Saturday, May 30, 2015

SPX vs Planet’s Declinations out of Bounds

Declinations of Mercury, Venus and Mars exceeding the Sun's maximum declination (= ± 23.27 degrees) frequently correlate with market turns.
Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Cosmic Cluster Days for June - July 2015

Based on the assumption that heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets are somehow related to financial market movements,
these Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) were derived from a weighted composite index. Upcoming CCDs are:

May 27 (Wed), May 29 (Fri), Jun 02 (Tue), Jun 05 (Fri), Jun 11 (Thu), Jun 19 (Fri),
Jun 21 (Sun), Jun 22 (Mon), Jun 23 (Tue), Jun 26 (Fri), Jul 05 (Sun), Jul 06 (Mon),
Jul 22 (Wed), Aug 11 (Tue)
Previous CCDs are HERE

SoLunar Map for June - July 2015

More often than not a Low in this SoLunar Map is a High in the Stock Market and vice versa. Inversions occur. Upcoming turn-days:
May 29 (Fri), Jun 02 (Tue), Jun 05 (Fri), Jun 09 (Tue), Jun 13 (Sat), Jun 16 (Tue), Jun 20 (Sat), Jun 24 (Wed), Jun 27 (Sat), Jul 01 (Wed),
Jul 05 (Sun), Jul 09 (Thu), Jul 12 (Sun), Jul 16 (Thu), Jul 20 (Mon), Jul 24 (Fri), Jul 27 (Mon), Jul 31 (Fri), Aug 03 (Mon).
Previous SoLunar Maps are HERE

Friday, May 22, 2015

“War is just a Racket” - The Memorial Day Hoax

Patriotic kitsch - the aesthetics of American exceptionalism - HERE
Paul Craig Roberts (May 21, 2015) - Memorial Day commemorates soldiers killed in war. We are told that the war dead died for us and our freedom. 

[...] Most American soldiers died fighting foes who posed no threat to the United States. Our soldiers died for secret agendas of which they knew nothing. Capitalists hid their self-interests behind the flag, and our boys died for the One Percent’s bottom line.

[...] We need a memorial day to commemorate the victims of neoliberal globalization. All of us are its victims, and in the end the capitalists also.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Update - SPX 2015 vs 1955 (Similarites = 87% - 89%)

For previous similarities in the 60 Year Cycle see HERE

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution. For the methodology see HERE and HERE

Sunday, May 17, 2015

SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days

A Major Signal is triggered when the composite line breaks above the Average Cosmic Noise Channel; a Minor Signal when it breaks
to the downside. Both have equal forecasting capacities, but generate different sequences.

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Is the Crude Oil Rally Doomed?

Frank Holmes - U.S. Global Investors (May 8, 2015) - This week, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices reached a 2015 high, rising above $60 before cooling to just below that. This marks the eighth straight week of gains. Investment banking advisory firm Evercore makes the case that the recent oil recovery is closely following the average trajectory of six previous cycles between 1986 and 2009. Although no one can predict the future with full certainty, this is indeed constructive for prices as well as the industry.

Because oil remains in oversupply, the recent rally owes a lot to currency moves. The U.S. dollar, which has weighed heavily on commodities for around nine months, declined to its lowest point since mid-January. We might be seeing a dollar reset, which should finally give oil—not to mention gold, copper and other important commodities—much-needed breathing room.

The oil rig count continued to drop in April and is now at a five-year low. According to Baker Hughes, 976 rigs were still operating at the end of the month, down 11 percent from 1,100 in March and 47 percent from 1,835 in April 2014. Eleven closed this week alone. This spectacular plunge has had the obvious effect of curbing output and helping oil begin its recovery from a low of $44 per barrel in January. Production appears to have peaked in mid-March at 9.42 million barrels per day and is now showing signs of rolling over. 

A price reversal historically has occurred between six and nine months following a drop in the rig count. The number of rigs operating peaked in October and oil started to bottom in January.

Baker Hughes Oil rig count plunges to the lowest level since October 2010
The Saudis sent the market into a freefall in November when they decided to defend their market share
instead of propping up prices, and they show no sign of changing course.
The U.S. has almost 500 million barrels of crude oil in storage. That's by far the most oil in storage since record-keeping began in 1982.
Supplies have grown because of surging domestic production and restrictions on most crude exports.

"Brent Crude Oil price has most likely bottomed out!"
thinks Tiho of The Short Side Of Long

A sideways consolidation into late June is now likely.

Inflation-Adjusted Dow Up 130% From 2009 Low

Chart of the Day (May 13, 2015) - As the Dow trades approximately 1% below all-time record highs, this chart provides some perspective by illustrating the inflation-adjusted Dow since 1900. There are several points of interest. Take for example an unlucky buy-and-hold investor that invested in the Dow right at the dot-com peak of December 1999. A decade and a half after the dot-com peak of December 1999, the Dow is up a mere 12%. On the other hand, the inflation-adjusted Dow is now up a significant 130% from its financial crisis lows in 2009.

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

NRT with Stable and High Dividend Yields

North European Oil Royalty Trust (NRT) is a grantor trust which, on behalf of the owners of beneficial interest in the Trust, holds royalty rights covering gas and oil production in certain concessions or leases in the Federal Republic of Germany. The rights are held under contracts with local German exploration and development subsidiaries of ExxonMobil Corp. (ExxonMobil) and the Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies (full profile HERE). A royalty trust is a type of corporation, mostly in the United States or Canada, usually involved in oil and gas production or mining. However, unlike most corporations, its profits are not taxed at the corporate level provided a certain high percentage (e.g. 90%) of profits are distributed to shareholders as dividends. The dividends are then taxed as personal income.

NRT announced a quarterly distribution of $0.33 per unit for the second quarter of fiscal 2015, payable on May 27, 2015 to holders of record on May 15, 2015. This dividend works out to approximately 2.35%, so look for NRT to trade 2.35% lower when NRT shares open for trading on 5/13/15. $0.33 per unit is -5.7% decrease from prior dividend of $0.35, however it is a forward annual yield of about 9.50%. The above is the dividend history chart, showing historical dividends and can help in judging whether the most recent dividend from NRT is a reasonable expectation and likely to continue.

Seasonal Profile of Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures - Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of March 9 and a sell date of June 1, investors have benefited from a total return of 77.54% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods.

Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of October 10 and a sell date of January 2, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 62.42% with positive results in 9 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was -19.31%.

Friday, May 8, 2015

S&P500 vs Maximum Elongation of Mercury

See also HERE

Tom McClellan: Shifted Eurodollar COT points to SPX Major High in August

Tom McClellan (May 07, 2015): I do not know why it works to have the EuroDollars COT data shifted forward by a year to see what the SP500 will do.  But after seeing that it has worked for several years, at some point we stop wondering about the “why” question, and start to accept that there really is something working here.

I should emphasize that the relationship broke down during the Fed’s QE3, the $85 billion per month program of expanding the Fed’s balance sheet which started in September 2012 and then tapered down to nothing by October 2014.  During 2013 the once-nice leading indication seemed to be inverted for a while, and then the two plots got back into sync again starting in late 2013.  That was a frustrating time since I had come to trust its message so much when it was working well in 2011 and 2012. That just proves the point that no indicator is infallible, and one must continue to pay close attention to what is going on, just to make sure that everything is working as it is supposed to.

With the relationship back in sync now, it is appropriate to look ahead to a top due this summer, and some ugliness for stock prices this fall.  Ideally the top is due in early August, but there can be slight differences in the texture of the ED COT pattern and the actual behavior of the SP500. More HERE & HERE