Time ▾ Price ▴ Research: Quarterly Market Maker Cycle

Showing posts with label Quarterly Market Maker Cycle. Show all posts

Monday, March 23, 2026

Gold and Silver: Final Repricing Before Breakout | Dieter Lüscher

Dieter Lüscher of Premium Strategy Partners AG, one of Switzerland’s most recognized wealth managers, has issued a stark and timely warning on gold and silver. Known for managing ultra-high-net-worth portfolios and repeatedly ranked among the best in conservative risk strategies, Lüscher argues that the current price weakness is not what it appears. In his latest interview, he outlines a scenario that suggests the market may be approaching a turning point.

Silver’s multi-decade breakout above $50 is the linchpin. Holding this level confirms the long-term bullish thesis.

» In Gold the sell-off that started from 5,598 levels is correcting the last parabolic phase of the uptrend. Previous resistance at 4,550 levels becomes the new support. Long-term uptrend is intact. In the short-term we are seeing consolidation and a drop in volatility. A risk off environment in Global Markets can result in a correction in Gold given its liquidity and appreciation over the past couple of months. It can be used as a source of cash. «
Aksel Kibar, March 21, 2026.

Lüscher’s core message is that the current weakness may be a structurally driven dislocation rather than a reflection of deteriorating fundamentals. If his assessment holds, the present environment could represent a transitional phase before stronger upward momentum resumes, potentially alongside a longer-term shift in global pricing influence.

The Quarter-End Dynamic

According to Lüscher, commercial banks and short-position holders continue to carry substantial exposure in the futures and options markets, with a significant expiry window just days away. The incentive structure is straightforward: downward pressure into expiry maximizes the likelihood that these options expire out of the money, allowing institutions to retain premium income. While this pattern has repeated for over a decade, Lüscher suggests the current setup may represent a late-stage iteration rather than a routine cycle.

The latest CFTC COT report details an increase of 3,779 gold short contracts by non-commercial traders (hedge funds), representing 377,900 ounces or approximately $1.55 billion in new downside exposure. This positioning coincided with a 72-hour gold price decline from $4,520 to $4,100. Total hedge fund short exposure currently stands at 56,092 contracts (5.61 million ounces), valued at $23 billion. Market structure remains heavily leveraged, with large speculators holding 215,961 long positions against 284,832 commercial short positions. This data suggests price volatility is driven by technical positioning and liquidity pressure rather than fundamental shifts.

A Potential Near-Term Bottom

Lüscher indicates that the market could be nearing a short-term bottom within days. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, he emphasizes that recent price action appears largely technical, driven more by derivatives positioning than by fundamental demand. Once the expiry window closes, he expects underlying demand dynamics to reassert themselves, potentially leading to a sharp reversal.

Shifting Pricing Power Toward Asia

Structural changes in global pricing mechanisms are also accelerating. India is moving toward pricing gold and silver ETFs based on domestic spot benchmarks rather than traditional London references, while China continues to promote yuan-denominated gold pricing in global markets. At the same time, inventory trends highlight divergence: Western exchange stocks have been declining, while Asian market dynamics are becoming increasingly influential.

» Physical metal carries zero counterparty risk—exactly what investors and nations now demand. Wars
and exploding debt force massive new money printing that only gold and silver can truly absorb. «

» Expect a low in Gold at the end of April near $3,600-3,700. «

Bill Sarubbi, March 20, 2026.

Focus on price action, patterns, and cycles.

The Physical Market Tightens

On the supply side, Lüscher points to increasing fragmentation in silver distribution, with more output moving directly from mines to industrial users, bypassing traditional exchanges. This reflects a broader shift toward physical ownership, where counterparty risk is minimized—an increasingly important consideration amid rising geopolitical and financial uncertainty. Expanding fiscal deficits and monetary pressures further reinforce the role of precious metals as absorbers of excess liquidity.

Reference:

Dieter Lüscher (March 20, 2026) - This is why gold is at its bottom now. (DESHALB ist Gold JETZT am Tiefpunkt.) (video)

Wednesday, March 27, 2024

ICT Silver Bullet Strategy | Darya Filipenka

The ICT Silver Bullet Strategy is a time-based, algorithmic trading model applicable across asset classes. For the 10 AM Silver Bullet setup, concentrate on the 10:00–11:00 AM window. Use fair value gaps in conjunction with Fibonacci levels to refine entries and adjust stop placement. Target a minimum 3R risk-to-reward ratio, and close all positions by 11:00 AM to optimize profit capture while limiting exposure to market uncertainty.

3:00 AM - 4:00 AM New York Time

► A Silver Bullet trade setup begins with a clear directional move, either upward or downward, establishing initial market intent. Following this move, a Fair Value Gap (FVG) is formed—this imbalance is a key component of the setup and serves as the primary area of interest.

► Next, look for a Market Structure Shift (MSS) occurring after liquidity has been taken. An MSS represents a decisive reversal in price delivery, where the market shifts from its prior direction to the opposite. This typically happens when price sweeps previous short-term highs or lows within a trend. For validity, the shift should be impulsive and accompanied by displacement, signaling strong intent from institutional participants.
► Displacement refers to a rapid and forceful price move driven by significant capital, often leaving behind additional Fair Value Gaps. This confirms momentum and reinforces the likelihood of a directional change.
► Entry is executed within the identified Fair Value Gap, aligning with the new directional bias established by the MSS and displacement.
► For targets, focus on liquidity pools such as Asian session highs/lows or higher timeframe premium and discount levels. These areas provide logical exit points where price is likely to rebalance or react.

10:00 AM - 11:00 AM New York Time

Begin by referencing the previous New York PM session as your primary contextual anchor. During the first 30 minutes after the 9:30 AM market open, assess whether price is trading near that PM range. If price is not in proximity, shift focus to the London Session raid (2:00–5:00 AM, visible on the ETH chart). This comparison helps establish whether the market is drawing toward prior liquidity or operating in a different context.

Within that initial 30-minute window, determine where price stands relative to both the New York PM session and the London session. The market may trend higher, lower, or consolidate—this phase is observational. The actionable setup begins with displacement occurring between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM EST, which forms the foundation of the Silver Bullet model.

During the 10:00–11:00 AM window:

► Identify a clear, untapped liquidity pool (e.g., equal highs/lows, session highs/lows).
Wait for displacement on lower timeframes (1-, 3-, or 5-minute charts) moving toward that liquidity.
Locate a Fair Value Gap (FVG) formed opposite the direction of the targeted liquidity pool.
Allow price to retrace into the FVG, then enter as price reprices away from it, continuing toward the liquidity target.
► Once a valid Market Structure Shift (MSS) is confirmed, refine the entry using an Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) framework. Draw a Fibonacci retracement from the swing low to swing high (for bullish setups) or swing high to swing low (for bearish setups). The optimal entry typically aligns around the 62% retracement level.

For trade management:

► First target: -27% Fibonacci extension
► Second target: -62% Fibonacci extension

This approach aligns entry precision with institutional order flow while structuring exits around logical liquidity objectives.

2:00 PM - 3:00 PM New York Time

The afternoon Silver Bullet framework begins by focusing on the morning and lunch trading sessions. The objective is to identify AM Session Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) and Sell Side Liquidity (SSL), or Lunch session BSL/SSL, as price transitions into the PM session (1:30 PM–4:00 PM). These liquidity pools establish the context for a potential reversal, with the trade targeting the opposing side of the AM or lunch liquidity.

On Fridays, this model can align with the T.G.I.F. setup, where the target is typically 20–30% of the weekly range, reflecting end-of-week rebalancing behavior.

The execution phase occurs between 2:00 PM and 3:00 PM EST:

► Wait for clear displacement, signaling institutional intent and setting up the Silver Bullet condition.
► Identify a well-defined, untapped liquidity pool, prioritizing levels formed during the AM and lunch sessions.
► Locate a Fair Value Gap (FVG) created by the displacement move.
► Allow price to retrace into the FVG, then enter as price exits the imbalance, moving toward the targeted liquidity.

As with the morning model, confirmation comes from a valid Market Structure Shift (MSS) following a liquidity sweep. Typically, the AM session or NY lunch BSL/SSL acts as the liquidity that has been taken, after which displacement and MSS provide the directional bias for the trade.