Monday, March 27, 2017
Sunday, March 26, 2017
The Developed World Populism Index │ Ray Dalio
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| * The latest point includes cases like Trump, UKIP in the UK, AfD in Germany, National Front in France, Podemos in Spain, and Five Star Movement in Italy. It doesn’t include major emerging country populists, like Erdogan in Turkey or Duterte in the Philippines. |
On March 22, 2017 Ray Dalio published "Populism: The Phenomenon", a paper that analyzes the role of populism in today’s world and in history. Ray Dalio runs the $150 billion dollar hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest. The paper introduces a "Developed World Populism Index", which Dalio says measures the strength of populism over time. It’s a weighted index of the vote share of anti-establishment parties or candidates in national elections for major developed countries since 1900. The index shows that populism is now at its highest level since the early 1930s. Contemporary populism includes supporters of Donald Trump, UKIP in the UK, AfD in Germany, National Front in France, Podemos in Spain and Five Star Movement in Italy. "Populism is not well understood because, over the past several decades, it has been infrequent in emerging countries (e.g., Chávez’s Venezuela, Duterte’s Philippines, etc.) and virtually nonexistent in developed countries. It is one of those phenomena that comes along in a big way about once a lifetime — like pandemics, depressions, or wars. The last time that it existed as a major force in the world was in the 1930s, when most countries became populist. Over the last year, it has again emerged as a major force."
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| A portrait of President Andrew Jackson (1829-1837) hangs on the wall behind President Trump in the Oval Office of the White House. Jackson was a rich, bragging populist, who said: "I was born for a storm and a calm doesn’t suit me." Also: "Peace, above all things, is to be desired, but blood must sometimes be spilled to obtain it on equable and lasting terms." Trump like Jackson is a rich, bragging businessman, a narcissist and reality TV star, who never held any public office before. Calm doesn’t suit him either, and millions at the U.S. home front are prepared for storm and blood (see also HERE + HERE). |
"We believe that populism’s role in shaping economic conditions will probably be more powerful than classic monetary and fiscal policies (as well as a big influence on fiscal policies)," writes Dalio and three Bridgewater colleagues. Populism is a political and social phenomenon that arises from the common man, typically not well-educated, being fed up with 1) wealth and opportunity gaps, 2) perceived cultural threats from those with different values in the country and from outsiders, the “establishment elites” in positions of power, and 4) government not working effectively for them, according to Dalio. In other words, populism is a rebellion of the common man against the elites and, to some extend, against the system. In summary, populism is:
- power to the common man.
- through the tactic of attacking the establishment, the elites, and the powerful.
- brought about by wealth and opportunity gaps, xenophobia, and people being fed up with government not working effectively, which leads to the emergence of the strong leader to serve the common man and make the system run more efficiently.
- protectionism.
- nationalism.
- militarism.
- greater conflict, and greater attempts to influence or control the media.
Friday, March 24, 2017
Wednesday, March 22, 2017
SPX vs CBOE Equity Put / Call Ratio | Moderate Fear
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| At 0.79 the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio signals moderate fear. However, this could be a corrective pattern in the SPX, and some sort of a market low close-by. March 23 (Thu) is a Cosmic Cluster Day (HERE); March 24 (Fri) a SoLunar turn-day (HERE). |
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| CNN's Fear & Greed Index signals moderate Fear. Source: CNN Fear & Greed Index |
SPX vs CBOE SKEW Index (10 DMA) │ All-Time-High
On March 20 the 10 Day Moving Average of the CBOE SKEW Index reached a historical high at 145.49. The CBOE SKEW Index ("SKEW") is an index derived from the price of S&P 500 tail risk. Similar to CBOE VIX, the price of S&P 500 tail risk is calculated from the prices of S&P 500 out-of-the-money options. SKEW typically ranges from 100 to 150. A SKEW value of 100 means that the perceived distribution of S&P 500 log-returns is normal, and the probability of outlier returns is therefore negligible. As SKEW rises above 100, the left tail of the S&P 500 distribution acquires more weight, and the probabilities of outlier returns become more significant. One can estimate these probabilities from the value of SKEW. Since an increase in perceived tail risk increases the relative demand for low strike puts, increases in SKEW also correspond to an overall steepening of the curve of implied volatilities, familiar to option traders as the "skew".
Tuesday, March 21, 2017
Denmark Free of Foreign-Currency Debt for the First Time in 183 Years
The last time Denmark was this close to ridding itself of foreign debt was the late 1890s, when these obligations were worth less than 1% of GDP. But low European interest rates at the time made financing projects like new railways more attractive with foreign debt, so the borrowing restarted. In recent history, issuing external debt has been a means to ensure sufficient foreign-exchange reserves. After Denmark pegged the krone to the deutsche mark, and later the euro, starting in the late 1970s, market interventions have been used to adjust the krone’s value, which require reserves of foreign currencies to buy and sell.
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| Joining Norway and Germany in the ranks of foreign-currency debt free nations. |
For its part, Denmark’s government still has some 465 billion kroner ($67 billion) in debt, which amounted to 23% of GDP at the end of last year, low by international standards. Around 40% of this debt is held by foreigners, who from now on will only get paid back in kroner.
Monday, March 20, 2017
Politics, Climate, and the Economy │ Peter Temple
Peter Temple (Mar 19, 2017) - Above is a chart of the US Presidents from 1913 through 2016. You can see the politicians who were liked and are considered “good leaders” by historians (green circles and check marks). The there are those we dislike (red circles and x’s) and threw out of office because “they destroyed the economy.”
Dr. Wheeler spent his entire life analyzing weather cycles back over 20 centuries to 600 BC. He found that major climate cycles changed every 25, 100, 500, and 1000 years and that they’re fractal, which means there are smaller cycles within larger cycles. During his life, he put together an archive of world events relative to changes in climate that was some 2000 pages in length, and when open, spanned a length of some 7 feet. To the left is the only shot I’ve found of him working on “The Big Book.” Here are the four twenty-five year cycles:
Spring: warm and wet
Summer, warm and dry
Fall: cool and wet
Winter: cold and dry.
The roaring ’20s (yellow) were mostly wet and warm, but in 1929 (red arrow), it got very cold – the mercury plunged. Cold and dry has always led to tough economic times. The stock market crashed. Then the next year, 1930 (green arrow points to temperature drop), was the driest year in over 150 years. It ushered in ten straight years of dry and hot (red)—about the hottest on record over the past couple of hundred years: The Great Depression. Hot and dry weather in history has led to a major war, despotism, dictators, socialism, communism, world wars, and other atrocities.
In the mid 40s (purple), it turned cool and wet … the economy picked up and the war ended. It lasted through to the ’60s—we had the Beatles, love and flowers … great times! Cool climate means energy–humans become much more active. Wet means prosperity in terms of food.
But in the late ’60s (green), we turned cold and dry … and that led to a deep recession that lasted through the late 70s. In fact there were articles in all the major newspapers predicting a mini ice age. Well, you’re likely to see those again.
But then it turned warm again in the ’80s (blue), the stock market turned up, and business started to boom! It was a warm-wet spring cycle once again—that means prosperity … and that lasted through the 90s, when it also started to get dry and cool again (after 1998).
These climate cycles happen so regularly, that in the 1940s Dr. Wheeler predicted the current change in climate with his drought clock. And sure enough, in 1998, the temperature started to cool and we’ve been getting cooler and dyer ever since. He also predicted extreme weather in the early twenty first century because we’re at the end of an even larger five hundred year cycle. Two major climate cycles are transitioning right now. That’s why we have such extreme weather (see also HERE).
Saturday, March 18, 2017
Thursday, March 16, 2017
Largest U.S. Onshore Conventional Hydrocarbons Discovery in 30 Years
Spanish oil major and North
Slope explorer Repsol and privately held Denver based Armstrong Energy
announced the discovery of the massive Horseshoe oil field in Alaska. The
contingent resources currently identified in the Nanushuk play amount to
approximately 1.2 billion barrels of recoverable light oil. This is the largest
U.S. onshore conventional hydrocarbons discovery in the last 30 years. The
Horseshoe-1 and Horseshoe-1A wells drilled in the 2016-2017 winter campaign
confirm Nanushuk as a significant emerging play in Alaska’s North Slope. The
discovery is 20 miles south of where the two companies have already found oil
in a project known as Pikka. Preliminary development concepts for Pikka
anticipate first production there from 2021, with a potential rate approaching
120,000 barrels of oil per day. The new massive find of conventional oil on
state land could bring relief to budget pains in Alaska brought on by slumping
production in the state and the crash in oil prices. Source: Repsol.
Monday, March 13, 2017
Effective Corporate Tax Rates in G20 Countries │ 2003 and 2012
In most G20 countries, effective corporate tax rates declined from 2003 to 2012 — mainly because of reductions in top statutory rates. The decline in the U.S. rate was relatively small. As a result of small reductions, on average, in state tax rates, it dropped by less than half a percentage point between 2003 and 2012. By 2012, the U.S. rate was the fourthhighest among G20 countries. The largest declines were driven by a combination of changes. Italy’s rate dropped by 36 percentage points because of a reduction in the top statutory rate and the introduction of a tax allowance for corporate equity. In Canada, the 12 percentage-point decline was caused by a reduction in the top statutory rate and an acceleration of cost recovery allowances for equipment. Reductions in four countries’ top statutory corporate tax rates were accompanied by a deceleration of cost recovery allowances. In Germany and Turkey, the effect of the reduction in the statutory rate was greater than the effect of the change in the allowances, leading to reductions in the effective corporate tax rates. The opposite was true in India and the United Kingdom, where effective corporate tax rates rose.
In Argentina and Brazil, two of the three countries whose top statutory tax rates were unchanged from 2003 to 2012, effective corporate tax rates remained the same. Australia’s effective corporate tax rate declined because of an acceleration of its cost recovery allowances.
Sunday, March 12, 2017
Where did Steve Bannon get his Worldview? From my Book. │ Neil Howe
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| Steve Bannon - Trump’s chief strategist. |
I wrote that book with William Strauss
back in 1997. It is true that Bannon is enthralled by it. In 2010, he released
a documentary, “Generation Zero”, that is
structured around our theory that history in America (and by extension, most
other modern societies) unfolds in a recurring cycle of four-generation long
eras. While this cycle does include a time of civic and political crisis — a
Fourth Turning, in our parlance — the reporting on the book has been absurdly
apocalyptic.
I don’t know Bannon well. I have
worked with him on several film projects, including “Generation Zero,” over the
years. I’ve been impressed by his cultural savvy. His politics, while unusual,
never struck me as offensive. I was surprised when he took over the leadership
of Breitbart and promoted the views espoused on that site. Like many people, I
first learned about the alt-right (a far-right movement with links to Breitbart
and a loosely defined white-nationalist agenda) from the mainstream media.
Strauss, who died in 2007, and I never told Bannon what to say or think. But we
did perhaps provide him with an insight — that populism, nationalism and
state-run authoritarianism would soon be on the rise, not just in America but
around the world.
Because we never attempted to write a
political manifesto, we were surprised by the book’s popularity among certain
crusaders on both the left and the right. When “The Fourth Turning” came out,
our biggest partisan fans were Democrats, who saw in our description of an
emerging “Millennial Generation” (a term we coined) the sort of
community-minded optimists who would pull America toward progressive ideals.
Yet we’ve also had conservative fans, who were drawn to another lesson: that
the new era would probably see the successful joining of left-wing economics
with right-wing social values. Beyond ideology, I think there’s
another reason for the rising interest in our book. We reject the deep premise
of modern Western historians that social time is either linear (continuous
progress or decline) or chaotic (too complex to reveal any direction). Instead
we adopt the insight of nearly all traditional societies: that social time is a
recurring cycle in which events become meaningful only to the extent that they
are what philosopher Mircea Eliade calls “reenactments.” In cyclical space,
once you strip away the extraneous accidents and technology, you are left with
only a limited number of social moods, which tend to recur in a fixed order.
Along this cycle, we can identify four
“turnings” that each last about 20 years — the length of a generation. Think of
these as recurring seasons, starting with spring and ending with winter. In
every turning, a new generation is born and each older generation ages into its
next phase of life.
The cycle begins with the First Turning, a “High” which comes after a crisis era. In a High, institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, even if many feel stifled by the prevailing conformity. Many Americans alive today can recall the post-World War II American High (historian William O’Neill’s term), coinciding with the Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy presidencies. Earlier examples are the post-Civil War Victorian High of industrial growth and stable families, and the post-Constitution High of Democratic Republicanism and Era of Good Feelings.The Second Turning is an “Awakening”, when institutions are attacked in the name of higher principles and deeper values. Just when society is hitting its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of all the social discipline and want to recapture a sense of personal authenticity. Salvation by faith, not works, is the youth rallying cry. One such era was the Consciousness Revolution of the late 1960s and 1970s. Some historians call this America’s Fourth or Fifth Great Awakening, depending on whether they start the count in the 17th century with John Winthrop or the 18th century with Jonathan Edwards.The Third Turning is an “Unraveling”, in many ways the opposite of the High. Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Third Turning decades such as the 1990s, the 1920s and the 1850s are notorious for their cynicism, bad manners and weak civic authority. Government typically shrinks, and speculative manias, when they occur, are delirious.Finally, the Fourth Turning is a “Crisis” period. This is when our institutional life is reconstructed from the ground up, always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. If history does not produce such an urgent threat, Fourth Turning leaders will invariably find one — and may even fabricate one — to mobilize collective action. Civic authority revives, and people and groups begin to pitch in as participants in a larger community. As these Promethean bursts of civic effort reach their resolution, Fourth Turnings refresh and redefine our national identity. The years 1945, 1865 and 1794 all capped eras constituting new “founding moments” in American history.
Just as a Second Turning reshapes our
inner world (of values, culture and religion), a Fourth Turning reshapes our
outer world (of politics, economy and empire).
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| September 11, 2001: The sinister Neocon Project for a New American Century, engineering "some catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor" — one generation ahead of time (HERE). |
In our paradigm, one can look ahead and suggest that a coming time period — say, a certain decade — will resemble, in its essential human dynamic, a time period in the past. In “The Fourth Turning,” we predicted that, starting around 2005, America would probably experience a “Great Devaluation” in financial markets, a catalyst that would mark America’s entry into an era whose first decade would likely parallel the 1930s. Reflecting on the decade we’ve just lived through, we can probably agree that the 1930s parallel works well. In the economy, both decades played out in the shadow of a global financial crash, and were characterized by slow and disappointing economic growth and chronic underemployment of labor and capital. Both saw tepid investment, deflation fears, growing inequality and the inability of central bankers to rekindle consumption.
In geopolitics, we’ve witnessed the
rise of isolationism, nationalism and right-wing populism across the globe.
Geostrategist Ian Bremmer says we now live in a “G-Zero” world, where it’s
every nation for itself. This story echoes the 1930s, which witnessed the
waning authority of great-power alliances and a new willingness by
authoritarian regimes to act with terrifying impunity. In social trends, the two decades also
show parallels: falling rates of fertility and home-ownership, the rise of
multi-generational households, the spread of localism and community
identification, a dramatic decline in youth violence (a fact that apparently
has eluded the president), and a blanding of pop youth culture. Above all, we
sense a growing desire among voters around the world for leaders to assert
greater authority and deliver deeds rather than process, results rather than
abstractions.
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| September 1, 2005: FEMA-camp, New Orleans, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina (HERE). |
We live in an increasingly volatile and primal era, in which history is speeding up and liberal democracy is weakening. As Vladimir Lenin wrote, “In some decades, nothing happens; in some weeks, decades happen.” Get ready for the creative destruction of public institutions, something every society periodically requires to clear out what is obsolete, ossified and dysfunctional — and to tilt the playing field of wealth and power away from the old and back to the young. Forests need periodic fires; rivers need periodic floods. Societies, too. That’s the price we must pay for a new golden age. If we look at the broader rhythms of history, we have reason to be heartened, not discouraged, by these trends. Anglo-American history over the past several centuries has experienced civic crises in a fairly regular cycle, about every 80 or 90 years, or roughly the length of a long human life. This pattern reveals itself in the intervals separating the colonial Glorious Revolution, the American Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression and World War II. Fast-forward the length of a long human life from the 1930s, and we end up where we are today.
America entered a new Fourth Turning in 2008. It is likely to last until around 2030. Our paradigm suggests that current trends will deepen as we move toward the halfway point. Further adverse events, possibly another financial crisis or a major armed conflict, will galvanize public opinion and mobilize leaders to take more decisive action. Rising regionalism and nationalism around the world could lead to the fragmentation of major political entities (perhaps the European Union) and the outbreak of hostilities (perhaps in the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula, the Baltic states or the Persian Gulf).
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| September 18, 2008: Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke met with key legislators to propose a $700 billion emergency bailout. Bernanke reportedly told them: "If we don't do this, we may not have an economy on Monday." (HERE) |
Despite a new tilt toward isolationism, the United States could find itself at war. I certainly do not hope for war. I simply make a sobering observation: Every total war in U.S. history has occurred during a Fourth Turning, and no Fourth Turning has yet unfolded without one. America’s objectives in such a war are likely to be defined very broadly. At the end of the 2020s, the Fourth Turning crisis era will climax and draw to a close. Settlements will be negotiated, treaties will be signed, new borders will be drawn, and perhaps (as in the late 1940s) a new durable world order will be created. Perhaps as well, by the early 2030s, we will enter a new First Turning: Young families will rejoice, fertility will rebound, economic equality will rise, a new middle class will emerge, public investment will grow into a new 21st-century infrastructure, and ordered prosperity will recommence.
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| "Prestige lasts at best four generations in one lineage." Muqaddimah (1377), Ibn Khaldun. |
During the next First Turning, potentially the next “American High,” millennials will move into national leadership and showcase their optimism, smarts, credentials and confidence. Sometime in the late 2030s, the first millennial will be voted into the White House, prompting talk of a new Camelot moment. Let a few more years pass, and those organization-minded millennials may face a passionate and utterly unexpected onslaught from a new crop of youth. Welcome to the next Awakening. The cycle of history keeps turning, inexorably (see also HERE).
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| The Global Financial Crisis catalyzed by the 2008 financial meltdown in the US was the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s. With public trust continuing to ebb, the regeneracy phase of this crisis still seems years away. Most likely, this Fourth Turning will come to an end in the late 2020s, just as the Generation Zero/Millennials will embark on careers (HERE). |
Saturday, March 11, 2017
Russell 2000 Index vs Galactic Cosmic Rays
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| Saturday, March 11: Galactic Cosmic Rays (impacts per minute) │ Corrected for Pressure Data │ Shifted + 7 CD |
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| Update Monday, March 13: Galactic Cosmic Rays (impacts per minute) │ Corrected for Pressure Data │ Shifted + 2 CD |
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| Very high energy gamma ray map of the Galactic Center region Sagittarius A* (pronounced Sagittarius A-star, standard abbreviation SgrA*). The color scale shows the number of gamma rays per pixel, while the white contour lines illustrate the distribution of molecular gas. Their correlation points to a hadronic origin of gamma ray emission. The right panel is simply a zoomed view of the inner portion (HERE). |
SPX vs Jupiter 180° Uranus + Sun 0° Neptune | Gérald Langelier
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| SUN 000 NEP = Mar 01, 2017 (Wed) JUP 180 URA = Mar 02, 2017 (Thu) Source: Gérald Langelier @ AstroTimeRatio (Mar 01, 2017) |
SPX vs Declination of Mercury + Venus | March 2017
VEN Dec @ MAX = Mar 11 (Sat), MER Dec @ 0 = Mar 15 (Wed), MER Dec # VEN Dec = Mar 26 (Sun).
Saturday, March 4, 2017
SPX vs Galactic Cosmic Rays
Galactic cosmic rays are the most energetic of particles found in space. The most prevalent are high-energy protons, but as with particles from the Sun, there are also much heavier ions, ranging from the nuclei of helium atoms (atomic weight four, or four times the weight of a proton) to the relatively abundant ions of iron (weight 56). And they travel outward at speeds that can considerably exceed most particles of solar origin. The reason for the great energies and high speeds of cosmic rays, and why they include heavy ions such as iron, nickel and zinc, is that they are propelled outward from cataclysms far more violent than any large solar flare. The source of most cosmic rays is thought to be explosions of entire stars (supernovae). The solar cycle is an approximately 11-year period of varying solar activity including solar maximum where the solar wind is strongest and solar minimum where the solar wind is weakest. Galactic cosmic rays create a continuous radiation dose throughout the Solar System that increases during solar minimum and decreases during solar maximum. Because cosmic rays are electrically charged they are deflected by magnetic fields, and their directions have been randomized, making it impossible to tell where they originated. However, cosmic rays in other regions of the Galaxy can be traced by the electromagnetic radiation they produce. Supernova remnants such as the Crab Nebula are known to be a source of cosmic rays. In addition, most cosmic rays are confined to the disk of the Galaxy, presumably by its magnetic field. More HERE
Friday, March 3, 2017
Thursday, March 2, 2017
Fertility Rate, Life Expectancy and the Solar Cycle
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| Source: Huffington Post |
Source: Gine Roll Skjærvø, Frode Fossøy and Eivin Røskaft (2015) - Solar activity at birth predicted infant survival and women’s fertility in historical Norway. In: Proceedings of the Royal Society, Biological Sciences 282.
Climax of the Fourth Astro-Kondratiev Cycle | URA-PLU Squares 1787 - 2052
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| The astrological Kondratiev Cycle. |
Christof Niederwieser (2015) - One of the most discussed prognosis models of modern futures studies is the Kondratiev Cycle. It postulates a regular pattern of upswings and downswings in the economy, ranging over 50 to 60 years. This cycle is based on collective paradigm shifts, caused by the emergence of new technologies that revolutionize both the economy and society at large.
[...] To this day the Kondratiev model has remained popular. It’s one of the very rare macroeconomic theories that allow concrete long-term forecasts. And it vividly explains the major growth drivers of the last 200 years. There are different opinions about details like the exact time when the cycles start or end or the exact names of the leitmotifs. But many researchers agree that there is something behind these cycles. Nevertheless there are some critical points, especially methodological ones.
Thus, there is still controversy as to whether or not the wave pattern really shows up in empirical data. Statistics from different decades and countries are not directly comparable. They have to be smoothed out first. Methods of data aggregation change over the years. Different countries use different formulas to calculate indicators. The definition of industry sectors and market baskets are modified in the course of time. Nominal data have to be adjusted according to inflation rate or currency changes. The methods of data processing thereby significantly determine the final shape of the curve. And depending on the method used, the Kondratiev Wave may or may not be revealed.
Kondratiev’s followers elegantly evade this problem. When presenting a graphical chart of the cycle, they usually put the decades on the x-axis. But the y-axis remains unlabelled. Carlota Perez, Professor of Technology and Socio-economic Development, is one of the most renowned contemporary Kondratiev experts. She admits that “Indeed, the Long Waves actually cannot be verified at the macro-economic level. But if we look at the level of innovations and also include social aspects, the Long Waves are clearly visible – even if these changes don’t necessarily reflect in macro-economic data like the GDP or large waves overlap.”
[...] let’s scan astrology for a long wave planetary cycle that indicates the following pattern: new core technologies trigger a radical transformation of the economy and society, a revolution of power systems and thinking models, a profound collective paradigm shift. This pattern is typical for the Uranus-Pluto Cycle: New ideas and technical innovations (Uranus) disrupt established power systems and ideologies (Pluto) and become the new leitmotif for the masses (Pluto).
[...] The Astro-Kondratiev not only explains the major technical and social developments of the past centuries. It also allows for a concrete look into the future. What will come next after the Information Cycle has reached its climax? What socio-political implications can be expected in the forthcoming years? What current technical innovations might become the core technology of the Fifth Astro-Kondratiev that will start in the 2040s? In what larger pattern is the Astro-Kondratiev embedded and how can its morphology be described in more detail? These questions are highly significant for areas such as politics, corporate governance, strategic planning, innovation management and investments.
[...] To this day the Kondratiev model has remained popular. It’s one of the very rare macroeconomic theories that allow concrete long-term forecasts. And it vividly explains the major growth drivers of the last 200 years. There are different opinions about details like the exact time when the cycles start or end or the exact names of the leitmotifs. But many researchers agree that there is something behind these cycles. Nevertheless there are some critical points, especially methodological ones.
Thus, there is still controversy as to whether or not the wave pattern really shows up in empirical data. Statistics from different decades and countries are not directly comparable. They have to be smoothed out first. Methods of data aggregation change over the years. Different countries use different formulas to calculate indicators. The definition of industry sectors and market baskets are modified in the course of time. Nominal data have to be adjusted according to inflation rate or currency changes. The methods of data processing thereby significantly determine the final shape of the curve. And depending on the method used, the Kondratiev Wave may or may not be revealed.
Kondratiev’s followers elegantly evade this problem. When presenting a graphical chart of the cycle, they usually put the decades on the x-axis. But the y-axis remains unlabelled. Carlota Perez, Professor of Technology and Socio-economic Development, is one of the most renowned contemporary Kondratiev experts. She admits that “Indeed, the Long Waves actually cannot be verified at the macro-economic level. But if we look at the level of innovations and also include social aspects, the Long Waves are clearly visible – even if these changes don’t necessarily reflect in macro-economic data like the GDP or large waves overlap.”
[...] let’s scan astrology for a long wave planetary cycle that indicates the following pattern: new core technologies trigger a radical transformation of the economy and society, a revolution of power systems and thinking models, a profound collective paradigm shift. This pattern is typical for the Uranus-Pluto Cycle: New ideas and technical innovations (Uranus) disrupt established power systems and ideologies (Pluto) and become the new leitmotif for the masses (Pluto).
[...] The Astro-Kondratiev not only explains the major technical and social developments of the past centuries. It also allows for a concrete look into the future. What will come next after the Information Cycle has reached its climax? What socio-political implications can be expected in the forthcoming years? What current technical innovations might become the core technology of the Fifth Astro-Kondratiev that will start in the 2040s? In what larger pattern is the Astro-Kondratiev embedded and how can its morphology be described in more detail? These questions are highly significant for areas such as politics, corporate governance, strategic planning, innovation management and investments.
SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | March 2017
Upcoming Turn-Days: Feb 23 (Thu), Mar 02 (Thu), Mar 07 (Tue), Mar 16 (Thu), Mar 24 (Fri), Mar 29 (Wed), Apr 03 (Mon).
SPX vs 24th Harmonic of Mercury's Right Ascension | March 2017
Upcoming Turn-Days: Mar 01 (Wed), Mar 03 (Fri), Mar 05 (Sun), Mar 07 (Tue), Mar 09 (Thu), Mar 12 (Sun), Mar 13 (Mon), Mar 16 (Thu), Mar 18 (Sat), Mar 20 (Mon), Mar 22 (Wed), Mar 25 (Sat), Mar 27 (Mon), Mar 31 (Fri), Apr 05 (Wed).
SPX vs AstroMetric Indicator | March 2017
Upcoming Turn-Days: Mar 06 (Mon), Mar 12 (Thu), Mar 16 (Thu), Mar 21 (Tue), Mar 29 (Wed), Apr 01 (Sat).
SPX vs True Lunar Node Speed | March 2017
Upcoming Turn-Days: Mar 02 (Thu), Mar 08 (Wed), Mar 15 (Wed), Mar 17 (Fri), Mar 18 (Sat), Mar 24 (Fri), Mar 28 (Tue), Mar 30 (Thu), Apr 03 (Mon).
The Golden Fabric of Time and Phi in the Sky │ Nicholas Kollerstrom
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| Source: Nicholas Kollerstrom (2011) - The Golden Fabric of Time and 'Phi in the Sky'. In: Correlation 27 (2), July 2011. |
Wednesday, March 1, 2017
SPX vs SoLunar Map | March 2017
Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are: Mar 05 (Sun), Mar 09 (Thu), Mar 12 (Sun), Mar 16 (Thu), Mar 20 (Mon), Mar 24 (Fri), Mar 27 (Mon), Mar 31 (Fri), Apr 03 (Mon). Previous SoLunar Maps HERE
The Dow's Dirty Dozen | Nautilus Research
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| The Dow Jones Industrial average hits 12 days of consecutive all-time highs. Just one more day to go to a 100 year record: 1929, 1987, 2017. Source: Nautilus Research @NautilusCap (Feb 28, 2017) |
SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days | March 2017
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| Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) in March are: Mar 05 (Sun), Mar 07 (Tue), Mar 13 (Mon), Mar 14 (Tue), Mar 18 (Sat), Mar 20 (Mon), Mar 23 (Thu), Mar 26 (Sun). Previous CCDs are HERE |
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