U.S. Stocks in 5th strongest and 6th longest Bull Cycle since 1900

The bull market since March 2009 is the 22nd bull cycle since 1900. End of December 2013 it was in its 57th month. This is about the length of the current sunspot cycle 24. The ongoing bull market is now also the 6th longest bull cycle and with a performance of 154% (closing December 31st) the 5th strongest since 1900. 

SoLunar Tidal Forces 2014

[Eastern Standard Time (EST) -0500 UTC]

2013-12-26 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-01-01 (Wed) = SuperNewMoon = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-01-04 (Sat) = Earth @ Perihelion

2014-01-07 (Tue) = 1st Quarter

2014-01-09 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-01-15 (Wed) = Full Moon + Moon @ Apogee

2014-01-16 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-01-23 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-01-24 (Fri) = 3rd Quarter

2014-01-30 (Thu) = SuperNewMoon = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-02-06 (Thu) = 1st Quarter + Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-02-12 (Wed) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-02-14 (Fri) = Full Moon

2014-02-20 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-02-22 (Sat) = 3rd Quarter

2014-02-27 (Thu) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-03-01 (Sat) = New Moon

2014-03-06 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-03-08 (Sat) = 1st Quarter

2014-03-11 (Tue) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-03-16 (Sun) = Full Moon

2014-03-20 (Thu) = Equinox + Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-03-23 (Sun) = 3rd Quarter

2014-03-27 (Thu) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-03-30 (Sun) = New Moon

2014-04-03 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-04-07 (Mon) = 1st Quarter

2014-04-08 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-04-15 (Tue) = Full Moon = Lunar Eclipse

2014-04-16 (Wed) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-04-22 (Tue) = 3rd Quarter + Moon @ Perigee

2014-04-23 (Wed) = Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-04-29 (Tue) = New Moon = Solar Eclipse

2014-04-30 (Wed) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-05-06 (Tue) = 1st Quarter + Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-05-13 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-05-14 (Wed) = Full Moon

2014-05-18 (Sun) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-05-21 (Wed) = 3rd Quarter

2014-05-26 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-05-28 (Wed) = New Moon

2014-06-02 (Mon) = Moon @ Apogee

2014-06-03 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-06-05 (Thu) = 1st Quarter

2014-06-10 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-06-12 (Thu) = Full Moon

2014-06-14 (Sat) = Moon @ Perigee

2014-06-15 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-06-19 (Thu) = 3rd Quarter

2014-06-21 (Sat) = Solstice

2014-06-22 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-06-27 (Fri) = New Moon

2014-06-30 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-06-30 (Mon) = Moon @ Apogee

2014-07-03 (Thu) = Earth @ Aphelion

2014-07-05 (Sat) = 1st Quarter

2014-07-08 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-07-12 (Sat) = SuperFullMoon = Moon @ Perigee

2014-07-13 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-07-18 (Fri) = 3rd Quarter

2014-07-20 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-07-26 (Sat) = New Moon

2014-07-27 (Sun) = Moon @ Apogee

2014-07-28 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-08-03 (Sun) = 1st Quarter

2014-08-05 (Tue) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-08-10 (Sun) = SuperFullMoon = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-08-17 (Sun) = 3rd Quarter + Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-08-24 (Sun) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-08-25 (Mon) = New Moon

2014-09-02 (Tue) = 1st Quarter + Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-09-07 (Sun) = Moon @ Perigee

2014-09-09 (Tue) = SuperFullMoon = Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-09-14 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-09-15 (Mon) = 3rd Quarter

2014-09-20 (Sat) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-09-23 (Mon) = Equinox

2014-09-24 (Wed) = New Moon

2014-09-29 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-10-01 (Wed) = 1st Quarter

2014-10-06 (Mon) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-10-08 (Wed) = Full Moon = Lunar Eclipse

2014-10-13 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-10-15 (Wed) = 3rd Quarter

2014-10-18 (Sat) = Moon @ Apogee + Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-10-23 (Thu) = New Moon = Solar Eclipse

2014-10-26 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-10-30 (Thu) = 1st Quarter

2014-11-02 (Sun) = Moon @ Perigee

2014-11-03 (Mon) = Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-11-06 (Thu) = Full Moon

2014-11-09 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-11-14 (Fri) = 3rd Quarter + Moon @ Apogee

2014-11-15 (Sat) = Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-11-21 (Fri) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-11-22 (Sat) = New Moon

2014-11-28 (Fri) = Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-11-29 (Sat) = 1st Quarter

2014-12-06 (Sat) = Full Moon

2014-12-07 (Sun) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-12-12 (Fri) = Moon @ Apogee

2014-12-13 (Sat) = Tidal Force @ MIN

2014-12-14 (Sun) = 3rd Quarter

2014-12-18 (Thu) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2014-12-21 (Sun) = New Moon + Solstice

2014-12-24 (Wed) = Moon @ Perigee + Tidal Force @ MAX

2014-12-28 (Sun) = 1st Quarter

2015-01-02 (Fri) = Tidal Force @ Zero

2015-01-04 (Sun) = Full Moon + Earth @ Perihelion

See also HERE

Sunspot Cycle 24: "None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle"

Conventional wisdom holds that solar activity swings back and forth like a simple pendulum.  At one end of the cycle, there is a quiet time with few sunspots and flares. At the other end, Solar Maximum brings high sunspot numbers and solar storms. It’s a regular rhythm that repeats every 11 years. 

Reality, however, is more complicated. Astronomers have been counting sunspots for centuries, and they have seen that the solar cycle is not perfectly regular. For one thing, the back-and-forth swing in sunspot counts can take anywhere from 10 to 13 years to complete; also, the amplitude of the cycle varies. Some solar maxima are very weak, others very strong (HERE). 

But "none of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle [as the sunspot cycle 24]", said Dr. Leif Svalgaard of Stanford University and other prominent solar scientists at the 2013 Fall Meeting of American Geophysical Union (AGU), held on December 11, 2013 in San Francisco. This solar max is weak, and the overall current cycle conjures up comparisons to the famously feeble Solar Cycle 14 in the early 1900s (see also HERE & HERE).

John Hampson recently expected the "solar cycle 24′s flat top to end by mid-2014", and one of two possibities playing out: "One, equities peak out within the next 6 months, commodities don’t come again, and we thereafter enter the typical post-solar-peak recession (deflationary). Or, two, equities are peaking now and commodities are breaking upwards out of their large consoliation triangles since 2011 to produce a typical late-cyclical final rally and help tip the weak economy into that recession." (see also HERE).

Credits: John Hampson

Credits: Jan Alvestad

 

Credits: Jan Alvestad

Solar Tides & Financial Markets | Al Larson

Astrophysics & Chaos [Mar 30, 1999]

"The Solar Energy System does affect markets. The Sun gives off radiation which varies by about 2 percent. These variations are caused by tidal forces that the revolving planets exert on the gases in the Sun.

These tides cause vortexes in the Sun’s surface leading to solar flares, coronal holes, and magnetic storms. The energy changes from these are carried to Earth on an ionized stream of particles called the Solar Wind.

When the Solar Wind reaches Earth it is deflected around the Earth by the Earth’s magnetic field. 

This creates a magnetosphere around the Earth. At the poles ionized particles can penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere. Changes in the solar radiation cause changes in the voltage in the ionosphere.

This in turn causes changes in the electrical currents flowing through people standing on the Earth. These emotional swings account for about 40 percent of price motion."

 

Al Larson a.k.a. Hanns Hannula [extracted from his "Cash in on Chaos Newsletter" @ www.moneytide.com - more HERE & HERE]

 

Hans Hannula (1991): A Lunar Chaos Theory; p. 14

The Skyscraper Indicator | Excuse me, while I kiss the sky ...

Cycles analyst Edward Dewey (1895-1978) was the chief economics analyst for the US Department of Commerce when he developed the "Skyscraper Indicator" in the 1940s: It correlates human optimism to the number of high-rise buildings under construction. When people are very optimistic, they tend to express their feelings in massive construction projects, especially very tall buildings, because they have a need to build toward the sky! Since this extreme optimism is reached at major market peaks, in the economy, severe economic downturns usually follow; not just declines in real estate prices. 

The world’s current tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai (828 m), nicely illustrates this process: It was built as a monument to the Gulf emirate’s boom in the middle years of last decade and opened in late 2009, just as the emirate plunged into financial crisis. These are the highest buildings in 2013:

World's Tallest Buildings 2013

And these are the tallest buildings currently under construction and expected to be complete before 2020:

Skyscrapers under Construction

It doesn't need a prophet to tell where the next bubbles are about to pop: Of all of the world's skyscrapers under construction, China is home to 53% of them and by 2016 China's highest buildings will exceed the 'One World Trade Center' (417 m) in New York by 200 meters. The boom is on though in mid 2013 the construction of the planned 838 meter Sky City in south-central China was halted by the authorities for not having a building permission. A similar craze for high rise has gripped South Korea and India. India just finished building two skyscrapers and has 14 skyscrapers currently under construction. However, having survived the Arab Spring miraculously, it is this decrepit royal kleptocracy in Saudi Arabia that is now giving thanks to each other by decorating Jeddah with a 1,007 meter high 'Kingdom Tower'.

Let's have a look at what happened during recent high times in different places: The construction of the Taipei 101 (508 m) began in 1999 and was completed in 2004. The duration coincided without the recession in the early 2000s and the tech bubble while in 2010 the completion of the Burj Khalifa coincided with the current global financial crisis. The Asian economic crisis, currency devaluation and speculation in stock and property coincided in 1997-1998 with the completion of the Petronas Towers (452 m), the tallest buildings in the world at the time. Now the Great 18-Year Real Estate Cycle will again be due to peak and pop around 2016. 

World's Tallest Buildings 2020 - Excuse me, while I kiss the sky ...

S&P 500 vs Planets out of Bounds

 Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.

When the declinations of Mercury, Venus and Mars are exceeding the extremes of the Sun's declination (= ± 23.27 degrees geocentric), the events are often correlating with market turns (see also HERE). 

 

20 May 2013- 13 Jun 2013 - Mercury OOB
24 May 2013- 19 Jun 2013 - Venus OOB
29 Jun 2013 - 3 Aug 2013 - Mars OOB
10 Oct 2013 - Dec 2013 - Venus OOB
16 Dec 2013 - 8 Jan 2014 - Mercury OOB

[Eastern Standard Time]

DJIA 2013-2014 vs 1929

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution. For the methodology see HERE

Tom DeMark detected this 2013-2014 analog with 1929. It points to a very important market top on January 14, 2014. However, in a recent interview Tom DeMark was expressing his frustration about his signals not working due to constant FED manipulations. Stan Harley has figured on January 10, 2014 as an important top based on Fibonacci cycles. Based on George Lindsay's techniques, Ed Carlson targets the first half of January as the later of two likely ultimate top dates for this uptrend: "The current LLH interval points to a top on 1/2/14."

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices 2014

In the 1940's Garth Allen - better known as Donald Bradley (1925-1974) - developed the Bradley Siderograph to forecast the financial markets (stocks, bonds, commodities). He assigned numerical values to certain geocentric and heliocentric planetary constellations for every day, and the sum is the geocentric or heliocentric Bradley Siderograph or Bradley Index. Sergey Tarassov believes Donald Bradley's book "Stock Market Prediction" is the best on financial astrology: "He has done an excellent job, especially taking into account the fact that there were no PC in 1940s. First of all he has demonstrated that astrology really works. Second he has made this fact understandable to all people, not for small astrological community only. Each word in this book has some sense in comparison to many modern sources of financial astrology." However, the Bradley Indices do not predict the direction but only turning points within a time window of +/- 4 calendar days. 

[Eastern Standard Time (EST) -0500 UTC]

Geocentric Bradley Index 2014
2013-11-04 (Mon) = High
2013-12-02 (Mon) = @ 0
2014-01-01 (Wed) = Major Low
2014-01-09 (Thu) = High
2014-01-23 (Thu) = Low
2014-02-04 (Tue) = High
2014-02-19 (Wed) = Low
2014-03-21 (Fri) = High
2014-04-04 (Fri) = Low
2014-04-28 (Mon) = High
2014-05-06 (Tue) = Low
2014-05-21 (Tue) = @ 0
2014-06-20 (Fri) = High
2014-06-27 (Fri) = Low
2014-07-15 (Tue) = Major High
2014-07-29 (Tue) = Low
2014-08-05 (Tue) = High
2014-09-10 (Wed) = Low
2014-09-17 (Wed) = High
2014-09-22 (Mon) = @ 0
2014-10-08 (Wed) = Low
2014-10-15 (Wed) = High
2014-11-20 (Thu) = Major Low
2014-12-09 (Tue) = High
2014-12-26 (Fri) = Low
2015-02-16 (Mon) = @ 0
2015-03-06 (Fri) = High
2015-03-11 (Wed) = Low
2015-04-03 (Fri) = High

 

 

Heliocentric Bradley Index 2013
2013-11-01 (Fri) = Major High
2013-12-03 (Tue) = @ 0
2014-01-01 (Wed) = Low
2014-01-07 (Tue) = High
2014-01-23 (Thu) = Major Low
2014-02-25 (Tue) = High
2014-03-07 (Fri) = Low
2014-03-21 (Fri) = High
2014-04-04 (Fri) = Low
2014-04-28 (Mon) = High
2014-05-06 (Tue) = Low
2014-05-21 (Wed) = @ 0
2014-06-20 (Fri) = High
2014-06-27 (Fri) = Low
2014-07-15 (Tue) = Major High
2014-07-29 (Tue) = Low
2014-08-08 (Fri) = High
2014-08-18 (Mon) = Low
2014-08-21 (Thu) = High
2014-09-23 (Tue) = @ 0
2014-10-08 (Wed) = Low
2014-10-15 (Wed) = High
2014-11-21 (Fri) = Major Low
2014-12-09 (Tue) = High
2014-12-26 (Fri) = Low
2015-02-11 (Wed) = @ 0
2015-03-04 (Wed) = High
2015-03-12 (Thu) = Low
2015-04-03 (Fri) = High
2015-04-13 (Mon) = Low
2015-04-24 (Fri) = Major High

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices 2014
2013-11-01 (Fri) = Major High (helio)
2013-11-04 (Mon) = High (geo)
2013-12-02 (Mon) = @ 0 (geo)
2013-12-03 (Tue) = @ 0 (helio)
2014-01-01 (Wed) = Major Low (geo + helio)
2014-01-07 (Tue) = High (helio)
2014-01-09 (Thu) = High (geo)
2014-01-23 (Thu) = Low (geo) + Major Low (helio)
2014-02-04 (Tue) = High (geo)
2014-02-19 (Wed) = Low (geo)
2014-02-25 (Tue) = High (helio)
2014-03-07 (Fri) = Low (helio)
2014-03-21 (Fri) = High (geo + helio)
2014-04-04 (Fri) = Low (geo + helio)
2014-04-28 (Mon) = High (geo + helio)
2014-05-06 (Tue) = Low (geo + helio)
2014-05-21 (Tue) = @ 0 (geo + helio)
2014-06-20 (Fri) = High (geo + helio)
2014-06-27 (Fri) = Low (geo + helio)
2014-07-15 (Tue) = Major High (geo + helio)
2014-07-29 (Tue) = Low (geo + helio)
2014-08-05 (Tue) = High (geo)
2014-08-08 (Fri) = High (helio)
2014-08-18 (Mon) = Low (helio)
2014-08-21 (Thu) = High (helio)
2014-09-10 (Wed) = Low (geo)
2014-09-17 (Wed) = High (geo)
2014-09-22 (Mon) = @ 0 (geo)
2014-09-23 (Tue) = @ 0 (helio)
2014-10-08 (Wed) = Low (geo + helio)
2014-10-15 (Wed) = High (geo + helio)
2014-11-20 (Thu) = Major Low (geo)
2014-11-21 (Fri) = Major Low (helio)
2014-12-09 (Tue) = High (geo + helio)
2014-12-26 (Fri) = Low (geo + helio)
2015-02-11 (Wed) = @ 0 (helio)
2015-02-16 (Mon) = @ 0 (geo)
2015-03-04 (Wed) = High (helio)
2015-03-06 (Fri) = High (geo)
2015-03-11 (Wed) = Low (geo)
2015-03-12 (Thu) = Low (helio)
2015-04-03 (Fri) = High (geo + helio)
2015-04-13 (Mon) = Low (helio)
2015-04-24 (Fri) = Major High (helio)

SPX vs George Bayer's Rule # 1

SPEED OF MERCURY IN GEOCENTRIC LONGITUDE

... Periodically the speed comes to a stand-still. At such times the planet moves from a direct motion into a retrograde motion or from a retrograde to a direct motion ... It is advisable to plot this Mercury speed ... through an entire year and note the effect of such changes. We obtain tops or bottoms ... When the previous movement is down, Wheat must be bought on weakness of the day; if the market moves upward prior to change of Mercury’s speed, short positions must be taken on strength during the day mercury changes its speed.

[George Bayer (1940): Stock and Commodity Traders´ Hand-Book of Trend Determination. Carmel, California; p. 13]

HERE

On Friday the S&P 500 closed on low volume and with the narrowest intra-day trading range since September 27th (more HERE)

Delta Pattern vs German DAX 30

Buy Rosh Hashana (Sep 5-6, 2013) was certainly a good idea this year.
So what about Sell Yom Kippur (Sep 14, 2013)?

Projected Major High = Sep 18-20 

2013-09-18 (Wed) = VEN 0 SAT
2013-09-19 (Thu) = SUN 90 Galactic Center + Full Moon
2013-09-19 (Thu) = MER c.p. MAR + MER 90 JUP
2013-09-19 (Thu) = VEN 180 MAR
2013-09-19 (Thu) = MER 90 JUP
2013-09-20 (Fri) = PLU [D]
2013-09-20 (Fri) = MER par. VEN + MER 90 JUP + MER 90 NEP
2013-09-22 (Sun) = Fall Equinox + Tidal Force @ 0

See also HERE

DJIA 2013 vs 1935 - Update

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution

For the methodology see HERE

Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA (2013 - 2016)

 

HERE

The Cloud Mystery | Henrik Svensmark

Nir Shaviv and Henrik Svensmark (HERE)

Looking at the Milky Way from above, we see four giant spiral arms. Our solar system is currently located within a small armlet called Orion between the two big spiral arms Sagittarius-Carina and Perseus. But it doesn’t stay there. It rotates at a speed of some 830,000 kilometers per hour around the galactic center and does a whole round about every 250 millions years. This rotation period is called one galactic year. That means on average every about 65 million years our solar system moves through one of the major spiral arms of the milky-way. 

The Solar System's passage
through the Milky Way (HERE)

During such a passage the average temperature on Earth is about 5-10°C colder than outside the spiral arms where more clouds can be created and are causing cooler climatic conditions. Within a spiral arm more cosmic rays reach the Earth because there are more super novae in the immediate neighborhood of our solar system. These dying stars are sending out cosmic rays, subatomic particles with enormous energy rushing through the galaxy at almost the speed of light. And some of them shower and bombard the Earth. In our atmosphere the cosmic rays are nuclei for condensation of water vapor and cloud formation. And the clouds reflect the sunlight and cool the Earth.

The Sun of course also plays an important role in the formation of clouds: When there are a lot of sunspots, the magnetic fields of the Sun are emitting more charged particles, called the solar wind. The solar wind fights and neutralizes the cosmic rays and controls how many of them reach the Earth. During the 20th century the magnetic activity of the Sun has almost doubled. As a result fewer cosmic rays reach the Earth, the cloud cover became thinner and the Earth’s climate warmer. 

Nir Shaviv (HERE)

A ‘lazy’ Sun would produce less magnetic activity, less solar wind and more cosmic rays would reach the Earth’s atmosphere able to build up clouds there and to cool the planet’s climate down: The Sun controls the Earth’s cloudiness. The climate is controlled by the clouds. The clouds are controlled by cosmic rays. And the cosmic rays are controlled by the Sun.

Sources: Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen, astrophysicists, Danish National Space Institute (DTU Space), Copenhagen | Nir Shaviv, astronomer,  Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem | Jan Veizer, geologist, Department of  Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa and Institute for Geology, Mineralogy and Geophysics, Bochum Ruhr University | Jasper Kirkby (2011): The CLOUD experiment at CERN [65 m] | Lars Oxfeld Mortensen (2007): The Cloud Mystery - Henrik Svensmark on Climate Change [53 m] | Martin Durkin (2007): The Great Global Warming Swindle [76 m]