Top 2026 DJIA Analog Composite Points to October Low | @Fiorente2

@Fiorente2 points out that the season is approaching when, historically, many of the year's largest market declines have already occurred—including 1929, 1987, 1997, 1978, and 1979. The current DJIA cycle most closely resembles the 1890, 1898, and 1978 midterm analogs, whose red composite line's turning points have tracked the index with a 0.80 correlation over the past year. 

DJIA: 1890–1898–1978 Analog Composite with Projected Turns.

The blue line of his heliocentric Index of Cyclical Variation shows a similar pattern, although it does not correlate with the DJIA's price level. Both cycles suggests a potential low around October 2026, followed by a short-lived rebound, before a broader decline resumes into 2027 and potentially reaches a 5-year low in October–November 2027.

Reference:
@Fiorente2 (September 14, 2026) - The Dow blinks first. Will the others follow?

See also:
@Fiorente2 (April 20, 2026) - DJIA 2026 vs Top Three Midterm Correlated Years Since 1886.

André Barbault's Cyclic Index and S&P 500 Behavior | Sergey Tarassov

André Barbault's Index of Cyclical Variations or Cyclic Index measures the balance between waxing and waning angular separations among planets, analogous to lunar phases—where increasing (waxing) angles are associated with more optimistic conditions and decreasing (waning) angles with more pessimistic conditions. The same principle is extended across all planetary angles, with heliocentric configurations preferred.

  

Heliocentric Cyclic Index vs. S&P 500.

Statistical analysis indicates that this index accounts for approximately 6.4% of S&P 500 price variation, representing a modest but notable explanatory contribution for a single indicator. Recent periods show that the index has maintained a consistent relationship with market movements. Further refinement, including the use of neural network methods, may enhance its ability to model optimistic and pessimistic market regimes.

Reference:
Sergey Tarassov (June 22, 2026) - Index of Cyclical Variations and S&P 500 Behavior.