Showing posts with label Russell Licklider. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russell Licklider. Show all posts

Thursday, May 21, 2026

The 32-Day Cycle: High-Accuracy Edge in S&P 500 First-Hour Structure

The 32-calendar-day cycle is a highly stable, repeating phenomenon observed in the S&P 500 cash index (SPX), where the establishment of the session high or low during the first 60 minutes (9:30–10:30 a.m. EST/EDT) of the New York regular trading session follows a precise pattern of "Early Highs" and "Early Lows." 
 
Projected Early Highs and Early Lows, Expected Daily Bias, and Day-of-Week notes for the SPX (May and June 2026). 
 
Empirically derived from Jeffrey Tennant’s daily forecasts and aligned with structured short-term cycles such as Russell Licklider's "Inversion-Free 32-Day Delta Solution" approach, this calendar-day cycle (not trading days) repeats with exceptional 99.3% accuracy (136 out of 137 valid pairs) across a 13-month sample from late April 2025 to May 2026.
 
Early Low days exhibit a strong bullish bias, with Close > Open occurring in 69.5% of cases (average +0.34%). Early High days show only a mild negative/neutral bias (average -0.09%). The edge is significantly amplified on specific weekdays: Monday Early Low stands out as the highest-conviction setup, delivering a 74.1% bullish close rate (28 occurrences), average +0.45% gain, and the strongest asymmetry in the dataset. In contrast, Friday Early High represents the clearest cautionary signal (41% bullish, average -0.17%).
 
 Early Low Days Performance by Weekday, and
Early High Days Performance by Weekday (Close > Open).
Early Low has the strongest bullish edge on Mondays (74.1% positive days).
Early High on Fridays shows the clearest negative bias (only 41% bullish days, largest average loss).
This robust, research-backed cycle—validated through autocorrelation, direct sequence matching, and daily OHLC backtesting—provides a powerful, forward-projectable filter. Projecting a 32-calendar-day sequence from established cyclic anchors allows traders to anticipate high-probability intraday structures and define daily directional bias. This cyclical framework provides a systematic statistical edge, particularly for intraday and short-term traders.