The Year-End Rally and January Effect in US Stocks | Jack Gillen

Jack Gillen, a prominent American financial astrologer (1932-2022), especially known for his book The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange (first published in 1979, revised 2009), attributed the Year-End Rally—often called the "Santa Claus Rally"—primarily to astrological influences, particularly the Sun's annual cycle and its interactions with key points in the natal charts of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the United States. In Chapter VIII ("Year-End Rally") Gillen framed this as a predictable seasonal pattern driven by planetary transits, rather than purely economic factors, emphasizing that markets follow cosmic rhythms with mathematical precision. 

 

NYSE Natal Chart (New York, NY, May 17, 1792 8:52 am).

 

United States Natal Chart (Philadelphia, PA, July 4, 1776 12:30 pm). 

Core Astrological Mechanism: Gillen explained the rally as a direct result of the Sun's transit through Capricorn (around December 22–January 20), specifically when the Sun reaches 5–9 degrees Capricorn. This position forms a harmonious trine aspect (120-degree angle) to Venus at 5 degrees Taurus in the NYSE's natal chart (May 17, 1792). The trine creates bullish energy, boosting prices and volume as the Sun—a symbol of vital energy and trends—activates fixed, stable points in the market's "birth chart."

 

▪ This aligns with a grand trine involving other NYSE chart points: Mercury (23° Taurus), Sun (27° Taurus), and Mars (18° Virgo), plus Neptune (24° Virgo) and the Part of Fortune (25° Taurus) in the US chart.

▪ Capricorn, ruled by Saturn, governs government policies and market conditions (within a 4-degree orb), but the trine's positive flow overrides restrictions, leading to upward momentum from Christmas to New Year's.

▪ The Moon plays a supporting role for daily timing: New Moon to New Moon cycles signal short-term moves, while the Moon's transits (e.g., from Virgo to Pisces) enhance long positions during this period.

 

Broader context: The Sun's 365¼-day cycle through the zodiac creates annual highs (January to late July, Aquarius to Aries) and lows (late July to October, Leo to Libra). The year-end rally acts as a "reset," balancing the year's trend, with the US chart's Cancer cluster (opposed by Capricorn) adding tension that's resolved bullishly.

 

Historical Patterns and Reliability: Based on data from 1900–1970 (which Gillen noted holds pre-1900 as well), the DJIA closed higher on the last trading day of the year 86% of the time (only 11 minus closes). Gains averaged positive, with the largest in 1967 (+17.74 points) and the biggest loss in 1966 (-13.61 points). Exceptions occur ~14% of the time due to disruptive factors like:

▪ North Node squares to US Jupiter in Cancer (e.g., 1911: -0.43%; 1930: -0.62%; 1968: -8.57%).

▪ Mutable sign influences (Sagittarius/Pisces) from Uranus for erratic volatility.

 

 

Gillen tied this to longer cycles:

▪ Sun's 19-year eclipse cycle (6,585.321 days): Shifts trends via Moon-Sun eclipses.
▪ Jupiter (12 years/sign): Expansion highs (e.g., Jupiter in Leo in 1978 amplified rallies).
▪ Saturn (2½ years/sign): Restrictions in Capricorn cause depressions but are softened by year-end trines.
▪ Uranus (7 years/sign): Erratic breakouts in mutable signs.

 

Volume is crucial: It builds during rises (buy signal) and declines during falls (sell signal), mirroring the DJIA's tide.

 

Connection to the January Effect and Yearly Trend: A hallmark of Gillen's analysis is the January-year-end symmetry: "If the market shoots up in January, it will be up in December; if it’s low in January, then it's going to be low in December, at year's end." This ~80% accurate "balance" reflects the Sun's opposition (Cancer-Capricorn axis) resolving the year's energy. January's bullish tide (Aquarius ingress) sets the tone; low volume in weak months (February–March, July–August, October–November) tests but doesn't break the cycle.

 

Predictions and Trading Advice: Gillen predicted the rally persisted "year-after-year" unless heavily afflicted (e.g., Saturn in Capricorn for panics like 1929). For 1979 (his writing era), he forecasted lows in stocks like PPG Industries ($14–15) due to Saturn, but highs via Jupiter returns. Modern application: Monitor Sun aspects and volume—afflictions intensify bear phases, trines soften bulls.

▪ Buy strategy: Enter longs during Moon transits Virgo–Pisces (70–100% success for gains); target cycle lows (e.g., Gould, Inc. at $10 in Dec/Jan–Feb).

▪ Sell strategy: Exit at resistance highs (e.g., $26–$28); avoid weak months.

▪ General rule: "Always remember that the key factor in buying a stock is volume. As the volume builds, the prices rise. When volume declines prices fall." Align trades with corporate "birth signs" and ride the DJIA tide rather than fighting cycles.

Gillen's approach blends astrology with empirical stats, viewing the rally as cosmic inevitability rather than luck. For deeper dives, his book details tools like sensitive Sun/Moon degrees for precise timing. While unconventional, his methods have influenced financial astrology, with historical backtests showing high consistency.

Jack Gillen based his analysis primarily on data from 1900–1970. Below are the exact statistics he presented in The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange (Chapter VIII), followed by updated figures through 2024 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500.

  

Jack Gillen’s Original Statistics (1900–1970, DJIA).

 

Gillen emphasized that the 10–11 failures almost always coincided with heavy nodal afflictions (North Node square or opposition to US Jupiter or NYSE Venus) or strong Saturn restrictions.

Updated Statistics (1900–2024, 125 years) – DJIA.

S&P 500 Year-End Last Trading Day (1950–2024).

 

Classic “Santa Claus Rally” Definition: The last 5 trading days of December plus the first 2 trading days of January (7 trading days total).

 

 "Santa Claus Rally" Stats for the DJIA and S&P500 (1950-2024).

 

Notable Recent Exceptions (Failures of the Year-End Rally) 

 

▪ From 1900–1970: Gillen’s claimed 86% success rate for the final trading day is accurate for that specific sample.
▪ From 1900–2024: The success rate has declined to approximately 75% as markets have become more global, algorithmic, and influenced by macroeconomic events.

▪ The broader 7-day Santa Claus Rally (last 5 of Dec + first 2 of Jan) remains one of the most consistent seasonal patterns, still positive more than 75% of the time since 1950, with an average gain of around 1.3–1.4%.

 

Gillen’s core astrological thesis—that the Sun’s trine to NYSE Venus in early Capricorn drives the rally—continues to align with the majority of positive outcomes, although the edge has moderated in recent decades compared with his original 20th-century sample.

 

So what about the turn of the year 2025-2026? The usual year-end rally should still show up, with the Sun making its normal supportive link to the NYSE chart. But Saturn’s square to natal Venus (December 8), North Node pressure, and Uranus conjunct the NYSE Sun (December 30) introduce stress and the risk of sudden drops. The Moon’s difficult angles on December 24–25 and January 1 can briefly stall momentum, making the “Santa Rally” weaker and choppier than usual — upward overall but marked by sharp dips and low-volume days. Jupiter’s trine supports a rebound around January 3–10, but December 23–January 2 still favors light shorts. Overall: a cautious, shortened rally, not a full failure.
  

Reference:
Jack Gillen (2002) - Astro-Stats for the NYSE.

 

» Mid-December, the market starts to take off, and that's where we get our Santa Claus rally, which I must
remind everyone is really an indicator and not some tradeable rally. « — Jeff Hirsch, December 1, 2025.

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 25, 2025) - December Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Markets.

December Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Markets | Jeff Hirsch

December trading is traditionally shaped by holiday sentiment, with a general buying bias, though early-month markets can be choppy due to tax-loss selling and year-end adjustments. Historically, the first trading day of December has been bearish for the DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 over the past 21 years, with the Russell 2000 seeing even sharper declines.

Choppy First Half, Then Year-End Rally.

 

The first half of December is typically choppy, with early gains often fading into mid-month. Then holiday tailwinds usually begin to dominate, lifting the major indexes. A brief consolidation in the Santa Claus rally around December 25 is common, even as the market continues to push toward higher prices into year-end.

 

Reference: 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 25, 2025) - Typical December — Choppy First Half Then Yearend Rally.

 

S&P 500 Average Daily Performance and Hit Rate (%) (1928-2024). 

2025 S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Pattern since 1949.

  

 2026 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern since 1949.

 

Nicholas D. Savino: S&P 500 Forecast for December 2025.

 

See also:
Jack Gillen (2009) - Year-End Rally, January Effect, and Trend for the Year Ahead.

Year-End Rally, January Effect, and Trend for the Year Ahead | Jack Gillen

The Sun's position in relation to the stock market can show trends that are more or less active for each year, as the Sun degrees are generally fixed — they fall on about the same date every year. This is why some periods of the year reflect more of a pattern. This means that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will have similar to the same patterns at different sensitive points throughout each year. 

 

 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Natal Chart.

 

As an example, Iet’s take the natal chart of the NYSE and the U.S. chart. In the NYSE chart we find Venus, a prominent planet, along with Jupiter, relating to moves of success. The Sun is trine Venus at 5 degrees Taurus with the Sun at 5 degrees Virgo or 5 degrees Capricorn. This would relate to a sensitive point from the transit of the Sun to the NYSE chart. 

 

But in the US chart we have Jupiter at 5 degrees Cancer (the opposition of Cancer is Capricorn) so the transit at 5 degrees Capricorn would affect the market during that orb which would last from 5 degrees through 9 degrees, a 4-degree orb. This orb is in effect around Christmas and has become known as the year-end rally. The percentages are thus strongly in the favor as far as the Dow Jones coming up on the plus side from Christmas Day to New Year's Day. This trend is more or less dominant year after year.

 

 United States of America Natal Chart.

[...] Regarding the trend for the year, January can give a good indication because of the later degree sensitive points (Venus in Taurus, and Mars and Neptune in Virgo). This means that January can indicate what the eleven months ahead are going to be, bearish or bullish. Research reveals the success rate to be about 80 percent. 

 

This does not work when there are crash periods, certain sensitive zones activated in panics and crashes. This will bring some turmoil, as will Saturn going through Capricorn, which also indicates delays. This is very helpful in determining what an individual stock will do, but there are three factors you need to learn in order to determine which stock to start with for the year. In most cases it’s better to buy a stock at the beginning of the year and ride with it because you can get a pretty good indication of the January influence.

Why is the January influence so important? Astrologically speaking, there is the trine aspect related to the year-end rally period. But it’s more than that. We have Venus at 5 degrees Taurus, Mercury at 23 degrees Taurus and the Sun at 27 degrees Taurus, and Mars at 18 degrees Virgo. These points are trine Capricorn. So January is important because there is a grand trine, a configuration that occurs when there arc three planets, each 120 degrees apart. 

 

As the Sun leaves the 5 degree Capricorn point that relates to the short rally it moves on to a trine to the NYSE Mars at 18 degrees, the NYSE Mercury at 23 degrees and NYSE Sun at 27 degrees. So this is why January is important in anything related to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The trine also occurs in the U.S. chart with Neptune at 24 degrees Virgo and the Part of Fortune at 25 degrees Taurus. But the opposition to planets in Cancer show a turning point: and Capricorn rules government. These influences can be seen from about January 9 through January 18, as the Sun transits the pertinent degrees. If the market shoots up in January, it will be up in December; if it’s low in January, then it's going to be low in December, at year's end.

Reference:
Jack Gillen (2009) - The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange (2nd. Ed).

 

See also:

Jack Gillen (2002) - The Sun-Stats.

Jack Gillen (2002) - The Moon-Stats.

Jack Gillen (2002) - The Mercury-Stats.

Jack Gillen (1979) - The Sun and the Moon. 

Jack Gillen (1979) - Sensitive Degrees of the Moon.

Jack Gillen (1979) - Sensitive Degrees of the Sun.