where it crosses from north of the ecliptic
to south of the ecliptic. In Western astrology the Ascending and Descending Nodes are known as the "North Node"
and the "South Node". Only the North Node is usually marked in horoscopes, as the South Node is by definition at
the opposite point in the chart. In Vedic astrology, the North and South Nodes are called Rahu and Ketu respectively,
and both are marked in the chart. Nodes always move retrograde and are considered natural malefics. Astrologically
the Nodes are thought to powerfully influencing both the affairs of nations and of people. Eclipses occur only near
the Lunar Nodes: Solar eclipses occur when the passage of the Moon through a Node coincides with the New Moon.
Lunar Eclipses occur when passage coincides with the Full Moon. The plane of the lunar orbit precesses in space
and hence the Lunar Nodes precess around the ecliptic, completing a revolution (called a Draconic or Nodal Period,
the period of nutation) in 6798.383 days or 18.612 years. The Nodes need 1.55 years to pass through one zodiac sign.

In her book 'Astrology and Stock Market Forecasting' published almost 80 years ago, financial astrologer Louise McWhirter described a theory of the business cycle. She claimed the low point of the depression was reached in summer of 1933 (Lunar North Node in Aquarius) and predicted the next peak in economic activity would occur in November 1942 (NN in Leo). Her prediction for recovery in 1942 coincided with the massive economic stimulus spending set in motion by the build-up for World War II. Looking at 100 years of stock market prices she consistently found the North Node in the sign of Aquarius during periods of low economic activity. At the halfway point in the 18.6-year cycle, the North Node is moving into the sign of Leo, where economic high points have historically been recorded. After this, the long-term trend moves lower as the North Node slowly and systematically makes its way back to the sign of Aquarius, where the cycle begins anew (see also HERE). 

Enlarge

Using McWhirter’s method, one would have expected the lowest economic period between January 2008 and August 2009 (NN in Aquarius), and then gradually improving from below normal levels to normal levels between August 2009 and August 2012 (NN in Capricorn, Sagittarius and Scorpio). The period between September 2012 and February 2014 was projected to be an above normal period for economic performance (unfortunately the red line of the averaged composite in the above chart doesn't clearly reflect this pattern). 

Though a considerable market correction between now and Q1 2016 is likely (HERE & HERE), a larger ensuing double-dip recession wouldn’t fit into the McWhirter-pattern (HERE). Instead the general upward trend should continue into the major peak-out between May 2017 and November 2018 (NN in Leo - HERE), followed by collapsing and declining markets into the 2020s (HERE).

Forecasting the NYSE with the Jupiter-Saturn Cycle | L.H. Weston

[...] Diagram A is designed to show the curve of influence produced on stock market prices by the varying angular distances of Jupiter from conjunction or opposition with Saturn. It will be seen that at 0 years and 0°, which is supposed to represent the time of geocentric conjunction and opposition of the planets, the dotted curve, which is our composite price of stock in the 10-year cycle, starts a little below the mean circle; then late in year 1 when distance is about 18° between the planets it goes to maximum height; then drops low in middle of year 3 at 54°; rises to late in year 5 or 90°; drops soon to a little late in the 7th year at 126°; rises slowly to past the 9th year or 162°; lastly, comes to a little below the mean again at 10 years, 180°, same as at beginning. Then at 180° another 10-year cycle starts and repeats this movement, and so on to eternity. It is thus seen, by the dotted curve in this diagram that Jupiter and Saturn cause maximum and minimum prices in the stock market when their geocentric angular distances between each other are about as follows:

 

Max.    Min.
18°    54°
90°    126°
          162°   180° and 0°

 

This dotted curve shows positively that the planetary influence is what we call harmonic, meaning a wave-like motion, fixed in angular position like the crystals of a snow flake (hydrogen at low temperature) with 2 minor axis that join at 72°, as illustrated by the central part of diagram A." [pp. 35-36]

See also HERE

General consensus within the astro-financial community traces the primary development of modern financial astrology to around the 1920s, when W.D. Gann mentioned a planet for the first time in a 1921 Forecasting Course and Professor J.H. Weston self published his breakthrough work 'Forecasting the New York Stock Market' (manuscript, no binding, 47 pages). Also in the early 1920s Sepharial produced most of his known 'Arcana' or 'Keys' to the markets, though he stated in his advertisements that these systems had been in development since 1898. However Professor Weston represents the earliest application of Fourier Sequences to market analysis, by breaking down component cycle waves and combining them to produce a composite model. 

J.H. Weston was a regular contributor to Frederick White's journal 'The Adept' (e.g. HERE) and also one of the first to propose a 'Decennial Cycle' theory, actually with two different versions of the ten year pattern. The first is his computation based on 50 years of data, of a series composed of 14, 20 and 28 months, called the Venus term and based upon the heliocentric system. The second is a sequence which divides the Jupiter-Saturn cycle into 10 irregular parts, but follows the geocentric system. Professor Weston was a great influence on W.D. Gann, implied by his manuscript being locked in Gann's safe, and he may have been the one who introduced Gann to Fourier cycle theory, providing Gann with the foundation for his 10 year cycle with its multiples.

Reference:
L.H. Weston (1921) - Being a Treatise on the Geometrical or Chart System of Forecasting in which is explained the principles of the art, and, in this lesson no. 1, giving demonstration with the price curve of potatoes in U.S. 

The Adept - The American Journal of Astrology (V20 N10 Oct 1920 - V21 N9 Sep 1921) 

Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for DJIA | Tom McClellan

Tom McClellan - Chart In Focus (December 11, 2014)

Tom McClellan recently presented a 10-year leading indication relationship between oil prices and the stock market, as shown in the above chart. The current oil price slide says that sometime around 2024 some type of “echo” in stock prices from this year’s oil price drop can be expected. 

Stock prices echoing oil price movements with a 10-year lag has “worked” for over 100 years and there is enough evidence to accept it, even if we cannot explain it. For now, the message of this leading indication is that the oil price rally from 1998 to 2008 has yet to see the full extent of its echo during the 2009-2018 period. While the current dip in oil prices is going to be bad for stock prices about 10 years from now, it is not really a problem for stock prices in real time. 

The following chart zooms into this correlation between the S&P500 and the Crude Oil Price shifted 10 years into the future and suggests the S&P500 would continue moving down next week, then up into end of December before forming a major low around January 6. Another rally into early July - with a correction from around March 20 to April 24 - should follow.

2015 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA

HERE & HERE

Lance Roberts @ www.streettalklive.com

TheChartStore.com

Since 1834 the U.S.-stock market has been positive 12 out of 18 times in the 4th year of every decade and the 5th year was by far the best year of the Decennial Pattern. The Dow Jones Industrial Average started in 1895 and since then 11 of the last 12 5th years were up and averaged a return of almost 22%. The exception from the pattern was 2005 when the DJIA lost 0.61%.

U.S. Stocks in 5th strongest and 6th longest Bull Cycle since 1900

The bull market since March 2009 is the 22nd bull cycle since 1900. End of December 2013 it was in its 57th month. This is about the length of the current sunspot cycle 24. The ongoing bull market is now also the 6th longest bull cycle and with a performance of 154% (closing December 31st) the 5th strongest since 1900. 

Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA (2013 - 2016)

 

HERE

Decennial Cycle and Presidential Cycle in 2013

Michael Riesner and Marc Müller: Technical Outlook 2013 - Since 1900 the US market has marked an important long-term bottom in the first 4 years of EACH decade, without exception (see table of Lance Roberts at left) ... The last major low in the S&P 500 we saw in March 2009, which obviously belongs to the last decade. So either we see in the current decade the first failure of this pattern in more than 100 years or we will see another bear market and subsequent bottom in the next 2 years, which would then fit to both, the presidential and the decennial cycle. In this context it is very interesting that if we combine both cycles and look into the past, we are getting again a consistent picture of having a high probability for seeing a new bear market in the next 24 months. Since 1941 we had 7 presidential election cycles where the post-election and mid-term year fell into the first 4 years of a decade. In 5 out of 7 cycles (72% probability) we saw significant bear markets and more importantly, they were among the most painful bear markets of the last century! 
Conclusion: Our preferred scenario for 2013 is that we see an important March top in equities, followed by a distributive summer top building phase before seeing significant weakness from a potential August top developing into Q4. ... From a potential top of around 1550 to 1570 we could see the market correcting to 1180/1100. From a secular perspective this potential new bear market could bring us a very important long-term low for equities in 2014.

 

Mass Pressure Chart 2013

Several years ago the Mass Pressure Chart was hyped and sold as W.D. Gann's ultimate secret. Daniel T. Ferrera, a pundit on the matter, admits: "I have talked to many Gann experts about the Mass Pressure Chart and most have no clue as to what it may be. I have never seen an actual original Mass Pressure Chart from W.D. Gann and I do not know of anyone else who has come across one."

However, it seems the Mass Pressure Chart is but a selective or incomplete Decennial Pattern: Each value of this equally weighted composite is derived from 6 past price values of the DJIA exactly 80, 60, 40, 30, 20, and 10 years back. The Mass Pressure Chart and the Decennial Pattern oftentimes look very much the same, and have identical turning-points.

45 Year Cycle

The second year of the Decennial Cycle again has this staggering correlation between the US stock markets of 1967 and 2012 - currently 89% (HERE). This is 45 years apart. W.D.Gann veiled it as follows: "The digits 1 to 9 when added together total 45. 45 is the most important angle. Therefore 45 years in time is a very important cycle. One-half of 45 is 22 ½ years or 270 months. One-fourth of 45 is 11 ½ years or 135 months, which is three times 45." 

In other words: Saturn-Uranus Cycle ≈ 45.3 Years ≈ conjunction, square or opposition happening about every 11.3 Years ≈ 4 * Sunspot Cycles of an average of 11.3 Years.  Of course the 45 year cycle is important, but finally just one cycle among many others, all together modulating the tides of events.  

However, sure there are periods with a specific feeling, a mentality, a zeitgeist of the majority of people, an attitude, an aura, that last for about 45 years. Hence there is also a 45 year cycle of scientific and social innovation and stagnation, each of about 20 years where there is science innovation, but humanities, opinion and social relations are "conservative" and do not change. There is a transition of about 2 to 4 years and then the humanities have numerous experiments and changes, but science becomes stagnant and does not innovate. Social conflict, revolution and war are also synchronous with this pattern (HERE & HERE & HERE & HERE).

The average second year of a decade prints a major low around this time of the year, which is (on average) amongst the best long-term buying opportunities of the decade, since during the third year the DJIA significantly surges above the second year highs. Another important fact is, that the DJIA's closed the average Election Year solidly above the June and November lows. Jeffrey Hirsh points out: "Presidential election years are the second best performing year of the four-year cycle ... When incumbent parties retained power ... stocks often bottomed within two years later ... we could see a bottom by 2014." Ten years ago some stock indices bottomed in October 2002, others in March 2003. In fact, the 45 Year Cycle projects another major low into March 2013 (most likely below this upcoming November low), and the low of the decade into May 2015. This is 43 months off the March 2009 low or 4 more 9 Month Cycles throughs ahead of us, where the current Kitchin Cycle terminates. Much could be debated on whether it is the last one of Kondratieff-Winter or the 1st one of Spring in the 6th Kondratieff-Cycle.

Such long-term projections should be understood with a grain of salt, since planetary cycles are not circles, but ellipses, where angular distance and progression does not correlate 1:1 with solar or lunar calendars. Therefore measured in days, weeks or months, these big cycles oftentimes seem to extend or to skip and shrink (HERE). Also a sequence of cycles does not need to print out identical patterns, but similar ones. Therefore the projected panic low in early 2015 does not necessarily need to become a lower low. Given the inflationary monetary policy, it could very well just mark the end of a huge (even ascending) triangle pattern that started in 1998 and 2000. 

Ideally this current decline should end on November 19, and a rally throughout the Thanksgiving-week is likely. Mercury turns direct on November 26, which is best for a ITD #8 high. A drop into a higher low on the Lunar Eclipse on November 28 is expected. An intermediate high will be in by December 3-4. A decline into the December low around New Moon ideally ends on Monday, 17th. From there some sort of early and extended Santa Claus-rally will ensue into year end or even the first trading days of 2013 (see also HERE). This will be the end of the correction. From that important high (right shoulder in the Head-and-Shoulders pattern or TPDH #27) the stock markets will start another steep decline into the general vicinity of the October 2011 low (SPX 1.100 - 1.070 / DJI 10.600 - 10.400). This 9 month cycle low is scheduled for as early as March 1 or as late as the equinox. It will be the low of 2013, the start of a new TPDH-pattern and the launchpad for a rally into December 2013. This matches the latest prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 with a maximum in the Fall of 2013. What puzzles however is the Commercial's Eurodollar Positions suggesting the party will be over by late May early June 2013 already. Time will tell.

W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table 1784 - 2121 | Extended and Adjusted

 

Reportedly W.D. Gann constructed his legendary Financial Time Table on August 8th, 1908, without an ephemeris. Gann himself has been quoted as saying that this was his greatest market discovery. It is entirely based on the moon’s north node, which completes a full cycle every 18.6-years. This is the same cycle that Louise McWhirter used to predict the stock market as well. To mimic the Lunar Declination Cycle Gann simply alternated a sequence of +19, +18, +19, +18 etc.-years across the top to get an average length of 18.6-years. However, he finally noted that an adjustment would finally be due for Dec 25th, 1989. The above table adjusted the pattern to the ephemeris. 

 

The Financial Time Table predicts years of recessions, depressions, high stock prices, panics, low stock prices, speculative times, stock market crashes, labor strikes and so on. The legend at the right of the table reads as follows:

A - Extreme low stock prices, strikes, repression, despair, and beginning of new business generation for 18-3/5 years. 4 years of rising stock prices and improving business, markets bare of goods. Young men becoming prominent.
B - High stock prices.
C - Panic
D - Low stock prices.
E - High stock prices.
F - Panic
G - Low stock prices.
H - Very high stock prices most prosperous year, waste over extravagance, most money in circulation, much speculation.
J - Major Panic-CRASH! 4-years of falling prices, business stagnated, breadlines, soup kitchens, despair, and unemployment.
K - Same as A plus strikes, unemployment, many prominent deaths. 

W.D. Gann also observed what he came to call the “decade cycle”. In his many commodity and stock market courses, he described the decade cycle this way: By studying the yearly high and low chart and going back over a long period of time, you will see the years in which bull markets culminate and the years in which bear markets begin and end.  Each decade, or 10-year cycle, which is one-tenth of 100 years, marks an important campaign… In referring to these numbers and these years, we mean the calendar years.  

 

To understand this, study 1891 to 1900, 1901 to 1910, 1911 to 1920, 1921 to 1930 and 1931 to 1939.  The ten year cycle continues to repeat over and over, but the greatest advances and declines occur at the end of the 20-year and 30year cycles, and again at the end of the 50-year and 60-year cycles, which are stronger than the others.

Year
1. A year in which a bear market ends and a bull market begins. 1901, 1911, 1921.
2. The second year is a year of a minor bull market, or a rally in a bear market will start at some time.  1902, 1912, 1922, 1932.
3. Starts a bear year, but the rally from the second year may run to March or April before culmination, or a decline from the 2nd year may run down and make bottom in February or March, like 1933.  1903, 1913, 1923.
4. The fourth year is a bear year, but ends the bear cycle and lays the foundation for a bull market.  Compare 1904, 1914.
5. The fifth year is the year of Ascension, and a very strong year for a bull market.  See 1905, 1915, 1925, 1935.
6. The sixth year is a bull year, in which a bull campaign which started in the fourth year ends in the Fall of the year and a fast decline starts.  See 1896, 1906, 1916, 1926.
7. Seven is a bear number and the seventh year is a bear year because 84 months or 840 degrees is 7/8ths of 90.  See 1897, 1907, 1917, but note 1927 was the end of a 60 year cycle, so not much of a decline.
8. The eighth year is a bull year.  Prices start advancing in the 7th year and reach the 90th month in the 8th year.  This is very strong and a big advance usually takes place.  Review 1898, 1908, 1918, 1928.  (2008 did not follow this pattern, which is where a little real estate cycle knowledge was helpful in this instance.)
9. Nine is the highest digit and the ninth year is the strongest of all for the bull markets.  Final bull campaigns culminate in this year after extreme advances and prices start to decline.  Bear markets usually start in September to November at the end of the 9th year and a sharp decline takes place.  See 1869, 1879, 1889, 1899, 1909, 1919 and 1929, the year of the greatest advances, culminating in the fall of that year, followed by a sharp decline.
10. Ten is a bear year.  A rally often runs until March and April; then a severe decline runs to November and December, when a new cycle begins and another rally starts.  See 1910, 1920, 1930.