May 24 to June 5: Fifth-Ranked Bullish S&P Seasonal Period | Wayne Whaley

My Top Ten Seasonal Model evaluates the performance of every time frame in the year, from 7 to 35 calendar days, and identifies the top 10 mutually exclusive periods.

May 24 to June 5, S&P positive in 37 of 50 years with 1.21% average return

and only one 3%+ loss, while Nasdaq averaged 1.77% with 38 up periods.

May 24 to June 5, which I refer to as the Post-Memorial Day Rally, is my 5th-ranked S&P seasonal trade of the year for both the S&P and the Nasdaq when comparing all time frames across the year. 

 

Notably, over the last 50 years, the S&P experienced only one 3% loss (1981) during this period, versus ten different years that recorded 3% gains. The last ten cases have been positive.

 

Wayne Whaley, May 24, 2026.

 

See also:

TPR (May 19, 2026) - Pre- and Post-Memorial Day Seasonal Patterns in US Stock Indexes. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (May 1, 2026) - May Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

S&P 500 Four-Year Election Cycle: Ranking All 48 Months | Wayne Whaley

If you are into Election Cycle tendencies, you might possibly find this study of interest. I have S&P data back to its origin in 1957 and S&P proxy data, via Dow analog, back to 1930. Dating back to 1930, I took the time to calculate my personal performance rating for each of the 48 months of the Four-Year Election Cycle, which is based on an average with outliers underweighted. The rating measure ranges from -100 to +100 in -3 to +3 standard deviation fashion.

Pre-election Januarys lead, midterm election Junes lag, with 2026 resilience challenging weak June seasonals.  

Reasonable chance of posting a win this year?

The left side of the table above contains the top 24 rated months through April of 2026 of the Four-Year Election Cycle in the sample set, while the right side contains the bottom 24 months. The 3% column is the performance in those months which had a 3% move in either direction. Likewise for the 5% column.

Four of the top ten months in this study occur in Pre-Election years, with Januarys (20-4) at the top. While four of the bottom ten occur in Midterm Election years. Owing largely to the seven Junes of those 24 in the test set which incurred 5% losses, June of Midterm Election years brings up the rear.

The S&P has exhibited a resilience to many a headwind in 2026 which, in my humble opinion, merits respect, and the weak June midterm election seasonals should be weighed against many a traditional momentum-based seasonal study that gives June a reasonable chance of posting a win this year. Tis your call.

Wayne Whaley, May 23, 2026.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

50% DJIA Gain Possible from 2026 Low to 2027 High | Jeff Hirsch

Historical data going back to 1914 shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has typically fallen about 20% from its peak in the year following a presidential election to its trough during the subsequent midterm year. Weakness has been most persistent in Q2 and Q3 of Midterm years. Regardless of the precise level reached, the advance that normally follows is a very attractive entry point for position traders (see tab and chart below).

% Change in DJIA between Midterm year Low and High of following year, 1914-2023.

Within the Four-Year Presidential Cycle, the most favorable phase begins late in the Midterm year: The strongest consecutive two quarters historically run from Q4 of the Midterm year into the Q1 of the Pre-Election year, delivering average gains of 46.3% for the Dow.

 

  S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

Q2 of the Pre-Election year is also notably strong—ranking as the third-best quarter of the Four-Year Presidential Cycle—effectively extending this high-performance window to three quarters, from Midterm Q4 2026 through Pre-Election Q2 2027. 

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 11, 2026) - January Barometer Rules: 2026 Midterm Year Forecast Update (webinar). 

 

Q4 2026: Sweet Spot of the 4-Year Presidential Cycle.

Assuming the future will be but an averaged past (1973-2026).   

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 27, 2026) - February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Bill Sarubbi (January 23, 2026) - 2026 Market Forecast: S&P 500, Crude, Notes, Gold, and Bitcoin.

Ned Davis Research (December 31, 2025) - 2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential, and Decennial Cycles.