The latest developments indicate that the US war on Iran has entered a temporary pause, with no major events reported in the days following the Islamabad negotiations. This lull, occurring approximately four to five days after the talks, suggests the ceasefire functions as a strategic reset rather than a permanent resolution.
» On the home front in the US, Trump has asked for $1.5 trillion
in next year's Pentagon budget, and he will probably get it. «
Ceasefire Functions as a Strategic Reset and Preparation for a Prolonged War of Attrition
The US, having been placed on the defensive during the active phase, is using the interval to reposition forces, reassess tactics, and prepare for the next phase of operations. Behind-the-scenes movements include the Indonesian Defense Minister's visit to Washington, and the signing of an agreement granting US access to Indonesian airspace. This cooperation advances US influence over the Strait of Malacca, the world's largest maritime chokepoint and the route for roughly 80 percent of China's oil imports. » Do you think Scott Bessent wants oil prices to fall? To crash? Maybe down to $20 a barrel? Do you think the energy giants would be happy with that? No, they would be furious because the cost of production in the US is around $30 a barrel. Do you think Bessent hasn’t thought about this? Of course, he has. He likely predicts, just as I do, that oil prices could rise to $150 a barrel. That’s why I said Bessent shouldn’t have made these statements public—they act as a warning signal about a potential US military operation. It suggests that the US might be preparing to take action against Iran and, in doing so, potentially shut down the entire Persian Gulf. « Lu QiYuan, 2024.
Such control would counter Iranian dominance in the Strait of Hormuz and could disrupt East Asian economies if access were restricted. Further reinforcement comes from the deployment of the aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush, accompanied by approximately 10,000 Marines, raising total US troop strength in the theater to 60,000 and signaling readiness for potential ground operations. Domestically, President Trump has requested a $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget for the coming fiscal year, automatic draft registration for young men begins in December, and major automakers have been directed to initiate war-munitions production.
These steps indicate preparation for a prolonged war of attrition. Complementing this posture, the announced naval blockade focuses on the Indian Ocean, avoiding direct exposure to Iranian missiles near the Strait of Hormuz while effectively enforcing a global embargo on vessels deemed to support Iran, including Russian 'shadow-fleet tankers' and Chinese shipping. The conflict is thereby expanding into a worldwide naval confrontation centered on energy and trade access.
These steps indicate preparation for a prolonged war of attrition. Complementing this posture, the announced naval blockade focuses on the Indian Ocean, avoiding direct exposure to Iranian missiles near the Strait of Hormuz while effectively enforcing a global embargo on vessels deemed to support Iran, including Russian 'shadow-fleet tankers' and Chinese shipping. The conflict is thereby expanding into a worldwide naval confrontation centered on energy and trade access.
Three Competing Models for the Future International Order
The unfolding events point toward three distinct and competing models for the future international order: (1) The Technate: Focused on North America; (2) Pax Judaica: Focused on the Levant and Israel; and (3) The Third Rome: Alexander Dugin's model, where Moscow unites the Eurasian continent to combat secular materialism.Russia is positioned within the expanding naval confrontation through its shadow-fleet tankers, which fall under the scope of the US global blockade. The broader context of energy-access competition places additional pressure on European and Eurasian supply lines, though specific Russian responses remain tied to the ongoing US commitments in the Iran theater.
The Technate Model
The broader US strategy aligns with the Technate of America concept, a 1930s proposal for transforming the US into a self-sufficient continental fortress governed by technocratic principles. This model envisioned a unified territory incorporating Canada, Mexico, Greenland, Colombia, and Venezuela, managed through data-driven decision-making by engineers and scientists rather than traditional democratic or financial systems. Recent US actions reflect elements of this vision. Venezuela has been positioned as a primary US proxy in South America, with the Trump administration's National Security Strategy treating the entire Western Hemisphere as US territory—a modern corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. » On top of that, there's an additional strategy: The US could swiftly vassalize Mexico, rapidly industrialize it, and use it to complete a North American internal economic circulation. This would be the only way the US could successfully reindustrialize. Essentially, the US would turn Mexico into an economic vassal, replacing China in its supply chain. In fact, the most direct and simplest way for the US to reindustrialize would be to militarily occupy Mexico and use it as a substitute for China in its economic system. « Lu QiYuan, 2024.
This framework prioritizes access to Venezuelan oil and the lithium triangle critical for advanced technologies. Related initiatives include discussions on annexing Greenland, pressure on Canada, potential special-forces operations against Mexican cartels, an embargo on Cuba, and indications of possible military action against Cuba in the coming month. President Trump has consistently advocated monetizing US naval power by imposing tariffs on maritime trade instead of providing unrestricted protection.
» Venezuela remains a major obsession for the US. The US is expected to escalate sanctions and covert actions to oust the Maduro government in order to gain access to the world's largest reserves of hydrocarbons, as well as to gold, bauxite, iron ore, uranium, diamonds, and rare-earth elements. Bolivia, which has the world's largest lithium reserves and is rich in natural gas, tin, silver, and copper, will be treated in a similar fashion by the US. Washington think tanks still consider Brazil a "swing state," and controlling the policies of South America's industrial giant remains central to US efforts to limit and sabotage BRICS in the region. « Pepe Escobar, 2024.
These policies echo the Technate's emphasis on resource security, onshoring manufacturing, and continental self-sufficiency. The nations involved in recent US disputes—Canada, Greenland, Nicaragua, Honduras, Cuba, Venezuela, Colombia, and Mexico—correspond precisely to the geographic scope outlined in the original Technate map. Elon Musk has expressed support for aspects of this framework; his grandfather was an early proponent of the movement.
Elite Civil War and Internal Tensions
The current global instability stems from an intensifying internal contest within the US between nationalist and globalist factions. Opposition to Trump's strategy is anticipated from entrenched globalist elements, including the City of London and Wall Street, which continue to influence the European Union, NATO, and segments of the US deep state. These actors may respond with economic sabotage, engineered recessions, and organized anti-war protests directed at the national draft.
Historian Peter Turchin's analysis of elite overproduction provides context: empires decline when excess elites act as societal parasites, and the US now confronts precisely such dynamics. Emerging technology and artificial-intelligence leaders from Silicon Valley are challenging the traditional financial elite amid unprecedented levels of debt and political polarization. This domestic clash of political factions underscores the risk of extended internal conflict within the US. Comparable nationalist-globalist divides are evident in China, Russia, and Europe.
Historian Peter Turchin's analysis of elite overproduction provides context: empires decline when excess elites act as societal parasites, and the US now confronts precisely such dynamics. Emerging technology and artificial-intelligence leaders from Silicon Valley are challenging the traditional financial elite amid unprecedented levels of debt and political polarization. This domestic clash of political factions underscores the risk of extended internal conflict within the US. Comparable nationalist-globalist divides are evident in China, Russia, and Europe.
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