Top Ten S&P 500 Seasonal Periods after a +5% January-May | Wayne Whaley

With four trading days remaining in the month of May, the first five S&P months (January-May) of the year are up 11.2%.  Over the last 50 years, there have been 22 years in which the S&P was up at least 5% for the first five months of the year. Below are the ten strongest seasonal periods in the last seven months of those 22 years, eight of which had a positive slant.

The first column is the performance in the first five months of the year in those 22 years of the last 50 which had a +5% gain.  The 2nd column is the performance from May31-June 8th which is the rated the 10th strongest seasonal period of those last seven months. Then Jun12-July14, etc.

 

In my opinion, the major take away from this scan is that not only are you promised a strong fourth Quarter culminating in a 20-2, Dec14-30 performance but you usually get an equally impressive summer rally from mid June through mid July.  The two soft spots occurred in July26-August10 and Sept23-30.

Wayne Whaley @ X - May 25, 2024

 

Putin wants Ukraine Ceasefire on Current Frontlines | Reuters

MOSCOW / LONDON, May 24, 2024 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognises the current battlefield lines, four Russian sources told Reuters, saying he is prepared to fight on if Kyiv and the West do not respond.

 PUTIN READY TO STOP WAR FOR NEGOTIATED CEASEFIRE RECOGNIZING CURRENT FRONTLINES - 

two presstitutes at Reuters are claiming. They are citing "four anonymous Russian sources", 

and are warning Putin is ready to fight as long as it takes if West refuses.

MOSCOW, May 24, 2024

Three of the sources, familiar with discussions in Putin's entourage, said the veteran Russian leader had expressed frustration to a small group of advisers about what he views as Western-backed attempts to stymie negotiations and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's decision to rule out talks. 

 

War is diplomacy by other means. 

And it is the winner on all battlefields dictating the terms of 'peace'.

» Russia is ready if the West wants to fight for Ukraine. «

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov

MOSCOW, May 13, 2024

 

"Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire – to freeze the war," said another of the four, a senior Russian source who has worked with Putin and has knowledge of top  level conversations in the Kremlin.
 

♫  He, like the others cited in this story, spoke on condition of anonymity given the matter's sensitivity. ♫ 

 

Under Hibatullah Akhundzada's leadership, the Islamic Republic 

was dissolved and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was re-established.

KABUL, August 15, 2021

 

Under General Abdourahamane Tchiani's leadership, the Republic of the Niger
resisted ECOWAS' invasion threats, kicked out all French and American
military, and called in Russian troops.

NIAMEY, May 3, 2024

 

Under Abdul-Malik Badruldeen al-Houthi's leadership, Ansar Allah overthrew
the previous regime in 2015, and took full control over the Republic of Yemen. 

SANA'A, May 24, 2024

ICT Weekly Seek & Destroy Manipulation Profile | Michael J. Huddleston

 The Weekly 'Seek & Destroy' Range Manipulation Profile a.k.a. the 'Retail Traders Graveyard'.

The Weekly 'Seek & Destroy' Marker Maker Range Manipulation Template with either a bullish or a bearish Friday is a neutral or low probability market profile. The manipulation is taking place where price is consolidating Monday through Thursday, running shallow stops under and above the intra-week highs and lows, then runs the intra-week high/low and expands higher/lower into Friday. 

 

 

How to anticipate it? When the market is awaiting major news announcements in the second half of the week - especially after one or more directional wide-range weeks (see also the daily 'London Swing to Seek & Destroy' Template).

Reference:
Michael J. Huddleston (2017) - ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 07 - Defining Weekly Range Profiles. (video)

Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Market Maker Buy Model and Sell Model (MMXM).

Daye (2024) - The Quarterly Theory. 

 Michael J. Huddleston (2015) - ICT Daily Range Profiles & Intraday Trading Templates.

 Darya Filipenka (April 3, 2024) - ICT Trading on NFP and FOMC Days.

Darya Filipenka (February 5, 2024) - Implementing Economic Calendar Events.

David Hickson (Februry 05, 2024) - News Events & Financial Markets. (video)

 Michael J. Huddleston (June 20, 2023) - ICT Consolidation Raid on News Release Template.
Stacey Burke (March 14, 2023) - Pump and Dump Patterns after Major News Release.

Thursday is the most bullish day before Memorial Day | Jeffrey A. Hirsch

 

Thursday historically the most bullish day before Memorial Day over last 21 years based upon average performance, 

range DJIA +0.24% to R2K +0.46%. Except for NASDAQ, frequency of gains is also best on Thursday. 

[...] Wednesday has been the softest of the three days with DJIA’s performance turning negative.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch - May 21, 2024

US Debt is now rising by $1 Trillion every 100 Days | Paul Craig Roberts

The US debt has never mattered, because the US dollar is the world reserve currency. That means US debt is the reserves of the world’s central banks. If US debt rises, so does the reserves of the world banking system. All central banks were delighted to accumulate more US Treasury debt as it meant the reserves of their banking system went up.

» The morons who comprise the Biden regime are scaring central banks away from the dollar. «

 

The Federal Reserve can always redeem US Treasury debt by creating money with which to buy it. The debt is always redeemable because it is denominated in dollars. The problem arrives when the dollar is deserted as world reserve currency. The morons who comprise the Biden regime are scaring central banks away from the dollar as their reserves because of sanctions against Russia, Iran, China, Venezuela, and others. The slow mental processes of central banks are beginning to understand that having your reserves in US Treasury dollar debt means they can be frozen, seized, denied to your use if you cross Washington.

Fun Fact : The current Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Hayden 'Jay' Powell is NOT Jewish.

Everything is fine. Don't fall for antisemitic trope, Anti-Zionism, and conspiracy thought crime.

The threat to Washington is, whereas the Fed can print dollars to redeem the debt, the Fed cannot print foreign currencies to redeem the US dollar. So, if central banks shift their reserves out of dollars into gold, as Russia and China are doing, or into other currencies, the supply of dollars in foreign exchange markets have fewer and fewer takers. Consequently the dollar loses its value relative to gold, silver, and rising currencies, and the dollar’s value falls in foreign exchange markets. As America’s manufacturing is offshored and as America relies on imports of food, US inflation rises. Historically, the Fed’s response to inflation has been unemployment.

 

♫ Nowhere to hide ♪ nowhere to go ♫ meet Saint Jerome ♪ the Wrecking Ball ♫

 

The Federal Reserve and the institutions used to suppress gold and silver prices use naked shorts to control the price by dumping shorts into the futures market. In other words, contracts unsupported by actual gold holdings can be used to increase the paper supply of gold in futures markets. As the futures market settles in cash, not in gold deliveries, a flood of paper contracts unsupported by actual physical gold can be used to suppress the price. In other words, the supply of paper gold can be printed just like the Fed can print paper money. [...] This price control process fails when the demand for gold exceeds the physical supply at the suppressed price. We have recently witnessed a new outbreak in the gold price. Is this a sign that the controlled price can no longer hold against the demand for physical gold, or is there some other explanation?

» America is likely living her last years. Perhaps this is why Putin and Xi don’t bother to dispose of us. «

As the fools ruling the US continue their destruction of the country, the dollar and living standards will die with the country. America is likely living her last years. Perhaps this is why Putin and Xi don’t bother to dispose of us.

 

Quoted from:
Paul Craig Roberts (May 16, 2024) - The West Has an Illiterate Financial Press. 

 

See also:

Oleg Brunov (May 18, 2024) - China Sells Off Record Amount of Dollar Assets as US Remains the 'World's Bully’.

Pepe Escobar (May 13, 2024) - De-Dollarization Bombshell: The Coming of BRICS+ Decentralized Monetary Ecosystem. 

L. David Linsky (October 24, 2023) - War And Regime Change Soon In The US.

TPR (November 13, 2023) - Avoiding Default By Destroying Others: The War-And-Pillage Business Model.

 

oooo0oooo

 

 Waiting for the Wrecking Ball to ♫ on Wednesday, May 22nd @ 14:00 EST to identify the ICT Weekly Range Profile.

 Darya Filipenka (April 3, 2024) - ICT Trading on NFP and FOMC Days.

Darya Filipenka (February 5, 2024) - Implementing Economic Calendar Events.

David Hickson (Februry 05, 2024) - News Events & Financial Markets. (video)

 Michael J. Huddleston (June 20, 2023) - ICT Consolidation Raid on News Release Template.
Stacey Burke (March 14, 2023) - Pump and Dump Patterns after Major News Release.

The 8 Most Common Chart Patterns & How to Trade Them | Aksel Kibar

I've simplified classical chart patterns to the most basic/common 8 patterns. I think most new patterns are derived from those basic ones. Our brains' pattern recognition is not that advanced to focus on so many derivatives. In fact better success can be achieved by narrowing down the below to select few.

 

 

There are 3 Types of Triangles: The symmetrical triangle, the ascending triangle and the descending triangle. Between those three I favor ascending and descending triangles for couple of reasons. One of them is, both ascending and descending triangles have horizontal boundaries. Breakouts through the horizontal boundaries are the chart pattern signal. The other reason is that, both ascending and descending triangles have directional bias due to their upward and downward sloping lower and upper boundaries. I find symmetrical triangles difficult to trade as price usually finds resistance at the minor highs following the breakout. Pause around minor resistance usually hampers the momentum and can result in more frequent failures. A symmetrical triangle has both boundaries converging towards an apex. It is a neutral chart pattern and doesn’t have a directional bias.

 

 » The Head and Shoulder Continuation (H&S Continuation) is one of my favorite chart pattern. «

 

There are 4 Types of Breakouts:

Type 1 Breakout = Breakout without any Re-Test/Pullback.
Type 2 Breakout = Breakout with a Re-Test/Pullback.
Type 3 Breakout = Breakout followed by hard Re-Test of Pattern Boundary.
Type 4 Breakout = Failed Breakout  - Price fails to continue in the breakout's direction and instead reverses. 

 

 

 

 

 

Breakout Type 1, Type 2, and Type 3 Summary.

 

 

 Head & Shoulder Top Failure acting as Bullish Continuation.

 

Cup & Handle as a Continuation Pattern in an Uptrend.

 

Rectangle as a Continuation Pattern in an Uptrend.

Symmetrical Triangle as a Continuation Pattern in an Uptrend.

 

Several Bullish Chart Patterns in an Uptrend.

Rectangle Bullish Reversal.

 

Rectangle Bullish Continuation.
 

The latest stats on pattern reliability: Rectangle continues to lead. With good risk management Type 1 & Type 2 breakouts offered edge with pattern signals.

 

 

Reference:

Aksel Kibar @ X

Aksel Kibar - YouTube Channel.

Aksel Kibar - Tech Charts Blog.
Richard Schabacker (1934) - Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits.
Robert D. Edwards & John Magee (1948) - Technical Analysis of Stock Trends.
Peter L. Brandt & Bruce Babcock Jr. (1990) - Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns.

Peter L. Brandt (2011) - Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader: Lessons from 21 Weeks of Real Trading.

Stacey Burke (2015-2024) - Best Chart Patterns & Trading Setups for End-of-Day, Short-Term-, and Day-Trading. (videos)

 

 

 From Peter Brandt's foreword to the 2021 Harriman House re-edition of 

Richard Schabacker's 'Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits'.

A New High in May - Makes the Fall Rally a Strong Play | Wayne Whaley

On Wednesday, May 15, 2024, the S&P closed at 5308.15 which was a new All Time High.  Given that 50% type Bear Markets can take years to erase, I often fancy '12 Month High' as to 'All Time High' scans as they capture the same market characteristics while providing a larger sample size.

Since 1950, there have been 27 prior years of those 74 in which a High for the rolling year was set in May. In those 27 cases, the following June-December performance was 23-4 for an avg 7.58%, seven month gain. The 10% moves during the final seven months of those 27 calendar years were 12-0 to the positive side.  

The fall rally I reference is Aug25-Dec8 with 26 wins after a May High vs on fractional loss.  The scan deemed June21-July01 as the weakest period with a 12-14 mark for a modest 0.26% avg loss.

 

Wayne Whaley - May 18, 2024

 

See also:
Robert Miner (April 26, 2024) - The S&P 500 and the Election Year Cycle.

Prosecute / Fauci | Elon Musk

Fun Fact #1 - Dr. Anthony Fauci is NOT Jewish.

 

 

 Fun Fact #2 - The Goyim do NOT know.

 

 

  Fun Fact #3 - The ADL does NOT complain.

Fun Fact #4 - Jeffrey Epstein WAS a beloved American financier, broker, and educator.

 

Fun Fact #5 - The list of names in Jeffrey Epstein's 'Little Black Book' of US Mossad assets includes

Anthony Fauci, Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg, Robert Kennedy Jr., Elon Musk, and Donald Trump. 

 

 

Fun Fact #6 - Zionist US mainstream media do NOT mention Ghislaine Maxwell and Jeffrey Epstein were Mossad agents, 

and suggest William Henry 'Bill' Gates III is NOT a deranged eugenicist but a benevolent philanthropist. 

 

 

 Fun Fact #7 - The Zionist entity awarded Dr. Fauci FOR 'Speaking Truth To Power'.

 

  

 Fun Fact #8 - Cluelessness prevails about WHO could have had imagined this.

 

Fun Fact #9 - This is » a flat-OUT lie. «

 

Fun Fact #10 - WHY Netanyahu thinks America is stupid.

Reference:

Sasha Latypova (February 28, 2024) - Pentagon Staged COVID-19 Plandemic Years in Advance.

Edward Dowd (February 13, 2024) - mRNA Vaccinated Dying of Cancer at ‘Explosive’ Rates.
M. Nathaniel Mead et al. (January 16, 2024) - COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines: Lessons Learned from the Global Vaccination Campaign.

Marwan Bishara (2023) - Why Netanyahu Thinks America Is Stupid.
J. Bart Classen (2022) - COVID-19 and Illegal US Bioweapons Activity, an Insider's Revelations.

Leland Nally (October 9, 2020) - I Called Everyone in Jeffrey Epstein’s Little Black Book.