Showing posts with label Market Structure Shift. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market Structure Shift. Show all posts

Saturday, August 1, 2026

ICT Daily Bias Derived from the Dealing Range | Michael J. Huddleston

Daily Bias is the anticipated direction of the market for the next day. A Bullish Bias is established when the market retraces into equilibrium or a short-term discount level, suggesting a high likelihood that the price will move higher. A Bearish Bias is established when the market retraces into equilibrium or a short-term premium level, suggesting a high likelihood that the price will move lower.

Dealing Range & Premium/Discount Identification: The primary range is measured from the Swing High to the Swing Low. Anything above the 50% line (0.5 equilibrium) is classified as a Premium Zone, everything below as Discount Zone.
Three-Candle Swing High/Low: A valid swing high / low consists of a central candle (Candle 2) whose high/low is higher/lower than both the candle to its left (Candle 1) and the candle to its right (Candle 3), which constitutes a Market Structure Shift (MSS or Change of Character (ChoCh)).
Equilibrium & Mean Threshold: The 50% retracement level of either the dealing range or an order block body defines the exact boundary where price seeks institutional re-pricing before continuing down into lower discount arrays.
Deriving the Daily Bias from the Dealing Range also relates to the concepts of

This is the core framework for determining bias: once price touches equilibrium or short-term discount, anticipate a market structure shift and higher/lower prices over the next one to two days. Even if the immediate next day closes down/up or consolidates, the overall bullish/bearish target remains valid. 
 
 
S&P 500 ranging within the June 2-9 Daily Dealing Range.

QQQ 1-Hour Dealing Range. 
 
QQQ 5-Minute Dealing Range. 
 
USDMXN Quarterly Dealing Range. 
 
Break of Market Structure (BMS) or BoS (Break of Structure) = trend continuation: every new higher high/lower low breaking previous structural highs/lows is BMS/BoS. Change of Character (CHoCH) = first warning sign that trend may be reversing when price breaks through recent swing high/low. Shift in Market Structure (SMS) = confirmation of trend reversal following CHoCH. 
See also: