Monday, December 15, 2014

DJIA 2014 vs 1997

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.
For the methodology see HERE
www.sentimentrader.com

The Stock Trader's Almanac Blog presented December’s typical seasonal pattern pointing to a bottom in stocks this week, possibly Monday, followed by a strong up day and then a nice rally.

www.stocktradersalmanac.com

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Tom McClellan: Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for DJIA

Tom McClellan - Chart In Focus (December 11, 2014)

Tom McClellan recently presented a 10-year leading indication relationship between oil prices and the stock market, as shown in the above chart. The current oil price slide says that sometime around 2024 some type of “echo” in stock prices from this year’s oil price drop can be expected. 

Stock prices echoing oil price movements with a 10-year lag has “worked” for over 100 years and there is enough evidence to accept it, even if we cannot explain it. For now, the message of this leading indication is that the oil price rally from 1998 to 2008 has yet to see the full extent of its echo during the 2009-2018 period. While the current dip in oil prices is going to be bad for stock prices about 10 years from now, it is not really a problem for stock prices in real time. 

The following chart zooms into this correlation between the S&P500 and the Crude Oil Price shifted 10 years into the future and suggests the S&P500 would continue moving down next week, then up into end of December before forming a major low around January 6. Another rally into early July - with a correction from around March 20 to April 24 - should follow.


2014 is the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and mid-term years are historically some of the worst. However, 2015 - the 3rd year - is the pre-election year and historically the best of the 4-Year Presidential Cycle. Additionally the 5th year of the Decennial Cycle promises to be a strong up year for stocks with a top in late July or early August 2015 (see also HERE).

www.TheChartStore.com

Oscar Carboni (12/15/2014): The Repricing of Crude Oil vs Dollar Index + Stocks keep Rising = No Crash!

The seasonal pattern of Crude Oil itself has a bottoming period between early December and mid February 2015.

www.mrci.com



Monday, November 24, 2014

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices 2015

This astro-forecasting tool was developed by Donald Bradley and published in 1947 in a booklet titled Stock Market Prediction. On the book-cover Bradley coined his tool the ‘Planetary Barometer’ and inside the book the ‘Siderograph’. Today it is simply called the ‘Bradley Index’. 






















There are two versions of the index, a geocentric and a heliocentric one. Both attempt to forecast major and minor changes in the trend in stock markets indices. The Bradley Indices do not forecast highs or lows. Simply changes in the trend or non-directional turning-points. Donald Bradley wrote: 
[...] There are many [other] cycles affecting man with causes outside our immediate world. Well known among these is the electromagnetic cycle in biology which is caused by the relationship of the sun and the moon. Even tadpoles are seriously affected by this soli-lunar cycle which incidentially proves the wisdom of the oft-ridiculed practice of planting under various circumstances of the moon in the sky. What stimulates and pacifies the pollywog stimulates and pacifies the human being periodically.
“[...] At no time must the reader gain the impression that a Siderograph, as such, is a prediction of what the stock market will actually do. Nevertheless, observation proves that basic reversals in collective attitudes, clearly predicted by the line, are inevitably mirrored in stock averages.
(See also HERE)

[Eastern Standard Time (EST) -0500 UTC] 

Geocentric Bradley Index 2015
2014-11-20 (Thu) = Major Low
2014-12-09 (Tue) = High
2014-12-26 (Fri) = Low
2015-02-16 (Mon) = @ 0
2015-03-06 (Fri) = High
2015-03-11 (Wed) = Low
2015-04-03 (Fri) = High
2015-04-14 (Tue) = Low
2015-04-25 (Sat) = High
2015-05-04 (Mon) = Low
2015-05-10 (Sun) = High
2015-05-22 (Fri) = Low
2015-06-09 (Tue) = Major High
2015-06-20 (Sat) = Low
2015-06-28 (Sun) = High
2015-07-16 (Thu) = Low
2015-07-23 (Thu) = High
2015-07-29 (Wed) = Low
2015-08-03 (Mon) = High
2015-08-27 (Thu) = Low
2015-09-05 (Sat) = High
2015-10-01 (Thu) = @ 0
2015-10-09 (Fri) = Low
2015-10-26 (Mon) = @ 0
2015-11-08 (Sun) = High
2015-11-16 (Mon) = @ 0
2015-11-25 (Wed) = Low
2015-12-11 (Fri) = High
2015-12-20 (Sun) = Low
2015-12-25 (Fri) = High
2016-01-06 (Wed) = Low
2016-01-13 (Wed) = High
2016-01-18 (Mon) = Low
 
Heliocentric Bradley Index 2015
2014-11-22 (Sat) = Major Low     
2014-12-09 (Tue) = High   
2014-12-26 (Fri) = Low     
2015-02-10 (Tue) = @ 0
2015-03-04 (Wed) = High  
2015-03-12 (Thu) = Low    
2015-04-03 (Fri) = High     
2015-04-12 (Sun) = Low    
2015-04-24 (Fri) = High     
2015-05-04 (Mon) = Low   
2015-05-11 (Mon) = High  
2015-05-20 (Wed) = Low   
2015-06-09 (Tue) = Major High   
2015-06-21 (Sun) = Low    
2015-06-27 (Sat) = High    
2015-07-17 (Fri) = Low     
2015-07-21 (Tue) = High   
2015-07-30 (Thu) = Low    
2015-08-03 (Mon) = High  
2015-08-23 (Sun) = Low    
2015-09-03 (Thu) = High   
2015-09-24 (Thu) = Low    
2015-09-29 (Tue) = High   
2015-10-08 (Thu) = Low    
2015-11-06 (Fri) = High
2015-11-17 (Tue) = @ 0     
2015-12-07 (Mon) = Low   
2015-12-12 (Sat) = High    
2016-01-04 (Mon) = Low   
2016-01-13 (Wed) = High  
2016-01-19 (Tue) = Low    
 
Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices 2015
2014-11-20 (Thu) = Major Low (geo)
2014-11-22 (Sat) = Major Low (helio)   
2014-12-09 (Tue) = High (geo + helio)   
2014-12-26 (Fri) = Low (geo + helio)     
2015-02-10 (Tue) = @ 0 (helio)
2015-02-16 (Mon) = @ 0 (geo)
2015-03-04 (Wed) = High (helio)
2015-03-06 (Fri) = High (geo)
2015-03-11 (Wed) = Low (geo)
2015-03-12 (Thu) = Low (helio)   
2015-04-03 (Fri) = High (geo + helio)    
2015-04-12 (Sun) = Low (helio)   
2015-04-14 (Tue) = Low (geo)
2015-04-24 (Fri) = High (helio)    
2015-04-25 (Sat) = High (geo)
2015-05-04 (Mon) = Low (geo + helio)  
2015-05-10 (Sun) = High (geo)
2015-05-11 (Mon) = High (helio)
2015-05-20 (Wed) = Low (helio)  
2015-05-22 (Fri) = Low (geo)
2015-06-09 (Tue) = Major High (geo + helio)   
2015-06-20 (Sat) = Low (geo)
2015-06-21 (Sun) = Low (helio)   
2015-06-27 (Sat) = High (helio)   
2015-06-28 (Sun) = High (geo)
2015-07-16 (Thu) = Low (geo)
2015-07-17 (Fri) = Low (helio)    
2015-07-21 (Tue) = High (helio)  
2015-07-23 (Thu) = High (geo)
2015-07-29 (Wed) = Low (geo)
2015-07-30 (Thu) = Low (helio)   
2015-08-03 (Mon) = High (geo + helio)  
2015-08-23 (Sun) = Low (helio)   
2015-08-27 (Thu) = Low (geo)
2015-09-03 (Thu) = High (helio)  
2015-09-05 (Sat) = High (geo)
2015-09-24 (Thu) = Low (helio)   
2015-09-29 (Tue) = High (helio)  
2015-10-01 (Thu) = @ 0 (geo)
2015-10-08 (Thu) = Low (helio)   
2015-10-09 (Fri) = Low (geo)
2015-10-26 (Mon) = @ 0 (geo)
2015-11-06 (Fri) = High (helio)
2015-11-08 (Sun) = High (geo)
2015-11-16 (Mon) = @ 0 (geo)
2015-11-17 (Tue) = @ 0 (helio)    
2015-11-25 (Wed) = Low (geo)
2015-12-07 (Mon) = Low (helio)  
2015-12-11 (Fri) = High (geo)
2015-12-12 (Sat) = High (helio)   
2015-12-20 (Sun) = Low (geo)
2015-12-25 (Fri) = High (geo)
2016-01-04 (Mon) = Low (helio)  
2016-01-06 (Wed) = Low (geo)
2016-01-13 (Wed) = High (geo + helio)  
2016-01-18 (Mon) = Low (geo)
2016-01-19 (Tue) = Low (helio)

Sunday, November 9, 2014

2015 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA

HERE & HERE
Lance Roberts @ www.streettalklive.com
TheChartStore.com




























Since 1834 the U.S.-stock market has been positive 12 out of 18 times in the 4th year of every decade and the 5th year was by far the best year of the Decennial Pattern. The Dow Jones Industrial Average started in 1895 and since then 11 of the last 12 5th years were up and averaged a return of almost 22%. The exception from the pattern was 2005 when the DJIA lost 0.61%.

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

AR12192 - The Biggest Sunspot in Two Solar Cycles

HERE
Measuring 130,000 kilometers wide, AR12192 is the biggest sunspot in two solar cycles. 

It first appeared on the Earth-facing side of the sun on October 16, 2014 and produced a X.1-class flare three days later. The active solar region already has produced 137 C and M-class flares including this X1 flare. AR 12192 rotated onto the far side of the sun on October 30, 2014. 

HERE



However as it evolves a new version of it rotating back into view in ten days. AR 12192 is also unusual in that it hasn't produced any noteworthy coronal mass ejections, which usually spit billions of tonnes of solar material into space. 
HERE


HERE

HERE

In the chart at left the current SC 24 is shown in red, the mean of the previous 23 cycles is depicted by the blue curve, and the current cycle SC 24 strongly resembles SC 1, which is shown by the black curve. The current cycle resembles SC 1, and should it continue to behave like SC 1, a trailing off of activity cannot be anticipated anytime soon. Indications, however, do point to a longer than normal cycle. 





























HERE










The variation in the Sun's motion about the Center of Mass is characterized by a periodicity of 178.770 years: Every 16 loops about the barycenter the Sun repeats a very similar path. The slight time derivative or torque to this 178.770 year cycle, a time dependant periodic function of +/- 1.05 years is called the torque cycle, determined by nine subsequent synodic periods of Jupiter and Saturn (9 * 19.858 years = 178.720 years) and used by Theodor Landscheidt to forecast sunspot cycles. The projection of this 178.72 Year Cycle (+/- 1.05 years) from the peak of SSC #8 in March 1837 suggests the peak of the current SSC #24 is still ahead of us and would occur in 2015-2016.
HERE
 

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

The Birth of BABA

HERE
On September 19 the China-based e-commerce giant Alibaba performed the largest IPO in U.S. history: 

Alibaba (symbol:BABA) was collecting $ 21.8 billion - more than Google, Facebook, and Twitter combined (HERE). 

HERE
Alibaba's consumer-to-consumer portal Taobao, similar to eBay.com, features nearly a billion products and is one of the 20 most-visited websites globally. The Group's websites accounted for over 60% of the parcels delivered in China by March 2013, and 80% of the nation's online sales by September 2014. Alipay, an online payment escrow service, accounts for roughly half of all online payment transactions within China. 

After some delays matching the huge volume of buy and sell orders, the first trade of Alibaba took place at 11.54 a.m. (HERE).

HERE

















HERE
















HERE

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

André Barbault's Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War

American jets hit targets in Syria on Tuesday, September 23rd, 2014, in the US-led fight against Islamic State. Although the US has not declared war since 1942, this is the seventh country that Barack Obama, the holder of the Nobel Peace Prize, has bombed in as many years (more HERE & HERE & HERE).

US Aggression Drags World into Age of Global Anarchy: After years of condemning the Syrian government's war against extremists at the cost of the civilian population, the US began launching air and missile strikes against "extremists" at the cost of Syria's civilian population. Mind-bending hypocrisy and the utter circumvention of the very "international law" the US claims to be chief arbiter over marks a dangerous leap toward global anarchy.

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Gold - Chart Patterns in Different Currencies

HERE

HERE
HERE







Tom McClellan: The price bottom associated with gold's 13-1/2 month cycle was ideally due in July 2014.

Thursday, July 3, 2014

July 12, 2014 = Mercury’s Maximum Western Elongation + SuperMoon

Of all the planets Mercury is the smallest and closest to the Sun, and has a fast orbital period of 88 Earth days on average. Despite the small size and the slow 59-day-long rotation, Mercury has a significant magnetic field, strong enough to deflect the solar wind and to create a magnetosphere that can trap solar wind plasma. Mercury was a Roman god who travelled between the worlds of gods, humans and the dead. In astrology Mercury is generally associated with mental activities and faculties of the mind, and in astrofinance Mercury is the planet of trading, commerce, and intellect. However, seen from Earth, Mercury’s orbit around the Sun is 116 days on average (+/- 32 days). Also seen from Earth, it reaches a maximum Eastern and a maximum western elongation. These moments frequently coincide with a changes in trend in financial markets (see also HERE). 


On July 12, 2014 Mercury will reach the maximum western elongation on its orbit (HERE). On the same day there will be a SuperMoon (HERE) making a series of aspects to Pluto, Uranus, Saturn, Mars and Jupiter between July 11-12. This should have at least some short-term impact on the financial markets. On July 15 (Tue) both the geocentric and heliocentric Bradley Indices are at their highs of the year 2014 (HERE). Saturn is the Lord of Karma, and after 150 days of retrograde motion, will station direct on July 20 (Sun). Uranus is the Lord of the unpredictable, revolution, and progression and will turn retrograde the next day, July 21 (Mon). Ray Merriman remarks on this period: "Equity markets are prone to upheavals during such bouts of cosmic thunder."


Wednesday, June 18, 2014

VIX nearing the 2006 Low























Modern Money Mechanics | The Alchemy of Neo-Feudalism

"Modern Money Mechanics" was a booklet published
and distributed by the Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago, originally written by Dorothy M. Nichols
in May 1961. Described as a "workbook on bank re-
serves and deposit expansion", the text offers a
detailed description of the basic process of money
creation out of absolutely nothing in today’s glo-
bally established fractional reserve banking schemes
such as the Federal Reserve System and the European
Central Bank (see also HERE).
Most academic texts teach that money is created first by someone making a deposit and then the bank waits for someone to come along and borrow it. 

However, that is not true: Modern Money Mechanics explains how money is created the instant it is borrowed. In other words, debt creates money. All the so called ‘Western’ governments create bonds (= public debt), give them to private bankster-cartels called ‘independent central banks’ or 'commercial banks' which use that debt to create money. There is no other value attached to it. It is the act of borrowing which causes it to spring into existence. Also all other banks are creating money based on a borrower’s promise to pay (the IOU = I Owe You). They create money by ‘monetizing’ the public and private debts of businesses and individuals.

In his book ‘The Creature from Jekyll IslandG. Edward Griffin elaborates on this in the example of the US:

“The entire function of this machine is to convert debt into money.  It’s just that simple.  First, the Fed takes all the government bonds which the public does not buy and writes a check to Congress in exchange for them.  (It acquires other debt obligations as well, but government bonds comprise most of its inventory.) There is no money to back up this check. These fiat dollars are created on the spot for that purpose. By calling those bonds “reserves,” the Fed then uses them as the base for creating 9 additional dollars for every dollar created for the bonds themselves. The money created for the bonds is spent by the government, whereas the money created on top of those bonds is the source of all the bank loans made to the nation’s businesses and individuals. The result of this process is the same as creating money on a printing press, but the illusion is based on an accounting trick rather than a printing trick. 


Alain Soral explaining the root of the matter in two
minutes and calling for regime change (HERE & HERE).
The bottom line is that Congress and the banking cartel have entered into a partnership in which the cartel has the privilege of collecting interest on money which it creates out of nothing, a perpetual override on money which it creates out of nothing, a perpetual override on every American dollar that exists in the world. Congress, on the other hand, has access to unlimited funding without having to tell the voters their taxes are being raised through the process of inflation. If you understand this paragraph, you understand the Federal Reserve System.

[…] The federal government adds ink to a piece of paper, creates impressive designs around the edges, and calls it a bond or Treasury note. It is merely a promise to pay a specified sum at a specified interest on a specific date […] this debt eventually becomes the foundation for almost the entire nation’s money supply.  In reality, the government has created cash, but it doesn’t yet look like cash. To convert these IOUs into paper bills and checkbook money is the function of the Federal Reserve System.


Money as Debt (HERE)
An instrument of government debt is considered an asset because it is assumed the government will keep its promise to pay […] so the Federal Reserve now has an ‘asset’ which can be used to offset a liability. It then creates liability by adding ink to yet another piece of paper […] the “Federal Reserve Check” […]

There is no money in any account to cover this check. Anyone else doing that would be sent to prison. It is legal for the Fed, however, because Congress wants the money, and this is the easiest way to get it […] The process is mysteriously wrapped up in the banking system […] The Federal Reserve check is then deposited in one of the Federal Reserve Banks […] These checks become the means by which the first wave of fiat money floods into the economy."


In other words: Only the obligation of the state to borrow money that was created by private banking cartels out of virtually nothing, and to pay interests on this money, allows the progressive transfer of the wealth of the state and the people into the hands of financial oligarchies that own and control the banking system. A good part of all taxes imposed today by liberal western democracies are in fact but constant and direct neo-feudal tributes to parasitic financial oligarchies.

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Update: SP500 and VIX - Intermediate Term Delta Projections

Apparently there was an inversion in the ITD. So in early June a low in the VIX and a high in stocks
should be expected. Source: Time-Price-Research (Tuesday, February 18, 2014)

Updated Delta count for S&P 500: (Friday, May 23, 2014)




















Also the LOW in the SoLunar Tides on June 1 points to a HIGH in equities on that date