The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished with bullish days present throughout April. Traders and investors appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.
As you can see in the above chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and post-election years since 1950, April has historically been nearly perfect with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In post-election years, April does tend to open on the soft side, but the early dip has historically been shallow and brief.
Since 1950, April has shown steady market gains from the first trading day to the last, with occasional
minor dips. In post-election years, April starts weaker, but the dip is brief and shallow.
As you can see in the above chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and post-election years since 1950, April has historically been nearly perfect with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In post-election years, April does tend to open on the soft side, but the early dip has historically been shallow and brief.
In post-election years, April remains a top performing month ranking second best for DJIA and S&P 500, and third best for NASDAQ. Average gains since 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500 are comparable to all years, but notably improve for NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. NASDAQ’s three post-election year April declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005.
Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 27, 2025) - Taxes Schmaxes – April Strong Open to Close – Deadline Impact Fades.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2025) - April is the second-best month for S&P 500 and DJIA.
Other Bullish Scenarios:
Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%.
Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).
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Next 20-day Hurst cycle due to bottom between the 7th and 9th of April (±).
Bearish Scenarios:
Potential opportunity shorting the S&P 500 in
the next major downturn over the coming weeks.
the next major downturn over the coming weeks.
See also: