The S&P 500 is up 68% over the 24-month period from October 2022 to October 2024. Since 1932, the median bull cycle has gained 73% over a 32-month span. We have counted 23 bull cycles since 1932. Of the 14 cycles that reached their two-year anniversary, six peaked in year three (43% of the time): 1953-1956, 1966-1968, 1970-1973, 1978-1980, 1987-1990, and 2016-2018.
The cyclical advance since October 2022 has reached its minimum targets, but is likely to extend further based on historical patterns. The average year-3 draw-up for all cases since 1949 (using similar labeling) is 12%, with a standard deviation of 9%, suggesting a peak for the S&P 500 of roughly 6,000 to 7,000 over the next eleven months. This is not a forecast, and it's somewhat unremarkable, but it may be useful for shaping expectations.
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