Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Gold Has Bottomed? What the Cycles Say | Branimir Vojcic

Shorter-term cycles indicate that Gold has formed an interim bottom. 
 
 
The composite line of the five dominant short- and medium-to-longer-term cycles (32, 79, 118, 194 and 1,181 trading days or 46.4, 114.5, 171 and 281 calendar days) projects an upcoming medium-term peak on September 11 (Fri), followed by the next trough on November 16 (Mon). 
 

However, the composite line of the two dominant long-term cycles (1,181 trading days or 4.687 years and 1,832 trading days or 7.27 years) suggests that Gold's correction will continue through late October 2028, followed by a rally extending into the end of November 2030.  

Monday, August 10, 2026

De-Dollarized Payment Rails For African Continental Free Trade Area

On July 20, 2026, the governors of the Central Bank of Egypt and the Central Bank of Eswatini met in Cairo to discuss expanding banking cooperation, Egypt's experience with the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), and the Pan-African Gold Bank initiative already underway with African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank, Cairo, Egypt).
PAPSS enables instant cross-border payments in local currencies through three core processes: instant payment, pre-funding and net settlement. Instant payments eliminate the need to convert into hard currencies and route funds outside Africa, while performing compliance, legal and sanctions checks in real time. This will save African nations an estimated $5 billion annually in Western bank transaction fees.
PAPSS, operated by Afreximbank together with the African Union (AU) and the AfCFTA Secretariat, had by then linked banks across a growing network. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which entered into force on May 30, 2019, and by mid-2026 had been ratified by 49 of 54 signatory states, is the continent-wide free-trade area covering a market of more than 1.4 billion people; PAPSS was developed specifically to support payments and settlement under it. 
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is the flagship project of the African Union's Agenda 2063. It creates a single market of more than 1.4 billion people across the 55 AU member states by liberalizing trade in goods and services, investment, intellectual property, competition, digital trade, and women and youth participation.
In July 2026 the Bank of Central African States joined PAPSS, bringing in the six CEMAC CFA-franc countries and raising the total to 28 nations served by more than 190 commercial banks and fintechs through 16 switches. 
Customer  payments move in local currencies: a payer instructs a bank,  PAPSS performs real-time validation, compliance, and sanctions checks,  and the beneficiary’s bank credits the recipient, typically in about  seven seconds against a 120-second design maximum. Because the credits  are irrevocable, direct participants pre-fund clearing accounts through  their national Real-Time Gross Settlement Systems (RTGS) while indirect  participants obtain liquidity through sponsorship. At 11:00 UTC each  day, PAPSS calculates the multilateral net position of every  participating central bank, settles the local-currency leg through the  central banks' RTGS systems, and sends any residual imbalance as a  hard-currency instruction to Afreximbank, which acts as settlement  agent. The residual step still uses dollars or other convertible  currencies, yet the front end largely bypasses external correspondent  chains and sharply reduces the volume of hard-currency settlement  required.
Separately, on December 29–30, 2025, the Central Bank of Egypt and Afreximbank signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a pan-African gold-bank program intended to formalize gold value chains, strengthen central-bank reserves, and reduce reliance on foreign refining and trading hubs. 
 
A feasibility study for an internationally accredited gold refinery, secure vaulting, and related financial services—potentially located in an Egyptian free-trade zone—was commissioned with McKinsey; by mid-2026 Afreximbank had signaled a $50–100 million commitment toward the refinery, with construction targeted for the end of 2026 and operations in 2027–28. The project remains at the planning stage.
 
From 2012–2022, industrial and semi-industrial gold mining operated in 26+ African countries, with output rising in most. Production nearly doubled in Mali and Burkina Faso and increased fivefold in Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast), while declining elsewhere—most notably in South Africa (180 tons in 2011 to 84 tons in 2022). In 2022, Ghana led with 95.8 tons, followed by South Africa (84), Mali (66.2), and Burkina Faso (57.7).
Parallel developments are linking Africa more closely to Chinese and Hong Kong infrastructure. Afreximbank became a direct participant of China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and Standard Bank the first African commercial bank to join the system; in June 2026, Standard Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) were authorized as the Renminbi Clearing Bank of Africa, covering 19 countries. 
 
Hong Kong's Christopher Hui advanced gold-market memoranda with Laos and exploratory discussions with Ghana, while the Hong Kong Gold Exchange partnered with Alibaba-backed AGTech on a digital trading and clearing platform. Chinese gold imports reached roughly 163 tons in May and 173 tons in June 2026, against official People's Bank of China (PBOC) purchases of about 10 and 15 tons respectively; the difference is absorbed by commercial banks and private demand.

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Iran Appoints Ex-IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezaei to Head Security Council

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has appointed former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Mohsen Rezaei as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council on August 9, according to Iranian state media. Rezaei replaces Mohammad Bagher Zolqadr, who has been named an advisor to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
 
» Full compensation from the US for all damages
and the US withdrawing from the Persian Gulf. «
Iran goes hardline: offence, not defence.
 
Mohsen Rezaei, who commanded the IRGC for more than a decade, is a veteran military and political figure. His appointment places an experienced security official in a key role as Tehran manages its confrontation with Washington.
 
Ali Larijani held Rezaei's post until he was killed in an Israeli strike
 during the US-Israeli attacks on Iran earlier on March 16, 2026.  

The Supreme National Security Council plays a central role in coordinating Iran's national security policy and operates under the authority of the supreme leader. 
» The American presence in the Persian Gulf has been the primary cause of insecurity over the past 50 years. We will consider ending the war only after, first, we have received full compensation from the US for all damages. Second, we must obtain a 100% guarantee for the future, which is not possible without the US withdrawing from the Persian Gulf. «
Mohsen Rezaei, March 16, 2026.

Hamidreza Rajabzadeh was an Iranian religious singer who was kidnapped and had his heart ripped out of his chest while still alive. He was dismembered and parts of his body were sent to his family and workplace—the work of the U$raHell perverts who scream free Iran.

Saturday, August 8, 2026

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator Hits 9.7—Extreme Greed Signals Sell

On August 5 (Wed), BofA's Hartnett Bull & Bear Indicator hit 9.7, up from 9.4 and its highest level since 2021—a strong contrarian sell signal for risk assets (banks, industrials, semis/tech). 

 
The indicator aggregates positioning (hedge funds and long-only managers), equity/bond flows, global equity breadth, and tight credit spreads. Historically, readings over 8 have preceded modest average equity declines of 2-3% over 1-3 months (around 60% hit rate), with occasional larger drawdowns, prompting BofA to recommend rotating toward defensives (stable, less cyclical sectors like consumer staples and often utilities/healthcare).
 

See also:
 
Goldman Sachs' Panic Index—a 2-year rolling percentile of equity-volatility metrics (VIX, skew, ATM IV, term structure)—collapsed from the 90th to 0th percentile in one week, reaching 1.03 in the 2024–26 chart. The plunge signals near-total exhaustion of downside-protection demand after early-2026 fear spikes, with options flows now call-heavy and rising volumes pointing to upside chasing rather than hedging. Yet extreme complacency has historically preceded both sustained rallies and abrupt volatility. Translation: There is no fear. 
Only the dotcom boom pushed US valuations higher.
 
There is a notable negative divergence between the NAAIM Index and the SPX,
similar to February 2025, which preceded a significant decline in the SPX.

COT: More Downside Ahead for DXY | Tom McClellan

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell last week following coordinated US–Japan intervention in the yen. The drop pushed DXY back below the 100.50 support/resistance level, marking the move above that level as a failed breakout. 


Commercial traders of Dollar Index futures responded this week (per COT report data) by increasing their collective net short position. Looking back at other price tops on this chart, you may notice that when commercials do this—adding shorts after a downturn—there is a lot more downturn yet to come for the DXY.
 
Reference:
 
And every other 8-year top tends to be more significant (fatter arrows). 

VIX 80-Day Cycle Low Within Days & Volatility Ready to Break Out | Namzes

The VIX 80-day cycle low is expected within the next few days. August 5 marked day 68, which is slightly early but still within range. The 40-day cycle, shown in the bottom panel, reflects a 2:1 harmonic ratio relative to the 80-day cycle. August options expiration (OpEx, Friday, August 21) should be watched as a potential window for a volatility breakout. Volatility is likely to rise into October, where the next key low in the S&P 500 may form.

Top panel: VIX price + 80-day cycle. Middle: Seasonality/trend + dated cycle lows. Bottom: 40-day cycle oscillator.

The S&P 500's 20-week cycle low likely occurred on July 29 (Wed), with 7,313 now serving as a key daily pivot for any downside. As the VIX cycle approaches its low in the coming days, it is important to monitor the VIX term structure, which is currently reaching extreme contango levels, indicating that 30-day volatility is significantly lower than 3-month volatility. When this ratio approaches and clusters around 0.80, it signals market complacency and often precedes pullbacks in equities.

VIX/VIX3M ratio vs. S&P 500.
 
The VIX/VIX3M ratio, shown inverted in the lower panel for easier comparison against the S&P 500 (in gold), highlights these 0.80 readings. When combined with extreme dispersion and a rapidly declining put/call ratio this week, these conditions point to increasing volatility, which is expected to spike in the second half of August.


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The Slow Demise of France’s Enduring Colonial Currency System in Africa?

There is a currency circulating across 14 African nations. Designed in Paris, printed in France, it required for decades that its users deposit up to half their foreign reserves in the French Treasury. Called the CFA franc (officially Communauté Financière Africaine, i.e. African Financial Community), it has operated continuously since 1945. The same instrument created to control and manage France's colonial possessions in sub-Saharan Africa still functions in many ways today. More than 155 million people use it; 14 formally sovereign nations depend on it. And the debate over whether it represents stability or subjugation has never been louder.

UEMOA + CEMAC + Comoros = CFA franc zone.
 
A country that controls another country's currency controls that economy. France understood this better than almost anyone. While the British pound zone dissolved France held on and the invisible scaffolding linking Paris to Dakar, Abidjan, Yaoundé and Libreville has never been dismantled.

Return to 1945. Europe lies in ruins. France, liberated from Nazi Germany, struggles to feed itself. Inflation spirals; the metropolitan franc loses value weekly. Across the Atlantic the Bretton Woods agreements establish the postwar financial order: the gold-backed dollar as global anchor, every nation required to declare its currency's value to the new IMF. France's shattered economy forces a sharp devaluation of the metropolitan franc against the dollar.
 
West African CFA franc—fiat bills with zero intrinsic value, backed
only by an ECB-mandated fixed exchange rate to the euro.
 
De Gaulle's finance minister Pleven applies different rates to the metropole and the colonies. In France the franc falls hard. In French West Africa, French Equatorial Africa, and the Comoros a new currency is born at a stronger rate: one CFA franc equals 1.7 metropolitan francs. By 1948 the ratio is two to one. The colonies suddenly possess a currency stronger than France's own.

Presented as generosity, the mechanics tell another story. A strong currency in a raw-material exporter that imports finished goods acts as an import subsidy and export tax. It cheapens French manufactures for the colony and makes the colony’s own goods less competitive abroad. From day one the CFA franc's pricing structure channeled African purchasing power toward French industry and quietly strangled the development of competitive local export sectors. Solid Rothschild architecture designed to endure.

A fixed exchange rate set below equilibrium creates excess demand for foreign currency
(Qd > Qs), which the central bank must cover by selling reserves to maintain the peg.
 
And its original name said everything: Colonies Françaises d’Afrique—French Colonies of Africa. No euphemism. Notes were printed then, and still are, in Chamalières by the Banque de France. Four pillars underpinned the system and proved remarkably durable: a fixed exchange rate with the French franc (later the euro) guaranteeing unlimited convertibility by the French Treasury; free capital movement between the CFA zone and France; and the operations account requiring the zone's central banks to deposit a large share of foreign-exchange reserves in the French Treasury.

At founding that share was 100 percent. By 1973 it fell to 65 percent; by 2005 to a 50 percent ceiling. Even at half, 'sovereign nations' handed over half their foreign exchange wealth to a former colonial power in exchange for a guarantee against currency collapse. Defenders cite stability: relatively low inflation compared with much of Africa, insulation from crises that wrecked Zimbabwe or Venezuela. Outside one massive 1994 devaluation the CFA franc has tracked the French franc and then the euro almost lockstep for nearly eighty years. But stability for whom, and at what cost?
Viral 2019 Italian TV clip of Giorgia Meloni (then opposition leader, now Prime Minister) holding a CFA franc note and calling it France's "colonial currency" to exploit resources via seigniorage and export controls.  
Pegged at 655.957 CFA francs to the euro, member states cannot adjust the exchange rate to their own conditions. They cannot devalue to boost exports, expand the money supply in a downturn, or set independent interest rates. Monetary policy—the core tool of any sovereign country—is outsourced to the European Central Bank, which sets policy for Germany, France and the Netherlands, not Senegal, Cameroon or Chad. In 2008 and again during the COVID-19 plandemic, countries with sovereign currencies printed money and cut rates; CFA countries could not.

Economists have long argued the franc is chronically overvalued relative to the productive capacity of its users. Overvaluation makes imports cheap and exports expensive—fine for comprador elites buying luxury goods in Paris, devastating for farmers selling cocoa or cotton against competitors with weaker, flexible currencies. The structural result is a permanent tilt toward importing rather than producing and deep dependence on foreign capital. This is a design feature, not an accident.
 
Olympio, murderedlike Kennedyby the small hat money printers in 1963.
 

Sylvanus Olympio, first president of Togo, was elected in 1961 and immediately pushed to leave the CFA system and establish a national central bank. He saw monetary and political sovereignty as inseparable. On January 13, 1963, less than three years after independence, he was assassinated in a coup led by a French-trained sergeant. The new government proved far more amenable to French interests; Togo remained in the CFA zone. Leaders who challenge French economic control tend to meet violent ends or removal; those who cooperate enjoy long, French-supported tenures.

Thomas Sankara, revolutionary leader and president of Burkina Faso, addressing the United Nations General Assembly in New York on October 4, 1984. His speech remains a definitive manifesto for anti-imperialism, global solidarity, and self-reliance.
Sankara—radical anti-imperialist, pan-Africanist and austere leader
prioritized self-reliance, massive social reforms, and integrity.
Murdered by the small hat money printers in 1987. 

The most iconic case is Thomas Sankara. In 1983, aged 33, he seized power in Upper Volta and renamed it Burkina Faso—"land of upright people." He ran mass vaccination campaigns, planted over ten million trees against desertification, banned female genital mutilation, appointed women to high office, refused air-conditioning, drove a modest Renault 5 and cut official salaries including his own. His greatest offense in Paris's eyes was open challenge to the CFA franc and Françafrique—the web of political, military and economic ties binding former colonies to France. On October 15, 1987 he was assassinated in a coup led by his deputy Blaise Compaoré, who then ruled the country for 27 years and reversed the anti-French course. In April 2022 a Burkinabe military tribunal convicted Compaoré and associates in absentia; Compaoré, living in exile in Ivory Coast, received a life sentence. The tribunal confirmed French agents were in Ouagadougou the day after the coup. Sankara's family formally accused France of masterminding the killing. Macron pledged in 2017 to declassify related documents; they have not been fully released.

Françafrique operates on a larger scale still: French bases, advisers inside ministries, preferential access for French firms to African resources, and the CFA franc as monetary backbone. Comprador elites enjoyed convertibility that let them move wealth to Paris, an overvalued currency that made luxury imports affordable, and French political and military protection. Ordinary citizens faced scarce credit, interest rates dictated by European conditions, import competition that crushed local firms, and capital mobility that functioned largely as a one-way valve outward.

France confronts rising anti-French sentiment in West Africa—Bamako,
Mali, 2020: "France get out" demonstration against French, EU and UN forces. 

By the late 1980s the franc was severely overvalued. Commodity prices—cocoa, coffee, cotton, oil—were falling while the French franc appreciated, dragging the CFA with it. On January 12, 1994 the CFA franc was devalued 50 percent overnight. The decision was taken in Paris, not in any African capital. French Prime Minister Édouard Balladur later confirmed it was done at France's instigation "to help these countries in their development." Overnight the purchasing power of roughly 150 million people was halved. Prices of imported food, medicine and fuel doubled; urban poverty surged; foreign-currency public debt effectively doubled. The cost fell entirely on African citizens who had no vote and no veto. The event laid bare the system's reality: sovereign in name, monetary dependencies in fact.

When France joined the euro in 1999 the CFA franc was pegged at 655.957 to the euro—a rate that still holds. The anchor changed; the dynamics did not. Monetary policy is now set by the European Central Bank for a union of wealthy European states with zero representation or accountability to the African economies bound to it. Notes continue to be printed in Chamalières; until recent reforms the operations accounts still funneled reserves to the French Treasury; French representatives sat on the boards of the BCEAO in Dakar and the BEAC in Yaoundé.

 
By the 2010s a new generation of African intellectuals and leaders challenged the system with growing force. Senegalese economist Ndongo Samba Sylla called the CFA franc "an anachronism requiring orderly elimination." In 2015 Chadian President Idriss Déby declared that a "cord preventing development in Africa" must be severed—everyone knew which cord. In 2019 Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni held up a CFA note on television and accused France of exploitation, an accusation that resonated widely.
 
In December 2019, under pressure, Macron and Ivory Coast's Alassane Ouattara announced reforms in Abidjan: the West African CFA franc would become the Eco; the 50 percent reserve deposit requirement would end; French board seats at the BCEAO would disappear; the operations account would close and reserves return to Dakar. Headlines called it historic. The fine print was more cautious: the fixed euro peg remained, French convertibility guarantee continued, and France retained a backup credit line. The most symbolically offensive features were removed; the macro-economically decisive peg stayed.

Muammar Gaddafi's African gold dinar was a 2009-2011 pan-African initiative to introduce a single, gold-backed currency aimed to replace the US dollar and the French-backed CFA franc across Africa, allowing nations to sell oil and resources for gold to achieve complete financial independence from Western systems. Murdered by the small hat money printers in 2011.
Critics call it rebranding. The name Eco had already been chosen for a broader ECOWAS common currency that would have included Nigeria; a francophone-only Eco complicated that project. The reforms covered only the eight West African states. The six Central African users of the BEAC franc—Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon—still deposit 50 percent of reserves in Paris and still have French board representation. As of today, the Eco has not launched; the latest ECOWAS target of 2027 is viewed with widespread skepticism.

Meanwhile the Sahel transformed. Coups between 2020 and 2023 toppled governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Guinea, each fueled in part by anti-French sentiment over military presence, European and US sponsored Jihadist terrorism, economic extraction and the CFA franc. In 2024 Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger left ECOWAS and formed the landlocked Alliance of Sahel States, explicitly rejecting French influence and discussing exit from the CFA franc toward national or shared Sahelian currencies. Chad and Senegal demanded withdrawal of French troops, Niger the retreat of the French and Americans. 
 
» The slave that cannot carry out his own revolt deserves no pity. «
Ibrahim Traoré, President of Burkina Faso.
 
Senegal's president Bassirou Diomaye Faye and his prime minister Ousmane Sonko campaigned in 2023 on economic sovereignty; Sonko declared in 2025 that the CFA franc is "both a symbolic and an economic problem." The cry "La France dégage" (France, get out!) has echoed from Niamey to Bamako to Ouagadougou to Dakar, encompassing French military bases, mining concessions and, above all, monetary sovereignty. The CFA franc had become the most visible symbol of unfinished decolonization.

» Jub, Jubal, Jubanti. «
(Be upright, act with integrity, and rectify what is crooked.)
Faye, elected president of Senegal in 2024, had expelled French troops by March 2025 and was
elected Chairman of ECOWAS in July 2026; however, Senegal has not left the CFA franc. Hello Eco...

What replaces it remains complicated. Exit without credible alternatives requires building central-bank capacity, reserve management, monetary-policy frameworks and market confidence from scratch. Countries that left earlier—Guinea in 1960, Madagascar and Mauritania in 1973—faced significant turbulence. Yet defenders must confront the system's record: the 14 CFA countries include some of the world's poorest; Niger, Chad, the Central African Republic and Burkina Faso rank near the bottom of the UN Human Development Index; per-capita GDP remains a fraction of the global average. Eighty years of promised stability have not delivered development, poverty reduction or structural transformation. The question is no longer only whether these countries can afford to leave, but whether they can afford to stay.
 
Dual world map showing each country's largest trading partner (exports + imports) in 2000 vs. 2024 among the US, EU, and China. In 2000, the US led most of the Americas, parts of Asia-Pacific, and some of Africa; the EU dominated Europe, much of Africa and Asia, and parts of South America; China led only a few smaller economies (e.g., Myanmar, Mongolia, North Korea, Oman, Sudan, Yemen). By 2024, China dominates nearly all of Asia, much of Africa, and most of South America; the US retains North America and select South American countries; the EU leads much of Europe and nearby regions but with reduced global reach. China’s total trade rose from $474B (2000) to $6.2T (2024), surpassing both the US and EU.
Why would-should-could all these countries remain in the CFA franc zone? 

A monetary system whose notes are printed in France, whose reserves have historically been held in the French Treasury, whose exchange rate is set by a European institution, and in which the actual users long had no meaningful say, was designed under colonialism, preserved through co-optation, coercion and violence, and maintained by institutional inertia and the complicity of local comprador elites who benefit. 
 
At no point in history has the CFA franc been closer to its demise, just coinciding with the scheduled 2027 rollout of the
Eco—the proposed new ECOWAS common currency, directly pegged to the Euro. Again. One couldn't make this up.
And it just sounds, looks, and smells as fantastic and promising as the Euro...
 
The CFA franc is a monument to the idea that independence can be granted with one hand while economic sovereignty is withheld with the other. The most effective control is not always exercised with guns and borders; sometimes it is exercised with exchange rates, reserve requirements and banknotes printed thousands of kilometers from the pockets that carry them.
 
Whether or when the CFA franc system collapses, adapts once more as the Eco, national sovereign currencies, or something else remains open. What is clear is that a reckoning is already under way across the Sahel and beyond. A new generation asks the question Sankara asked four decades ago: "If a nation does not control its own money, can it truly call itself free?"
 

Thursday, August 6, 2026

S&P 500 Hits New ATH as Smart Money Starts Bailing

With the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high in early August 2026, a pronounced contrarian bearish divergence has emerged among market participants. Retail "Dumb Money" Confidence (red line in the chart below) has surged from neutral into optimistic territory at 0.61, while institutional "Smart Money" Confidence (blue line) has dropped into pessimistic territory at 0.31
 
Retail sentiment tilts euphoric while institutional positioning turns defensive.
 
Historically, the most dangerous periods for stocks are when dumb money is high and smart money is low at the same time the index is elevated. It does not mean an immediate crash is guaranteed, but it raises the odds of a meaningful pullback or at least a period of weaker returns ahead. 
 
An alternative experimental S&P 500 composite cycle
projection points to a mid-October major low.

However, having likely printed a nominal 20-week Hurst cycle low on June 30 (17.29 weeks / 121 CD off the late-March 40-week trough), the S&P remains in the rising phase of its second 20-week sub-cycle—part of a broader 40-week (9-month) and 18-month structure targeting a major low in late November (± 8 weeks).
 
Static projection based on the latest 20-week cycle period (17.29 weeks / 121 CD).
 
However, having likely printed a nominal 20-week Hurst cycle low on June 30 (17.29 weeks / 121 CD off the late-March 40-week trough), the S&P remains in the rising phase of its second 20-week sub-cycle—part of a broader 40-week (9-month) and 18-month structure targeting a major low in late November (± 8 weeks).
 
The current rise suggests to extend into early September—
interrupted by the 5- and 10-day cycle higher lows of August 5–6 (Wed-Thu) and August 11–12 (Tue-Wed) and a 20-day cycle low around August 24 -28 (Mon-fri)—before yielding a late-September 80-day (10-week) cycle trough. A secondary rally into mid-October—capped below the September peak—is then likely to trigger the final decline into the primary 40-week and 18-month cycle trough in November.
 

 
 
Average S&P 500 total-return path (indexed to 100 on midterm Election Day) for all midterm years since 1970 (1970–2022), spanning roughly ±6 months. X-axis centers on Election Day (first Tuesday in November); y-axis tracks cumulative total return. The average line rises in the final ~22 trading days before the election (= October 2, 2026) and continues higher afterward (+14.1% average in the following six months). A separate “Lost Control” series (party loses presidential trifecta) lags the broader average post-election (+10.4% vs. +16.1%).
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