Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500 and Bitcoin; Focus on Gold | David Hickson

S&P 500: In previous updates we noted that the 20-week cycle trough likely formed on September 2, consistent with similar lows across global equity markets within a few days of that date. We discussed the probability that a minor low on September 25 represented the 20-day cycle trough. 

S&P 500 (daily bars) from late August to December 2025: 

Rebounding from 40-day trough, likely forming a 40- or 80-day peak —possibly at a marginal new high—before turning lower toward 80-day trough in November (Oct 10 + 37.2 CD = Nov 16 (Sun) ±). Market now in bearish phase into early Jan 2026.

The expected 40-day cycle trough appears to have occurred on October 10, driven by a sharp, news-related decline. This does not signal a larger-degree trough, but reflects the timing of external events with the 40-day low. Price has since bounced above the 20-day FLD, suggesting a short-term upside, possibly a marginal new high. Looking ahead, we anticipate an 80-day cycle trough in November, while the broader trend remains bearish into a major longer-term cycle low in early 2026.

Bitcoin formed a 20-week cycle trough on September 1, but its subsequent structure has been bearish. The October 17 low — possibly a 40-day trough — occurred below the 20-day FLD, signaling weakness, and any near-term bounce is likely temporary.

 

Bitcoin (daily bars) from late August to December 2025:

 18-month cycle points toward major trough in early 2026.

Bitcoin (monthly bars from 2017 to 2025) entering bear market expected to take price down to $25k.

 

The larger 18-month cycle points to a major trough in early 2026, keeping Bitcoin structurally soft into the broader decline.

 
Gold has been moving sharply higher, and is now approaching the peak of this move. In the monthly chart below, the upper panel displays cycles synchronized at peaks. Gold and other commodities often synchronize at peaks, and when markets accelerate sharply—as gold has—troughs are hard to identify, making peak-based analysis the most practical approach.

 

Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025: 

Now approaching the peak of this move.

Looking back to 1998, the analysis identifies 9-year cycle peaks around 2002, 2011, and 2020. The 2002 peak is somewhat uncertain due to gold’s persistent uptrend, while the 2011 and 2020 peaks are well-defined. Markets with synchronized peaks typically form W-shaped structures rather than M-shapes, consistent with gold’s 2011–2020 behavior. The 54-month cycle peak in 2016 also aligns neatly.

 

Gold (monthly bars) from 2020 to 2025: 

9-year, 54-month, and 18-month cycle peaks.

Since the 2020 9-year peak, 18-month cycle peaks have occurred in early 2022 and late 2023. Accelerating momentum has made these shorter-term peaks harder to pinpoint, creating some uncertainty around the exact timing of the late-2023 peak. Accordingly, the projected next 18-month cycle peak (indicated by a “circle and whiskers”) should be interpreted with caution. The same applies to the 54-month cycle peak, whose projection relies on historical averages and may have stretched over time.

The weekly chart below shows a “nest of highs,” where the 54-month, 18-month, 40-week, and 20-week cycles overlap. This cluster has shifted slightly later than projected, reflecting an expansion of the longer cycles rather than a flaw in the analysis.

Gold (weekly bars) from October 2024 to October 2025.

Potential 54-month peak by mid-October 2025: Gold remains in a strong uptrend, approaching

a major multi-year peak as the 20-week, 54-month, and possibly 9-year cycles converge.

 

Hurst noted that gold’s cycles generally run longer than stock market cycles, and the current data supports this. If cycles continue to extend, the next 20-week cycle peak should occur roughly 175 days after April, landing in mid-October 2025, suggesting a major 54-month peak may be forming now.

Gold (daily bars) from September to October 20, 2025.

Peak confirmed once price breaks key VTLs and FLDs.

 

Price targets are derived from FLD interactions, but all upward FLD targets have already been reached. We can, however, use the 9-year FLD for context: in 2015, price tracked this line before breaking above it, an interaction resembling a BC-category event in Hurst’s framework. This suggests the 2015 low may have been a very high-magnitude trough, potentially corresponding to a 36- or 54-year cycle low.

Gold (monthly bars) from 1998 to 2025.

All upward FLD targets have already been reached. On a log scale, the $250→$2,000 (~5×) move

from 2001 to 2011 projects a proportional long-term target from ~$1,000 in 2016 to around $5,000. 

 

Projecting forward on a logarithmic scale, the initial major move from roughly $250 in 2001 to $2,000 in 2011 represented a 5× gain. Applying the same proportional advance from around $1,000 points in December 2015 (36-year or 54-year low) to a long-term target near $5,000.

Reference:
David Hickson (October 20, 2025) - How Far Will Gold Go? - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

 

Gold remains in a long-term mean reversion channel. Currently near the upper resistance (~$4,300/oz), gold appears overextended and may revert toward the mean ($2,500–$3,500/oz) before resuming its secular bull trend. The channel’s higher highs and lows reinforce the broader projection toward ~$10,000/oz as inflation, currency debasement, and safe-haven demand sustain the long-term uptrend.

Subu Trade notes gold’s rare 9-week winning streak ending October 17, 2025 — with no prior 10-week runs since records began in 1970. On average, 9-week winning streaks yield a 0% positive outcome beyond the next day and precede average declines of 13% within two months. 

 Oct 21, 08:25 EDT

 » We are there. «

See also:

Martin Armstrong (October 21, 2025) - On Gold, EU Capital Controls, CBDCs, Cryptos, and Stocks.

David Hickson (October 6, 2025) - Hurst Cycles: Bigger Picture for SPX, NDX, ASX, and BTC.

David Hickson (August 25, 2025) - 20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin.

TPR (October 10, 2025) - Hurst 40-Week Cycle High in US Stock Indices | High of 2025. 

Branimir Vojcic (October 4, 2025) - Gold and Silver: Medium- and Long-Term Cycles. 

Larry Williams (September 25, 2025) - US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025. 

Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Valid Trendlines (VTLs).
Christopher Grafton (2022) - J.M. Hurst's Future Lines of Demarcation (FLDs).

Long-Term Commodity Cycles: Unraveling the Big Picture | Ahmed Farghaly

Cycle analysis, based on J.M. Hurst's framework, streamlines financial market navigation. Synchronized cycles—from long-term Methuselah, Enoch, Hegemony, and Kondratieff waves to short-term fluctuations—reveal historical patterns shaping current and future commodity market trends.

 

Methuselah Wave = 972-Year Cycle = three 324-Year Enoch Waves

Enoch Wave = two 162-Year Hegemony Waves 

Hegemony Wave = three 54-Year Kondratieff Waves

Kondratieff Wave = three 18-Year Kuznets Waves

Kuznets Wave = two 9-Year Juglar Waves 

Juglar Wave = two 54-Month Kitchin Cycles 

Kitchin Cycle = three 18-Month Cycles = six 40-Week Cycles

 

Long-Term Cycle Foundations

In July 1949, the 972-year Methuselah Wave, the 324-year Enoch Wave (starting 1673), the 162-year Hegemony Wave, the 54-year Kondratieff Wave, and all shorter cycles converged at their lows (see list above). The current Enoch Wave is projected to trough again around 2263, the Hegemony Wave around 2107, and the Kondratieff Wave, which last bottomed in March 2003, around 2055. These synchronized cycles frame long-term commodity and market trends, with the Enoch and Kondratieff waves signaling sustained commodity appreciation through 2100 and 2032, respectively, while the Hegemony Wave suggests a future correction.

Commodity Price Index (yearly bars) from 1250 to 2025:

 324-Year Enoch Waves, 162-Year Hegemony Waves, 54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves.

Kuznets Cycle and Historical Parallels

The current Kuznets cycle, an 18-year wave, began with a trough between March and June 2020, mirroring the 1720 cycle that drove a 61-year commodity rise peaking in 1781. Now 5.33 years into this phase, the cycle aligns with late 2008, following the 2003 post-SARS trough. Since 2020, sharp advances in equities and commodities, alongside rising inflation, reflect historical post-trough patterns. Extended cycles indicate the current commodity uptrend may peak near 2100, with sustained inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions persisting, punctuated by seasonal corrections within the Hegemony and Kondratieff waves.

 

Commodity Price Index (quarterly bars) from 1750 to 2025: 

 972-Year Methuselah Wave, 162-Year Hegemony Waves, 54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves.

Kondratieff Seasons and Projections

The last Kondratieff Summer peak occurred in 1980, seven years after the 1973 energy price shock, with the current summer peak projected around 2032, coinciding with the Kuznets peak in the second cycle of the 9-year Juglar wave. A 5–6-year correction is anticipated into around 2037, followed by a commodity recovery marking the Kondratieff Fall Season, characterized by disinflation and equity bubbles. Winter deflation is expected to follow, driving declines in commodities and equities.

 

Commodity Price Index (monthly bars) from 1900 to 2025: 

54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves.

 

Short-Term Cycle Dynamics

Within the Kuznets cycle, commodities and equities align with nested 9-year Juglar and 54-month Kitchin cycles. The current Kitchin cycle post-2024 is expected to drive a 26-month commodity rally, peaking around 2028 in its third 18-month subcycle, mirroring 2008–2011 patterns. Six 18-month subcycles and twelve 40-week cycles provide granular short-term projections. The commodity index is projected to rise through Q1 2026 and into 2028 before the first Juglar-wave correction.

Commodity Price Index (weekly bars) from 1995 to 2025:

 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves, 54-Month Kitchin Cycles, 18-Month Cycles, 40-Week Cycles.

 

S&P 500 (quarterly bars) from 1800 to 2025: 
162-Year Hegemony Waves, 54-Year Kondratieff Waves, 18-Year Kuznets Waves, 9-Year Juglar Waves.

 

» The principle of confirmation [20-week VTL] on display. «

 Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100 (daily bars) from July 2024 to October 2025. 

18-Month Cycles, 40-Week Cycles, 20-Week Cycles, 80-Day Cycles, 40-Day Cycles, 20-Day Cycles.

 

» Assuming the S&P 500 is in the first bullish half of the third and last 18-month cycle within the current 54-month cycle (which allegedly began in October 2022), and there is no uplifting and dominant influence of the 9-year, 18-year, or 54-year cycles, the upcoming 40-week cycle peak, anticipated around late September to early October, would be a long-term market top. «  

 

Implications and Geopolitical Context

All cycles except the Hegemony Wave signal continued commodity price rises, with the Kuznets cycle supporting a 26-month rally, the Kondratieff wave projecting growth through 2032, and the Enoch wave indicating strength toward 2100. Current trends diverge from historical analogues, suggesting higher peaks. Inflation is expected to persist through 2032, with a commodity correction into 2037. The final Kuznets swing within the Hegemony Wave may trigger significant disruption, potentially signaling the decline of an old world order and the rise of a new one. Rising commodity prices continue to reflect heightened geopolitical tensions.

 

Reference:
Ahmed Farghaly (October 17, 2025) - Long-Term Commodity Cycles: Unraveling the Big Picture.

 

 WWII's effect on commodity prices counteracted the expected post-1919 bear market, 

resulting in a higher-than-expected 1949 low which J.M. Hurst termed a "straddled trough."

» Inflation will persist until century's end due to a long-term cycle. «

 

See also: 

Ahmed Farghaly (October 6, 2025) - High Inflation: We are in Kondratieff's "Summer of Summer". 

Ahmed Farghaly (2016) - The 162-Year Cycle in Stocks and Commodities Since 1509.

Ron William (2022) - Is the Big Cycle Turning? 

Nikolai Kondratieff (1926) - Gold Production Mirrors the Long Wave, It Doesn’t Drive It.

Gold Production Mirrors the Long Wave, It Doesn’t Drive It | Nikolai Kondratieff

As regards the opening-up of new countries for the world economy, it seems to be quite obvious that this cannot be considered an outside factor which will satisfactorily explain the origin of long waves. The United States have been known for a relatively very long time; for some reason or other they begin to be entangled in the world economy on a major scale only from the middle of the nineteenth century. Likewise, the Argentine and Canada, Australia and New Zealand, were discovered long before the end of the nineteenth century, although they begin to be entwined in the world economy to a significant extent only with the coming of the 1890’s. 

 

» We know that commodity prices reach their lowest level toward the end of a long wave. This means

that at this time gold has its highest purchasing power, and gold production becomes most favorable. «
Second Transvaal Gold Rush: Miners of the Republic Gold Mining Company,

De Kaap Valley, Eastern Transvaal gold fields, South Africa, 1888.

 

It is perfectly clear historically that, in the capitalistic economic system, new regions are opened for commerce during those periods in which the desire of old countries for new markets and new sources of raw materials becomes more urgent than theretofore. It is equally apparent that the limits of this expansion of the world economy are determined by the degree of this urgency. If this be true, then the opening of new countries does not provoke the upswing of a long wave. On the contrary, a new upswing makes the exploitation of new countries, new markets, and new sources of raw materials necessary and possible, in that it accelerates the pace of capitalistic economic development.

There remains the question whether the discovery of new gold mines, the increase in gold production, and a consequent increase in the gold stock can be regarded as a casual, outside factor causing the long waves. An increase in gold production leads ultimately to a rise in prices and to a quickening in the tempo of economic life. But this does not mean that the changes in gold production are of a casual, outside character and that the waves in prices and in economic life are likewise caused by chance. We consider this to be not only unproved but positively wrong. 

 

 » An increase in gold production leads ultimately to a rise in prices. «

California Gold Rush (1848–1855): Over 300,000 settlers flooded newly conquered Mexican

territory, seizing lands of 70 indigenous peoples and carrying out the California Genocide.

 

This contention originates from the belief, first, that the discovery of gold mines and the perfection of the technique of gold production are accidental and, secondly, that every discovery of new gold mines and of technical inventions in the sphere of gold production brings about an increase in the latter. However great may be the creative element in these technical inventions and the significance of chance in these discoveries, yet they are not entirely accidental. Still less accidental—and this is the main point—are the fluctuations in gold production itself. 

 

These fluctuations are by no means simply a function of the activity of inventors and of the discoveries of new gold mines. On the contrary, the intensity of inventors’ and explorers’ activity and the application of technical improvement in the sphere of gold production, as well as the resulting increase of the latter, depend upon other, more general causes. The dependence of gold production upon technical inventions and discoveries of new gold mines is only secondary and derived.

» Although gold is a generally recognized embodiment of value, it is only a commodity. «
Grasberg Mine, operated by PT Freeport Indonesia, is one of the largest global gold

and copper reserves, producing 1.7M oz gold, 6M oz silver, and 1.5B lbs copper in 2023.

 

Although gold is a generally recognized embodiment of value and, therefore, is generally desired, it is only a commodity. And like every commodity it has a cost of production. But if this be true, then gold production—even in newly discovered mines—can increase significantly only if it becomes more profitable, i.e., if the relation of the value of the gold itself to its cost of production (and this is ultimately the prices of other commodities) becomes more favorable. If this relation is unfavorable, even gold mines the richness of which is by no means yet exhausted may be shut down; if it is favorable, on the other hand, even relatively poor mines will be exploited.

When is the relation of the value of gold to that of other commodities most favorable for gold production? We know that commodity prices reach their lowest level toward the end of a long wave. This means that at this time gold has its highest purchasing power, and gold production becomes most favorable. This can be illustrated by the figures in Table 2.

Table 2.— Selected Statistics of Gold Mining in the Transvaal, 1890–1913.

Gold production, as can be seen from these figures, becomes more profitable as we approach a low point in the price level and a high point in the purchasing power of gold (1895 and the following years). It is clear, furthermore, that the stimulus to increased gold production necessarily becomes stronger the further a long wave declines. We, therefore, can suppose theoretically that gold production must in general increase most markedly when the wave falls most sharply, and vice versa.

» Gold production must in general increase most markedly when the wave falls most sharply, and vice versa. «

Wangu Gold Deposit, 2024: China discovered one of the world’s largest gold deposit

in Hunan, with over 1,000 tons valued at $83B, located 19 kilometers underground.

 

In reality, however, the connection is not as simple as this but becomes more complicated, mainly just because of the effect of the changes in the technique of gold production and the discovery of new mines. It seems to us, indeed, that even improvements in technique and new gold discoveries obey the same fundamental law as does gold production itself, with more or less regularity in timing. Improvements in the technique of gold production and the discovery of new gold mines actually do bring about a lowering in the cost of production of gold; they influence the relation of these costs to the value of gold, and consequently the extent of gold production. 

 

» Improvements in the technique of gold production actually do bring about a lowering in the cost of production of gold. «

Kumtor Gold Mine, Kyrgyzstan, 2025: Nationalized in 2021, one of Central Asia’s largest gold reserves, 

began underground mining, projected to add 147 metric tons of gold to state reserves over 17 years.

 

But then it is obvious that exactly at the time when the relation of the value of gold to its cost becomes more unfavorable than theretofore, the need for technical improvements in gold mining and for the discovery of new mines necessarily becomes more urgent and thus stimulates research in this field. 

 

» Gold production is subordinate to the rhythm of the long waves. «

Muruntau Gold Mine, Uzbekistan, 2025: Holds the world’s largest gold reserves, one of the largest open-pit

gold mines, ranks second in global production, producing 2M+ oz annually, expected to operate for decades.

 

There is, of course, a time-lag, until this urgent necessity, though already recognized, leads to positive success. In reality, therefore, gold discoveries and technical improvements in gold mining will reach their peak only when the long wave has already passed its peak, i.e., perhaps in the middle of the downswing. The available facts confirm this supposition. In the period after the 1870’s, the following gold discoveries were made: 1881 in Alaska, 1884 in the Transvaal, 1887 in West Australia, 1890 in Colorado, 1894 in Mexico, 1896 in the Klondike. The inventions in the field of gold-mining technique, and especially the most important ones of this period (the inventions for the treatment of ore), were also made during the 1880’s, as is well known.

» The increase in gold production takes place somewhat earlier than at the end of the downswing of the long wave. «

Lafigue Gold Mine, Ivory Coast, began production in August 2024, targeting 200,000 oz gold annually over 13+ years.

  

Gold discoveries and technical improvements, if they occur, will naturally influence gold production. They can have the effect that the increase in gold production takes place somewhat earlier than at the end of the downswing of the long wave. They also can assist the expansion of gold production, once that limit is reached. This is precisely what happens in reality. Especially after the decline in the 1870’s, a persistent, though admittedly slender, increase in gold production begins about the year 1883, whereas, in spite of the disturbing influences of discoveries and inventions, the upswing really begins only after gold has reached its greatest purchasing power; and the increased production is due not only to the newly discovered gold fields but in a considerable degree also to the old ones. This is illustrated by the figures in Table 3.

Table 3.— Gold Production, 1890–1900 (Unit: thousand ounces).

From the foregoing one may conclude, it seems to us, that gold production, even though its increase can be a condition for an advance in commodity prices and for a general upswing in economic activity, is yet subordinate to the rhythm of the long waves and consequently cannot be regarded as a causal and random factor that brings about these movements from the outside.

 

Quoted from:
Nikolai Kondratieff (1926)  - The Long Waves in Economic Life.

 

 

See also: 

Ahmed Farghaly (October 6, 2025) - High Inflation: We are in Kondratieff's "Summer of Summer". 

 

 » Since the Kondratieff wave was not a transverse wave, meaning the wavelength varied, this tends to imply we may see the “real” high in commodity prices (adjusted for inflation) form in line with the ECM in 2032. This is by no means a straight, linear progression. There will be booms and busts along the way. Therefore, that is when we will see the final REAL high in gold, agriculturals, metals, etc. «   Martin Armstrong, March 16, 2013.

  There is NO STORE OF VALUE because everything rises and falls.