Friday, September 28, 2012

Major Stock Market Rallies of last 111 Years Compared
The Dow made another post-financial crisis rally late last week. To provide some further perspective to the current Dow rally (and in response to several requests), all major market rallies of the last 111 years are plotted on today's chart. 

Each dot represents a major stock market rally as measured by the Dow with the majority of rallies referred to by a label which states the year in which the rally began ... a rally is being defined as an advance that follows a 30% decline (i.e. a major bear market) ... the Dow has begun a major rally 13 times over the past 111 years which equates to an average of one rally every 8.5 years ... As it stands right now, the current Dow rally that began in March 2009 (blue dot labeled you are here) would be classified as well below average in both duration and magnitude. However, when compared to the most recent post-major bear market rally (i.e. the rally that began in 2002), the current rally has already surpassed it in magnitude and required less time to do so.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Relationships between Centimeter, Inch, Year, and Month

What do inches and centimeters have to do with astronomy? That's what first popped into my mind when I discovered this amazing relationship. Suppose you have a circle with a diameter measured in centimeters and a magnitude equal to exactly 10 synodic months. We'll use the value of 29.53 for the length of the synodic month. It turns out that the magnitude of the circumference of the circle, measured in inches matches the length of the tropical year in days.

10 × 29.53 cm × π = 927.71 cm
927.71 cm ÷ 2.54 cm/inch = 365.24 inches 


Friday, September 21, 2012

Russian Scientists on the New Moon Effect

... It is shown that fine structure of distributions of fluctuations in different processes depends on position of the Earth with respect of the Moon. The same form of histogram was observed at New Moon moment independently of geographic position of laboratory and local time. Possible origin of the phenomenon is discussed.
... A study of the time series from which the histograms were built by conventional mathematical methods indicates that, as it might be expected, radioactive decay is a quite random process, which obeys the Poisson statistics. However, the shape of the histograms is not random. Comparison of the shapes of histograms in many thousands of pairwise combinations revealed the following patterns:

1. Near-zone effect - histograms of a particular shape are often observed successively; 
2. Cosmophysical periodicity - histograms of a particular shape often appear with periodicity of 24 h (”solar day”), 23 h 56 min (”sidereal day”), approximately 27 days, and 365 days; 
3. Synchronous on local time scale - histograms of similar shapes constructed from the results of independent measurements of diverse processes (from biochemical reactions to radioactive decay) performed at remote geographical locations, are often observed at the same local time.

However extravagant these results may look, they do not contradict the basic concepts of physics ... We believe that the fine structure of histograms results from the interference of some wave processes due to the influence of celestial bodies. The failure to observe similar effects in Full Moon periods suggests that ”New-Moon effect” is due to the screening effect of the Sun on the Earth rather than to an increase in tidal forces.

S. E. Shnoll et al.(2006): The specific form of histograms presenting the distribution of data of α-decay measurements appears simultaneously in the moment of New Moon in different points from Arctic to Antarctic. Lomonosov State University, Physical Department, Moscow & Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino, Moscow Region.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Baltic Dry Index Collapsing | Western & Chinese Equity Markets Diverge

The Baltic Dry Index became entirely detached from stocks and commodities 2 years ago, and continues to break down preparing to take out it’s all time low set in early 2009 in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers - financial collapse. The Baltic Dry Index is actually collapsing in the midst of what is typically the strongest shipping season of the year. As the global shipping index prepares to take out 660 to the downside, how low might it be by March 2013? 400? 300?  

September 2008 launched an extraordinary chain of events: General Motors, the world’s largest company, went bust. Washington Mutual became the world’s largest bank failure. Lehman Brothers became the world’s largest bankruptcy ever. The damage inherent to the nature of Credit Default Swaps and Credit Default Obligations quickly spread around the world, shattering global confidence in the fundamental structures of the international economy. Millions of Americans have lost their homes, tens of millions of Americans can't find a decent job and 44 million Americans are on food stamps.

Gabriella Mittelman points to the peculiar fact that US-stocks and most of the associated equity markets in IMF- and FED-dominated countries experience an inflation-driven boom and are rocketing, while stocks in China keep falling since October 2007

However, China is the rising power amidst this camouflaged world depression, and Zhuangzi said: "There is nothing on earth which does not rise and fall, but it never perishes altogether. The Yin and the Yang, and the four seasons, keep to their proper order … such is the law of creation."

SPX vs Mars - North Node Cycle

Hard aspects between Mars and the Vedic Dragon (= Rahu = Lunar North Node) oftentimes go along with CITs in financial markets (HERE). A conjunction is due on October 2nd - the next projected 10 Day Hurst-Cycle Low.


02.06.2011 00:27 (Sun) = MAR 45° North Node
03.29.2011 12:09 (Tue) = MAR 90° North Node
05.22.2011 15:00 (Sun) = MAR 135° North Node
07.23.2011 13:21 (Sat) = MAR 180° North Node
09.23.2011 12:30 (Fri) = MAR 135° North Node
12.13.2011 01:07 (Tue) = MAR 90° North Node
03.19.2012 15:27 (Mon) = MAR 90° North Node
04.30.2012 18:52 (Mon) = MAR 90° North Node
08.03.2012 07:42 (Fri) = MAR 45° North Node
10.02.2012 10:51 (Tue) = MAR 0° North Node
12.01.2012 09:01 (Sat) = MAR 45° North Node

01.24.2013 14:20 (Thu) = MAR 90° North Node
03.15.2013 22:58 (Fri) = MAR 135° North Node
05.13.2013 01:15 (Mon) = MAR 180° North Node
07.12.2013 07:56 (Fri) = MAR 135° North Node
09.10.2013 20:37 (Tue) = MAR 90° North Node
11.23.2013 10:38 (Sat) = MAR 45° North Node
07.13.2014 20:19 (Sun) = MAR 0° North Node
09.20.2014 07:18 (Sat) = MAR 45° North Node
11.20.2014 06:00 (Thu) = MAR 90° North Node
01.10.2015 14:15 (Sat) = MAR 135° North Node

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution. Also credits to Raj Times and Cycles

Fake Gold Bars

New York News | NYC Breaking News

Jeffrey Hirsh - Presidential Election Year Cycle in 2012

Stock Trader’s Almanac 2012

Presidential Election Years 2nd Best in Four-Year-Cycle: It is no mere coincidence that the last two years (pre-election year and election year) of the 44 administrations since 1833 produced a total net market gain of 718.5%, dwarfing the 273.1% gain of the first two years of these administrations.

Presidential elections every four years have a profound impact on the economy and the stock market. Wars, recessions and bear markets tend to start or occur in the first half of the term; prosperous times and bull markets, in the latter half. After nine straight annual Dow gains during the millennial bull, the four-year election cycle reasserted its overarching domination of market behavior the last 11 years. However, 2008 was the worst presidential election year on record.

Only Two Losses In Last Seven Months Of Election Years: Regardless which Party is victorious, the last seven months have seen gains on the S&P 500 in 13 of the 15 presidential election years since 1950. One loss was in 2000 when the election's outcome was delayed for 36 tumultuous days, though the Dow did gain ground in the last seven months of 2000. Financial crisis and the worst bear market since the Great Depression impacted 2008.

First Five Months Better When Party Retains White House: Since 1901 there have been 27 presidential elections. When the Party in power retained the White House 16 times, the Dow was up 1.5% on average for the first five months, compared to a 4.6% loss the 11 times the Party was ousted. Since 1950, retaining the White House 7 times brought an average gain of 1.9% compared to –0.1% the other 8 times.

War Can Be A Major Factor In Presidential Races: Democrats used to lose the White House on foreign shores (1920 WW1, 1952 Korea, 1968 Vietnam, 1980 Iran Crisis). Republicans on the other hand lost it here at home (1912 Party split, 1932 Depression, 1960 Economy, 1976 Watergate). Homeland issues dominated elections the last three decades with the Republican loss in 1992 (Economy), and the Democratic loss in 2000 (Scandal), and the Republican loss in 2008 (Economy). As we've learned over the years, it all depends on who the candidates are in 2012.

Market Bottoms Two Years After A Presidential Election: A takeover of the White House by the opposing party in the past 50 years (1960, 1968, 1976, 1980, 1992, 2000, 2008) has resulted in a bottom within two years, except 1994, a flat year. When incumbent parties retained power (1964, 1972, 1984, 1988, 1996, 2004) stocks often bottomed within two years later as well, except 1984 (three years, 1987) and 2004 (one year, flat 2005). Whatever the outcome in 2012, we could see a bottom by 2014.

Only Six Election Year Declines Greater Than 5% Since 1896: Presidential election years are the second best performing year of the four-year cycle. Incumbent parties lost power in five of the six years with declines greater than 5%. Five losses occurred at the end of the second term. FDR defeated Hoover in 1932 and was re-elected to an unprecedented third term as WWII ravaged Europe. Election year 2012 marks the end of the incumbent party’s first term, improving the prospects for a solid year.

Solar Cycle 24 vs Global Protest, Rebellion & Revolution

Alexander Chizhevsky divided the eleven year sunspot cycle into four social periods: 

Period I: (approximately 3 years, minimum sunspot activity).  Peace, lack of unity among the masses, election of conservatives, autocratic, minority rule.  
Period II: (approx. 2 years, increasing sunspot activity).  Increasing mass excitability, new leaders rise, new ideas and challenges to the elite.  

Period III: (Approximately 3 years, maximum sunspot activity).  Maximum excitability, election of liberals or radicals, mass demonstrations, riots, revolutions, wars and resolution of most pressing demands.  Right now we are in THIS period.  

Period IV: (Approximately 3 years, decreasing sunspot activity).  Decrease in excitability, masses become apathetic, seek peace.

Chizhevsky did not believe solar disturbances caused discontent as much as they acted as detonators that set off the smoldering discontent of the masses - discontent often channeled into war by their rulers.  Nor did he deny that even during minimum solar activity some people would rebel against intolerable conditions or that nations would seek advantage through war and conquest. Some have since noted that the number of sunspots during any period may not be as significant as whether there is a rapid increase in the numbers, triggering unexpected passions.  

See also HERE & HERE & HERE & HERE

Solar Cycle 24 vs Food + Gold + Stocks = Inflationary Peak 2013

... Alexander Chizhevsky's analysis of 2500 years of human history and solar cycles revealed that the period into and around solar maximums (4 years) was historically one of protest, revolution and war. Last year's North African and Middle Eastern revolts fit with this, as does the prospect of food-price based protest and conflict into 2013.

... As we stand in September 2012, energy and metals are lagging soft commodities as supportive evidence for an inflationary spike in 2013. Global economic weakness is the reason, whilst grains have accelerated largely on extreme weather conditions. In response to the economic slowdown, central banks have cut interest rates and renewed stimulus (such as China's infrastucture programme and US Quantitative Easing (QE) 3). 

This in turn should be reflationary, which should lift commodities as a class. In reponse to the US Fed's announcement of renewed QE, five year inflation breakeven expectations surged, as shown in the chart below. Official inflation, CPI, has historically followed this indicator with a lag, suggesting inflation should accelerate as we enter 2013. 

... 2013 is forecast to be the solar maximum, and if history repeats, we should see an inflationary peak close to the solar peak. As the chart shows, peaks in inflation correspond to solar maximums and troughs in inflation to solar minimums, historically. 

The biggest peaks in inflation corresponded to secular commodities peaks, as we might expect due to commodity prices fuelling inflation. These secular commodities peaks all occurred close to the solar maximums, with one luni-solar cycle between each, which is around 33 years. These ultimate peaks in inflation / commodity prices were preceded by a shadow peak 5 years prior. 

The last secular commodities peak was 1980. One luni-solar cycle later is 2013. The solar maximum for solar cycle 24 is forecast for 2013, 5 years later than 2008, when we experienced a (shadow) inflation/commodities peak. 

Drawing together secular, solar and inflation history, I can therefore forecast a secular commodities peak and an inflation peak in 2013. Regular readers know this is a forecast that I have held for some time, and as we close in on the end of 2012, we see increasingly supportive evidence for its fulfillment, as documented above: forthcoming food price inflation from current soft commodity price rises; social conflict from food price inflation; central bank policies of reflation and paper/hard asset revaluations. This table shows how close the inflation peaks were in relation to the official solar peaks: between 2 months before and 4 months after.

Credits: John Hampson - September 19, 2012

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

David Hickson - ST Hurst Outlook

(15 September 2012) The analysis dilemma we are presented with this week has to do with the shape of the current 18-month cycle. (If you know me well enough you probably guessed it had to do with cycle shapes!) Here is the analysis that we have been working with for the past while:  

The shapes of the 18-month cycle: in Chart 1 I have marked with different colors the shapes of the current and last two 18-month cycles. The first (white) cycle was bullish as would be expected when rising out of a 54-month cycle trough. The second (blue) cycle was less bullish, as expected.  
The current (yellow) cycle is the problem: according to this analysis it is expected to be less bullish than the previous cycle, and it isn’t. Now one might argue that the markets are not perfect, and that given the decline in the value of the US Dollar recently it is only natural that the cycles are being distorted. That is true, and might turn out to be the answer, but there is another possibility: that the US markets are responding to a six-year harmonic echo of a cycle. I presented this concept originally over a year ago, and have mentioned it occasionally since then (see the ST Outlook for 14 April 2012 and the ST Outlook for 11 August 2012).  

The six-year cycle is not a part of Hurst’s original nominal model, and many Hurst purists will have reservations about it, but I believe that it is an harmonic echo (4 x 18-month cycles resonating with 1/3rd of an 18-year cycle). Here is an updated look at this analysis: 

The 54-month cycle trough in October 2011: This analysis expects the current 18-month cycle to be bullish in shape because of the effect of the longer cycles. I have drawn arrows on the chart showing that effect. It is the strong bullish impetus of the 54-month cycle that might be giving the current 18-month cycle its bullish shape. Which of these two analyses is the right one?  At the moment it is too early to tell, but before you throw your arms up in despair at the complexities of cyclic analysis let me remind you of something very important: the difference in implication between these analyses is a matter of degree of price move, and subtleties in the developing cycle shape (earlier or later peaks, relatively higher or lower troughs). Both analyses have the same short and medium term implications, and both analyses interpret the current upwards move as approaching a peak before a fall into a 20-week cycle trough.The only difference between them is how far that bounce is expected to carry, and whether the impending peak will occur earlier or later. Chart 3 and Chart 4 are close up views of both analyses: Those white arrows show the expected downward move into the 20-week nest-of-lows. Note that both analyses expect a peak to form in the market, which is why I continue to expect the same.

Peter Eliades - Most Important Top in Market History

... Our final comment relates to our judgment on the market's longer term prognosis. If our interpretation of Terry Laundry's theory of the advance-decline line is valid, the top we are predicting will soon occur should be a top of major importance. It should mark the end of a pattern that has been in effect for over 50 years. It might not be an exaggeration to say it could be the most important top in market history ... 

Credits: Peter Eliades, Sep. 14, 2012

Monday, September 17, 2012

Seasonality - Update

Credits: Mike Burk's Technical Market Comments
This week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of September during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle. 

Mike Burk's table at right shows the average daily return on a percentage basis (1956-2008) has been negative by all measures (prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored).

The seasonal pattern suggests
the major averages will be lower on Friday September 21 as well as a sharp decline over the next several weeks.

However, the question is: Will the QE3 hype continue? Can the S&P 500 keep going higher?

Yes, they can! In the SPX the downward move last Friday from 1474 to 1461 was clearly corrective, and a new high by Equinox (HERE & HERE) is very likely

Saturday, September 15, 2012

S&P 500 Today = Commercial's Net Positions in Eurodollars 1 Year Ago

In May 2011 Tom McClellan unveiled a sensational discovery:
There are some jewels in the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:  ... Commercial traders' net positions in eurodollar futures shifted forward by one year foretell the the stock market.
... Let's pause a minute to let that deep point sink in. Commercial eurodollar traders seem to "know" a year in advance what the stock market is going to do.  It is not a perfect correlation, but it is a darned good one.  I'm not sure what makes this work, but I have seen that it has worked great since about 1997 ... The term "eurodollars" should not be confused with the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro
Projected CITs for the S&P 500 are (since COT data is weekly, CITs are +/-):

09/13/2012 high
09/20/2012 low
10/18/2012 high
11/08/2012 low
11/29/2012 HIGH of the Year
12/20/2012 low
01/03/2013 high

Tony Caldaro - Bull Market High Mid-Late 2013  

In June Tony Caldaro wrote: "For every $20 bln the FED purchases in long term debt the stock market rises 1%", and projected 1556 for the SPX (HERE). Now with QE3 out in the open, he outlines in his latest Weekend Update: 

 ... we will maintain our time window of mid-late 2013. Yet we believe the bull market will end about one to three months before QE 3 ends. The reason for this is the market’s previous reaction to the ending of QE programs. The market initially topped in Apr10 when QE 1 was ended in Jun10. The market also topped in Mar/May11 when QE 2 was ended in Jun11. The market is quite likely to repeat this same pattern. 

In regard to price, we will again maintain our SPX 1536 to 1556 target. Yet we believe this is now a minimum range rather than a maximum range for a bull market top. In fact, we would not be surprised if the market approached this range in 2012. Should this occur our bull market price target will be raised to SPX 1650-1700. 

Friday, September 14, 2012

Stock Market Rallies since 1900: Where are we now?

The Dow made another post-financial crisis rally high Thursday on the news that the Fed will embark on a third round of quantitative easing (a.k.a. QE3). To provide some perspective on the current Dow rally, all major market rallies of the last 112 years are plotted on today's chart. Each dot represents a major stock market rally as measured by the Dow -- with a rally being defined as an advance that followed a 15% correction (i.e. a major correction). As today's chart illustrates, the Dow has begun a major rally 28 times over the past 112 years which equates to an average of one rally every four years. Also, most major rallies (78%) resulted in a gain of between 30% and 150% (29.8% to 150.5% to be exact) and lasted between 200 and 800 trading days (9.5 months to 3.2 years) - highlighted in today's chart with a light blue shaded box. As it stands right now, the current Dow rally (hollow red dot labeled you are here) which began in October 2011 (since it followed a 16.8% correction), would be classified as well below average in both duration and magnitude. Credits:

Market Anthropology - High-Water Guesstimate

Considering the Presidents poll numbers have basically tracked the equity markets, I would guesstimate this week will be the high-water mark for Obama in the polls. Going forward, the election - and the markets, should get much tougher to handicap. 


Thursday, September 13, 2012

Stock Market vs Cosmic Rays - The Sun paints with Solar Wind as a Brush


OT - Sunspots vs Climate

This chart shows the relationship between solar radiation and daytime high temperatures.  

Scientists have been studying solar influences on the climate for more than 5,000 years. Chinese imperial astronomers kept detailed sunspot records, and noticed that more sunspots meant warmer weather. In 1801 Wilhelm Herschel (discoverer of Uranus) observed that when there were fewer spots, the price of wheat soared. He surmised that less light and heat from the sun resulted in reduced harvests.  


Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Tom McClellan: Election Year Differences

The current performance of the S&P 500 looks a lot like the typical performance during an election year with a 1st term president running for reelection. 

The minor movements of the S&P 500 seem to be arriving about 2-3 trading days late versus what the pattern says, but that small lag is at least consistent over time.


Looking ahead, this version of the Presidential Cycle Pattern says that we should expect to see a choppy uptrend continuing toward election day, perhaps with some significant "texture" along the way.  

The strong correlation up until now suggests that this pattern is working reliably.  Once we see how the election turns out, we can then figure out which pattern to follow starting in November. 


SPX vs Delta - Update

A high (ITD #3) around Equinox - a Gann Natural Trading Day clustered with more astro-events (HERE & HERE) - would also be perfectly in line with the seasonal pattern:

2008-11-05 High + 1416 CD = Sep 22 (Sat) = 4 Lunar Year Cycle (LTD)
2011-10-04 Low + 354 CD = Sep 22 (Sat) = 1 Lunar Year Cycle inverted (MTD)
2012-05-29 High + 118 CD = Sep 24 (Mon) = 4 Lunation Cycle (ITD)

Though THE high projected for late August is not in yet, the 1972-2012 correlation = 40 year Cycle has increased to 89%

SPX vs Solar Activity

Last 30 Days Daily Solar Data
Solar flares and CMEs are intense flashes of extreme radiation emanating from the Sun.  

The ejected material is a plasma consisting primarily of electrons and protons, but may contain small quantities of heavier elements such as helium, oxygen, and even iron. 

Most solar flares and coronal mass ejections originate in magnetically active regions around visible sunspot groupings. 

Near solar maxima the Sun produces about three CMEs every day, whereas near solar minima there is about one CME every five days (see also HERE).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
Solar flares are classified according to the peak flux as Class A, -B, -C, -M or -X Flares (ranged from small to large). Daily Solar Data, a 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity, as well as a 45 Day F10.7cm Flux Forecast are provided free of charge by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

For the purpose of market timing only Class M and -X flares are relevant. However, not every flare ejected by the Sun is directed towards the Earth. But if it is, the solar storm takes 2 days +/- to trigger a geomagnetic storm. In 2003, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta did a study on the effects of solar storms on stock market traders: "Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week’s stock returns for all US stock market indices."
Therefore, some 2 days +/- after an earth-directed Class M or Class X flare a drop in the stock markets should be expected.

So what about the latest Class M flares on September 8th and 9th? They will miss to hit the Earth (see also HERE). Instead various 10.7cm Flux Forecasts suggest the stock markets will keep wedging up into around the New Moon (Sep 15) or even the Equinox (Sep 22). Please note: Solar-, lunar- and other astro-indicators frequently fail around Equinoxes (inversion periods are: March 21 - April 7, , June 7 - July 7, September 9 - October 11, December 8 - January 6).

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Depressions compared: DJI post 1929 - Nikkei post 1989 - S&P 500 post 2000

The first chart shows an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when we adjust for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000.

Here is the nominal version to help clarify the impact of inflation and deflation, which varied significantly across these three markets.

This chart is the comparison from the 2007 nominal all-time high in the S&P 500. This series also includes the Nasdaq from the 2000 Tech Bubble peak.

As these charts illustrate, the SP 500 index of US large cap stocks has fared much better than the other indexes in this comparison.

Credits: The "Real" Mega-Bears by Doug Short - September 9, 2012 

SPX vs Alignments & Oppositions of Mercury-Venus-Jupiter-Earth

EAR and/or MER and/or VEN and/or JUP = 0°or 180° to EAR and/or MER and/or VEN and/or JUP [HELIO - MAXORB 1°]

07.29.2012 - 07.30.2012
08.12.2012 - 08.13.2012
09.10.2012 - 09.11.2012
09.20.2012 - 09.21.2012

10.04.2012 - 10.05.2012
10.21.2012 - 10.22.2012
11.18.2012 - 11.19.2012
11.20.2012 - 11.21.2012
12.03.2012 - 12.04.2012
12.18.2012 - 12.19.2012
01.03.2013 - 01.04.2013
01.16.2013 - 01.17.2013
01.18.2013 - 01.19.2013
02.17.2013 - 02.18.2013
02.28.2013 - 03.01.2013
03.04.2013 - 03.05.2013
03.28.2013 - 03.30.2013
04.04.2013 - 04.05.2013
05.12.2013 - 05.13.2013
05.16.2013 - 05.19.2013
06.19.2013 - 06.21.2013
07.03.2013 - 07.04.2013
07.10.2013 - 07.11.2013
08.05.2013 - 08.06.2013
08.25.2013 - 08.26.2013
09.11.2013 - 09.12.2013
10.02.2013 - 10.03.2013
10.20.2013 - 10.21.2013
11.02.2013 - 11.03.2013
12.22.2013 - 12.23.2013
12.29.2013 - 12.30.2013

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.

DJIA vs 35.21 Three Year Cycle

HighRev [Sep. 9th, 2012]: The 47 Year Cycle and the 35.21 Three Year Cycle are variations of the Kitchin Cycle. "I was originally working with a rough 7 year cycle working off the momentum lows on the technicals using the 2002-2003 lows and the 2008-2009 lows as my principal reference points, but that did not backtest well. 

As a result I started looking at the 4 Year Kitchin Cycle (which is really a 41 month cycle) that had failed in the late 1940’s, and when it revived, it was out of step with its previous cycle framework. In shifting the Kitchin cycle and using the 1932 low as the start date, the results were also lackluster. 

Since I wanted something that would tie in the 1932 low with the 2002 and 2009 lows, and also be fairly reliable in between, I discarded the Kitchin Cycle and started looking at variations. As a result, I came up with this “35.21 Three Year Cycle”, which in turn became the basis for the larger cycles and sub-cycles. 

I especially like the early cycle lows matching price lows, mid-cycle lows sometimes seeing inversions in a strongly trending environment, and late cycle lows oscillating between price lows and price highs. As with all cycles, there’s no such thing as perfection. Sometimes they come early, sometimes they come late, and sometimes they’re on time. The actual 47 year low came late with regards to the idealized low, but only missed by just over a 5% time window when looking at it on a century to century time frame, and that isn’t bad at all for a cycle low (and when looking at the 3 year cycle where there are a good many lows that came as much as 6 months early/late, that “miss” looks even better). Another thing I really like about this cycle is how the longer term 47 year cycle takes into account the two main secular bulls coming out of the 1932 lows. I also got the 1932, 2002, 2009, and a good many other important lows to “line up”, and that, in what I like to call, "a best fit" pattern."

OT - Impact & Explosion on Jupiter
Apparently, something hit Jupiter during the early hours of Sept. 10th (11:35 UT), igniting a ferocious fireball in the giant planet's cloudtops. Amateur astronomer Dan Peterson Racine, Wisconsin, saw it first through his Meade 12" LX200 telescope. "It was a bright white flash that lasted only 1.5 - 2 seconds," he reports. Another amateur astronomer, George Hall of Dallas, Texas, was video-recording Jupiter at the time, and he confirmed the fireball with this video screenshot (left).

The fireball was probably caused by a small asteroid or comet hitting Jupiter. Similar impacts were observed in June and August 2010. An analysis of those earlier events suggests that Jupiter is frequently struck by 10 meter-class asteroids -one of the hazards of orbiting near the asteroid belt and having such a strong gravitational pull.

Astronomers around the world will now begin monitoring the impact site for signs of debris - either the cindery remains of the impactor or material dredged up from beneath Jupiter's cloud tops. Some impacts do produce such debris, while others don't. See also HERE & HERE 

Many think this is how and where planets and moons are created, and Immanuel Velikovsky's Worlds in Collision (1950) comes to light, proposing that around the 15th century BCE, Venus was ejected from Jupiter as a comet or comet-like object, passed near Earth (an actual collision is not mentioned).

The object changed Earth's orbit and axis, causing innumerable catastrophes which were mentioned in early mythologies and religions around the world. 

Fifty-two years later, it passed close by again, stopping the Earth's rotation for a while and causing more catastrophes. Then, in the 8th and 7th centuries BCE, Mars (itself displaced by Venus) made close approaches to the Earth; this incident caused a new round of disturbances and disasters. 

After that, the current "celestial order" was established. The courses of the planets stabilized over the centuries and Venus gradually became a "normal" planet. See also HERE

On September 9th the San Cristobal volcano in Nicaragua has rumbled to life with three explosions, forcing the evacuation of 3,000 residents. 

San Cristobal, located 135 km northwest of Managua, is one of the country’s most active volcanoes. Since Thursday, when an earthquake of 7.6-magnitude rocked neighboring Costa Rica and was also felt in Nicaragua.
People are now fearing the powerful quake would have an “impact on the activation” on several other active volcanoes in the region. See also HERE

Solar Activity vs Earthquakes and Volcanoes: When solar activity increases, the corpuscular emission and solar magnetic field strength increase rapidly as well, inducing ring currents in various layers of Earth, particularly, in lithosphere and astheposphere.  Currents in asthenosphere appeared as a result of solar activity increase cause mantle heating, its plasticity growth and as a result convection currents acceleration. Convection currents acceleration leads to spreading acceleration, and increase of mantle temperature – to its heat expansion while Earth extension is taken place due to spreading. In the periods of solar activity decrease the ring currents magnitude inducing in the mantle, decreases as well and as a result there decreases temperature and Earth compression, accompanying by the process of subduction. See also HERE

Researchers have noticed coincidence between sunspot minima and occurrences of major earthquakes or volcanoes.The Earth’s iron core (source of the Earth’s magnetic field, i.e. the Earth’s dynamo) does not rotate around the same axes as the Earth itself, hence dislocation of magnetic poles. Jupiter-Saturn gravitational forces pull the Sun around its barycentre. The same forces pull the Earth’s mass centre away from its orbital trajectory, the eccentricity of the Earth’s iron core to the rest of its bodily mass causing drift of its magnetic poles. It follows that a certain major planets configuration will cause disturbances within the Earth’s interior which may initiate major earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. See also HERE & HERE