Sunday, November 29, 2015

SPX vs Jupiter-Saturn Cycle


Enantiodromia In Russian Politics

Alexander Dugin (Nov 27, 2015) - In the world there is one major power, a few minor powers, and many passive objects in someone else's game, with microscopic local interests. They are called "sovereign states" and most of them are represented in the UN. But today such formal “sovereignty” is fictitious and in name only. Sovereignty is a measure of power. No power - no sovereignty. According to American political scientist S. Krasner: "Sovereignty is organized hypocrisy". This is truth. 

Power is distributed hierarchically in the world. At the top of the pyramid of powers is the United States. It is served by a number of influential, sometimes obstinate, but always loyal vassals: the EU, Japan, Turkey, as well as distinctive proxies in the Islamic world: Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Pakistan. The next countries in the scale of power are those who are able to effectively compete in some areas with the United States. They belong to the "second world" (not the first, but not the third): this is the BRICS countries and others like them. Brazil (collectively, Latin America), Russia, India, China and South Africa (collectively, Trans-Saharan Africa in General). Potentially it is possible that this list can include some of the Islamic powers, seeking to be independent from the USA as much as possible. All of the other countries in the world are irrelevant and only get underfoot, every time adjoining to someone who is stronger in each particular local case. They are the pretext for sorting things out between the powers of the first and second degree, a kind of Gastarbeitern of world politics. Now the most important thing. The structure of the first power (HERE)

Inquiry From The Free Market Fish Pond


Friday, November 27, 2015

Soybeans - Time and Price Near Major Low

Up-swings in the 30 Year Long-Term Commodity Cycle last for about 10 years, down-swings 20 years. Soybeans topped in this cycle in 2012 and
should decline into 2030. On a medium-term scale the average advance lasts 29 months, declines 16 months. Soybeans have been declining 38
months from the top, losing 53% of the value. The swing-chart shows that declines of 50% + are followed by rallies of 80% +. A 7 year
low-to-low cycle also points to January 2016. A likely price target would be 809, the 0.707 Fibonacci retracement level. If this is correct,
Soybeans should move back up to 1,418 +.

Thursday, November 26, 2015

NATO Opens Another Front Against Russia in Crimea

SouthFront.org (Nov 26, 2015) - [NATO, Turkey and Ukraine] have made a strike at another front. As result of a terrorism act near the border with Russia, the four main transmission lines between Ukraine and Crimea were blown up. About 1,7 million people in Crimea are cut from the power supplies. Some experts believe that the terrorism act was conducted by Turkish intelligence services in concurrence with the US. Formally, the terrorism act was made by Crimea Tatar extremists and the “Right Sector” terrorist group. The Crimea’s blackout could be described as a clear war provocation against Russia. At the moment, we could observe an escalation in a diplomatic sphere and military build up of the all sides involved in the Syrian crisis. If the US and its allies continue their provocative and shallow policy, there is a serious threat of an open military escalation in the region (see also HERE).

SPX vs 7th Years of Presidents Cycle - Seasonality After Thanksgiving

Jeff Hirsch (Nov 25, 2015) - Now that Thanksgiving is upon us and early December gains tend to fade mid-month,
consider closing out those short term longs into strength today, Friday and next week.
Credits: Chris Carolan

SPX vs Consumer Confidence - Long Term Sell Signal

Credits: Nautilus Research

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Jack Gillen SUN CIT = Nov 25 (Wed) 20:00 EST

According to Jack Gillen's forecasting theory on solar turns the stock markets should terminate the current sideways-to-down correction
period to turn up again when the SUN passes over 3°SAG = Nov 25 (Wed) 20:00. The Moon casts a positive aspect today
at 13:00 (23° TAU), another positive one is due around 17:30 (27°TAU). However, also considerthis HERE + HERE
also HERE

Bradley Indices | Geocentric + Heliocentric | 2016

Arch Crawford & Larry Pesavento (2002) - The Bradley model, described by Donald Bradley in his 1948 booklet ‘Stock Market Predictions’, has gained quite a bit of notoriety in recent years because of its incredible accuracy. Although the forecasts repeat with stunning regularity, it should not be construed as the “Holy Grail”. Long-term studies emphasize that it is a probability not a certainty. With that caveat, we will examine Bradley’s sidereal potential line as it takes into consideration every on of the classical Ptolemic harmonic angles between any 2 planet pairs.

Enlarge

Its strength and its weakness is that some years, it will precisely point up Highs, Lows and Turning dates for the Major Stock Market Indices, and other years will seem a random mishmash of useless squiggles. The Turning Dates are the most reliable portion of the Bradley, Direction, somewhat less so, and Amount of Move, least reliable. Sometimes a calculated High will, in reality, come about at a Low in stock prices and vice versa. In other words, it’s something we should keep our eyes on, but not something to Bet the Farm on, especially in a vacuum as in the absence of other technical confirmation from real-time data generated by the actual movements of prices on Wall Street. As Bradley so aptly described the model: “At no time must the reader gain the impression that a siderograph, as such, is a prediction of what the stock market will actually do. Nevertheless, observation proves that basic reversals in collective attitudes, clearly predicted by the line, are inevitably mirrored in stock averages. A limitation of the siderograph is that it cannot be construed as a forecast of secular trend. In statistical terminology, “lines of regression” fitted to the market course and to the potential should not be expected to completely agree, for reasons obvious to everybody with keen business sense or commercial training. The siderograph may be depended upon, though, to reward its analyst with foreknowledge of coming conditions in general, so that the non-psychological factors may be evaluated accordingly. By this we mean that the potential will afford one with clues as to how the mass mind will “take” the other mechanical or governmental vicissitudes affecting high finance.”

Enlarge

Not included in Bradley’s work are Syzgies (New & Full Moons) and their special cases, the Eclipses, Declination Factors (North - South positions, except for Mars & Venus), Heliocentric alignments and Large Configurations composed of Multiple Harmonic Interactions among several planets, simultaneously. When the Force is extra-ordinarily perturbed by any of these other factors, the Bradley projection can go totally away (see also HERE).

Turn days in the Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices 2016:


2015-11-25 (Wed)
Low (geo)
2015-11-06 (Fri)
High (helio)
2015-12-07 (Mon)
Low (helio)
2015-12-11 (Fri)
High (geo)
2015-12-12 (Sat)
High (helio)
2015-12-20 (Sun)
Low (geo)
2015-12-25 (Fri)
High (geo)
2016-01-04 (Mon)
Low (helio)
2016-01-06 (Wed)
Low (geo)
2016-01-13 (Wed)
High (geo + helio)
2016-01-18 (Mon)
Low (geo)
2016-01-19 (Tue)
Low (helio)
2016-02-03 (Wed)
High (helio)
2016-02-05 (Fri)
High (geo)
2016-02-17 (Wed)
Low (helio)
2016-02-19 (Fri)
Low (geo)
2016-02-24 (Wed)
High (geo)
2016-02-25 (Thu)
High (helio)
2016-03-10 (Thu)
Low (geo)
2016-03-12 (Sat)
Low (helio)
2016-03-25 (Fri)
High (geo)
2016-03-26 (Sat)
High (helio)
2016-04-04 (Mon)
Low (geo + helio)
2016-04-13 (Wed)
High (geo + helio)
2016-04-22 (Fri)
Low (geo + helio)
2016-05-10 (Tue)
High (geo + helio)
2016-06-02 (Thu)
Low (geo + helio)
2016-06-14 (Tue)
High (geo + helio)
2016-06-18 (Sat)
Low (geo + helio)
2016-07-05 (Tue)
High (geo + helio)
2016-07-11 (Mon)
Low (geo + helio)
2016-07-18 (Mon)
High (geo + helio)
2016-08-08 (Mon)
Low (helio)
2016-08-10 (Wed)
Low (geo)
2016-08-18 (Thu)
High (geo + helio)
2016-09-06 (Tue)
Low (geo)
2016-09-09 (Fri)
High (geo)
2016-09-18 (Sun)
Low (geo + helio)
2016-09-29 (Thu)
High (geo)
2016-09-30 (Fri)
High (helio)
2016-10-17 (Mon)
Low (helio)
2016-10-18 (Tue)
Low (geo)
2016-11-01 (Tue)
High (helio)
2016-11-03 (Thu)
High (geo)
2016-11-13 (Sun)
Low (helio)
2016-11-15 (Tue)
Low (geo)
2016-11-24 (Thu)
High (helio)
2016-11-25 (Fri)
High (geo)
2016-11-28 (Mon)
Low (geo)
2016-11-29 (Tue)
Low (helio)
2016-12-09 (Fri)
High (geo)
2016-12-10 (Sat)
High (helio)
2016-12-14 (Wed)
Low (geo)
2016-12-15 (Thu)
Low (helio)
2016-12-28 (Wed)
High (geo + helio)
2017-01-07 (Sat)
Low (geo)
2017-01-16 (Mon)
Low (helio)
2017-01-20 (Fri)
High (geo)
2017-01-23 (Mon)
High (helio)
2017-01-28 (Sat)
Low (geo + helio)

Cosmic Cluster Days in December 2015 - January 2016

A signal is triggered when the composite line breaks above or below the Average Cosmic Noise Channel.
Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) are: Nov 28 (Sat), Dec 02 (Wed), Dec 05 (Sat), Dec 15 (Tue), Dec 17 (Thu), Dec 18 (Fri), Jan 02 (Sat),
Jan 03 (Sun), Jan 14 (Thu), Jan 18 (Mon), Jan 23 (Sat), Jan 24 (Sun), Feb 07 (Sun).
Previous CCDs are
HERE

SoLunar Map December 2015 - January 2016

This chart depicts the solunar bias for short-term movements of stock indices two months ahead. The markets are certainly influenced
also by other planetary forces - especially longer-term - but a 3-5 day short-term rhythm and pattern is governed by the solunar forces
(= 4 highs and 4 lows per lunar month). The solunar forces are a composite of Sun-Moon angles, apogee, perigee, and lunar declination,
components responsible for why there is no simple and reliable polarity of the market associated with the New Moon and Full Moon alone.
A Low in the SoLunar Map frequently is a High in the stock market and vice versa. Inversions occur, and if so, they should occur only
once every 4 lunar months around a New Moon (max +/- 7 days). The solunar rhythm is frequently disturbed by (1.) The FED, and (2.) by
sudden solar activity, altering the geomagnetic field, and hence the mass mood. This can result in the skip and/or inversion of pivots
in the SoLunar Map. An increasing number of sunspots and flares have usually a negative influence on the stock market some 48 hours later,
and vice versa (Ap values > 10 are usually short-term negative). A rising blue line in the SoLunar Map means the bias for the market is
side-ways-to-up, and vice versa. Highs and lows in the SoLunar Map also may coincide with the start and termination of complex, side-ways
correction patterns like zig-zags, triangles or flags. Upcoming turn-days are: Nov 30 (Mon), Dec 03 (Thu), Dec 07 (Mon), Dec 11 (Fri),
Dec 14 (Mon), Dec 18 (Fri), Dec 22 (Tue), Dec 25 (Fri), Dec 29 (Tue), Jan 02 (Sat), Jan 05 (Tue), Jan 09 (Sat), Jan 13 (Wed), Jan 17 (Sun),
Jan 20 (Wed), Jan 24 (Sun), Jan 28 (Thu), Feb 01 (Mon). Cross check these dates with the Cosmic Cluster Days, the Bradley Indices, and
Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees. Previous SoLunar Maps HERE
Look back for clues at previous turns and what happened in the market 118 CD ago [= 4 lunar months],
354 CD ago [= 1 lunar year], 1,416 CD ago [= 4 lunar years] ago, and 1 Metonic Cycle ago (19 Solar Years = 235 lunar months  = 6,940 CD).
Please note: The market currently follows the inverted Delta mode: Nov 30 (Mon) = market low, Dec 03 (Thu) = market high, etc.
This may change again.

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Fractional-Reserve Banking Pure Fraud

HERE
Jeff Nielson (Nov 23, 2015) - What is euphemistically called “fractional-reserve banking” is obvious fraud, and obvious crime. By its very definition; it transforms the banking sector of an economy into a leveraged Ponzi-scheme [...] We have no need to construct any hypothetical extremes, however, when we already have real-life insanity, in our current monetary/regulatory framework. Here it is important to note that in order to conceal the fraud, crime, and insanity of our present system to the greatest degree possible, the bankers hide their dirty deeds within their own convoluted jargon (HERE)

NATO's Loose Cannon Erdoğan Attacks Russia

Turkish F-16s Shoot Down Russian Sukhoi Su-24 Warplane (HERE)
The Russian jet crashed in the mountainous Jabal Turkmen area of
Latakia, where air strikes and fighting between rebel terrorists and
Syrian government forces were reported earlier on Tuesday. The Kremlin
recommended not jumping to conclusions. NATO is to hold an urgent meeting
to discuss the downing.
The ES futures dipped 1%.
European, Turkish and Russian markets plunged after confirmation that Turkey had shot down a Russian jet near its border with Syria and Moscow warning Ankara of "serious consequences".
 

Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul 100 was down almost four percent after Russian President Vladimir Putin called Ankara's action a “stab in the back made by accomplices of the terrorists.” He also warned Turkey of “very serious consequences” for relations.

The Russian stock market also fell on the news from Syria. As of 6:00pm MSK, the ruble-traded MICEX index was down 3.30 percent, while the dollar-denominated RTS index fell 3.56 percent. On Monday, the MICEX skyrocketed to 1,865 points, its highest level in seven years.


The crisis also affected European stock markets. London's FTSE was down 1.19 percent as of 3:00pm GMT. The markets in France and Germany were losing 1.90 and 1.42 percent, respectively.


The Turkish lira is the worst performer among the currencies. As of 3:00pm GMT the lira was down 0.87 percent against the US dollar.


The downing of a Russian jet fighter over Syria’s airspace was undertaken by Turkey in consultation with Washington and Brussels. Turkey did not take this decision without getting the greenlight from the Pentagon. Is this an act of revenge against Russia for bombing the US-sponsored Islamic State in Syria? The unspoken truth is that Russia is undermining US-NATO’s ground operations inside Syria. The latter are made up of various Al Qaeda affiliated formations which de facto constitute the foot-soldiers of the Western alliance. These ISIS and Al Nusrah rebel forces are in turn led by intelligence operatives and Western special forces, many of whom are deployed by private mercenary companies on contract to US-NATO (see also HERE + HERE).

Monday, November 23, 2015

One Year Is Not A Trend - Afghan Opium Production Decrease

The total area under opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan was estimated to be 183,000 hectares (163,000-202,000) in 2015, which represents a 19% decrease from 2014. Area under opium poppy cultivation has decreased for the first time since 2009 and is at its fourth highest level since the beginning of estimations in 1994; higher levels have been estimated in 2007, 2013 and 2014 (HERE). The decline is largely due, it seems, to natural causes (HERE) – crop failure in the traditional opium-growing heartland of the south – and market fluctuation, rather than anything the government or outside agencies have done. Moreover, the trend was bucked in areas of the north and west, where farmers, especially those living in insecure areas, have been putting more land under poppy cultivation.  
That lower yield was seen even in Kandahar where traders had distributed genetically-modified poppy seeds to farmers just before the planting season (in parts of Kandahar and Helmand poppy is planted twice a year). These seeds were supposed to boost the yield and shorten the growth cycle of the plants. The seeds originate in China where legal opium poppy cultivation is undertaken for pharmaceutical use, as is the case in over a dozen countries. “The genetically modified seeds shorten the growth cycle of the plant – to one to two months, instead of five to six months.” (HERE). However, 90 per cent of world illicit opiates are still produced in Afghanistan (opium and its derivatives morphine and heroin). Half of the Afghan opium is converted into heroin or morphine within Afghanistan. In 2014 the GDP of Afghanistan was US$ 21.2 billion, while the gross value of the Afghan opiate economy was estimated to be US$ 2.84 billion (US$ 3.1 billion in 2013). This value represents all income generated by the opium production that is believed to have remained in Afghanistan (HERE).