Saturday, January 16, 2016
Friday, January 8, 2016
DJIA In 4th Longest Bull Market Since 1900 - UBS: Sell Stocks, Buy Gold!
[...] As of 2017, gold could profit from the US dollar moving in a major top and starting a bear market [...] In 2015, the bounce in gold was weaker than expected. However, in all these cases we made it clear that we just expect a bear market rally before resuming its dominant cyclical bear trend. Generally, our cyclical roadmap and our long-term call on gold of the last few years has not changed. A potential bottom in 2016 bottom could be a rather powerful bottom, since together with a four-year cycle low we have also an eight-year cycle low projection for this year. In this context we expect a potential 2016 low in gold to be the basis of a new multi-year bull market. Source: UBS (Jan 06, 2016)
Tuesday, January 5, 2016
2016 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA
Since 1834 the U.S.-stock market has been positive 10 (56%) out of 18 times in the 6th year of every decade, and the average annual gain of a 6th year was 3.74%. Since the 1970s the DJIA gained 16% to 26% during the 6th year of each decade. On average the DJIA's 6th year in the Decennial Cycle, the Annual or Seasonal Cycle and the Presidential Cycle are all positive. In the average Decennial Cycle the DJIA scores the Low of the 6th Year in late January, rises into mid July, drops into September, before surging for the rest of the year. The Presidential Cycle drops from an early January High to a late February Low, rises into early April, drops to late May, rises again into early September, drops to early October before rising into the year-end.
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| Credits: Seasonal Charts |
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| Credits: www.realinvestmentadvice.com |
Monday, January 4, 2016
When Not To Put Money In The Bank - Negative Interest Rates in Europe
European Central Bank -0.3%
Swiss National Bank -0.75%;
Danish Central bank -0.75%
Swedish Central Bank -1.1%
Swiss National Bank -0.75%;
Danish Central bank -0.75%
Swedish Central Bank -1.1%
Why are they in negative territory? For all these countries it is the exchange rate against the Euro
that is important. Negative interest rates weaken a country’s currency
and make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. Furthermore central
banks could be trying to prevent a slide into deflation, or a spiral of
falling prices that could derail the recovery.
In
theory, interest rates below zero should reduce borrowing costs for
companies and households, driving demand for loans. In practice, there’s
a risk that the policy might do more harm than good. If banks make more
customers pay to hold their money, cash may go under the mattress
instead. Janet Yellen, the U.S. Federal Reserve chair, said at her
confirmation hearing in November 2013 that even a deposit rate that’s
positive but close to zero could disrupt the money markets that help
fund financial institutions. Two years later, she said that a change in
economic circumstances could put negative rates “on the table” in the
U.S., and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said he could now cut the
benchmark rate below the current 0.5 percent if necessary. Deutsche
Bank economists note that negative rates haven’t sparked the bank runs
or cash hoarding some had feared, in part because banks haven’t passed
them on to their customers. But there’s still a worry that when banks
absorb the cost themselves, it squeezes the profit margin between their
lending and deposit rates, and might make them even less willing to
lend. Ever-lower rates also fuel concern that countries are engaged in a
currency war of competitive devaluations. Source: Bloomberg
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