Europe remains mired in a strategic void, blissfully ignorant of the tectonic shift occurring in the Arctic. While Brussels clings to the polite illusions of sovereignty, the US is preparing to treat Greenland not as a protected territory, but as a hostile takeover target. This is not simply a failure of diplomacy; it's the total surrender to the reality of a new Arctic order where Danish and European 'soft power' is being systematically outbid by US capital and sheer military power.
» Greenland as a dowry payment. «
Yet, US ambitions in the West—Greenland, Iceland, Faroe Islands, and Canada—are merely one jaw of a tightening pincer in the new Arctic scramble. To the East, anchoring the northwestern edge of the Barents Sea, lies NATO member Norway’s Svalbard archipelago—a territory Russia may well "need" soon for its own strategic security interests and to protect her Northern Sea Route (NSR).
» Significant financial incentives. «
» Simple diplomatic solution. «
However, there are multiple reasons to believe that Greenland will see a boom, regardless of who "owns" it. The most immediate evidence is the stock price of the Bank of Greenland, which has surged 33% in the past four days. This rally suggests that markets increasingly believe the US may offer the country's 50,000 citizens significant financial incentives to sway them toward a US alignment.
Looking at the biggest picture, investors are chasing geopolitical hedges and front-running a global race to stockpile energy and materials. While Venezuela holds 17% of proven global oil reserves (300bn barrels), the Arctic contains 13% of the world's oil and 30% of its natural gas. Furthermore, a US flip from exceptionalism to expansionism presents a strong case for a contrarian US dollar long.