Reference:
Cameron Benson (Sep 02, 2023) - Simplest Trading Strategy of all Time [Stacey Burke Style]. (video)
Showing posts with label Price Action. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Price Action. Show all posts
Sunday, September 3, 2023
Stacey Burke Style Trading in a Nutshell | Cameron Benson
Reference:
Cameron Benson (Sep 02, 2023) - Simplest Trading Strategy of all Time [Stacey Burke Style]. (video)
Sunday, August 20, 2023
Three-Push Reversal Patterns | Cameron Benson
There are
a lot of varying opinions about how the market moves, such as the
Wyckoff method, Elliott Waves, Stacey Burke Trading, Steve Mauro’s BTMM, etc. However, one
thing that all of these methods and models have in common is that the market moves in
three pushes.
In all timeframes price is always in some three-push pattern. Price develops in
fractals, and everything happening
on a higher time frame happens far more frequently on lower
time frames. Be aware of Other Time Frame (OTF) traders, of previous monthly, weekly,
and daily highs or lows. It helps us to identify
liquidity areas. Where are the entry and the stop loss orders? Where is the money, at the upper or at the lower
end of a range?
After the third push into one direction, price is going into consolidation. During the second push retail-traders believe that price is going to continue in the same direction, and everybody jumps in. This is the market maker’s trap to harvest entry and stop loss orders during consolidation. The third push is already part of a larger peak formation reversal pattern.
There are
four different variations of the three-push pattern that can be observed on all
timeframes:
1. 3 Levels, also referred to as ‘stair stepping’.
2. 3 Pushes:
a. Stair Step.
b. 1, 2, Pause, 3.
c. 1, 2, 3.
d. 1, Pause, 2, Pause, 3.
e. 3 Burst Impulse Candles.
3. 3 Pushes out of consolidation in any of the above listed variations.
4. Working Levels (3 Pushes)
a. Triple Tops.
b. Triple Bottoms.
2. 3 Pushes:
a. Stair Step.
b. 1, 2, Pause, 3.
c. 1, 2, 3.
d. 1, Pause, 2, Pause, 3.
e. 3 Burst Impulse Candles.
3. 3 Pushes out of consolidation in any of the above listed variations.
4. Working Levels (3 Pushes)
a. Triple Tops.
b. Triple Bottoms.
Sunday, August 13, 2023
The Central Pivot Range & Floor Trader Pivots | Trading Strategy
Floor Trader Pivots have been around for a long time and many traders have used these pivots to master the market for decades. Larry Williams re-popularized the formula by including it in his book, How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities (1979). He described the "Pivot Price Formula" that he used to arrive at the next day's probable high or low. The concept of the Central Pivot Range was developed by Frank Ochoa (2010) based on Mark Fisher's Pivot Range (2002).
Here
is is one example of a trading strategy: Buy at the Central Pivot
Range's support in an uptrend and sell at resistance in a downtrend.
Filter all Floor Trader Pivots except S1, R2, and the central pivot
point when the market is in an uptrend. In a downtrend, all pivots are
filtered except R1, S2, and the central pivot point. If the market is
trending higher, one should look to buy at support at either S1 or the
central pivot range with the target set to a new high at either R1 or
R2.
Likewise, if the
market is trending lower, look to sell at resistance at either
R1 or the central pivot range with the target set to a new low at
either S1 or S2. It takes a lot of conviction to break a trend and push
prices in the other direction, which means to be able to identify
the change in trend early enough, to profit from a very
enthusiastic price move, which can last a day, or even weeks. Once a
severe breach occurs through the first layer of the pivots, one
typically sees a shift of the trend toward the opposite extreme. That is,
a bullish trend becomes a bearish trend, and a bearish trend becomes a
bullish trend. Two key buying or selling zones, S1 and the central pivot
range in an uptrend, and R1 and the central pivot range in a downtrend.
CPR as a Magnet for Price - The
central pivot range (CPR) can have an amazing magnetic effect on price that
can lead to a high percentage fill of the morning gap. If price opens
the day with a gap and the centrals are back near the prior day's close,
you typically see a fill of the gap a high percentage of the time,
given the right circumstances. The central pivot point is reached 63 percent of the time at some point
during the day. When the market gaps at the open, the trade inherently
has a 63 percent chance of being a winner. Gaps that are too large don't
tend to fill as easily as those that are moderate in size. Pivot range
placement should be at, or very near, the prior day's closing price. If
the range is too close to price, however, it could hinder the market's
ability to fill the gap. Don’t wait all day for a gap to fill, because
the longer the trade takes, the more unlikely it is to fill. Gap fills
in general, seem to work best during earnings season. If price gaps up
to R1 resistance, or down to S1 support, these pivots can serve as a
barrier to a breakaway trade, which leads to a higher percentage of
filled gaps. A gap down requires much more confirmation, conviction, and
volume in order to fill the gap on most occasions.
Breakaway Strategy - When the market has formed a narrow-range day (NR4, NR7) in the prior session, the
pivots are likely to be tight, or narrow. Narrow pivots foster breakout
and trending sessions. If the market opens the session with a gap that
is beyond the prior day's price range and beyond the first layer of the
indicator, the chances of reaching pivots beyond the second layer of the
indicator increase dramatically. Price opened the day with a gap that
occurred beyond the prior day's price range and above R1 resistance.
When this occurs, one should study price behavior very closely in order
to determine if the pivot that was surpassed via the gap will hold. If
the pivot holds as support, you will look to enter the market long with
your sights set on R3 as the target. The third and fourth layers
are 30 percent more likely to be tested when price gaps beyond the first
layer of the indicator. When trading the Breakaway Strategy using the Floor
Trader Pivots, one should typically like to see the gap occur beyond the prior
day's range and value, preferably just beyond the first layer of the
indicator. In addition, the gap should occur no farther than the second
layer of the pivots.
CPR Width Forecasting -
Pivot Width is the distance between the top central pivot (TC) and the bottom central pivot (BC). Since the prior day's trading activity leads to the creation of today's
pivots, it is extremely important to understand how the market behaved
in the prior day in order to forecast what may occur in the upcoming
session. More specifically, if the market experienced a wide range of
movement in the prior session, the pivots for the following day will
likely be wider than normal, which usually leads to a Typical Day, Trading Range Day, or Sideways Day scenario. Conversely, if the market
experiences a very quiet trading day in the prior session, the pivots
for the following day are likely to be unusually tight, or narrow, which
typically leads to a Trend Day, Double-Distribution Trend Day, or Extended Typical Day scenario.
Pivot
width analysis works best when the range of movement is distinctly high
or low, thereby creating unusually wide or narrow pivots If the pivot
width is not distinctly wide or narrow, it becomes very difficult to
predict potential trading behavior with any degree of certainty for the
following session. An unusually narrow pivot range usually indicates the
market is primed for an explosive breakout opportunity. A tight central
pivot range can be dynamite. Be aware when a day has the
potential to start off with a bang. A day that has a wide range of
movement, like a Trend Day, will lead to the creation of an abnormally
wide pivot range for the following session. In this instance, you
typically see a quieter atmosphere in the market, as dictated by the
wide-set pivot range. Sometimes, a wide-set pivot range leads to nice
trading range behavior that allows you to pick off quick intraday swings
in the market, much like the Trading Range Day. The key to trading a
day when the centrals are wide is to identify the day's initial balance
after the first hour of trading. If the initial balance has a wide
enough width, you are likely to see trading range behavior within the
high and low of the first sixty minutes of the day. If the initial
balance coincides with key pivot levels, you have highly confirmed
support and resistance levels that offer great opportunities for
short-term bounces.
The
market has a much better chance to reach pivots beyond the second layer
of the Floor Pivots indicator if the central pivot range is unusually
narrow due to a low-range trading day in the prior session. Conversely, a
market is less likely to reach pivots beyond the second layer of the
indicator if the central pivot range is unusually wide due to a
wide-range trading day in the prior session.
CPR Trend Analysis
- Buying the dips means buying the pull-backs within an uptrend, while
selling the rips means selling (or shorting) the rallies within a
downtrend. One of the best ways to buy and sell pull-backs in a trend is
to play the bounces off the central pivot range, which is the method
many professionals use. A strong trend can usually be gauged by how
price remains above the bottom central pivot (BC) while in an uptrend,
and below the top central pivot (TC) while in a downtrend. Once price
violates this paradigm by closing beyond the range for the day, you see
either a change in trend or a trading range market develop. Pull-back
opportunities usually occur early in the session, with follow-through
occurring the rest of the day. Any pull-back to the range early in the
morning is a buying or selling opportunity depending on the direction of
the trend. Once in the trade, the goal is to either ride the trade to a
prior area of support or resistance, or to a new high or low within the
trend.
Two-Day CPR Range Relationships - Understanding how the current central pivot range relates to a prior day's CPR will go a long way toward understanding current market behavior and future price movement. Where the market closes in relation to the pivot range gives you an initial directional bias for the following session. The next day's opening price will either confirm or reject this bias Higher Value relationship. Current day's pivot range is completely higher than the prior day's pivot range.
Two-Day Unchanged CPR Range = Sideways or Breakout Bias - The
current pivot range is virtually unchanged from the prior day's range.
Of the seven two-day relationships, this is the only one that can
project two very different outcomes, posing a bit of a dichotomy. On the
one hand, a two-day neutral pivot range indicates that the market is
satisfied with the facilitation of trade within the current range. When
this occurs, the market will trade quietly within the boundaries of the
existing two or three day trading range. On the other hand, however, a
two-day unchanged pivot range relationship can indicate the market is on
the verge of a major breakout opportunity, similar to when the market
has formed two, or more, points of control that are unchanged. The
outcome is typically driven by the opening print of the current session.
If the market opens the day near the prior session's closing price and
well within the prior day's range, the market will likely lack the
conviction necessary for a breakout attempt. If the opening print occurs
beyond the prior day's price range, or very close to an extreme, the
chances are good that a breakout opportunity may lie ahead.
 |
| Daily CPR Width and Range Relationships. |
Outside CPR Range = Sideways Bias -
This happens when the current day's pivot range completely engulfs the
prior day's range. This two-day relationship typically implies sideways
or trading range activity, as the market is happy with the current
facilitation of trade in the current price range. A wide range will
usually indicate trading range behavior This relationship is much more
telling if the current day's pivot range is significantly wider than the
prior day's range. Otherwise, merely engulfing the prior day's range
without the necessary width may lead to the same result, but with less
accuracy.
Inside CPR Range = Breakout Bias -
It occurs when the current day's pivot range is completely inside the
prior day's range. This two-day relationship typically implies a
breakout opportunity for the current session, as the market is likely
winding up ahead of a breakout attempt. If the market opens the day
beyond the prior day's price range, there is a very good chance that
initiative participants will enter the market with conviction in order
to push price to new value. If the market opens the day within the prior
day's price range, a breakout opportunity could still be had, but with
much less conviction. This two-day relationship doesn't occur
frequently. On the days when it develops, usually lead to major trending
sessions. If the prior day's pivot range is noticeably wider than the
inside day pivot range, you are more likely to see a breakout
opportunity, especially if the current day's pivot range is very narrow.
If both pivot ranges are virtually the same width, but technically meet
the inside requirement, the rate of success will noticeably drop.
 |
| Daily CPR Width and Range Relationships and Floor Trader Pivot Levels. |
Higher CPR Range = Bullish Bias - Current day's pivot range is completely higher than the prior day's pivot range. The most bullish relationship of the seven two-day combinations Initial directional bias will be bullish. However, how the market opens the day will either confirm or reject this initial bias. If the market opens the day anywhere above the bottom of the pivot range, you will look to buy a pull-back to the range ahead of a move to new highs. This is especially the case if price opens above the top of the range. As long as the market opens the following day above the bottom of the pivot range, but preferably above the top of the range, any pull-back to the range should be seen as a buying opportunity.
Lower CPR Range = Bearish Bias
- It occurs when the current day's pivot range is completely lower than
the prior session's range. This is the most bearish two-day
relationship and typically leads to further weakness should the current
day's opening price confirm the directional bias. If price opens the
session below the central pivot range, you will look to sell any
pull-back to the range ahead of a drop to new lows within the current
trend. If price opens the following session below the top of the pivot
range, but preferably below the bottom of the range, any pull-back to
the range should be a selling opportunity. It must be reiterated,
however, that just because a two-day relationship implies a certain
behavior in price, this bias must be confirmed by the opening print.
While a Lower Value relationship is the most bearish two-day
relationship, perhaps the biggest rallies occur when the opening print
rejects the original bias.
Overlapping Lower CPR Range = Moderately Bearish Bias - The current day's bottom central pivot is lower than the bottom of the prior day's range, but the top of the current day's range is higher than the bottom of the prior day's range.It indicates a moderately bearish outlook for the forthcoming session. If price opens within or below the pivot range, price should continue to auction lower. Any pull-back to the range should be seen as a selling opportunity.
 |
| Weekly CPR Width and Range Relationships. |
References:
Tuesday, June 20, 2023
ICT Daily Range Profiles | Michael J. Huddleston
1. The Classic Buy Day or Sell Day Template
This is the best template to make money since it is a wide range trending day that unfolds mostly on Monday, Tuesday and latest on Wednesday during the London session. The New York session will eventually give a retracement to continue with the trend that was set during the London session. The daily range will last for 7 to 8 hours once the profile is established.
Mostly it will give a rally or drop from the daily opening price to the low or high of the day during the London session. The trend usually lasts into 11:00 EST.
2. The London Swing to Z Day Template
This template is found in the middle of a larger price swing when the trend is exhausted after a large explosive move. It is a narrow range day and ideally occurs on Thursday.
Price will initially drop below the opening price, then run above the opening price and go back to the range into consolidation. It first appears to unfold as the Classic Buy or Sell Template. But if it continues consolidating, do not look for continuation into the New York session. Take profits.
3. The London Swing to New York Open / London Close Reversal Template
The bullish version of this template always begins like a Classic Buy or Sell template with a decline below the opening price before price starts rallying. Once price drops, a buy entry forms, price rallies to a higher time frame Point of Interest (POI). If this happens during the New York session, it indicates a classic market reversal.
The template is used to either reach for a bearish order block on a higher time frame, for a turtle soup raid or to close a range. On a bullish day it will first create an initial low of the day during the London session, run up and create the high of the day during the New York session around the London Close, then run back down and clear the initial low that was created during the London session. Ideally it can pan out after the market is in exhaustion based on the higher time frame's dominant trend.
4. The Range to New York Open / London Close Rally Template
Generally this template is to be expected on days with high or medium impact news events like interest rate announcements, etc. Ahead of these events price will remain in consolidation during the Asian and London sessions. Lows will be cleared initially and after the news price explodes into a directional move.
5. The Consolidation Raid on News Release Template
Unfolding during the New York session on days with high impact news, mostly FOMC press releases. During and shortly after the news old highs and lows of prior consolidation levels will be taken out. Ideally buy when a low is taken out and sell when a prior high was breached.
6. The London Swing to Seek & Destroy Template
This is the kind of day that won’t make you money. The Market Makers clear intention is to take out both buyers and sellers. Initially it would give you a London Open opportunity and setup, but very likely that won’t come to fruition. The narrow range zig-zag template lasts throughout the New York session and will oftentimes create an inside day. The template is usually applied in the middle or at the end of a larger price swing.
Reference:
Michael J. Huddleston (2015) - ICT Intraday Trading Templates.
See also:
Michael J. Huddleston (2015) - ICT Intraday Trading Templates.
See also:
Sunday, May 28, 2023
Trading the Pump & Dump Pattern | Cameron Benson
I'm going to show you that pattern that I use every single day on every single trade, whether I'm going long or short. The pattern that I'm referring to is the pump & dump and the dump & pump pattern. Every single market movement is either a pump & dump or a dump & pump pattern, and all trade setups are based on these two patterns.
Markets are fractal, and this pattern is going to occur on the weekly and the daily time frame, on the 4 hour, the 15-minute, the 30 second chart, etc. It doesn't matter: whatever you're looking at, this pattern is going to occur.
I use larger setups and then I start to break things down: I look at the date and day in the month, I look at the three-week cycle, at the three-day cycle, at what day are we in the week, and I look at the weekly range, what is the high and the low of the week. Are we working the low, are we working the high?
I use larger setups and then I start to break things down: I look at the date and day in the month, I look at the three-week cycle, at the three-day cycle, at what day are we in the week, and I look at the weekly range, what is the high and the low of the week. Are we working the low, are we working the high?
Any unidirectional move – up or down - ends with a consolidation, followed by a break in market structure and a continuation to anther pivot level and/or it is followed by a reversal.
Three pushes to a high, a sideways consolidation, a break in market structure to the downside, then the dump. A lot of times the market will return down at least to the 50% retracement level or down to the level where the pump started or even below.
Reference:
Cameron Benson (May 27, 2023) - 15 Minute Talk That Will Change How You View The Market [Pump And Dump].
Cameron Benson (May 27, 2023) - Pump And Dump & Dump And Pump [Pdf-Slideshow of the above video].
Cameron Benson (May 27, 2023) - 15 Minute Talk That Will Change How You View The Market [Pump And Dump].
Cameron Benson (May 27, 2023) - Pump And Dump & Dump And Pump [Pdf-Slideshow of the above video].
See also:
Thursday, April 27, 2023
The 3 Day Cycle | Cameron Benson
The 3 Day Cycle is a recurring market cycle, that when identified, can be the groundwork of a trade setup. It consists of 3 days, and begins with a false break at the current weeks high or low. In his Best Trade Setups Playbook Stacey Burke described the 3 Day Cycle setups as either pump and dumps, or dump and pumps: "They [the market makers] pump, pump, pump, go sideways and drop a bit, one more small pump, then a dump. The dump can go straight down, fast. The pump up, may often be hard to trade on the first day, the price action can be choppy, and back and forth, a slow grinding auction. Other times, you are forced to "chase the move."
Finding Day 1:
Look for a false break above or below a previous day's high or low AT THE HIGH OR LOW OF THE WEEK.
Attributes of Day 1:
1. Breaks Below/Above Previous Days High or Low at the high of the week, and the day closes back inside of previous days range.
a. Sub Variation: Breaks through previous days level and days closes above/below that level.
Look for a false break above or below a previous day's high or low AT THE HIGH OR LOW OF THE WEEK.
Attributes of Day 1:
1. Breaks Below/Above Previous Days High or Low at the high of the week, and the day closes back inside of previous days range.
a. Sub Variation: Breaks through previous days level and days closes above/below that level.
The following day, price comes back inside of the the range from 2 days ago and closes.
2. Can become a First Green Day or First Red Day (Signal for following day).
3. Day 3 sometimes turns into Day 1 at the close of the day.
2. Can become a First Green Day or First Red Day (Signal for following day).
3. Day 3 sometimes turns into Day 1 at the close of the day.
Attributes of Day 2 of the 3 Day Cycle:
Day 2 can be either
1. Continuation in direction of false break; or:
2. It can turn into ...
a.) a First Red Day (FGD)
b.) a First Green Day (FRD)
c.) an Inside Day
d.) a Trend Day
Areas of Interest:
1. High of the Day/Low of the Day (HOD/LOD)
2. High of the Session/Low of the Session (HOS/LOS)
3. Outside Day/Inside Day (Was there a false break?) (Act as Support/Resistance)
4. Low Bear/High Bull (Support/Resistance)
Day 2 Trade Setups:
Day 2 can be either
1. Continuation in direction of false break; or:
2. It can turn into ...
a.) a First Red Day (FGD)
b.) a First Green Day (FRD)
c.) an Inside Day
d.) a Trend Day
Areas of Interest:
1. High of the Day/Low of the Day (HOD/LOD)
2. High of the Session/Low of the Session (HOS/LOS)
3. Outside Day/Inside Day (Was there a false break?) (Act as Support/Resistance)
4. Low Bear/High Bull (Support/Resistance)
Day 2 Trade Setups:
- Long/Short Squeeze
- Parabolic Trend Trade
- High of the Session/Low of the Session (HOD/LOD) Trade
- High of the Day/Low of the Day (HOD/LOD)
- Low Hanging Fruit (LHF) Continuation (Trend Trade)
- Parabolic Trend Trade
- High of the Session/Low of the Session (HOD/LOD) Trade
- High of the Day/Low of the Day (HOD/LOD)
- Low Hanging Fruit (LHF) Continuation (Trend Trade)
Method:
1. Support/Resistance References:
a. Low Bear/High Bull
b. Previous Days High/Low
c. HOD/LOD
2. Measure 3 Levels of rise/fall from Low/High of day for potential strike zone.
3. Use Support/Resistance References as additional confluence.
Attributes of Day 3 of the 3 Day Cycle:
1. Day 3 is the last day of the 3 Day Cycle.
2. A lot of times Day 3 can turn into Day 1, either on the current day or the next day
1. Day 3 is the last day of the 3 Day Cycle.
2. A lot of times Day 3 can turn into Day 1, either on the current day or the next day
(Reset of the Day Count).
3. Day 3 can either become a blow off trend continuation day (in the direction of the trend) or a reversal day.
Trade Setups:
1. Parabolic/Capitulation Trend
2. Reversal HOW/LOW
3. LHF Continuation (Trend Trade)
Areas of Interest:
1. Low/High of week
2. Previous Days High/Low (Support/Resistance/Trapped Volume)
3. High/Low of Day
4. High Bull/Low Bear (Support/Resistance)
5. OD/ID (Outside Day/Inside Day)
3. Day 3 can either become a blow off trend continuation day (in the direction of the trend) or a reversal day.
Trade Setups:
1. Parabolic/Capitulation Trend
2. Reversal HOW/LOW
3. LHF Continuation (Trend Trade)
Areas of Interest:
1. Low/High of week
2. Previous Days High/Low (Support/Resistance/Trapped Volume)
3. High/Low of Day
4. High Bull/Low Bear (Support/Resistance)
5. OD/ID (Outside Day/Inside Day)
Reference:
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See also:
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