S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle

 Current 18-Month Cycle in the S&P 500 (weekly bars, October 2023 to March 2025) and retracement levels.

 

The current 18-month cycle began in October 2023 and is expected to bottom between April and June 2025, likely falling below the August 2024 low and the 50% retracement level. J.M. Hurst's nominal 18-month cycle has an average wavelength of 17.93 months, or 77.98 weeks, or 545 calendar days, which can contract and expand significantly (see table and Hurst chart below). The weekly pattern for March appears to be the X-AMD version, meaning this week should be the month's (re-)accumulation phase (while Martin Armstrong alerted to a "panic cycle").

 

In his latest update, David Hickson expects the current 18-Month Cycle to bottom around May-June, and the current 80-Day Cycle this or next week (CPI, Quad Witching, FOMC Statement; see Hurst chart below). Lately, shorter Hurst cycles in the dollar-priced S&P 500 have been distorted by the significant changes in the EUR/USD valuation.

 

 Note: Hurst's average wavelengths can contract and expand significantly. 

 

David Hickson (March 10, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update. (video)

 

See also:

TPR (March 7, 2025) - The Three Week Cycle, Quarterly Shift, and IPDA Data Ranges.

Robert Miner (2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Parties. 

 The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 26, 2025) - Beware The Ides of March.

ICT Redelivered Rebalanced Premium-Discount Array | Darya Filipenka

A bullish price range is a portion of price action that shows an upward movement, followed by a downward movement, and then another upward movement. This creates a balanced price range where the price action has delivered buy side, sell side, and then buy side again.

 

On the other hand, a bearish price range is a portion of price action that exhibits a downward movement, followed by an upward movement, and then another downward movement. This creates a balanced price range where the price action has delivered sell side, buy side, and then sell side again. 

 

The redelivered rebalanced PD array is depicted with candlesticks, showing the sequence of price moves: up, down, and then up again for a bullish array, and down, up, and then down again for a bearish array. This portion of price action represents a balanced price range.

Imagine the candlestick chart showing this sequence. The first candle goes up, offering buy-side, then goes all the way down to provide sell-side, closing at the bottom. Inside this candle’s wick, we see both buy-side and sell-side. The next candle opens, offering buy-side again, completing the balanced price range. This area of price action is fully balanced.

Now, here comes the interesting part. When there's a balanced price range below a fair value gap, the gap can stay open. This is what we call a breakaway gap. On the other hand, if there's a balanced price range above a gap, it becomes a bearish rebalance redelivered price area, and the gap may not need to be retested.

 

Reference: 

Darya Filipenka @ Twitter/X

 Michael J. Huddleston (2023) - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Immediate Rebalance & Institutional Order Flow. (video)

TTrades (2023) - Discount & Premium - ICT Concepts.