An updating widget in the blog's right-hand column now plots the daily S&P 500 (ES) against its detrended seasonal composite, with a 45-day forward preview. Moving the vertical dashed slider across the chart shows the exact dates.
The detrended seasonal composite equally weights three seasonal averages, calculated from daily closing prices for completed years only (1928–2025): Annual Seasonal Cycle of all years (98), Midterm Election Year Cycles (24), and the years of the Decennial Cycle ending in 6 (9). Each historical year is normalized to its own preceding year-end close, then detrended by subtracting a straight-line progression to that year's closing level. This preserves the shape of each year's price trajectory while removing its net gain or loss. Consequently, the direction of movement matters more than the absolute price level across all seasonal composites.
The detrended seasonal composite equally weights three seasonal averages, calculated from daily closing prices for completed years only (1928–2025): Annual Seasonal Cycle of all years (98), Midterm Election Year Cycles (24), and the years of the Decennial Cycle ending in 6 (9). Each historical year is normalized to its own preceding year-end close, then detrended by subtracting a straight-line progression to that year's closing level. This preserves the shape of each year's price trajectory while removing its net gain or loss. Consequently, the direction of movement matters more than the absolute price level across all seasonal composites.
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