S&P 500 October Performance in Midterm Election Years

 

S&P 500 Cycle Composite for October 2026 (equal weight on One-Year Seasonal Cycle: 98 years; 

Four-Year Presidential Cycle — Midterm Year: 24 years; Decennial Cycle — years ending in 6: 9 years.)

 

S&P 500 Cycle Composite Components for October 2026: Composite (strong solid blue), Four-Year Presidential Cycle

— Midterm Year (red), Decennial Cycle — Years Ending in 6 (gold), One-Year Seasonality All Years (green).

 

S&P 500 Cycle Composite for Q4 2026.

 

S&P 500 (black daily bars), Cycle Composite for 2026 (strong solid blue), Four-Year Presidential Cycle — Midterm Year (red),

Decennial Cycle — years ending in 6 (gold), All Years (green).

 

S&P 500 (black daily bars) vs. September 2026 All Composite Components.  
 

S&P 500 2026 Performance vs. Composite Cycle and Components.

 

See also:

TPR (September 24, 2026) - Seasonality vs. Cycles: October is the Midterm Sweet Spot—If the Switch Holds.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 29, 2026) - October's Volatility and the Historical Surge That Follows. 

Nicholas D. Savino (October 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for October 2026.