Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Reasons to Expect the USD to Continue to Fall


Bryce Coward (Jul 18, 2017) - The Euro has spent the better part of the last decade being overvalued vs the USD. In 2015 the Euro finally became undervalued and early in 2017 it became one standard deviation undervalued. If the Euro rallied another 10% from here it would still only be fairly valued vs the USD on a Purchasing Power Parity basis.

The US fiscal position is highly correlated to the level of the US dollar index. If history is a guide, an expanding budget deficit would likely be accompanied by a falling USD. In the chart below we plot the US budget deficit/surplus (blue area, left axis, inverted) against the USD spot index (red line, right axis, inverted). We can see that over long periods of time this relationship holds quite closely.


Tuesday, July 18, 2017

SPX vs CBOE Equity Put / Call Ratio │ Extreme Greed


On Friday, July 14th the CBOE Equity Put / Call Ratio closed at 0.53, signalling extreme greed. On Monday, July 17th the SPX performed a narrow range inside day (IDnr 4 and IDnr7), and closed forming a neutral doji candle. However, on July 17th the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed at 0.63, and the 3-Day Moving Average (blue line) is about to turn up (down on the inverted scale).

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Wheat vs George Bayer Rule #14 │ July 14 or 17 Low (Fri or Mon)


VENUS MOVEMENTS IN GEOCENTRIC LONGITUDE USING A UNIT OF 1°9’13” 
This rule was found by measuring from the high of March 31, 1937 in Wheat. It is rather complicated for practical use, since exact measurements must be made with degrees, minutes and second [...] We use the single unit 1°9’13” [1.153611 degrees], also five times this unit or 6°55’18” [6.92166 degrees] or [...] 25 times the original 1°9’18” unit which value is 34°36’30” [34.60833 degrees]. All the measurements are to be used for geocentric longitude only. How I arrived at this 1°9’13” value I do not recall [...] During the period a planet moves retrograde we have to DEDUCT our increment, i.e. the values we use. When the motion of the planet is forward we have to ADD them. Be sure not to fail on this else no results can be expected. 
[George Bayer (1940): Stock and Commodity Traders´ Hand-Book of Trend Determination, p. 23 f., Carmel, California]
Update: July 18, 2017 07:02 AM: Wheat +1.78%

Saturday, July 8, 2017

Equities Expensive and Commodities Cheap?

Incrementum AG (Jun 1, 2017) - In a historical context, the relative valuation of commodities to equities seems extremely low. In relation to the S&P500, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) is currently trading at the lowest level in 50 years. 


The chart outlines the valuation of the GSCI relative to the S&P500. The GSCI comprises 24 commodities from all commodity sectors and serves as a benchmark for investment in the commodity markets and as a measure of commodity performance over time. If the ratio is low (green circles), it means that commodities are cheap relative to shares. If the ratio is at a high level (red circles), like during the Gulf Crisis in 1990, the prices of raw materials are relatively expensive.

The current ratio is 0.87 while the median is at 4.1. A return to the median gives 371% potential, but in most cases a rally doesn't stop at the median. In absolute terms, the scene seems set for a new bull market for commodities. According to Ned Davis Research, commodities gained 217% on average over the period of a bull market. 


Sunday, July 2, 2017

SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days | July 2017

Upcoming Cosmic Cluster-Days:
Jul 07 (Fri), Jul 15 (Sat), Jul 26 (Wed), Jul 28 (Fri), Jul 29 (Sat), Jul 30 (Sun), Aug 06 (Sun).

Saturday, July 1, 2017

Presidential-, Seasonal-, Decennial- and Composite Cycle | Q3 + Q4 2017

SPX vs Mercury - Venus Speed Differential | July 2017

SPX vs Mercury and Venus Parallel of Declination | July 12 (Wed)

On July 12 (Wed) Mercury and Venus will be parallel of declination at 19 degrees north (circled in red).
This usually entails a change in trend (+/- 1 CD).
 A parallel aspect is formed between two planets with the same declination or distance north or south of the ecliptic. If the planets are both North or both South of the ecliptic, the parallel aspect is read as a conjunction. If they are the same declination but one is North and one is South, then the contra-parallel is read as a 180 degree opposition.

SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | July 2017

 Upcoming Turn-Days:
Jul 04 (Tue), Jul 12 (Wed), Jul 21 (Fri), Jul 25 (Tue), Jul 31 (Mon), Aug 04 (Fri).