Showing posts with label Presidential Cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Presidential Cycle. Show all posts

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Presidential Cycle + Seasonal Pattern + Decennial Cycle for March 2016

Seasonal Cycle Mar 01 - Mar 31 (1900-2015) = +0.82%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Mar 01 - Mar 31 = +1.96%
4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Mar 01 - Mar 31 = +1.95%
SoLunar Map: Feb 26 (Fri), Mar 01 (Tue), Mar 05 (Sat), Mar 08 (Tue), Mar 12 (Sat),
Mar 16 (Wed), Mar 19 (Sat), Mar 23 (Wed), Mar 27 (Sun), Mar 30 (Wed)
Seasonal Cycle Jan 01 - May 31 (1900-2015) = +2.82%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - May 31 = +3.49%
4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - May 31 = -0.97%
Seasonal Cycle (1900-2015) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.99%
4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.52%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.98%
4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.52%
6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.98%
1st Year of the Presidential Cycle (2017) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +5.48%
7th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2017) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +4.82%
2nd Year of the Presidential Cycle (2018) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +2.99%
8th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2018) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +13.13%
3rd Year of the Presidential Cycle (2019) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +10.12%
9th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2019) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +10.62%

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

2016 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA


Since 1834 the U.S.-stock market has been positive 10 (56%) out of 18 times in the 6th year of every decade, and the average annual gain of a 6th year was 3.74%. Since the 1970s the DJIA gained 16% to 26% during the 6th year of each decade. On average the DJIA's 6th year in the Decennial Cycle, the Annual or Seasonal Cycle and the Presidential Cycle are all positive. In the average Decennial Cycle the DJIA scores the Low of the 6th Year in late January, rises into mid July, drops into September, before surging for the rest of the year. The Presidential Cycle drops from an early January High to a late February Low, rises into early April, drops to late May, rises again into early September, drops to early October before rising into the year-end.

Credits: Seasonal Charts

Credits: www.realinvestmentadvice.com

Thursday, November 26, 2015

SPX vs 7th Years of Presidents Cycle - Seasonality After Thanksgiving

Jeff Hirsch (Nov 25, 2015) - Now that Thanksgiving is upon us and early December gains tend to fade mid-month,
consider closing out those short term longs into strength today, Friday and next week.
Credits: Chris Carolan

Saturday, August 1, 2015

DJIA vs Lunar North Node in Zodiac Signs | Louise McWhirter

The mathematically calculated Lunar Nodes are sensitive points in space where the Moon’s orbit around the Earth
intersects the ecliptic - the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. The Ascending Node is where the Moon crosses from
south of the ecliptic to north of the ecliptic. The Descending Node is where it crosses from north of the ecliptic
to south of the ecliptic. In Western astrology the Ascending and Descending Nodes are known as the "North Node"
and the "South Node". Only the North Node is usually marked in horoscopes, as the South Node is by definition at
the opposite point in the chart. In Vedic astrology, the North and South Nodes are called Rahu and Ketu respectively,
and both are marked in the chart. Nodes always move retrograde and are considered natural malefics. Astrologically
the Nodes are thought to powerfully influencing both the affairs of nations and of people. Eclipses occur only near
the Lunar Nodes: Solar eclipses occur when the passage of the Moon through a Node coincides with the New Moon.
Lunar Eclipses occur when passage coincides with the Full Moon. The plane of the lunar orbit precesses in space
and hence the Lunar Nodes precess around the ecliptic, completing a revolution (called a Draconic or Nodal Period,
the period of nutation) in 6798.383 days or 18.612 years. The Nodes need 1.55 years to pass through one zodiac sign.

In her book 'Astrology and Stock Market Forecasting' published almost 80 years ago, financial astrologer Louise McWhirter described a theory of the business cycle. She claimed the low point of the depression was reached in summer of 1933 (Lunar North Node in Aquarius) and predicted the next peak in economic activity would occur in November 1942 (NN in Leo). Her prediction for recovery in 1942 coincided with the massive economic stimulus spending set in motion by the build-up for World War II. Looking at 100 years of stock market prices she consistently found the North Node in the sign of Aquarius during periods of low economic activity. At the halfway point in the 18.6-year cycle, the North Node is moving into the sign of Leo, where economic high points have historically been recorded. After this, the long-term trend moves lower as the North Node slowly and systematically makes its way back to the sign of Aquarius, where the cycle begins anew (see also HERE). 

Enlarge
Using McWhirter’s method, one would have expected the lowest economic period between January 2008 and August 2009 (NN in Aquarius), and then gradually improving from below normal levels to normal levels between August 2009 and August 2012 (NN in Capricorn, Sagittarius and Scorpio). The period between September 2012 and February 2014 was projected to be an above normal period for economic performance (unfortunately the red line of the averaged composite in the above chart doesn't clearly reflect this pattern). 

Though a considerable market correction between now and Q1 2016 is likely (HERE & HERE), a larger ensuing double-dip recession wouldn’t fit into the McWhirter-pattern (HERE). Instead the general upward trend should continue into the major peak-out between May 2017 and November 2018 (NN in Leo - HERE), followed by collapsing and declining markets into the 2020s (HERE).

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for DJIA | Tom McClellan

Tom McClellan - Chart In Focus (December 11, 2014)

Tom McClellan recently presented a 10-year leading indication relationship between oil prices and the stock market, as shown in the above chart. The current oil price slide says that sometime around 2024 some type of “echo” in stock prices from this year’s oil price drop can be expected. 

Stock prices echoing oil price movements with a 10-year lag has “worked” for over 100 years and there is enough evidence to accept it, even if we cannot explain it. For now, the message of this leading indication is that the oil price rally from 1998 to 2008 has yet to see the full extent of its echo during the 2009-2018 period. While the current dip in oil prices is going to be bad for stock prices about 10 years from now, it is not really a problem for stock prices in real time. 

The following chart zooms into this correlation between the S&P500 and the Crude Oil Price shifted 10 years into the future and suggests the S&P500 would continue moving down next week, then up into end of December before forming a major low around January 6. Another rally into early July - with a correction from around March 20 to April 24 - should follow.

Sunday, November 9, 2014

2015 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA

HERE & HERE
Lance Roberts @ www.streettalklive.com
TheChartStore.com




























Since 1834 the U.S.-stock market has been positive 12 out of 18 times in the 4th year of every decade and the 5th year was by far the best year of the Decennial Pattern. The Dow Jones Industrial Average started in 1895 and since then 11 of the last 12 5th years were up and averaged a return of almost 22%. The exception from the pattern was 2005 when the DJIA lost 0.61%.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

U.S. Stocks in 5th strongest and 6th longest Bull Cycle since 1900




















The bull market since March 2009 is the 22nd bull cycle since 1900. End of December 2013 it was in its 57th month. This is about the length of the current sunspot cycle 24. The ongoing bull market is now also the 6th longest bull cycle and with a performance of 154% (closing December 31st) the 5th strongest since 1900. 


Saturday, January 19, 2013

Decennial Cycle and Presidential Cycle in 2013


Michael Riesner and Marc Müller: Technical Outlook 2013 - Since 1900 the US market has marked an important long-term bottom in the first 4 years of EACH decade, without exception (see table of Lance Roberts at left) ... The last major low in the S&P 500 we saw in March 2009, which obviously belongs to the last decade. So either we see in the current decade the first failure of this pattern in more than 100 years or we will see another bear market and subsequent bottom in the next 2 years, which would then fit to both, the presidential and the decennial cycle. In this context it is very interesting that if we combine both cycles and look into the past, we are getting again a consistent picture of having a high probability for seeing a new bear market in the next 24 months. Since 1941 we had 7 presidential election cycles where the post-election and mid-term year fell into the first 4 years of a decade. In 5 out of 7 cycles (72% probability) we saw significant bear markets and more importantly, they were among the most painful bear markets of the last century! 
Conclusion: Our preferred scenario for 2013 is that we see an important March top in equities, followed by a distributive summer top building phase before seeing significant weakness from a potential August top developing into Q4. ... From a potential top of around 1550 to 1570 we could see the market correcting to 1180/1100. From a secular perspective this potential new bear market could bring us a very important long-term low for equities in 2014.