Sunday, November 10, 2024

S&P 500, VIX, MACD, Seasonality, and LT Hurst Cycles Projection

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars). 
 Daily trend is up. Weekly close above monthly R2. Daily NR4. Daily MACD (9,13,9) remains supportive. 
Entering Week 2 of the 3 Week Cycle. Monthly True Open. Top of 20 Trading Day Cycle around November 15-18
Major news on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.

Volatility S&P 500 Index (daily bars).
Weekly close at multi-month support; NR7, 2BNR
. Reaching for S2, S3 likely.

Jeff Hirsch's November Seasonality during Election Years.
US stock indices may move sideways to up into mid-November.

ChartingCycles, November 6, 2024.
Hurst Cycles Composite Model suggesting the month's swing-high was reached on November 8.

The Illusion of Control: The Fed's Quiet Coup d'État | Gerry Nolan

As Mike Lee states, the Executive Branch was meant to be under the President’s executive branch and direction. And yet, the Fed remains the ultimate untouchable, a fortress of financial power immune to democratic oversight or any real accountability. Let’s face it: The Fed is not about serving the people; it’s the nerve center of a Ponzi scheme so vast that it makes Wall Street look like pocket change.

 » The Federal Reserve isn’t a public service, it’s the vault where the
sovereignty of the American people was locked away a century ago. «

For over a century, the Fed has held the American economy in a chokehold, dictating monetary policy in ways that serve the banking elites and global financiers, while keeping citizens in perpetual debt-enslavement. It’s not a “politically independent institution” as they like to spin it - it’s a profit machine, designed to siphon wealth upwards and keep the masses at bay with breadcrumbs of credit and endless inflation.

 » The Fed is a profit machine, designed to siphon wealth upwards and keep
 the masses at bay with breadcrumbs of credit and endless inflation. «

The Fed controls interest rates, injects trillions into the economy at will, and manipulates the currency supply, all without a single vote from the American people. True sovereignty would mean a government with control over its own currency, accountable to its citizens, not be held to private bankers. But ending the Fed? That would mean dismantling the very backbone of U.S. financial imperialism, a move that would bring about sovereign economic control, yet will never happen under the current system of oligarchic “democracy.”

The real question isn’t whether Trump (or any president) could rein in the Fed; it’s whether the American people will ever realize that the Federal Reserve isn’t a public service, it’s the vault where their own sovereignty was locked away a century ago.

The Fed's Ponzi machine may be untouchable, but the illusion of freedom is slipping. How long until the curtain falls?

Quoted from:

Friday, November 8, 2024

The Kosher Candidate | Wyatt Peterson

How strange, eh? Trump wins the election and all’s quiet on the Western front. No Antifa or BLM thugs tearing up major cities; no suspicious activity at the polls or meaningful cases of voter fraud; no histrionic media warning about the impending ‘rise of fascism.’ Nothing! It’s almost as if Trump was the deep state’s candidate all along, something I have contended since October 7, 2023.
 
 » Anyone who believes ‘The Donald’ will be calling the shots in his
upcoming administration has no idea how our political system works. «
 
My MAGA friends assure me the vote for Trump was simply ‘too big to rig’ and that his victory is cause for uninhibited celebration. Our broken election system that garnered so much attention just four years ago has miraculously been restored and conservative Americans can once again place their faith in the democratic process. Hallelujah!

  » There is nothing patriotic about allowing a bunch of rich Jews
to dictate the terms of our national discourse. «

The wealthy individuals who have cozied up to Trump over the past 12 months are single-issue voters, and that issue is Israel. [...] It’s probably safe to assume that the millions of dollars Trump receives from people like Helberg and Thiel motivates his rhetoric about deporting “anti-Israel protestors” and bombing Iran more so than any deeply held philosemitic convictions. Many of his supporters, however, fail to make this connection and, as a result, adopt similar attitudes and opinions to those their hero has been paid so handsomely to express. Indeed, the major benefit of a Trump presidency from the perspective of these people is his unprecedented popularity, which automatically ensures countless supporters for the Zionist cause. 
 
Had Kamala Harris been installed as America’s 47th president, I honestly believe a majority of Trump’s base would’ve quickly grown tired of watching material and financial aid go to Israel, thus creating a fissure in the Zionist edifice and potentially leading to an overdue reckoning with the Jewish Question. As it stands, Trump will likely live up to his billing as history’s most pro-Israel president and he’ll almost certainly be granted a free pass by his supporters who seem to view him in the same starry-eyed way as a child views his favorite athlete or movie star.


Another single-issue voter close to Trump these days is billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman. A longtime donor to Democratic candidates and organizations such as Michael Bloomberg, Chuck Schumer, the Democratic National Committee and Planned Parenthood, Ackman announced his support for Trump in July after complaining about Joe Biden’s “lack of support” for the Jewish state.


[...] Conservatives tend to believe the fight for the soul of our nation is being waged between ‘progressive leftists’ and ‘America First.’ In reality, ‘Wokeism’ is but a tool in the hands of powerful forces who wield it to destabilize Western Christian civilization. The second the ‘woke’ golem goes off the reservation and begins operating with a measure of autonomy, its creators shift their shape and pose as patriotic crusaders in the fight to reclaim our nation from the monster they have created. There is nothing patriotic about allowing a bunch of rich Jews to dictate the terms of our national discourse and to chase from public life anyone they deem a threat to their interests at that time.

 » Trump is surrounded by Zionist fanatics who believe 
they’re entitled to a return on their deposit. «

Which brings me back to Trump. Anyone who believes ‘The Donald’ will be calling the shots in his upcoming administration has no idea how our political system works. Howard Lutnick, the billionaire New York Jew heading the Trump transition team, has already stated he’s working closely with Jared Kushner on hiring personnel for the administration; and former ‘Never Trumper’ Ben Shapiro has indicated ultra-Zionists Mike Pompeo and David Friedman will be in charge of Trump’s “Israel policy.” Shapiro disclosed the information during an online debate with Jewish activists Sam Harris and Bari Weiss, telling them, “on his Israel policy, Mike Pompeo and David Friedman are the most likely people to be in the administration ... I know precisely the people talking to him — I’m not speculating about that.” Later in the segment, Shapiro rightly stated that “Trump is the most pro-Israel president in American history,” revealing where his, and so many of his co-religionists’, true interests lie.


Recently I was reading through some old political newsletters and magazines I’ve accumulated over the years. One item which caught my attention was an August 2012 edition of Michael Hoffman’s Revisionist History newsletter titled, ‘The Quadrennial Return of the Lesser of Two Evils Meme.’ In it, Hoffman wrote the following about former Republican presidential candidate Willard ‘Mitt’ Romney:

"Mr. Romney is an obvious opportunist who would say or do just about anything to get elected. The pro-life argument only holds water if the murder of unborn Iranian babies in their mother’s womb counts for nothing with the Religious Right. Romney is the preferred candidate of the bankers and super-rich, and of war-Zionism. Within a year or less of being elected President it is very likely that he will bomb, or help the Israelis to bomb (the media weasel word is “strike”) Iran back into the stone age, with the familiar, cynical, Talmudic doubletalk about “collateral damage” when the “surgical strikes” somehow drift beyond Iranian nuclear power facilities and into “command and control centers of the regime” (Iran’s civilian city centers.) This is the documented Israeli tactic against Lebanon and Palestine, and US military policy is becoming increasingly indistinguishable from Israeli barbarity."

What was true of Mitt Romney in 2012 is equally true of Donald Trump in 2024, only the latter once again has the US military at his disposal and is surrounded by Zionist fanatics who believe they’re entitled to a return on their deposit.

Thursday, November 7, 2024

US Stock Rally vs. Market Breadth | Jason Goepfert

The indices soared [on Wednesday, November 6] while the average stock did not. It was one of the worst-ever days for participation on a day the S&P 500 jumped more than 2.5%.

S&P 500 after a >2.5% gain with less than 70% NYSE up issues and up volume.

On the NYSE, fewer than 70% of issues rose, and less than 70% of volume flowed into those issues. This has only happened 3 unique times - the aftermath of the 1987 and 2020 crashes and around the 2000 peak.

 

 S&P 500 futures after gapping up more than 1% the day after the US presidential election.
 
On track for only the 3rd gap up of more than +1% the morning after an election since the inception of S&P 500 futures. The other two were pretty, pretty good.
 

The 24 Chinese Solar Terms in 2025 │ Winter Begins Today ( 立冬 - Lì Dōng )

 Winter begins on November 7, which is 225° from the Vernal Equinox (0° Aries). 
This is what W.D. Gann referred to as a Natural Trading Day. 225° represents 0.618 of the solar year.
 
A solar term ( 節氣 ) is one of twenty-four periods in the traditional Chinese lunisolar calendar, each corresponding to a specific astronomical event or natural phenomenon. Starting from the spring equinox, these points are spaced 15 degrees, or roughly 15 days, apart along the ecliptic and are used by lunisolar calendars to remain synchronized with the seasons.

 Changes in trend often occur every 30° as the Sun moves into the next sign of the zodiac.
30° roughly equals one month, 30 calendar days or 21 trading days.
 
W.D. Gann knew that the astronomical year begins on March 21st and that this was also a very important seasonal time for financial markets. He used geometrical divisions of the solar year (degrees of solar longitude as well as calendar days) to ascertain turning points. Changes in trend often occur every 30° as the Sun moves into the next sign of the zodiac.
 
Dates at 45°, 90°, 135°, 180°, 225°, 270°, and 315° solar degrees from the Vernal Equinox (0° Aries) are what Gann called Natural Trading Days, with 225° representing 0.618 of the solar year (November 7). Though 15°, 22.5° and 45° also may coincide with changes in trend, Gann stressed the importance of the cardinal points (90° apart). He also used multiples of 90° and 144°, i.e., 90°, 180°, 270°, etc., and 144°, 288°, 432°, 576°, 720°, etc. 
  
 
Combining the Chinese Solar Terms and Gann astro-methods for market timing with the following concepts may further increase the probability of accurately pinpointing market turns:
 
 
 

 

Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish │ Jeff Hirsch

With a clear winner decided, the history of market gains from Presidential Election Day to year-end is encouraging. As shown in the tables above and below, the market tends to rally from Election Day to year-end, with a few exceptions due to exogenous factors.

 DJIA up 72.2% of the time, with an average gain of 2.38%.
S&P 500 up 66.7% of the time, with an average gain of 2.03%.
NASDAQ up 76.9% of the time, with an average gain of 1.50%.
Russell 2000 up 61.5% of the time, with an average gain of 4.93%.

Profit-taking at the end of 1984 kept stocks flat after the rally from the July bear market bottom, driven by anticipation of Reagan’s landslide reelection victory. The infamous undecided election roiled stocks at the end of 2000 amid the dot-com bear market of 2000-2001. The Great Financial Crisis and the 2007-2009 generational bear market caused a further plunge in late 2008, fueled by shrinking economic data and uncertainty surrounding a change in party and the incoming, unknown Obama administration. The escalating European Debt Crisis kept the stock market on edge in late 2012.


Overall, from Election Day to year-end, the DJIA is up 72.2% of the time, with an average gain of 2.38%. The S&P 500 is up 66.7% of the time, with an average gain of 2.03%. The NASDAQ is up 76.9% of the time, with an average gain of 1.50%, and the Russell 2000 is up 61.5% of the time, with an average gain of 4.93%.

Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points │ Jeff Hirsch


The first 5-6 trading days are typically bullish, followed by weakness in the week before Thanksgiving. The DJIA and S&P 500 strength has shifted to mirror the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the most bullish days occurring at the beginning and end of the month.
 
 
 November Performance in “All Years” (1930-2015) and “Election Years” (1932-2012) 
 
November Market Performance (2001-2021) — Jeff Hirsch,  October 20, 2022.
 
 S&P 500 and Nasdaq average performance during the presidential election week.
 
 
S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for November of the Election Year 2024.
Alternative approach: 4-Year Presidential Cycle in Line with the Decennial Cycle.

S&P 500 and the 3-Month VIX Relative to the VIX | Stephen Suttmeier


The 3-month VIX relative to the VIX (VIX3M/VIX) is below 1.0 and currently oversold. This tactical sentiment indicator signals fear heading into the 2024 Presidential election. We have observed similar conditions with the VIX3M/VIX being oversold ahead of the 2020 and 2016 Presidential elections. This suggests taking a contrarian bullish view on U.S. equities and supports the likelihood of a year-end rally.

The spot VIX Index is currently above all of its futures contracts, in spite of a drop on November 5th. This is a condition reliably associated with price bottoms (and/or worrisome elections).

Monday, November 4, 2024

S&P 500 vs VIX Put/Call Ratio | Jason Goepfert

Volume in VIX puts was more than two times that of calls on Friday.
That's one of the highest turnovers in 15 years.
It has typically spiked at times of extreme anxiety.

Jason Goepfert, November 4, 2024.
 
 Preliminary CBOE Put/Call Volume Ratio on Nov. 4 at 2PM ET 
is officially "pretty far up there".
 

 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars) | November 4, 2024.

Sunday, November 3, 2024

The United States Exists for War | Scott Ritter

Anyone hoping that the United States will be a force for peace is hoping in vain. We are not a force for peace; we are not wired for that. The United States exists for war. This is what President Dwight D. Eisenhower warned us about in his farewell address in 1961, when he spoke of the rise of the military-industrial complex working in concert with Congress to undermine American democracy.

 The US proves itself globally to be the primary source of strife, war, repression, and genocide.
» Electing a new president will not change this dynamic. «

It succeeded. America's democracy today is literally a shadow of what it could and should be. It doesn’t matter that we can all go out and vote on November 5th. Just look at who we are voting for. If you believe that having Kamala Harris representing the Democratic Party and Donald Trump representing the Republican Party indicates a politically healthy America, you are mistaken. What it shows is that America is among the most unhealthy nations in the world regarding democracy and politics.

We are deeply diseased. We have an establishment that thrives on global confrontation. Our entire means of interfacing with the world—economically, diplomatically, and otherwise—is through violence. Look at how we propose to solve the Israeli-Gaza conflict: by providing billions of dollars in military assistance to Israel. We seem to have no other option. Even when we attempt to pressure Israel by stopping arms sales, it feels as though weapons are our sole contribution because it is all we know how to do. Consider Ukraine; that’s all we have.

 » Our entire means of interfacing with the world is through violence. «

In contrast, look at how China engages with the world through the Belt and Road Initiative, a $10 trillion infrastructure development program that has allowed China to win over the hearts, minds, and pocketbooks of nations while we seek to destroy everything. The primary American representative globally these days is the regional combat commander in the Middle East. If you're the ambassador of a major Middle Eastern country, your effectiveness hinges on the presence of the military representatives, because they are the ones calling the shots. The same is true in Europe and Asia; military influence is paramount.

The military is not meant to be a diplomatic agency, yet it has become the most important diplomatic agency of the United States. This reality tells us that our reason for existence is not peace; it is war. Electing a new president will not change this dynamic. Donald Trump may superficially speak the language of peace, but he is an instrument of war and power. He implies that he can project American economic power without backing it up with military force. Even when he talks about peace, it’s always underpinned by threats. For example, when he threatens Putin, claiming he’ll make those domes disappear, what does that really mean? It implies violence; that’s all we know how to do.

 » We have an establishment that thrives on global confrontation. «

This pattern persists across the political spectrum. The Democrats resort to economic violence, military violence, and political violence, just as the Republicans do. The CIA exists to undermine foreign governments, as we’ve just seen again in Georgia. The Georgian people, who held a fair and free election, find that the United States refuses to accept their democratic outcome because it was not the one we wanted. Consequently, we intervene, trying to instigate a Maidan-like revolution in Tbilisi, just as we did in Kiev.

 
» Now that Ukraine has failed, the US is preparing continental Europe for direct conflict with Russia. «
Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, November 3, 2024.

I wrote an article titled "The American Midas Touch." In ancient Greek mythology, King Midas is known for turning everything he touches into gold, but it also meant that everything he touched ultimately died. This is the American Midas Touch: we seek to turn everything to our benefit, but in doing so, we often bring about destruction. At the end of the day, we touch others and they die because we know only how to kill for our advantage. None of the candidates represent a force for peace, and America will never be a force for peace as we are currently configured.

 

What Is the US and Where Did It Come From? | Think About This Question

 
In the nearly two and a half centuries of its existence, this country has killed millions of innocent people around the world. And it has no intention of stopping. Nothing Personal - Just Business - that's their favorite slogan, with which they continue to kill people all over the world, divide other countries among themselves and start civil wars.

ooooOoooo
 
ooooOoooo
 
The whole world stands frozen in uneasy anticipation, waiting for the results of the presidential election in the distant land of US. There is no reason why we should have high expectations about it.

1. The outcome of the election will not change anything for Russia, as both candidates share the same bipartisan consensus that Russia must be defeated.
2. Kamala is dumb, inexperienced, and easy to control, as she will be terrified of everyone around her. All the real decision-making will be done by a coterie of top ministers and advisors plus (indirectly) the Obamas.
3. A low-energy Trump, spewing clichés like 'I'll offer them a deal' and 
'I have a very good relationship with...,' will be forced to comply with the system and its rules. He won't stop the war. Not in one day, not in three days, not in three months. And if he actually attempts to do it, he could end up becoming the new JFK.
4. The only thing that matters is how much cash the new POTUS can squeeze out of Congress to finance someone else's war, fought in a far-off land. Cash to feed the American military-industrial complex and to line the pockets of the Banderite scum in Ukraine.
5. That is why, if we want to please both candidates for the highest American office, the best thing to do on November 5 is keep pummeling the Nazi regime in Kiev! 


ooooOoooo
 
 
Trump's Derangement Syndrome.