Monday, December 15, 2014

DJIA 2014 vs 1997

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.
For the methodology see HERE

The Stock Trader's Almanac Blog presented December’s typical seasonal pattern pointing to a bottom in stocks this week, possibly Monday, followed by a strong up day and then a nice rally.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Tom McClellan: Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for DJIA

Tom McClellan - Chart In Focus (December 11, 2014)

Tom McClellan recently presented a 10-year leading indication relationship between oil prices and the stock market, as shown in the above chart. The current oil price slide says that sometime around 2024 some type of “echo” in stock prices from this year’s oil price drop can be expected. 

Stock prices echoing oil price movements with a 10-year lag has “worked” for over 100 years and there is enough evidence to accept it, even if we cannot explain it. For now, the message of this leading indication is that the oil price rally from 1998 to 2008 has yet to see the full extent of its echo during the 2009-2018 period. While the current dip in oil prices is going to be bad for stock prices about 10 years from now, it is not really a problem for stock prices in real time. 

The following chart zooms into this correlation between the S&P500 and the Crude Oil Price shifted 10 years into the future and suggests the S&P500 would continue moving down next week, then up into end of December before forming a major low around January 6. Another rally into early July - with a correction from around March 20 to April 24 - should follow.

2014 is the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and mid-term years are historically some of the worst. However, 2015 - the 3rd year - is the pre-election year and historically the best of the 4-Year Presidential Cycle. Additionally the 5th year of the Decennial Cycle promises to be a strong up year for stocks with a top in late July or early August 2015 (see also HERE).

Oscar Carboni (12/15/2014): The Repricing of Crude Oil vs Dollar Index + Stocks keep Rising = No Crash!

The seasonal pattern of Crude Oil itself has a bottoming period between early December and mid February 2015.

Monday, November 24, 2014

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices 2015

This astro-forecasting tool was developed by Donald Bradley and published in 1947 in a booklet titled Stock Market Prediction. On the book-cover Bradley coined his tool the ‘Planetary Barometer’ and inside the book the ‘Siderograph’. Today it is simply called the ‘Bradley Index’. 

There are two versions of the index, a geocentric and a heliocentric one. Both attempt to forecast major and minor changes in the trend in stock markets indices. The Bradley Indices do not forecast highs or lows. Simply changes in the trend or non-directional turning-points. Donald Bradley wrote: 
[...] There are many [other] cycles affecting man with causes outside our immediate world. Well known among these is the electromagnetic cycle in biology which is caused by the relationship of the sun and the moon. Even tadpoles are seriously affected by this soli-lunar cycle which incidentially proves the wisdom of the oft-ridiculed practice of planting under various circumstances of the moon in the sky. What stimulates and pacifies the pollywog stimulates and pacifies the human being periodically.
“[...] At no time must the reader gain the impression that a Siderograph, as such, is a prediction of what the stock market will actually do. Nevertheless, observation proves that basic reversals in collective attitudes, clearly predicted by the line, are inevitably mirrored in stock averages.
(See also HERE)

[Eastern Standard Time (EST) -0500 UTC] 

Geocentric Bradley Index 2015
2014-11-20 (Thu) = Major Low
2014-12-09 (Tue) = High
2014-12-26 (Fri) = Low
2015-02-16 (Mon) = @ 0
2015-03-06 (Fri) = High
2015-03-11 (Wed) = Low
2015-04-03 (Fri) = High
2015-04-14 (Tue) = Low
2015-04-25 (Sat) = High
2015-05-04 (Mon) = Low
2015-05-10 (Sun) = High
2015-05-22 (Fri) = Low
2015-06-09 (Tue) = Major High
2015-06-20 (Sat) = Low
2015-06-28 (Sun) = High
2015-07-16 (Thu) = Low
2015-07-23 (Thu) = High
2015-07-29 (Wed) = Low
2015-08-03 (Mon) = High
2015-08-27 (Thu) = Low
2015-09-05 (Sat) = High
2015-10-01 (Thu) = @ 0
2015-10-09 (Fri) = Low
2015-10-26 (Mon) = @ 0
2015-11-08 (Sun) = High
2015-11-16 (Mon) = @ 0
2015-11-25 (Wed) = Low
2015-12-11 (Fri) = High
2015-12-20 (Sun) = Low
2015-12-25 (Fri) = High
2016-01-06 (Wed) = Low
2016-01-13 (Wed) = High
2016-01-18 (Mon) = Low
Heliocentric Bradley Index 2015
2014-11-22 (Sat) = Major Low     
2014-12-09 (Tue) = High   
2014-12-26 (Fri) = Low     
2015-02-10 (Tue) = @ 0
2015-03-04 (Wed) = High  
2015-03-12 (Thu) = Low    
2015-04-03 (Fri) = High     
2015-04-12 (Sun) = Low    
2015-04-24 (Fri) = High     
2015-05-04 (Mon) = Low   
2015-05-11 (Mon) = High  
2015-05-20 (Wed) = Low   
2015-06-09 (Tue) = Major High   
2015-06-21 (Sun) = Low    
2015-06-27 (Sat) = High    
2015-07-17 (Fri) = Low     
2015-07-21 (Tue) = High   
2015-07-30 (Thu) = Low    
2015-08-03 (Mon) = High  
2015-08-23 (Sun) = Low    
2015-09-03 (Thu) = High   
2015-09-24 (Thu) = Low    
2015-09-29 (Tue) = High   
2015-10-08 (Thu) = Low    
2015-11-06 (Fri) = High
2015-11-17 (Tue) = @ 0     
2015-12-07 (Mon) = Low   
2015-12-12 (Sat) = High    
2016-01-04 (Mon) = Low   
2016-01-13 (Wed) = High  
2016-01-19 (Tue) = Low    
Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices 2015
2014-11-20 (Thu) = Major Low (geo)
2014-11-22 (Sat) = Major Low (helio)   
2014-12-09 (Tue) = High (geo + helio)   
2014-12-26 (Fri) = Low (geo + helio)     
2015-02-10 (Tue) = @ 0 (helio)
2015-02-16 (Mon) = @ 0 (geo)
2015-03-04 (Wed) = High (helio)
2015-03-06 (Fri) = High (geo)
2015-03-11 (Wed) = Low (geo)
2015-03-12 (Thu) = Low (helio)   
2015-04-03 (Fri) = High (geo + helio)    
2015-04-12 (Sun) = Low (helio)   
2015-04-14 (Tue) = Low (geo)
2015-04-24 (Fri) = High (helio)    
2015-04-25 (Sat) = High (geo)
2015-05-04 (Mon) = Low (geo + helio)  
2015-05-10 (Sun) = High (geo)
2015-05-11 (Mon) = High (helio)
2015-05-20 (Wed) = Low (helio)  
2015-05-22 (Fri) = Low (geo)
2015-06-09 (Tue) = Major High (geo + helio)   
2015-06-20 (Sat) = Low (geo)
2015-06-21 (Sun) = Low (helio)   
2015-06-27 (Sat) = High (helio)   
2015-06-28 (Sun) = High (geo)
2015-07-16 (Thu) = Low (geo)
2015-07-17 (Fri) = Low (helio)    
2015-07-21 (Tue) = High (helio)  
2015-07-23 (Thu) = High (geo)
2015-07-29 (Wed) = Low (geo)
2015-07-30 (Thu) = Low (helio)   
2015-08-03 (Mon) = High (geo + helio)  
2015-08-23 (Sun) = Low (helio)   
2015-08-27 (Thu) = Low (geo)
2015-09-03 (Thu) = High (helio)  
2015-09-05 (Sat) = High (geo)
2015-09-24 (Thu) = Low (helio)   
2015-09-29 (Tue) = High (helio)  
2015-10-01 (Thu) = @ 0 (geo)
2015-10-08 (Thu) = Low (helio)   
2015-10-09 (Fri) = Low (geo)
2015-10-26 (Mon) = @ 0 (geo)
2015-11-06 (Fri) = High (helio)
2015-11-08 (Sun) = High (geo)
2015-11-16 (Mon) = @ 0 (geo)
2015-11-17 (Tue) = @ 0 (helio)    
2015-11-25 (Wed) = Low (geo)
2015-12-07 (Mon) = Low (helio)  
2015-12-11 (Fri) = High (geo)
2015-12-12 (Sat) = High (helio)   
2015-12-20 (Sun) = Low (geo)
2015-12-25 (Fri) = High (geo)
2016-01-04 (Mon) = Low (helio)  
2016-01-06 (Wed) = Low (geo)
2016-01-13 (Wed) = High (geo + helio)  
2016-01-18 (Mon) = Low (geo)
2016-01-19 (Tue) = Low (helio)

Sunday, November 9, 2014

2015 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA

Lance Roberts @

Since 1834 the U.S.-stock market has been positive 12 out of 18 times in the 4th year of every decade and the 5th year was by far the best year of the Decennial Pattern. The Dow Jones Industrial Average started in 1895 and since then 11 of the last 12 5th years were up and averaged a return of almost 22%. The exception from the pattern was 2005 when the DJIA lost 0.61%.

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

AR12192 - The Biggest Sunspot in Two Solar Cycles

Measuring 130,000 kilometers wide, AR12192 is the biggest sunspot in two solar cycles. 

It first appeared on the Earth-facing side of the sun on October 16, 2014 and produced a X.1-class flare three days later. The active solar region already has produced 137 C and M-class flares including this X1 flare. AR 12192 rotated onto the far side of the sun on October 30, 2014. 


However as it evolves a new version of it rotating back into view in ten days. AR 12192 is also unusual in that it hasn't produced any noteworthy coronal mass ejections, which usually spit billions of tonnes of solar material into space. 



In the chart at left the current SC 24 is shown in red, the mean of the previous 23 cycles is depicted by the blue curve, and the current cycle SC 24 strongly resembles SC 1, which is shown by the black curve. The current cycle resembles SC 1, and should it continue to behave like SC 1, a trailing off of activity cannot be anticipated anytime soon. Indications, however, do point to a longer than normal cycle. 


The variation in the Sun's motion about the Center of Mass is characterized by a periodicity of 178.770 years: Every 16 loops about the barycenter the Sun repeats a very similar path. The slight time derivative or torque to this 178.770 year cycle, a time dependant periodic function of +/- 1.05 years is called the torque cycle, determined by nine subsequent synodic periods of Jupiter and Saturn (9 * 19.858 years = 178.720 years) and used by Theodor Landscheidt to forecast sunspot cycles. The projection of this 178.72 Year Cycle (+/- 1.05 years) from the peak of SSC #8 in March 1837 suggests the peak of the current SSC #24 is still ahead of us and would occur in 2015-2016.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

About Living in Bananistan | Freedom and Democracy in Germany

Fed up: Ex-FAZ journalist Udo Ulfkotte about freedom and democracy in Germany (HERE)
The Allied Occupation of Germany began 69 years ago and has not yet ended. Foreign armies are still based on German soil and Europe's largest country still lacks a constitution and a peace treaty with the U.S. putting a formal end to the Second World War.

Some 37,000 U.S. military personnel are still permanently based in Germany and Britain also continues to base 22,000 troops and military equipment in the zone they formerly occupied. It is not uncommon to see British and American tanks in the streets of Germany. The country is littered with hundreds of U.S.-nukes and military bases, and became the hub for global NATO-aggression. Not only is Germany the second-biggest financial contributor to NATO and Israel. The energy and the media sector and many German DAX-companies are dominated by Anglo-American and Arabian investors. Occupying Germany enables the U.S. and the British to orchestrate European Union sanctions and phony policies for de-industrialization, clique cartelism, financial looting, and masochistic free trade agreements (TTIP, India-EU) instead of aiming for tangible progress and good neighborhood with Russia, the natural geopolitical partner of Europe.  

The UN Charter contains "enemy state clauses" (Articles 53 and 107), which were established because of Germany and still name it as the "enemy state" (along with Italy and Japan). The reunified German nation, considered a modern European democracy, has no constitution other than the temporary Basic Law (Grundgesetz) originally written in 1948, under the guidance of the U.S. military occupation forces and originally meant only to apply to the western parts of Germany under U.S. control. The denomination 'Federal Republic of Germany' is misleading: 'West Germany' was 'federalized' into the occupation zones of the French, the British and the U.S., and has never been more than a banana republic. To the very day this Basic Law has not been ratified by any vote of the German people nor replaced by a constitution. As soon as the Russians pulled out their forces, 'East Germany' was simply absorbed and privatized among globalist oligarchs and the west-German ruling class. Along the way oppositional characters were scared, defamed, silenced, some killed. By the late 1990s the 'New Germany' was ready to perform as the 'locomotive' and paymaster of a European Union and NATO, both again more and more hostile to Russia.

In the 1950s the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), and the Military Counterintelligence Service (MAD) were established as extensions of the U.S. and British-intelligence agencies, and by law they follow their orders and 'share' all information with them. On behalf of their Anglo-American masters they survey media and editors, register money-transactions, corrupt the voting system and elections, select, promote, and dump politicians, scientists, and journalists. The way the 'German government' deals e.g. with the German Bundesbank's gold stolen by the New York Fed or with the industrial espionage and the uninterrupted spying of the NSA on the communication of 80 million Germans, perfectly illustrates the nature of the occupation-regime. Looking at the German foreign policy, so far there were also no attempts to regain full sovereignty. Regardless their party affiliation, puppets like Schäuble, von der Leyen, Steinmaier, Merkel or Gauck continue to participate as willing 'U.S.-partners' in virtually every lunacy and crime.

Time-Price-Projections for a Major Low in Stocks

Credits: Jeff Hirsch -

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

The Birth of BABA

On September 19 the China-based e-commerce giant Alibaba performed the largest IPO in U.S. history: 

Alibaba (symbol:BABA) was collecting $ 21.8 billion - more than Google, Facebook, and Twitter combined (HERE). 

Alibaba's consumer-to-consumer portal Taobao, similar to, features nearly a billion products and is one of the 20 most-visited websites globally. The Group's websites accounted for over 60% of the parcels delivered in China by March 2013, and 80% of the nation's online sales by September 2014. Alipay, an online payment escrow service, accounts for roughly half of all online payment transactions within China. 

After some delays matching the huge volume of buy and sell orders, the first trade of Alibaba took place at 11.54 a.m. (HERE).




Buy Rosh Hashanah and Sell Yom Kippur?

Courtesy of Stock Trader's Almanac
This is a table of the DJIA returns from 'Sell on Rosh Hashanah' (= Jewish New Year on Sep 24-26, 2014) and 'Buy on Yom Kippur' (Oct 3-4, 2014) going back to 1971.

The DJIA turned up on Rosh Hashanah (last Friday), and contrary to the Wall Street adage the logic of the solunar forces signals that this week will be up into Yom Kippur. Let's see.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

André Barbault's Cyclic Index of Global Tension, Conflict and War

American jets hit targets in Syria on Tuesday, September 23rd, 2014, in the US-led fight against Islamic State. Although the US has not declared war since 1942, this is the seventh country that Barack Obama, the holder of the Nobel Peace Prize, has bombed in as many years (more HERE & HERE & HERE).

US Aggression Drags World into Age of Global Anarchy: After years of condemning the Syrian government's war against extremists at the cost of the civilian population, the US began launching air and missile strikes against "extremists" at the cost of Syria's civilian population. Mind-bending hypocrisy and the utter circumvention of the very "international law" the US claims to be chief arbiter over marks a dangerous leap toward global anarchy.